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2019 Melbourne Cup |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Posted: 27 Apr 2020 at 10:03pm |
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They all have markets up. They should be up to date. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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You mean they are taking all-in bets on the 2020 MC, in the current uncertainty ?
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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As far as I can see NO bookmakers have seen the need to add Haky to the Melbourne Cup markets.
Amateurs fair dinkum amateurs. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Why would the draw put you off? Cup winners have won from wide gates |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I didn't back the winner because of the draw .. ( my point ) but was in my top few. Ratings are as good as ever . Even back to the Cliff Carey era . ( Don Scott put the best of the best past ratings into his value pricing & changed The Punt for a lot of people ) GREAT work. The problem facing the punt today is the never ending drain on the Punter Dollar to buy toys for the likes of V'Landy. He doubled the take out percentages on NSW racing and we punters still line up . We are reaching the stage where poker machines are better value ( Yoke Yoyce ) as Graham Kennedy Would say . Merry Xmas to you & yours. |
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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The only thing that stinks and is rated as a fail is doing ratings with hindsight!
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I've been catching up on my ratings & crying about all the winners I missed . Voyager is always miles ahead with his work, Ratings and selections and I balance up by being always miles behind . Some are worse than me and tip after the Races. Congratulations on your observations and seizing an opportunity to make a name for yourself . You failed ... It still stinks , as always. |
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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Is it 16 November or December today? Or did someone just wake up from a coma
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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The Ratings for the Melb Cup did brilliant. Had about 10 chances .
The Countries best Jockey , combined by his best ride ever , showed his Caulfield Cup , very wide run , was the key to the Grand Final . Williams went forward and won the Cup twice, being in front at winning post both times. His (Shane Dye) ride on a very wide drawn stayer = Genius . Lead, Take a sit , 1st prize thank you. |
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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fiddlesticks, they make it difficult.
At the recent Melbourne City Council meeting there was a motion put forward, to eliminate the Melbourne Cup parade. The motion was put forward by a greens councillor, and another wept as she told of her horror that her council supported such a barbaric industry. Any type of activist, protestor or radical extreme supporter of anything are the individuals who strengthen the voice of those who do not want change. I am absolutely 100% serious when I say this. These individuals, will not stop until every person stops consuming animals for food, we all stop having pets, and the only animals on the planet are wild. I am all for promoting, supporting and overseeing animal protection, but we all need to be very careful, that we do not allow a section of the community to dictate what we all think, we have already been through that when the church was more influential, and we have seen what happened in those days. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Prince Of Arran off to HK. Original idea was Japan Cup but no barrier blankets are allowed so he is off to HK
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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All the ratings systems are flawed.
The logic behind them is outdated. The rating for il paradiso is overinflated. He got baulked over last 50m. Probably cost him half length at most. It was a low rating slowly run cup with a very bunched finish. How he is rated 5 points higher than v+d is not logical. How he is rated 4 above master of reality who carried a lot more weight is also not logical. |
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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And also Timeform is for performances
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Carpenter is not part of the Timeform team in Australia. Carpenter is the Australian rep for the Lingines IFHA (International Federation of Horseracing Authorities) Each rep from each country meet to discuss the ratings for best races horse in the world for awards. For me more info on that..see link below: https://www.longines.com.au/universe/events-sports/rankings/race-horse-rankings Timeform is different and they use different methods. However I use Timeform ratings over the Longines ratings. |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Grey Affair
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2017 Location: Queensland Status: Offline Points: 2976 |
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I hope I didn't sound argumentative. I didn't mean to as I agree with your comments. Often, the reason young horses perform well as 2yo & 3yo is because they have matured earlier than their contemporaries & they may have no or little improvement left as they grow older, certainly in comparison to the WFA scale. You raise a very good point as to whether ratings services should allow for improvement. |
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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I do think what you said was correct, but it should not be, so I was agreeing with you, and having a dig at Timeform
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Grey Affair
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2017 Location: Queensland Status: Offline Points: 2976 |
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I'm not saying I agree with it. Also, many would suggest that the allowance for 3yos is far greater than it should be. |
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Grey Affair
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2017 Location: Queensland Status: Offline Points: 2976 |
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Like it or not, that is the reason! |
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18699 |
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I would understand that GA, but for one thing. He has already been given the advantage by carrying less weight!, That factor should have already been used in the rating of the performance, there should be no need for adjustment in a handicap race. You can not put up a rating in Timeform, for potential. In this race he was carrying less weight than the older POA, but POA's, form was analysed as being only slightly better than the 3yo's. And do not forget Carpenter is a member of the Timeform group for this region of the world, I hope I have read that correctly. Either the Timeform rating is on a specific performance or it is not. Either way I have a very cautious view of Timeform ratings, regardless of where the rating is given. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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The ratings are from Timeform Australia
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Grey Affair
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2017 Location: Queensland Status: Offline Points: 2976 |
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Il Paradiso probably gets an additional 9 or 10 pounds for being a Northern Hemisphere 3yo. |
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17253 |
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Timeform is an overpriced con
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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In your opinion what rating did Il Paradiso deserve?
