Leader Bias NOT fast lanes.

Wanted to chat about leader bias and whether its fact or fictional.

Leader bias is a complete nonsense!! And even so called expert trainers and jockeys fall into all the time!! Will give a break to some courses like the valley when rail is out to maximum!! It can help a leader if it gets its own way!! But normally no it's as you said a bunch of sheep following each other, a bit like these jockeys walking tracks in the middle of summer?? (Trainers included) they walk up the straight 1/200 mtr and come in armed with all this knowledge? What knowledge? The track is good!! There will b. No difference. Then one or two win down the centre? And we then have a swoopers track. It gets shouted by broadcasters. And all jockeys and trainers then follow like sheep. You then have every horse with a winning chance going to centre!! Percentage says winners will all come down the centre until someone backs there judgment in and takes a shortcut on a good chance! Just the way the partiapants play the game in the industry!! No one has much judgement.

Most bias is lane related. When the inside is faster then leaders do tend to dominate. There are occasions where there is leader bias that is not lane related, but not as common.

Straight arrow wrote: Leader bias is a complete nonsense!! And even so called expert trainers and jockeys fall into all the time!! Will give a break to some courses like the valley when rail is out to maximum!! It can help a leader if it gets its own way!! But normally no it's as you said a bunch of sheep following each other, a bit like these jockeys walking tracks in the middle of summer?? (Trainers included) they walk up the straight 1/200 mtr and come in armed with all this knowledge? What knowledge? The track is good!! There will b. No difference. Then one or two win down the centre? And we then have a swoopers track. It gets shouted by broadcasters. And all jockeys and trainers then follow like sheep. You then have every horse with a winning chance going to centre!! Percentage says winners will all come down the centre until someone backs there judgment in and takes a shortcut on a good chance! Just the way the partiapants play the game in the industry!! No one has much judgement.

spinner wrote: If they run slow enough sectionals its a physical impossibility for backmarkers to run on. If the best horse is leading its impossible for the backmarkers to run on as they are not good enough.

If it exists I would say uneven watering and rail movements are the causes.

djebel wrote: If it exists I would say uneven watering and rail movements are the causes.

Yes - but that should affect all horses the same. Why would front markers get an advantage from either of those things ?

djebel wrote: If it exists I would say uneven watering and rail movements are the causes.

Straight arrow wrote: The problem I see these gurus that rate themselves as track speacilists? Have u ever seen them walk the whole track or distance there horse is running? Because my thinking is that if there was an advantage,? The race is not won in the straight!! It's getting to the best ground for all the race!! And I have seen lots of trackers were the rail in the back is no good . But fair in the straight

Darren Murphy always walked the complete track. Several jockeys do. But most just do the straight.

I don't profess to know what the exact cause of leader or run on bias is but could the quality of the grass cover and soil conditions have an impact?  Say the turf is mown a little short and leaders have a tendency to fire of quicker early sectionals, or on the other side of the coin a really dense grass cover might make it harder to run on?   Or even a shifty track surface?  I don't really know just throwing up some suggestions.

They had some magic in the turf at Eagle Farm last Saturday .

The times they ran were lightening FAST.
Emphasis won the open 1600M in 1.34. 07 from last on the turn .
Winner of 8 from 43 .   Does like the Doomben 2020m on firm going so watch for that with Jeff Lloyd up, in coming weeks..

Takings ran 1.34.99 for a BM 70.
Snoopy won the open 1200 m Sprint in 1.08 79 . won 7 from 30. next run 4, so could improve further and win a weak one again, on that smart effort.

    Every race to the time average = 7 races well above that mark .

Takings has won his last 3 , after winning only 2 in previous 32 runs .
NOT encouraging .

I won't be fighting to get on any of them , but you can't ignore "the clock " ever.

Look if it's a question of grass being different lengths on inside? Would u not think track curators would rectify that?? I'm sure that would b the case. Believe me that does not happen!! And if it did? It would be considered incompetence

Straight arrow wrote: Look if it's a question of grass being different lengths on inside? Would u not think track curators would rectify that?? I'm sure that would b the case. Believe me that does not happen!! And if it did? It would be considered incompetence

I would expect all leaders to be on the fence when leading be it true or 10m out unless the want to sit in the "death seat", most times I feel the term " the rail is hot" is when winners keep on winning by getting rails runs as against coming down 4off the fence or further out, I'm also in agreeance re grass length, watching the horses around at the barriers you get to see how far attendants boots sink into the grass as well as officials , you would be surprised how deep they sink at times, if I can't see their boots imo it will give you a leader or on pace bias , that is until track levels out or it becomes more even , may sound silly to most but ch.528 is best vision as rac. com has the graphics covering the bottom of picture , funny how the term " track bias " reared its head after Mr Dermott Weld took vintage crop home in the early 90s.

Straight arrow wrote: There is no such thing as leader bias unless trackers have a fast lane on inside. I mentioned sometimes certain tracks ie MV when rail out to full distance can help an on pace runner if the whole field does not chase to hard