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Henry Dwyer - Event Date: 26 Jun 2018 - 26 Jun 2019

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Discohips23 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 26 Jun 2018 at 10:43pm
Has anyone noticed how bad the Henry Dwyer stable is going at the moment?.

Since the 5/5/2018, the day his stable representative got caught with tubing equipment at Morphettville, he has had 103 runners for 7 winners, obviously that's less than 7% winners to runners. Racing Victoria has his career stats at 14% and his last 50 starters at 4%. Not sure what conclusion to draw from this?.
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anabel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote anabel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jun 2018 at 10:57pm
Seems to be losing a few horses to other trainers too.
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Sir Gov View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sir Gov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jun 2018 at 11:07pm
Very ordinary stats to say the least!
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Discohips23 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Discohips23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jun 2018 at 11:25pm
It's hard not to think the Morphettville incident has played a major role in these figures.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Smoke and Mirrors Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jun 2018 at 11:45pm
Caulfield is cursed. Wouldn’t have my horse trained there full stop ✋
"Go Hard or Go Home”
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Discohips23 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Discohips23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jun 2018 at 11:50pm
Did Dwyer ever work for Aquanita?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Smoke and Mirrors Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:06am
Yeah I think he worked for Stuart webb
"Go Hard or Go Home”
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Sir Gov View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sir Gov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:08am
#Neerim Lodge
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Discohips23 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Discohips23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:22am
Easy to assume he's been around the very best of the best then.
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monty1 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote monty1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:27am
Originally posted by Discohips23 Discohips23 wrote:

Easy to assume he's been around the very best of the best then.
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linghi11 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linghi11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:28am
For crying out loud, there’s only one thing one can think! Not so hot without the funnel, like the rest of the Aquachearer outfit.
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Discohips23 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Discohips23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:36am
Well without a bout of Equine Influenza, the Hendra Virus, or a stable fire that has decimated his numbers, it seems that way. Very interested to know where the SA Stewards are at with it?
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linghi11 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linghi11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:46am
Originally posted by Discohips23 Discohips23 wrote:

Well without a bout of Equine Influenza, the Hendra Virus, or a stable fire that has decimated his numbers, it seems that way. Very interested to know where the SA Stewards are at with it?


Head in the sand? 4 years as foreman for Smerdon must have rubbed off.
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Discohips23 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Discohips23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:54am
Suppose we will have to wait and see. He's obviously left the funnel & hose at home since May!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote adolphus twirk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 1:17am
Statistics are shocking and dropped alarmingly since Adelaide. If a horse cannot win once in every ten starts which is about one and a half preps it is running at s huge loss to the owners. Extrapolating these stats a winner rate of 4 to 7 % is poison.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 2:13am
Doesn't look good but there are many reasons why small stables especially might have runs of outs. Heathcote's not small but he's not having a great run of late. John Thompson also seems to have been off the boil lately. Probably plenty more. I've been waiting to see how the Currie stable goes but I doubt Qld is as actively vigilant as other jurisdictions. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote monty1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 2:29am
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Doesn't look good but there are many reasons why small stables especially might have runs of outs. Heathcote's not small but he's not having a great run of late. John Thompson also seems to have been off the boil lately. Probably plenty more. I've been waiting to see how the Currie stable goes but I doubt Qld is as actively vigilant as other jurisdictions. 

I wouldn’t say his stable his small, have you looked at the horses on his books, small to me is around the 20-30 mark.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote monty1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 2:34am
I did notice that he got a lot of the head of the Aquacheaters horses. They really like to keep them in the same fold don’t they. He got a lot as did Sadler.
Interesting to see Smerdons Mrs at the races at Flemington last Saturday on the Nature Strip winning group, she obviously has no shame.
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 3:14am
Originally posted by monty1 monty1 wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Doesn't look good but there are many reasons why small stables especially might have runs of outs. Heathcote's not small but he's not having a great run of late. John Thompson also seems to have been off the boil lately. Probably plenty more. I've been waiting to see how the Currie stable goes but I doubt Qld is as actively vigilant as other jurisdictions. 

