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Exposing TAB Trackside

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Dutch View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 May 2019 at 3:07pm
Trackside is designed to be a fun game - same as Bet365 let people on "for fun only."

I am not called "Dutch" for nothing Geek

There is benefit in analysis. 

Runner #1 always pays $4.10
Runner #2 always pays $5.10.
Runner #1 + Runner #2 win approx 46% of these races over a sample.

BEST time to bet: Do your own research.
Time of day IS important. Do your own research.

Avoid place betting unless using a staking plan like Cascade/Avalanche.
Which runner to place bet? Do your own research.

How many runners to dutch? Do your own research.

Hint: My wife loves the clubs because of the reels.
I love the clubs because of Trackside.

Took me three weeks part-time analysis to cough up my system.
It's for sale, but you can't afford it Cry

Joking guys - but seriously there is a strategy that doesn't always win, but can get you in front well enough.

Nothing is fool-proof where electronic gambling is concerned, but here are some tips when taking a closer look:

The shorter priced runners DO win more, and are true enough to normal betting percentages.
This - in simple terms - means that the percentages will ring true OVER TIME, but not necessarily over one hour.

In my records I have seen #1 win 12 times out of 16, and later, win 5 times out of 16.
Similar runs for #2 - averages rule, not consistency, though reliable enough for the dutch bettor to have a go at.

Best advice - none!
Problem with advice is that it works ... until it doesn't!

Anyone else had a closer look at this electronic Ned Kelly?

Happy to discuss my systems if someone else has worked something out as well.

The TAB is unlikely to change much, given that they have no idea what time of day a punter is going to walk in and have a system bet. 
It's just an opinion, but I reckon the TAB Trackside would welcome systems players - just like they'd love for a few "winner stories" to get into circulation.

In my case we hit the clubs about once a fortnight, and I am such a small player, they wouldn't notice me.

But over an hour +/- I can clean $400 out of them.
Have also had some fingernail-biting moments!

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 May 2019 at 3:53pm
Cheers Dutch. Redemption will be interested in what you have come up with here Wink
Refer ALP Election Promises
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 May 2019 at 4:57pm
If you can make $400 in an hour by dutching 44% of the market.(by winning 11/18 games)
Then you can more easily (when the other 76% of the market prevails) lose over $350 in an hour.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2019 at 2:20am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Cheers Dutch. Redemption will be interested in what you have come up with here Wink
Perhaps.
Lets not diss Redemption out of hand - the guy is having a bit of a go at cracking the code here.
I am not a wealthy punter - and I doubt few of us are. 
In fact I play just for the amusement, and to try to nut out stuff that offers different angles. 
I'll die a poor man due to my systems, no doubt. Wink Cry

Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

If you can make $400 in an hour by dutching 44% of the market.(by winning 11/18 games)
Then you can more easily (when the other 76% of the market prevails) lose over $350 in an hour.
I think you are referring to a market made to 120%, Rusty - a fair enough assumption from what I wrote. 
I'm having trouble following your maths here ie 11 of 18 games?

But what I should have made clearer is the 44% is a strike rate, not a market percentage. 
Ignore price and look at strike rate.
And yes, you can surely lose - some hourly periods you can get as few as 4 wins - not good.
There are between 15 and 17 games each hour. 
They aim for one race every 4 minutes. Not sure why the variation.

Of course I am going to quote the best-case scenario, but in the cold light of day the strike rate can vary between 56% in a one-hour period to 23%. 
So - "Houston ... we have a problem."

The thing is, this is just another form of entertainment.
I get my jollies working on such stuff, looking for an edge.

There are better ways to turn a dollar in this game.

The few times I have been operating this at the club, I made $53 (first day) over an hour and a beer;
$128 on the second occasion (less the cost of another beer); 
and once I had a handle on what I was doing, $392 on the last day. 
I am aiming for a target plus 25% of losses, then start fresh once I get a win, regardless of covering previous losses.

Once you get a run of say 5 wins from 8 or 9 bets, you are doing well.

But two things first:
1) Take plenty of cash with you and learn how to fill in the tickets quickly.
2) Don't put real money down until you have had a few hours practice on paper, and keep good/clear records

You can follow the live draws here:


I concede I may have been lucky because at any time a run of losses can happen. 
Time of day is important, because if you try to do this when volume is thin (not many punters playing) I'd think attention might be drawn to a venue that was "bleeding" a bit. 
I'm sure these algorithms are designed to work out what the punters are doing and switch to another mode.

In that respect, I'd agree with Redemption.

But I am hooked and will try again.

Here's a hint on how to accomplish a win: -


Have a play with it until you get good at it, if keen.
Then set targets you can handle without clenching your teeth when you lose.
I use the fully hedged mode, meaning when I bet, I include 2 other runners likely to beat me as break-even bets.

