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Historical Time Charts

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Tontonan View Drop Down
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    Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 10:00am

There was some interest in the historical time charts I posted for the Melbourne Cup and AJC Derby on the Caulfield Cup thread.  

They are part of a series which plot the progression of the time records of various heritage races namely : The Melbourne Cup (3200m), AJC Derby (2400m), Mackinnon Sks/Australian Cup (2000m), Doncaster Hcp (1600m) and Newmarket Hcp (1200m).  This races were chosen because of their continuous history dating back to the 19th century and their being conducted over the same course thoroughout.

I made the point on the other thread that the progression of the time records at 3200m and 2400m leap frogs its way through the colonial period and into the 20th century before it moderates from the middle of the century or even as early as the 1930's.  And I offered some factors that might account for those trends.  However the graphs for the lesser distances reveal an even more interesting trend :  In short course racing the progression of the improvement of time records is extended through the 20th century and in the case of the 1200m Newmarket Handicap the progression seems to continue into the 21st century with a remarkably constant rate of improvement. 

It might be said that at 2 miles, even a mile and a half, the virtual limits of thoroughbred speed may have been reached while at a mile and below those limits are still being plumbed. 

The set of time charts is posted below.  They haven't been updated for a few years but the trends are clear...

MELBOURNE CUP  2 miles (3219m)



AJC DERBY  12 furlongs (2414m)/2400m



FLEMINGTON 10 furlongs (2011m)/ 2000m  (Data taken from Melbourne/Mackinnon Sks to 1978 and Australian Cup from 1979)



DONCASTER HCP 1 mile (1609m) /1600m



NEWMARKET HCP 6 furlongs (1207m) / 1200m


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furious View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 11:48am
You can pick the wet years from that chart.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 11:56am
You may be interested that two of the names way back in the 10f chart Abercorn and Trenton figure as sires of dams in Aloisia dam line.  She goes back to Nellie Morse (USA) 1921 inbred to Trenton 3f x 3f through the dam of sire and dam.  While her dam was a daughter of Chester's great son Abercorn and in this 1921 filly had seven individual Australian and New Zealand bred sires who appear 10 times within five generations.  She was inbred to Goldsbrough (AUS) 5f x 4f 5f also.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 11:59am
Originally posted by furious furious wrote:

You can pick the wet years from that chart.<div id="UMS_TOOLTIP" style=": ; cursor: pointer; : 2147483647; : transparent; top: -100000px; left: -100000px;">

You might also detect a slowing from the advent of heavy track watering.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 12:15pm
I would think that there would be similar shaped graphs for human records, 100m, 400m, 1600m over time, as well as swimming.

Nutrition, scientific approaches to training, injury treatment etc would likely play heavily into both, as well as development of racing surfaces.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 4:00pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

 
You might also detect a slowing from the advent of heavy track watering.

Certainly max, both in terms of irrigation (the Melbourne Cup) and Hughie (the Doncaster).  

I share Furious' interest in deep 'colonial' breeding and enjoyed the win of Aloisia very much.  

Passing Through has set me some interesting homework.  There will undoubtedly be a progressive improvement in times of human athletes but I think there will be subtle yet significant differences in the shape of the human graphs against the horses.  Looking forward to finding out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 4:04pm
Image result for 100m world record over time
Image result for mile record over time

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 4:08pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

I would think that there would be similar shaped graphs for human records, 100m, 400m, 1600m over time, as well as swimming.

Nutrition, scientific approaches to training, injury treatment etc would likely play heavily into both, as well as development of racing surfaces.


Changes of a synthetic nature have also helped the increased performances of athletes or even footballers, be it shoes, tracks, footballs, clothes, steroids, epo, and other red cell
induced products, a lot of great horses had to carry 63 kg and upwards in the 20th cent,
but not now, the graphs imo are a good indicator of progress over time but not class, they were classy then and are imho just as classy now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 4:09pm
That is my point carioca, and comparing similar trajectories in humans bears that out, I feel
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 5:57pm
The difference I see is that both the 100m and 1600m records arc progressively and continuously right through the 20th century.  The records for the 2400 and 3200m for horses do not.  There is a very clear leveling of the horse records from the 1950's or even 1930's in distance races.  Yes,  there are marginal improvements but nothing like the steady progression of human athletes.  

Horses times for the 3200m and 2400m examples appear to be captured in band between 203 and 199 seconds with very few and increasingly fewer exceptions in the case of the Melbourne Cup and between 150 and 154 seconds in the case of the Derby.  However the progression of times for the Donaster and particularly the Newmarket are much closer to the trend described by human athletes which steadily improves with the passage of time. 

The thing I think we will find with horses though is that the time taken to win a common maiden will have improved at a greater rate than the group 1 races at the same distance over the decades.  That is to say the speed band across the classes is narrowing as a result of many of the things described by PT to what what it was 50 or 80 years ago.  The breed as whole is getting quicker.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 6:10pm
The Australian Derby times are similar despite the move from Spring to Autumn giving them 6 months maturity ?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2017 at 8:35pm
Similar yes. But three things :

1. The Hughie factor.  He seems to send it down more in the Autumn than the Spring .
 
2. The times since 1979 have improved, if only marginally.  

The polynominal trend line shows a quickening after a moderation coming off the sub 2:30 wins of Tulloch, Skyline and Summer Prince.  2:30 was never breached after 1965 when Prince Grant ran 2.29.9 until Octagonal's 2.28.4 metric record in 1996.  21 years.  

Since then Ebony Grosve, Headturner, Shamrocker and Ethiopia have cracked 2:30.   Prior to Tulloch no horse had broken 2:30.  In fact no horse had broken 2:31.  Phar Lap's (and prince Morvi's) 2.31.2 was the standing record when Tulloch smashed it.

So since 1979 five horses have broken 2:30.  Prior to 1979 only 3 horses had. 

3. I don't think 6 months makes a whole of difference.  Tulloch ran his 2.26.9 in October of his third year to win the Caulfield Cup.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Oct 2017 at 12:19pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

That is my point carioca, and comparing similar trajectories in humans bears that out, I feel


Apples and Oranges pt, racehorses don't have ego's, and the nearest thing to greed for them is a good feed, human to human manipulation will always win out, the good horse person will always sleep well at night imo.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Oct 2017 at 5:15pm
Old old blood in both Snitty Kitty and White Moss.  They both decend from Chester's dam Lady Chester.
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