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How to choose a winner?

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tanbon View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tanbon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: How to choose a winner?
    Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 11:34am
How do people choose a young horse. What are their parameters? I found a relatively new method that is no doubt being utilised by those who can access it
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/220309/performance-genetics-offering-breeze-ups-analytics
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Shawy38 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 11:39am
Buy a lottery ticket. It's a similar experience.

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tanbon View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tanbon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 11:46am
Surely you can turn the ocean into a pond?
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AndiCap View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndiCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 6:40pm
There must be an App?
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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 6:43pm
Algorisms aside, imo the best way to avoid buying a pushed-too-early probable dud is to give breeze-ups an entirely big miss.
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acacia alba View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 9:56pm
Close your eyes and throw a dart. 
animals before people.
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colin1 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote colin1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Jun 2018 at 8:37am
At least check it has four legs
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acacia alba View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jul 2018 at 9:02pm
I am curious as to why people place such faith in the breeding/matching to suit, according to these various programs like Brain and others.   You know, this mare matches that stallion better than another one ?   If the idea of perfect genetics meeting means a champion will be produced, how come full brothers dont always do well?
Look at Danehill, Nuclear Freeze and Eagle Eyed.  For example.  3 full brothers and one became a champion at stud and the other 2 were complete duds. 
Maybe Furious has some ideas on this ?
animals before people.
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rem286 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rem286 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jul 2018 at 10:02pm
Because full brothers have the same parents, not the same DNA. 

I think the reason people go with nicks etc is because if those families when crossed produce a higher percentage of good horses than when they are crossed with other families, then the families must have some sort of affinity with each other genetically.  

Unfortunately there are so many more pieces to the puzzle, and from what I can see, nobody has it completely figured out.
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Progold View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jul 2018 at 11:07pm
Of course no one has it figured out, as there are so many variables.  Who knows how many potential champions have never made it to the track because of injury or even poor management.  The bottom line is all about risk.  We should be able to accurately assess the likelihood of a mating producing a quality offspring.  In my view this also includes being able to predict how often full siblings are likely to be successful.  By this I mean how likely it is that a successful mating can be repeated.  This is very different to the success of siblings at stud by the way, and we often confuse the two.  Danehill was a Group 1 winner yet none of his siblings won a Group race.  Should they realistically be compared by their success at stud when they would have very different opportunity.
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acacia alba View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2018 at 10:54am
I am really interested in all opinions on this, so thanks Rem and Progold for your imput.
animals before people.
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Glencoe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glencoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2018 at 6:39pm
Not an app. Andi-cap but an Opp.  that is an opportunity to purchase an expensive performance genetics analysis
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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2018 at 6:43pm
Star  Thumbs Up

Hope I haven't overdone the emotiCONS.  Wink
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