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doctorevil View Drop Down
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    Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 12:43am
hi all im new to tvf i am currently working on a new system but i seem to be struggling with it i was wondering if any one could offer me some advice? i have 300+ horses on my blackbook which i update
after every race they run in. as you can well imagine it takes up a decent chunk of my time.
my rules are fairly simple

A/ must be 345 year old (no exceptions)
B/must have had less than 20 lifetime starts going into their new campaign
c/must have had 3 previous wins
d/must have had at least one run back from a spell unless they have won first up before

i have tried to keep it simple im working on a basis that the horses are at their peak performance of their careers being 345 year olds
havent been overtaxed by their trainers eg 20 lifetime starts max
have found the winning post on three other ocassions
and are getting fitter with each run into their current campaign should i also be taking into account todays track conditions dist barrier positions etc or can i be confident enough that my horses trainer knows what hes doing eg 3 previous wins.

thx in Advance

Doc

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VaDiM View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VaDiM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 1:28am
not to many horses going around that are 345 years old ;) lol
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doctorevil View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote doctorevil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 1:40am
4354 posts and thats the best u can come up with sheesh

Doc
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Weekend King Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 1:51am
Originally posted by doctorevil doctorevil wrote:

4354 posts and thats the best u can come up with sheesh

Doc
Lol that's one of the best out of the 4354 Tongue
 
You need to come up with a couple more rules that cuts down the amount of horses you follow, for the better.. IE: Distance stats, track stats, barrier, jockey, trainer ect ect...There's a million you can apply! To be honest I think you are wasting your time following so many horses in your black book because it must take an age to be able to keep track of so many!! Quality not quanitity
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote watarush Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 5:03am
do your own form you pleb
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doctorevil View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote doctorevil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 9:20am
pleb geese u guys are full of compliments thought this was a forum anyways thx for your great help  in advance 
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The Stallion View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Stallion Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 9:44am
Shame you're copping a bit of a lashing, but probably wouldn't have been too hard to put commas between 3,4,5 :)... And as already stated, you need to change your horse selection criteria, its not stringent enough and you will be following too many, not worth it and not really much of a system in my opinion... Good luck to you though.
That's the smell of victory, you can't wash that out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Grinnersawinner Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 10:21am
a 3yo with 20starts hasnt been overtaxed. Lol.
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Whale View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 10:29am
Try "Theory Testing" in tipping and wagering
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robins View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote robins Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 11:20am
What the hell is a "pleb"?
Desperate
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minatory View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote minatory Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 11:25am

OK, preaching to the choir ..... successful selection systems have these elements: a) reduced number of bets, ie, you don't bet every race; b) focus is on 'quality' horses placed to advantage; c) certain winning form 'angles' are identified which repeat frequently enough to garner a profitable ROI.

from your post, you are limiting selections to horses aged 3,4,5. this makes sense as younger horses win more often than 6,7, aged, horses do. you limit career starts to 20, another positive, as records show horses with 40+ career starts have poorer win %ages. you focus on horses who perform well early in prep, eg, first to fourth start, say. another positive. must have 3 career wins, so with small number of starts win %age will be high. another positive.
 
bringing all this together, you could list your system 'rules' and trial for a year, tweaking as you go.
if you have access to a form/results database, you can check results and 'back fit' your angles to confirm historic results.
 
suggestions
focus on better class races where form is more disclosed, eg, black type, open, higher grade restricted
concentrate on sprint races up to 1400m where class prevails over tactics
dont bet on 2yo races at all, and dont bet on 3yo races august-january inclusive
eliminate 3yos running against older horses aug-jan inclusive
set a limit on minimum win %age, say 25%
focus on horses having 1,2,3,4 RFS with competitive form patterns
eliminate horses having more than 30 career starts
eliminate horses aged 7 or over
etc etc
 
master ricky the donald champion
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 12:12pm
 You may be wasting a lot of money on  long priced horses too often .
 Good idea to have bets within the first few  in the market and look closely at last start beaten horses starting at a shorter price next run.
 Keep to Metropolitan events unless its of black type class.
Very hard to have mechanical system success but good luck in your efforts .
 Main point to be successful is a staking method and bet to a BANK ...Business approach.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 12:38pm
Originally posted by robins robins wrote:

What the hell is a "pleb"?


low class...from Roman plebian class. Any class below Patrician . Used as an insult to suggest poor breeding and/or education
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 12:50pm

First up Doc welcome and sorry you got a bit roasted early on but it has been a long year and there are some who have not had things go their way (Vad's two favs Toorak Toff and WBGY did not win their finals).

 
Everyone knows how I bet but I have been following a system my uncle has been trying over the spring.
 
He picks two numbers and just contoinues to back them (sometimes he stands them out seperately as rovers in trifectas).
 
For the thoroughbreds he has picked the numbers 2 & 6.
 
For the Harness meeetings he goes with 8 & 9.
 
And with the greyhounds he goes with 6 & 8.
 