Edited by Gay3 - 09 Nov 2019 at 8:46pm |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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The high rating for il paradise is another example of how ridiculous timeform ratings are.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Timeform Ratings - 2019 Melbourne Cup
1st: Vow And Declare: 117 2nd: Prince Of Arran: 115 3rd: Il Paradiso: 122 4th: Master Of Reality: 118 5th: Surprise Baby: 113 6th: Mer De Glace: 118 7th: Finche: 113 8th: Cross Counter: 121 9th: Steel Prince: 110 10th: Magic Wand: 109 11th: Twilight Payment: 112 12th: Sound: 109 13th: Constantinople: 117 14th: Mirage Dancer: 113 15th: Hunting Horn: 111 16th: Raymond Tusk: 109+ 17th: The Chosen One: 110 18th: Latrobe: 108 19th: Southern France: 109 20th: Youngstar: 101 21st: Neufbosc: 103 22nd: Downdraft: 102 23rd: Mistajeer: 102 24th: Rostropovoch: No Rating |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6643 |
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Timeform is such a dull way to rate races.
I prefer to rate races on the excitement factor. For me the highest rating Melb Cups of the last decade are V&D and PoP. The lowest excitement factor were C.Counter & Rekindling. |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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Timeform UK/Timeform Australia: Cup Winners and their rating for Winning the Melbourne Cup - Past 20 Years
2019: Vow And Declare: 117/117 2018: Cross Counter: 124/124 2017: Rekindling: 123/123 2016 Almandin: 119/119 2015: Prince Of Penzance: 117/119 2014: Protectionist: 128/128 2013: Fiorente: 125/125 2012: Green Moon: 124/124 2011: Dunaden: 124/124 2010: Americain: 126/126 2009: Shocking: 117/119 2008: Viewed: 120/120 2007: Efficient: 123 2006: Delta Blues: 125/125 2005: Makybe Diva: 128/128 2004: Makybe Diva: 124/125 2003 Makybe Diva: 114/117 2002: Media Puzzle: 117/117 2001: Ethereal: 119/119 2000: Brew: 111/114 1999: Rogan Josh: 114/114 Edited by Gay3 - 09 Nov 2019 at 8:45pm |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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I don't know what other winners have rated but it surely should be one of the lowest rated Cups. Farcically run and an extremely bunched finish.
I'd rate Craig Williams 130 on Timeform and the rest of the field -13. Anyway this is what we are likely to keep getting in the years to come when the Irish dominate the race. 7 runners between Aidan and Joseph O Brien and they colluded to give it to one of their runners. Instead of putting genuine pace they sat and made it a 600m sprint home. But that is what happens in most Irish races where they dominate the field. Master of Reality,Latrobe and Twilight Payment all have no reservoir of stamina over 3200m and their only chance was to try and steal it. Interestingly none of the Coolmore/Aidan runners decided to go forward except Hunting Horn who decided he'd sit 3 wide with no cover and not attack the leading duo. Or was it to force anything that wanted to go forward to have to travel 4 wide? Yet jockey of Hunting Horn still complained that the pace was too slow!
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31290 |
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Would be interesting to see the deductive process that Jamal used to back Vow and Declare Australian stayers are krapp - first premise The mystery part for Jamal to write - second premise Back Vow and Declare - conclusion
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8659 |
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So Timeform UK gave a rating of 117 for Vow And Declare's Cup win. It will be interesting to see what rating Timeform Australia give.
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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