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How to choose a winner?

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Sister Dot View Drop Down
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    Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 11:34am
How do people choose a young horse. What are their parameters? I found a relatively new method that is no doubt being utilised by those who can access it
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220309/performance-genetics-offering-breeze-ups-analytics
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Shawy38 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 11:39am
Buy a lottery ticket. It's a similar experience.

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Sister Dot View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sister Dot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 11:46am
Surely you can turn the ocean into a pond?
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AndiCap View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndiCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 6:40pm
There must be an App?
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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 6:43pm
Algorisms aside, imo the best way to avoid buying a pushed-too-early probable dud is to give breeze-ups an entirely big miss.
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acacia alba View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 9:56pm
Close your eyes and throw a dart. 
animals before people.
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colin1 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote colin1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Jun 2018 at 8:37am
At least check it has four legs
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jul 2018 at 9:02pm
I am curious as to why people place such faith in the breeding/matching to suit, according to these various programs like Brain and others.   You know, this mare matches that stallion better than another one ?   If the idea of perfect genetics meeting means a champion will be produced, how come full brothers dont always do well?
Look at Danehill, Nuclear Freeze and Eagle Eyed.  For example.  3 full brothers and one became a champion at stud and the other 2 were complete duds. 
Maybe Furious has some ideas on this ?
animals before people.
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rem286 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rem286 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jul 2018 at 10:02pm
Because full brothers have the same parents, not the same DNA. 

I think the reason people go with nicks etc is because if those families when crossed produce a higher percentage of good horses than when they are crossed with other families, then the families must have some sort of affinity with each other genetically.  

Unfortunately there are so many more pieces to the puzzle, and from what I can see, nobody has it completely figured out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jul 2018 at 11:07pm
Of course no one has it figured out, as there are so many variables.  Who knows how many potential champions have never made it to the track because of injury or even poor management.  The bottom line is all about risk.  We should be able to accurately assess the likelihood of a mating producing a quality offspring.  In my view this also includes being able to predict how often full siblings are likely to be successful.  By this I mean how likely it is that a successful mating can be repeated.  This is very different to the success of siblings at stud by the way, and we often confuse the two.  Danehill was a Group 1 winner yet none of his siblings won a Group race.  Should they realistically be compared by their success at stud when they would have very different opportunity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2018 at 10:54am
I am really interested in all opinions on this, so thanks Rem and Progold for your imput.
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glencoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2018 at 6:39pm
Not an app. Andi-cap but an Opp.  that is an opportunity to purchase an expensive performance genetics analysis
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2018 at 6:43pm
Star  Thumbs Up

Hope I haven't overdone the emotiCONS.  Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jul 2018 at 12:29pm
I compared sire ratings with offspring ratings, and dam ratings with offspring ratings.
As most sire have very high ratings that test was not too informative, although higher rated sires produced higher rated foals (but that might be because they got higher rated mares).
The link with mares was more pronounced: higher rated mares produce higher rated offspring.

I compared runner ratings against inbreeding in the first six generations for a large data sample.
In the six generation rated runners I had many inbreeding types i.e. stallion inbreeding, mare inbreeding. 
And each of these types could be further analysed into two sons of a stallion, a son and daughter, or two daughters.  
You can also have bigger "groups" i.e. a stallion 3, 4, 5 or more times in a duplication "group".
This is standard theory stuff, but I think my test was with a sufficiently large number to smooth out the averages.

With full sibling groups you can have more complications:
Two full sibling brothers; a full sibling brother and sister; two full sibling sisters.
And those full sibling groups can produce two sons; a son and daughter; two daughters.

My results showed average rating, for example 
(1) one group of duplicated stallion producing two sons
(2) two groups of duplicated stallion producing two sons
(3) three groups of duplicated stallion producing two sons
and onwards to 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and more groups
When you see the change in average rating for the groups you can tell what inbreeding types are positive and which are negative.

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A highly rated broodmare (her race rating) is a good starting point (but too expensive for many).

In a planned foal pedigree a very strong positive (imo) is full siblings in a pedigree (preferably in 4th or 5th generation). 
Another is several inbreeding groups i.e. three, four, five or more stallions (or mares) duplicated two or more times.
A son and daughter of a stallion is a positive.
The most negative inbreeding is also the most common inbreeding found: two or more sons of a stallion.
It is almost impossible to design a pedigree with the positives only.
You will almost always have to tolerate some negatives as they are difficult to avoid.

kincsem
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