Essentially I have 4 runners every bet, with only 2 of the four to give a profit, and the other two to break even. 
That is the best 33% of the field working FOR me, based on winning stats for each runner.

Not eye surgery  Wink  I get a real buzz out of beating the game, but there are no free lunches. 
Have been doing dutching for years and it doesn't take long to size up a proposition.
The odds are ok for this.
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2019 at 5:53pm
$4.10 equates to 24.4%
$5.10 equates to19.6%
Which is 44%

When you said you could make &400ish in an hour, I quickly looked at past results, the gap between games alternate between 3 & 4 minutes, thus 18 games in an hour.
So if you invested $50 & $40 respectively for each horse. Your collect would be $200 for each win,or a win of $110.
To get to $400 you’d need to win 4 times more than you lost, so 11/18 wins,7/18 losses.

There’s no way TAB switches algorithms to stitch up punters.
Their percentage looks after it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2019 at 9:10pm
Originally posted by Dutch Dutch wrote:

... what I should have made clearer is the 44% is a strike rate, not a market percentage. 
Ignore price and look at strike rate.
 
I may have mislead by stating the 44% is not a strike rate, because the actual strike rate is very close to that number. 
My initial sample was 224 races = too few, and that's why I was not more definitive.

We no longer need to convert price to percentage, RN, except for the initial proof-of-concept and integrity of price. 
Once we know #1 + #2 = 44%, then we can continue to build a strategy around that fact.

We now look to see if the STRIKE RATE correlates with that percentage ... and it does.

I think the SR comes in around 44% as well, so easy to confuse. 
I'm in the process of documenting 1000 races, which I should have done prior to writing this. 
We really need 10,000 races, plus knowledge of size of losing streaks, but ... will leave that to the professionals Geek

We are NOT dutching based on percentages in this case, but on STRIKE RATE, notwithstanding you have correctly nailed the percentage.
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

$4.10 equates to 24.4%
$5.10 equates to19.6%
Which is 44%
True, but we no longer need to know.
Strike rate is where it's at now that we know the percentages stack up.

Look - it doesn't matter if I am right or wrong.
The issue is whether or not there is a system in the offing, to extend the bank and thus extend the fun.
I know what I have been able to do and hope to share it.
If not then no harm trying.

I am uncomfortable spending $50+ on a race in the hope the system wins.
Got away with it, and got a bit carried away with the dreams after that.
In the cold light of day, I might have been lucky, that is all.
That nasty streak always lurks and they do happen. 
No doubt I will get caught eventually and embarrassingly. 

But at least I won't die wondering, and I know systems buffs will be keen to see the outcome of this.
I have some other refinements hinted at earlier which can be used to advantage.

And thank you for your input mate - I don't mind being held to account.
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2019 at 1:16pm
Okay, here it is.

Its an upside down pyramid.

The top of the pyramid are the primary numbers, 1,2,3
The middle of the pyramid, is 4,5,6,7,8
The bottom is, 9,10,11,12.

Imagine the pyramid is glass.
The sun going around it slowly.
It will reflect light and retract light.
It will cast shadows, sometimes short ones, someone long.
The shadows are the results.

I will disclose exactly how it works soon.

Image result for upside down glass  pyramid
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2019 at 11:19pm
Went looking for statistics in the number of races I have so far analysed.

Out of 425 races, this is what came up:

Runner .... Frequency ..... % of total

1     .....         86    .....       20.235

2     .....         73    .....       17.176

3     .....         40    .....        9.412

4     .....         51    .....       12.000

5     .....         40    .....       9.412

6     .....         35    .....       8.235

7     .....         28    .....       6.588

8     .....         20    .....       4.706

9     .....         21    .....       4.941

10   .....         12    .....       2.824

11   .....         11    .....       2.588

12   .....           8    .....       1.882

___________________________

.................425 races ..... 99.999%


As I continue to compile these records, some of these numbers will not change significantly.

Others will begin to conform to their statistical expectation based on odds. 

eg the #3 is under-performing and the #4 is over-performing based on expectations. 

Didn't do statistics/probabilities at high school, but have self-taught through my experience with racing and gambling in general.

I can see that so far the numbers are roughly according to expectation, with a larger than expected statistical error.margin.

Hopefully if I am off the track, someone with a better grasp of these models will correct me.


Also - anyone know how to post a tabulation of these results?

Have created the table here ... http://tableizer.journalistopia.com/

But for the life of me I am clueless about how to put it up here for all to see.

Sad  Angry

 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2019 at 1:37am
Dutch, all 4 numbers must be factored into the statistics, in particular the trifecta.

eg
4,7,1,9
4,2,3,10
1,9,2,5

etc
The results of all 4 numbers, help determine what is about to happen.

