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2019 Melbourne Cup |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 7:04pm |
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reductio ad absurdum
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correctweight
Champion Joined: 20 May 2010 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 2560 |
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Going really early I see
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Ghostwatch just won in nice style at Ascot.
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Ghostwatch................
Extra Brut...................105 Stars Of Carrum.........95 Alessandro..................67 Grey Khan...................60 WHat sort of handicapping is this ? 5 kgs difference between Extra Brut and Stars Of Carrum is bullgelati. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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What price Who Shot Thebarman
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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From that race 45 minutes ago.
Finche and Marmelo the two for next year. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45820 |
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Thought another NH 3yo in Rostropovich was also super today. Never better than 4 wide without cover throughout and a huge effort to guts it out for 5th.
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Smoke and Mirrors
Champion Joined: 10 Sep 2016 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 1396 |
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Winner will be trained at Werribee
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"Go Hard or Go Home”
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 30 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41547 |
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Not doubting you know more than me, but they just said its off to Dubai ???
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animals before people.
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Smoke and Mirrors
Champion Joined: 10 Sep 2016 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 1396 |
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This is the thread for next years Cup. All I meant was, trained at Werribee - another international winning |
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"Go Hard or Go Home”
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 30 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41547 |
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Ohhh
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animals before people.
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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Chapada
Visao |
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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I am very eager to see how Waller trains Finche over the next 12 months.
A nice soft Lloyd autumn campaign starting off in the Australian Cup, then into the Tancred and then either the Sydney Cup or Queen Elizabeth should tick him over nicely. If he does the old start him at 1200 or 1400m, and runs him every fortnight, then he ruins the horse. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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The race has zero interest for me now as far as betting goes. What is next year's winner, another NH 3YO, up to at the moment?
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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To answer my own question, at this time last year Cross Counter was unraced. I've just come across something interesting. The racingpost form says "gelding notification", after he won his first two starts. Did they geld him after his first two starts, which sounds very odd to me, or is that when the public was notified he was a gelding, also odd, or is just the weird way racingpost format their form? |
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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If Cross Counter returns...what weight would he get roughly?
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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TOLEDO
Champion Joined: 17 Jul 2009 Status: Offline Points: 604 |
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cross counter would get about 56kg i reckon
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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I reckon around 55kg...providing he doesnt win much from here on in towards the Cup. |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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TOLEDO
Champion Joined: 17 Jul 2009 Status: Offline Points: 604 |
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Probably closer to 57 actually. he was 4.5kg under wfa so assume 2.5kg penalty to 2kg under wfa
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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I thought they didn't geld horses in England. What happened to this poor fellow, Djebel?
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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57kg makes it tough to win |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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They are not as geld happy as our self serving trainers. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Jaameh and Sully both failed to boost their ratings high enough to guarantee a slot in next years Cup.
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reductio ad absurdum
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mikey
Champion Joined: 01 Nov 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 511 |
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The rise in weight for Cross Counter will be partially offset by the fact that he will be fully grown & developed in another 12 months. His win was extraordinary and you would have to go back to Kiwi in 1983 to find a winner as strong through the line. I think he could well be very competitive again with a weight of 56-57kgs.
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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In the last twenty years only four horses have carried 56kg or more and won the Melbourne Cup:
1997: Might And Power (56kg) 2005: Makybe Diva (58kg) 2006: Delta Blues (56kg) 2014: Protectionist (56.5kg) If he gets more then 55.5kg then I won't be backing him. Yes you can all call me harsh and crazy but thats my line of thinking. Not many win the Cup with 56kg or more...it's simply too hard. Some place...which is a good effort...but not many win. |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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It is not a case of simply being too hard. In that same period how many horses have carried more than 56 kgs. In 20 years there'd have been close to 240 horses start in the race. 80% would have carried less than 56. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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I am hearing, that Charlie thinks he is a high grade 2400m horse and that we will not even see him next year.
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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Maybe the Arc could be on the cards? |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Grey Affair
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2017 Location: Queensland Status: Online Points: 3003 |
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Geldings cannot run in the Arc. |
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mikey
Champion Joined: 01 Nov 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 511 |
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2019 Melbourne Cup.
Cross Counter Rekindling Latrobe Could all be there! The race just gets stronger & stronger. Think we might be seeing the beginnings of a breeding industry for stayers emerging in Australia too. The Fiorente's are getting a mention & Lloyd has kept Rekindling/Johannes Vermeer in Australia who are ready made Stallions. Apparently he is also considering keeping Latrobe in Australia? |
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