Cox Plate 2019

djebel wrote: In what year would a Australian Cup winner not get a run in the Cox Plate ? What is interesting is they had a full field and accepted a late entry. Now whilst Black Heart Barts form demands he be in the race I am not sure they should be taking late entries when the race is over subscribed. Even is trainer Lindsay Smith expected to miss out due to needing to be a late entry.

Balciano wrote: To be fair to Harlem, he did run 3rd in the Caulfield Stakes last start, beating home Avilius, Humidor and Homesman. Its unlucky for Humidor, but I don't have an issue with the Aust Cup winner getting a start. The year the Caulfield Cup winner missed a start, Cole Diesel had also won the Toorak the previous week. But the MVRC said he had no WFA form, and gave a start instead to The Phantom, who'd been placed once at WFA, and the 3 yr old Zabeel, who'd won the MV Stakes then run unplaced in the Guineas in his only Group race performances. As it turns out they both went onto greater things. I like the MVRC discretionary powers, it adds an element of drama to the race, a bit like selection of the Miracle Mile fields in the old days.

Any reason why Kluger was included in the field??

Hasn’t won a race since Apr 2016.....over 3 years ago!!!

Has had 9 starts in the last 12 months and has only placed twice.

Balciano wrote: I like the MVRC discretionary powers, it adds an element of drama to the race, a bit like selection of the Miracle Mile fields in the old days.

The MVRC basically admitted they messed up and will be making changes in terms of all the invitations/exempt races/bonuses, meaning their hands were tied when it came to who to exclude. They have had small fields for a few years and seemed to think they would again this year. Harlem's connections said they wouldn't be there but there is a bonus on offer so they thought why not?

My guess is that we overexaggerate the pace of UK races. Many are run at just above cantering pace. And I have seen a lot of UK races and feel qualified to make this statement. There are also races that are run at fast paces and those where speed goes on from 800 _1000m out.

Also it may have said 'good' track but it certainly wasn't

Carioca wrote: Been hearing for a long while how o/s jockeys say our racing are sit and sprint types and their pace is more even but every time I watch an o/s staying race they just lope along a bit better than evens then from the turn the whips are flaying and their run ins are much longer than ours, the times they run can be farcical.

Carioca wrote: Been hearing for a long while how o/s jockeys say our racing are sit and sprint types and their pace is more even but every time I watch an o/s staying race they just lope along a bit better than evens then from the turn the whips are flaying and their run ins are much longer than ours, the times they run can be farcical.

They LOOK like they are going slower because they settle perfectly and stride efficiently. #Generallyspeaking

I find looking at Euro middle distance races peculiar because everything that happens in the final 2 furlongs looks like it's in slow motion. That's if anything happens at all. In contrast to Australian races where races often completely change complexion in the final 50m.

I know 3yos generally attract support in this race, but the current price on Castelvecchio has me scratching my head.

The Cox Plate is my favourite race, but I'm really missing one special girl this year, she would have blitzed this field.

Cox Plate ratings (no dismissing the Japanese form here!)

1. Black Heart Bart - 83. If this was a field full of local runners, he would be the top rater, but he faces some stiff international form lines here. Still a place hope and is good overs @ $21.00.
2. Avilius - 77. If we strike a wet track he gets pushed up the ladder, but I just can not see him finishing in the top four.
3. Kluger - 86. His two runs in Australia in the autumn were high class. On his Japanese form he is about 2.5 lengths off the favourite, but he is a definite place hope.
4. Harlem - 75. If we were at Flemington I would put him above Avilius, but will do well to finish top ten.
5. Homesman - 81. Going okay, but Cape Of Good Hope went past him like he was glued to the fence in the last 100m, last time out. He likes the course, so he is a top four hope.
6. Kings Will Dream - 83. Top win in the Turnbull, but he does rise 4.5 kilos, and he has drawn a terrible barrier. Not sure Hughie will be winning five Cox Plates in a row, but he can run well.
7. Te Akau Shark - 73. Not sure why he is here, but good luck to connections and the punters who back him. His form is not as good as NZ gallopers who have won or run well here, so he will need to imrpove significantly just to finish top four.
8. Danceteria - 84. I am worried he missed the run at Cauflield, because the trainer did say he would need it. If he is near peak fitness he can run top four.
9. Lys Gracieux - 90. The only doubt for me is the travelling. If she has travelled well, and settled into her new surounds, she wins!
10. Magic Wand - 87. This mare has authentic group 1 form lines. Again the only problem for me is the travel. unce June she has been to England, U.S, and Ireland and now Australia. If she has settled in the $13.00 is completely the wrong price, and she is good overs!
11. Cape Of Good Hope - 85. Good effort fresh in Australia. I am a little worried where he gets to in the run, but if he does not get back to last and if he gets the runs in the final 600m he can go close.
12. Mystic Journey - 81. She meets some high class thoroughbreds here. She does handle the track well, but if she can win this she the world is her oyster. For me she is a top four hope.
13. Verry Elleegant - 71. Not up to these on her spring form. Looking elsewhere.
14. Castelvecchio - 79. Is a big strong 3yo, and he looks well placed at the 2000m, but the draw is not ideal for him. No chnace of top four, but he can run fifth or sixth.
15. Humidor - 80. Not sure why he is an emergency here. His last run was good and he was strong late. If he gets a run he could be the first local home.
16. Mr Quickie - 72. Better suited in teh MV Cup, No chance here.
17. Gailo Chop - 75. Has gotten better and better this prep, but he does not run his best here and wait until Flemington and 2000m.
18. Dream Castle - 75. A level below the other internationals and be better off in the Mile.

Ratings order.

1. No. 9 Lys Garciuex - 90
2. No.10 Magic Wand   - 87
3. No. 3 Kluger       - 86
4. No.11 Cape Of Good Hope - 85
5. No. 8 Danceteria   - 84
6. No. 6 Kings Will Dream - 83

Add ins for any scratchings are No.1 & No.12.
Recommended Bet: $20 win No.9 Lys Graciuex
                 $10 win + $20 place No.11 Cape Of Good Hope
Precedent: No.1 Black Heart Bart

Good luck with all investments, and lots of winners for everyone!