But I agree with the suggestions made, limit the number of races, try and bet in races where the form is exposed (well known) and I would add that you should have blackbookers who do not clash. So in other words if you were blckbooking stayers you could have say Maluckyday and Harris Tweed for the group 1's and then have Strike One and Beijing Boy for the lower class races.
 
But good luck and lots of success!  
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waggamick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 2:10pm
Your system isn't too far removed from my favourite:

4 & 5 Year Olds only.
2000 metres or less.
Top 5 Trainer.
Back from spell resumption until it wins.
Bet to win $100.


Worked on the rationales that:
Top 5 Trainers have access to best feed, vets, jocks, allied staff, pre-prep conditioning.
Top 5 Trainers have high demand for their services and won't persevere with 4 and 5 year olds that can't win.
Owners having horses with Top 5 Trainers are paying big bucks and want to see results, usually early in a prep.
4 and 5 year olds have developed a pattern of training progression that allows the trainer to set the horse for a certain race at a certain date given their 'predictability'.

I dabbled with 6 year olds and with longer distances but the returns diminished.

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robins View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote robins Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 3:19pm
Thank you Brown Dog
 
My understanding of  the plebian class was they were about 90% of the population, therefore the average citizen. So the insult of "pleb" to determine lower than average is incorrect.
 
If these fools are going to use words to insult  and demean others perhaps they should learn what they really mean.
 
Desperate
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 3:53pm
Originally posted by robins robins wrote:

Thank you Brown Dog
 
My understanding of  the plebian class was they were about 90% of the population, therefore the average citizen. So the insult of "pleb" to determine lower than average is incorrect.
 
If these fools are going to use words to insult  and demean others perhaps they should learn what they really mean.
 


That is correct robins, but colloquially it is  used as a putdown, implying that the person using the putdown sees himself and his class alone as elite, and everyone else as rabble.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 3:55pm
Originally posted by robins robins wrote:

Thank you Brown Dog
 
My understanding of  the plebian class was they were about 90% of the population, therefore the average citizen. So the insult of "pleb" to determine lower than average is incorrect.
 
If these fools are going to use words to insult  and demean others perhaps they should learn what they really mean.
 


Christ.....Wink
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doctorevil View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote doctorevil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 9:43pm
thank u all for your input u have been a great help much appreciated

Doc
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wortel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Dec 2010 at 11:33pm
After a horses 6th birthday it's old and tired and will never win another race. LOL

At least show me the stats that back this up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Stallion Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Dec 2010 at 12:03am
If they're going stats, then the stats are 6yo's are not as effective as those younger.
Pleb - plebeian, common folk, put down, not much more needs to be said.


That's the smell of victory, you can't wash that out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jimbob04 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Dec 2010 at 9:06am
lol
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wortel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Dec 2010 at 10:35am
6yo is the peak age for a racehorse.

Northerly, Makybe, Fields Of Omagh, El Segundo and Maldivian all won the cox plate at 6.

Still no proof, just assumptions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Dec 2010 at 10:39am
I will run age strike rates for the past 4 years....back soon.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote doctorevil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Dec 2010 at 10:39pm
i have reduced my blackbook to horses with 3 wins and a 25% win sr before coming back from spell so we will see if my selections show any improvement from here on am happy to post my selections each day if anyone is interested

Doc
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wortel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Dec 2010 at 11:44pm
I think everybody will be interested to see your selections.

Give it a go and don't worry too much about those that take cheap shots. Tongue
 
Hey Bundy must be taking a while to calculate all those mighty 6yo+ winners.
 
I love the older horses. Zipping will be winning G1s as a 10yo.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Stallion Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Dec 2010 at 12:30am
I like older horses as well and backed my fair share, as I said I don't believe in hard and fast rules when it comes to backing winners.. However, most horses get most of their wins at ages 3,4,5... Of course there are horses that buck the trend Worts, but if you're someone looking to start a system and looking at ages, those are generally the prime ages... I would personally never disregard a horse because of age, but if I ever was going to, 3,4,5 would be the last ages I would disregard.
That's the smell of victory, you can't wash that out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote doctorevil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Dec 2010 at 9:06am
ok here goes

12/12/10Bordertown6 - West End Hcp4 - Saint Sha Rose     
12/12/10Bordertown8 - Tatiara Truck an4 - Fille de Choisir     
12/12/10Canberra5 - NIKO CONSTRUCTIO11 - Delabombell     
12/12/10Canberra6 - MAXWELL & CO RE1 - Beyond Expectation     
12/12/10Moonee Valle6 - Tattsbet.com Han8 - Hooness     
12/12/10Sha Tin5 - Turf Group 1 12014 - Ortensia 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hay List Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Dec 2010 at 9:20am
Anyone know what a fanny is ?
Formerly known as Crash       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote straight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Dec 2010 at 11:34am
Yeah its an arse
u dont have to b dead to b stiff
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