I wouldn’t say his stable his small, have you looked at the horses on his books, small to me is around the 20-30 mark.

No and even looking at his website didn't help because I don't know many of those listed. The point is not numbers on books it's how many are in training and how many of those are capable of winning races. Any ideas?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Campaspe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 11:31am
Based on stable returns on the trainer portal, 137 including 16 unnmaed, 36 spelling.
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Discohips23 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Discohips23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 11:52am
Originally posted by Campaspe Campaspe wrote:

Based on stable returns on the trainer portal, 137 including 16 unnmaed, 36 spelling.


Yeah. Hardly a small trainer
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:17pm
So about 100 in training at various stages of their preps.

Which of those should have been winning based on form (supposedly assisted) since the reveal?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linghi11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:17pm
Stables ebb and flow - and often ebb after a stable rep is caught tubing raceday.
Stewards have to ok any transfers of horses from the disqualified parties and to leave them with the rest of Aquanita is laughable. Are we expecting some slow down from Shea Eden now too?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:31pm
Originally posted by linghi11 linghi11 wrote:

Stables ebb and flow - and often ebb after a stable rep is caught tubing raceday.
Stewards have to ok any transfers of horses from the disqualified parties and to leave them with the rest of Aquanita is laughable. Are we expecting some slow down from Shea Eden now too?

Sounds entirely reasonable. How often? Any stats to back it up or casual observations? 

What I want to know is this. How is it that NSW could/would go to the extreme of charging Cody Morgan (for a similar infraction from memory) with race fixing while others eg Brian Sylvia have faced lesser charges? Will Smerdon et al face race fixing charges? Unlikely. If not why not? Obviously the Morgan case hasn't had the required impact on prospective TCO2 cheats.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 12:42pm
Bjorn Baker knows all about ebbs and flows.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linghi11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 1:09pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Originally posted by linghi11 linghi11 wrote:

Stables ebb and flow - and often ebb after a stable rep is caught tubing raceday.
Stewards have to ok any transfers of horses from the disqualified parties and to leave them with the rest of Aquanita is laughable. Are we expecting some slow down from Shea Eden now too?


Sounds entirely reasonable. How often? Any stats to back it up or casual observations? 

What I want to know is this. How is it that NSW could/would go to the extreme of charging Cody Morgan (for a similar infraction from memory) with race fixing while others eg Brian Sylvia have faced lesser charges? Will Smerdon et al face race fixing charges? Unlikely. If not why not? Obviously the Morgan case hasn't had the required impact on prospective TCO2 cheats.


Casual observation. These cases often follow similar routines - smaller stables caught raceday, go quiet, then have a few winners before the disqualification begins to tide them over, get some on-camera commiserations from moron journalists about how hard done by they are. Or big stables go quiet, find some excuse as to why it happened, get fined, keep going.

I think the only reason Morgan was charged is because police had the phone taps, and he got off so lightly that it’s hardly a deterrent. It may be hard to successfully prosecute such cases and racing authorities would prefer it was all swept under the carpet so as to not affect turnover and get more bad press.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote adolphus twirk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 9:25pm
Bottom line is that honest trainers and their owners are running second to cheats.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Discohips23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 9:29pm
Originally posted by adolphus twirk adolphus twirk wrote:

Bottom line is that honest trainers and their owners are running second to cheats.
100% Correct
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Discohips23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 9:46pm
What I find hard to cop is how the common racing media give the cheats so much radio and tv time to promote their businesses. There are plenty of good stories out there that can be asked of trainers that don’t have a rap sheet a mile long. And to hear some racing media personalities talk about how disappointing it was not to have Smerdon show up to his hearing and defend his actions. How about forgetting the times you all partook in some “mutual media felatio” with him, jump in your car, drive up to his door and demand answers. They’d have no drama if it was a footballer or a cricketer and had to report it. Not sure if it’s true but I’ve heard that Four Corners are going to run a story about the industry. I sincerely hope for sake of all the hard working, honest trainers and participants out there, something good comes from it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linghi11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2018 at 10:06pm
That story is out 12th of July I believe.
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