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Avilius

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MJB View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:30pm
I'll put the hand up. Good ride Glyn. It's alot easier when they're strung along but still a good ride.

I expected the horse to win by more at the top of the straight. He was absolutely jogging.

Will he get two miles?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:31pm
Protest
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:32pm
Yeah he actually got off the fence at the right time. Doubted Glyn but great ride if he loses this on protest it won't be his fault. Horse wanted to go back to the rail himself.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:34pm
He had to straighten up 3 or 4 times he should have won by a lot further. Protest is frivolous at best.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Heavenly Glow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:35pm
Walker is dreaming, but I once seen Solar Antiquity lose a protest I never thought could possibly be lost. So, you never know until you try.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:39pm
The thing in Walker's favour is the margin is virtually nothing. So if the Stewards deem interference to have been caused, it's likely to be upheld.

But in saying that, in my opinion there's very little interference. Should be dismissed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:52pm
Looked to be jogging at the 200 then fell in. No chance in the Cup for mine.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:53pm
Interesting fact for the cup.

Schofield has only had 3 rides in the race 3rd on Mourilyan behind Shocking and fourth on Kellini for Waller.

This might be my biggest winner since Jezabeel in 1998!
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Heavy10 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:57pm
Is it in Caulfield Cup? Won't be winning Melbourne cup on that run, looks long odds to get 3200...unless its a jog n sprint
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:58pm
Has 53kg in the Cup...will he get a weight penalty? The margin was very very small so perhaps no penalty but we will find out next week when Carpenter announces a penalty or no penalty.
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote anabel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:01pm
I don’t think he’ll stay, but gee I wish he was an entire.. he is magnificent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:05pm
Originally posted by Heavy10 Heavy10 wrote:

Is it in Caulfield Cup? Won't be winning Melbourne cup on that run, looks long odds to get 3200...unless its a jog n sprint


Would need a hefty penalty from today to get in, I would have thought. Won’t get one.
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MJB View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:12pm
He'll definitely take his place in the Melbourne Cup.

They have the option of having a hit out in the Cox Plate if they want another run in between.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:14pm
Do not undersell the runner up there!
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kingy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:56pm
How on earth was that protest dismissed so quickly??? I'm probably talking through my pocket but if you just look at the angle from the fence, JAAMEH makes up, as it draws level AVILIUS rolls in, Walker can't use the whip and there's such a bump that you actually see JAAMEH's head turn to see a "what the f was that" moment.
I was all for upheld.

Obviously the stewards saw something else and Glynn & James were talking like they were defeated and really had nothing to say that would make me believe that AVILIUS would have won if there was no interference.

That was the most bewildering protest I've seen. No way that was dismissed. That was a shocking decision imo. JAAMEH should have won the race on protest imo.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 9:04pm
Avilius drifted in toward the rail in Sydney too. And without the whip.
In Melbourne Grimm may need to practice his left hand whip action.

I haven't written him off for the Cups.
He carried weight today and will drop significantly for both races.
I don't care which one he races in either because I'll be having something on him either way.

Gear change maybe.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 9:23pm
Winning The Bart Cummings was a special moment for James, he nearly broke down. Can James win the Cup? The Cummings family have won 13...Bart won 12 and his father won 1...can James make it number 14??

I know time moves on but it just doesn't seem the same without Bart.
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 10:29pm
Winning this race to day he's knocked out a few hopefuls so they will have to find another way to come in the back door, his sire won a Kings Stand 5 Furlongs, and a Nunthorthe
( I think 6 Furlongs) so he's a bit freakish, if they press ahead with the MC they will go the
Emerates for a clean out for the cup imo, change of plans could see a CoxPlate then Emerates and paddock .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horlicks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 10:54pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Winning this race to day he's knocked out a few hopefuls so they will have to find another way to come in the back door, his sire won a Kings Stand 5 Furlongs, and a Nunthorthe
( I think 6 Furlongs) so he's a bit freakish, if they press ahead with the MC they will go the
Emerates for a clean out for the cup imo, change of plans could see a CoxPlate then Emerates and paddock .


All James said after the race was that the MC was the target and as he was now assured a start they would look at what if any lead up races would be considered.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 11:45pm
Originally posted by horlicks horlicks wrote:

Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Winning this race to day he's knocked out a few hopefuls so they will have to find another way to come in the back door, his sire won a Kings Stand 5 Furlongs, and a Nunthorthe
( I think 6 Furlongs) so he's a bit freakish, if they press ahead with the MC they will go the
Emerates for a clean out for the cup imo, change of plans could see a CoxPlate then Emerates and paddock .


All James said after the race was that the MC was the target and as he was now assured a start they would look at what if any lead up races would be considered.

Just having a bit of fun reading the tea leaves mate, the blue team have a few in this cup, I would like to see him run but he'll need at least a run before hand , could well be the
" practice Stakes".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 1:16am
Is there any reason they don't go for the Caulfield Cup?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 1:18am
Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

Is there any reason they don't go for the Caulfield Cup?
Order of entry I'm guessing.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mikey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 1:07pm
It is never easy to win over a staying trip high in the weights in decent class races. In modern times the only horse that i have seen do it is Makybe Diva.

Avilius will drop down nicely in weights for the MC - has to be considered a leading chance imho.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 1:26pm
I've changed my mind a bit after watching the replay. Glyn rode it perfectly up until the stage when the horse wanted to lay in. How come he didn't put the stick in his left hand? Doesn't he possess that in his arsenal?

A good jockey these days needs to be able to use the whip in both hands. I'm surprised he didn't on this occasion.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 1:56pm
Sydney jockeys were always taught during their apprenticeship to do stable chores with both hands for this very purpose, of all the jockeys I've seen in my youth Jack Thompson
was the only one who stayed r/h , it was nothing to see Moore,Selwood, Camer or Arthur
Ward switch to l/h or r/h in the straight, walkers horse came out slightly in the last 50m it may have stopped Schofield from switching.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 2:20pm
Originally posted by mikey mikey wrote:

It is never easy to win over a staying trip high in the weights in decent class races. In modern times the only horse that i have seen do it is Makybe Diva.

Avilius will drop down nicely in weights for the MC - has to be considered a leading chance imho.


How often have you seen it attempted ?

reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 3:02pm
Almandin won the BC with 55kgs before winning the Cup with 52kgs.
WSTB won the BC with 57.5 before running 3rd in the Cup with 55kgs.

Avilius won the BC with 58.5 and drops to 53kgs in the Cup, unless there is a penalty.

Avilius drops 5.5kgs.
Almandin dropped 3kgs.
WSTB dropped 2.5kgs.


I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 7:52pm
It's a reasonable point but Almandin won the BC in a canter and looked for all the world like he'd go another lap. WSTB  is at his best at 3200, year in year out. Looked to my eye the 2500 saw Avilius out. Weight relief in the Cup won't be enough.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 8:06pm
3200m out of the question for mine also.

Rather see him back to 2000m for the Cox (can certainly run a drum) and then into the $1m 2000m race on the final day of the VRC carnival.  But can't see that happening.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Oct 2018 at 10:09pm
I would back Jameeh to beat him over 2 miles if they were to meet again.
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