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Avilius |
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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Godolphin stuffed up by pulling Hartnell from the Caul Cup for the Cox Plate/Melb Cup.
Now with Avilius they have thrown away their best chance of a Grp 1 for a chance to win the Melb Cup, via the Caul Cup? He's very capable of winning the CC and I hope he does because I've been on him for weeks and had nothing on for the Metrop but the reasoning for him not running is clear enough. The Sheik has already won a Caul Cup with All The Good.(I think) So far as I know he doesn't have a Cox Plate or Melb Cup winner so it seems Avilius must be their best chance to claim one for the Sheik, but he aint gonna be beaten up on Winx in the Cox Plate so it's gotta be the Melb Cup. A mere consolation prize. Cox Plate next year. lol
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Heavenly Glow
Champion Joined: 24 Aug 2009 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1569 |
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Magic Hurricane was penalised 2.5kgs for his Metrop win in 2015. If Avilius were to line up in the Metrop and smash that field - which he probably would have - then he'd be looking at a similar weight penalty. Perhaps even more than 2.5kgs.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Online Points: 21836 |
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So what race did he cop the extra 2-5kg for, I see he won with 55-5kg as you said but never won another race and carried 54-5 kg the following year in the Metrop.?
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Online Points: 11731 |
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Horse has got to get into the CC first. Currently 57th in order of entry. Would only get in with a penalty you’d think. Looks like they’re putting all their eggs in the MC basket. |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45820 |
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Suspect they think he's brilliant enough to win one of the number of ballot-exempt CC qualifying races.
And reckon they could be right.
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Online Points: 11731 |
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Except they’re not going to those, they’re going to the BC. A non exempt (for the CC) G3 race.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45820 |
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Excuse my usual ignorance Judge, but what's the BC?
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SHOVHOG
Champion Joined: 20 Apr 2014 Status: Offline Points: 1447 |
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Feel for the punters who Bet into this market and I dare say futures markets will lose a lot of future customers .....
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" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Online Points: 11731 |
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The Bart Cummings on Turnbull day. Can’t see him going from there to any of the CC exempt races. Reckon the odds of a CC start have plummeted. |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45820 |
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Thanks
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Online Points: 21836 |
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Very similar profiles I find interesting , Rekindling D.O.B. March 2014, Avilius D.O.B.May 2014, both have had 10 starts, Rek. 4wins, AV.5wins, Rekindling is the one that interests me, winning the MC so young must have had a wonderful prep. and great lung capacity,at least this horse has had the extra year to develope, the thing that bugs me ( really lol) is this was not an original plan , Rekindling was.
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Some strange decisions going on with this horse.
In my opinion, the 2nd best horse currently in Australia. But the decisions being made, it seems they may even go Cox Plate, to Melbourne Cup. They certainly seem all about the Melbourne Cup now. Cant blame them. But why not the Metrop? Confusing. Metrop horses go good in Melbourne Cup I thought?? Either way, this is a serious horse. Big Duke aint no slouch and Avilius skipped away from him at the 300m.
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correctweight
Champion Joined: 20 May 2010 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 2560 |
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At the price currently he is a massive lay. Very arrogant missing a Group 1 at his mercy to persue this race to get into the cup. Bow has barrier 1 on a short run into the corner will get burried 5 back on the fence and with Glyn on he might never get out in the straight. Needs big time luck.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Online Points: 21836 |
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The more I look at this horses last start the warmer I become , this has been a bold move by James and after seeing Dominic Bierne in the winning party after the Epsom the young mane has a great analogicall brain in his corner ( my take only) I hope this horse wins like the good horse he is , then it's on to the MC.
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correctweight
Champion Joined: 20 May 2010 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 2560 |
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Nothing wrong with his ability. Best horse in the race. Just the worst mapped horse in the field. Watch twitter explode after.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Online Points: 21836 |
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Suspect the field may string out a bit will give him a chance to get off the fence and in the running line and take it from there, ( well that's how I see it lol) .
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Heavenly Glow
Champion Joined: 24 Aug 2009 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1569 |
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Second best horse in Australia IMO. But I can't see him getting a clear run from the barrier. Will be hard held to the line, not even out of first gear, lap full of horse but no where to go. Be surprised if it even runs a place.
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Has 2500m of the biggest track in the country and a horse with a lightning turn of foot to find his way out.
Even Glyn can't f&%k this one .
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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Hard to see anything beating him if he has any luck.
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Glyn Schofield barrier 1 at Flemington. Disaster waiting to happen.
Leave me out of this one boys. |
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Prince of Penzance
Champion Joined: 17 Jan 2018 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1938 |
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Surely it’s a sit and steer job for Glynn.
But what are the chances he buggers it up? Still, I’ll having something on |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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Copying what Williams does seems like a good MC plan to me.
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Online Points: 11731 |
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Hope he wins because I’d like to see him in the Cup, though I suppose he could still go to the Lexus, or whatever the hell they call it this year. I think the scratchings help, but those odds look pretty poisonous to me for a horse with his racing pattern. Hopefully out to 2500 he can settle closer.
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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If Avilius gets beat today it won't be the barrier that beat him.
Barrier 1 at Flemington over 2500m = no consequence. The weight he is carrying could be a game changer though. He's been beating up on B graders with less weight but now has to give weight to the strongest field he has ever faced. I think the big Flemington straight will suit his racing pattern and he will get to use his final sprint again to show why he is so highly regarded. Track bias .................................... |
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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I think he's a good chance today but unlike others here I think it's an open race.
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Nick
Champion Joined: 21 Mar 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3455 |
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Will win!!
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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I agree with Bonfield, Harder race than he has faced up here.
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reductio ad absurdum
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11400 |
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With Glynn on board,and being so short,he is just as likely to settle with the clerk of the course |
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Prince of Penzance
Champion Joined: 17 Jan 2018 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1938 |
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I’m also having something on Yogi.
Wrong race for him last start, they wanted to run in the Naturalism but he was balloted out. Out to his right distance, he can run a cheeky race. Would love to see a Raise the Flag in the MC |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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I agree. |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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