2019 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes

I want to see people's honest thoughts here....how will the 2 yr old perform - a genuine chance of winning?? Or making up the numbers??

It's just such a light weight you never really know how the horse will react, will obviously be running some pretty slick sectionals in front, but I agree - can't see it finishing within 4-5 lengths, this isn't a vintage Lightning but these horses will be pouring the pressure on from the start practically, think she'll be well and truly fading come the 200.

Speediskey wrote: It's just such a light weight you never really know how the horse will react, will obviously be running some pretty slick sectionals in front, but I agree - can't see it finishing within 4-5 lengths, this isn't a vintage Lightning but these horses will be pouring the pressure on from the start practically, think she'll be well and truly fading come the 200.

But is a "light weight"? Because it's a WFA race....she is carrying the correct weight for her she and sex...so is there really an advantage with the so called "light weight"?

I’ve backed the 2yo.
I think she can win

Just for me.

I do not think she can win, but she can run top four.

The only older horses she has to worry about are Osborne Bulls and In Her Time, and the 3yo's are no world beaters, with Graff the best placed here.

Personally I think she will give them something to chase and it is how much she has left for the last 150m whether she can win.

If she runs at a genuine clip up front then she will be found out with 150m left to go...maybe even at the 200m mark. So why not make it a sit and sprint and make the backmarkers have a difficult task of chasing her down. Make this "advantage" (if there is one) of 44kg come into play.

That is how Baster rode Clever Zoe in 1993 Jamal.

He went an even pace until the course proper, and then he asked her for her effort and she just got collared by a far superior galloper in Schillaci.

I think the young guy riding her has asked or will ask Baster for advice about how to judge the pace, which will be invaluable.

Lordy wrote: When it comes to G1 WFA races I always come back to the proven WFA performers. In this field thats Osborne Bulls and In Her Time. Neither are really 1000m horses so opens it up a bit more. Might end up with one of the 3yos. Tossing up between Written By and Sunlight.

In other words, you go for who you perceive to be the best horses in the race.

djebel wrote: Lordy wrote: When it comes to G1 WFA races I always come back to the proven WFA performers. In this field thats Osborne Bulls and In Her Time. Neither are really 1000m horses so opens it up a bit more. Might end up with one of the 3yos. Tossing up between Written By and Sunlight. In other words, you go for who you perceive to be the best horses in the race.

Not really. I think Osborne Bulls is the best horse. I don't believe its a suitable race though.

They spruiked her on Get On last night, SC. Or maybe it was just us

Okay this is how I read it from a form analysis point of view.

There are only two horses in the race with a recent 1000m Flemington run is Glenall who ran 2nd to Belwazi in the Kensington. He carried 57.5 and got beaten a quarter of a length in a time of 57.72.

The track record is held by her majesty Black Caviar at 55.42 carrying 56.5kgs.

Miss Rock also ran in the Kensington and got beaten 2.25 lengths carrying 58.5kgs.

Sunlight has had one run at the track and distance for a third.

No other horse in the race except the 2yo, has run the course and distance.

So we see that Glenall meets Miss Rock 3 kilos worse, from the Kensington so on that alone he can not win. Miss Rock is not a 1000m horse and so she can not win. Sunlight is not a 1000m horse, so she can not win, that knocks them all out.

Written By's form is scratchy at best, however he was carrying the penalties and ran well, but not great in the Coolmore after having every hope.

Divine Quality is not a wfa horse so she is eliminated.

Battle Hero is off a long break, his two 1000m runs have been good, but he is up in grade here, although his Rock Magic form ties him in, if he is near peak fitness he could finish top four.

Lean Mean Machine, for me needs a wet track to win at 1000m. His form is okay, but he needs to step out of the 3yo class.

Graff has had the run at open wfa in the Everest and it was a cracking run, coming back from the Golden Rose and also on that bottomless track. His only dry track run was a close 3rd in the Golden Rose after leading at the 200m.

Osborne Bulls Everest run was good but the 1000m is my worry. No problem wfa and no problem down the straight.

In Her Time is the foolproof entrant. Can sit forward, her two wfa runs last spring (forget the Everest) were sensational, and Lees has had her for the full pre-trining and her trials have been good. 1000m is no trouble.

Jedastar. Carried 56 when she ran 57.76 for her debut win at 1000m. Is fully fit. Will be forward and has the ability to kick at the 200m.

Basically the weight is only a factor in what time you think she can run. If she can run a 57.76 with the 56 kilos, then you would think that she could take some off that, if she performs at the same level she did at her debut.

Breaking 56 is not an option for this field so if you have them running somewhere around say 56.4 or 5, then she may be able to shave enough off the 57.76 to finish top four.

If I knew the inside hard up on the fence was the place to be, she would be in the top four raters, however if she has to work to cross the field and get towards the outside, then the last 150m is the problem.    

Her only two runs at 1000m were not her best effort.

Now I will grant you that her spring fresh run was on a soft track, and she may be better on dry, but if you are saying that that run was her best for the spring, I have to disagree.

The ratings from her two 1000m runs are nowehere near her best ratings, so there for on the ratings, for me shi is better suited at 1200m.

Prob won't be backing her, but Miss Rock will be going in my exotics at $71, she won't be far away...

I'm inclined to think this is a very good race today , open with a number of top chances, I came down to two In Her Time and the Bull but the one I'm most respectful of is Graff, the jockey will suit this horse down to the ground , reckon they could be coming from all angles with a hundred to go.

Heavy10 wrote: Prob won't be backing her, but Miss Rock will be going in my exotics at $71, she won't be far away...

She ran a cracker at $151..ran 5th, not sure why he was intent on getting wide, could have followed winner