Gingernuts

That was the plan initially but seems things have changed. 

 

Off the top of my head Zonda in 97/98, Xcellent in 04/05, Darci Brahma 05/06, Jimmy Choux 10/11, Xtravagant last year despite the obvious difference he was a pure sprinter/miler.  And logically Surfers Paradise, The Phantom Chance, Veandercross would likely have drawn similar comparisons back in the early 90s.  Avedon in 94/95 too I suspect, particularly given he was inclined to run around like Bonecrusher at that age.  Wouldn't surprise me if it was trotted out about Leica Guv in 01/02 or St Reims a year later.  There are probably more, the years blend into each other after a while

 

I was high on Gingernuts for the Derby and backed him.  If he repeats the Guineas effort in the wet he's going to be very hard to beat.

 

I've just heard the Bonecrusher line quite a few times about different horses.

 

I'm not overly excited but couldn't be too harsh on them since they managed placings in the Derby/Oaks at Flemington in the spring.  I wouldn't compare them to the 2008 or 2015 Derby quinellas at Randwick though.

 

The fillies I exclude La Diosa from since she's untried past 1600m and who knows what's up with her after last week.  I'd have to say I wasn't overly impressed with the quality of the fillies 2000m races over summer.  The trainers do at least seem to think Bonneval is improving quickly so she deserves to be Oaks fav on the back of the two recent wins, but $3 is short.  Shared Secrets is another relatively untapped and hard to line up but could easily step up now she's getting to the right distance range.  It's not a terrible Oaks but no real wow factor either.

 

The males obviously Gingernuts deserves top ranking off the past two wins but it's hard to know what to make of some of those behind him.  Sacred Elixir ran better in the Derby than most people probably perceived.  A few of the others like Camino Rocoso and Mongolian Wolf went in relatively inexperienced and could improve far more next prep but I couldn't back them to reverse with Gingernuts anytime soon.  Tavidream and Sacred Way both went around over 1600m so hard to get a line on them yet either.  I think the pecking order is quite fluid and could easily change but Gingernuts is the only one I could consider backing in a G1 in Sydney unless Sacred Elixir gets out to big odds.

 

Worth remembering how quickly the rankings can change over the autumn as this time last year Humidor was a maiden winner coming off his awkward Derby 11th and Tavago had run home well without much luck for 6th.  Both of them bounced back to win next start.  Two years ago Werther had run last in the 1600m 3yo race on Derby Day-I backed him.  I didn't back him next start at $4 in a R65 1600m

 

Er I mean 1st/3rd 2015.

 

That 2008 quinella sticks in the mind since I went around saying what a strong crop it was, only to back something that wasn't Nom De Jeu or Red Ruler in the Derby in Aussie on a wet track.  While Cest Le Guerre was sitting back in NZ after cruising in the NZ Derby, where I backed him and Nom De Jeu.  Terrible punting