I can inform you this,,, as example

game 1,
4,6,8
 game 2
1,5,3
game 3
12,8,2
game 4
11,1,5

In such example here, the 12 came up, but then the 11. the 11 had no real reason to come up, so this is what we refer to as impending retraction.
it means a very full trifecta will now come in, under the number 11.

eg, 5,9,10
or, 6,11,5
etc

reflecting is when its going opposite,
eg
first the full trifecta,
6,9,8
this now means numbers 10,11,12, are highly likely to appear.

why?

Lets say by example, everyone boxed numbers 1 to 9, cost 504.
they would be miles in front, due to the 6,9,8 result.
so what the algorithm must do, is start reflecting, by either "exceeding" number 9, eg,  1,10,3
missing that box 9.

the wave of reflecting and retracting, is actually quite gentle. 
the most dramatic results, eg
7,9,10
4,11,9

means that 11 and 12 will start coming in, with 1,2,3. 

ultimately, you can play both very safely
either ride the wave of reflecting, by knowing when the big numbers will come in, or ride the retracting, when smaller numbers come in, crunching down the divis.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2019 at 3:18am
I have more than 750 first four results so far, and will try to work through these in an attempt to "learn" what the patterns are. 
Much better when they are in front of your eyes in a list. Just doing an hour or two on this every day.

I can see that you and your friends have put in a very big effort to try to understand what is going on.
 I think you might have reached a stage now that you can glance over results and "see" when a certain combinations are more likely to come up.
Even if just working on quinellas or trifectas, this might represent a decent edge.

My own recordings of these are only between 11am and 11pm because these are "Club-open" times.
If attempting to work these out at street TAB's, the opening hours are too restrictive. 
Therefore I am not interested in what goes on after hours and before 11am.

I know that the statistics will be skewed because of the omission of certain data, but this could be to advantage, provided certain strike rates are consistent. 
In any event, I intend to compile full 24hr data in time, to compare strike rate of numbers.

For now I will cease posting on my own approach, to return to the intent of your OP, Redemption.
Whatever work I do will not be necessary to contribute here, as it is now off-topic.

I like what you are doing and accept it may not be palatable to everyone.
But you have my support.

Have you been able to land any decent trifectas or first fours based on your work?

I ask because it seems to me there are massive combinations to be worked through in order to reasonably cover the likely combinations "hitting" when conditions appear to be setting up for them.

Even getting ONE number correct consistently when reflection occurs, is an advantage like no other.
I did quite well with first fours a few years back using a Rover to anchor the bets. 
Little bit different from using a Banker in these, but still an effective way to cover the combinations more likely to succeed.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2019 at 2:00am
Hi Dutch thanks for your candid post and approach.
Trackside is possibly the least rigged computer generator in market.
Its not a random generator.
This is why we are so interested in it.

we dont ever chase one particular number.

we divide the pyramid into 3, with a strong emphasis on the primary numbers, 1,2,3.
By example, 1,2,3 on of those numbers appears in a quinella, around 85 to 90% of the time, so its basically most likely you need to include them in quinellas.

For those of us that have followed it for years, there have been some bizarre hours, by example, there was an hour, a few years ago, number 1, won 17 races in a row.

I can inform you, that when 1,2,3, have accumulated a place total of only 19 times out of 20 games, that is a severe drought, and becomes an EXCEPTIONALLY good time to invest very heavily on 1,2,3.
so we watch the place count for those numbers.
when it starts dropping from 30, to 25,22, to 20,  its time to bet heavily into them.

they quickly pick up the rate again, and return to around the 25 placings out of 20 games.

we dont just watch numbers however, we run a dividend count. we count each dividend. its not just numbers, its what they are collectively paying in trifectas etc, that can help you decipher what is about to happen.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2019 at 2:07am
run as charts, 1,2,3, when assessed collectively, its a very gentle wave, when you run them as 3 numbers.

however if you ran data on just one number, you can get this
Image result for 3 squiggly line wave

However, when you combine the data of 3 numbers together, the "waves" are far more gentle, thus easier to assess and determine the peaks and valleys, for the peaks and valleys are far more softer.

Image result for 3 squiggly line wave

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2019 at 2:09am
Dramatic peaks and troughs of assessing just one number. strongly advise against this.
its better to run the data as a collective group. you can ride their more gentle waves, when they are combined.

you dont want this, one number dramatic peaks and valleys

Image result for 3 squiggly line wave
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2019 at 3:03am
And thats how people get suckered in and give their money away . Wacko
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2019 at 4:11am
At work right now but certainly appreciate the effort you have put in to this Redemption.
You have given me some ideas and food for further discussion.
Will get back to you once this sinks in.
It may not be possible to predict the big first four (12-11-10-9) but yes quinellas and trifectas have better probability of being nailed when the data is assessed.

Thanks for sharing this work.
Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WarriSymbol Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jun 2019 at 11:12am
What would Brooke make of all this?   
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