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2018 W.S Cox Plate 2040m |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Posted: 07 Jun 2018 at 1:47pm |
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Cracksman headlines international invitation list for 2018 Cox PlateBy James Lamb about an hour ago This is what they are chasingImage: Getty The first round of international invites for this year's Cox Plate have been released, with UK star Cracksman headlining a list of 13 gallopers.
The John Gosden-trained Cracksman, a winner of seven of his nine starts, has stepped out twice this year for Group One wins in the Prix Ganay and Coronation Cup. Moonee Valley Racing Club CEO Michael Browell is hopeful the recent $2 million prizemoney injection will entice Cracksman and other international stars to chase the Plate. "We are confident we can entice horses on the world stage to compete at The Valley in what is now the richest Group 1 turf race at 2000m in the world,” said Browell. “Working with the MVRC Committee and Paul Bloodworth and the team at Racing Victoria, we have identified what we believe to be the best Weight-for-Age horses and we hope they are keen to take on Winx and create a brilliant spectacle,” explained Browell. The full list of WFA stars can be viewed below, with a real mix of UK, Irish, UAE, French, American and Japanese horses. There is however a conspicuous absence of Hong Kong-trained gallopers, which is due to quarantine restrictions. “Quarantine issues unfortunately ruled out inviting some of the stars from Hong Kong, however this is something we are hoping to rectify in the near future,” said Racing Victoria's Paul Bloodworth. Aidan O'Brien, who won the race in 2014 with Adelaide, has been issued with invitations for three of his emerging middle-distance gallopers, with Saxon Warrior the best hope of the trio according to the market. Godolphin will no doubt be tempted to bring one or both of Benbatl and Thunder Snow after Folkswood finished third in last year's Cox Plate behind Winx and Humidor. American stallion Yoshida, trained by William Mott, would be the first horse to travel from the United States to contest our premier WFA event. Six ballot exempt races for the Cox Plate are run each season and spots in the $5 million field are guaranteed to 2017 Japan Cup winner Cheval Grand, Australian Cup winner Harlem and ATC Australian Derby victor Levendi. Connections of the Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes, Caulfield Guineas and Caulfield Stakes winners in the spring will also have the option to contest the race if they choose. Winx, who is shooting for a historic fourth Cox Plate, is a $1.55 favourite for the race, ahead of Humidor at $15. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Morston
Champion Joined: 01 Aug 2011 Status: Offline Points: 704 |
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Why is Enable not on that wish list?
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Not a realistic chance ? There reallyn should be massive enticement over and above paying expenses. I suspect there'd be a slightly better chance of getting some serious stars if it was the Mackinnon that was invitational. It gives horses an extra 2 weeks after the Arc and they may at least think about it. Of that list I would suggest realistic prospects are Benbatl, Recoletos, Lancaster Bomber and Thunder Snow ( although more likely Breeders Cup ) Thunder Snow must be some chance as he is a potential shuttle stallion although they may think Helmet alone is a selling point. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Morston
Champion Joined: 01 Aug 2011 Status: Offline Points: 704 |
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The owners of most of these horses are not interested in the prize money.
Apart from some being aimed at the Arc and other prestigious races in Europe or the US, horses like Cracksman’s stud values make the Cox plate, or any other race’s price money look like chicken feed. |
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Speediskey
Champion Joined: 18 Feb 2014 Status: Offline Points: 4116 |
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When we have a horse like Winx they should be offering up a one off bonus of $5 million extra to get a horse like Cracksman out here if he beats her.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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As Morston said though, That would not entice his owner.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Mug-Punter
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2014 Location: Central Coast Status: Offline Points: 1007 |
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Can I ask 2 questions. 1. How many years have the international invitations gone out? 2. How many of that number (1st invite only) have ever come? The invites are always the best of the best but seriously, anyone who follows racing knows Cracksman isn’t coming!
I asked this earlier on twitter with no luck. Anyone know??? |
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The Mugg
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Mug-Punter
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2014 Location: Central Coast Status: Offline Points: 1007 |
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Q1 was 2011 apparently. |
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The Mugg
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pnclick
Champion Joined: 13 Mar 2009 Status: Offline Points: 1024 |
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Adelaide was an invite in 2013.
Couldn't imagine anyone wanting to come over last 2 years, due to the Winx dominance. This year could be a different, a case of Winx at the end of her reign, might not even get to the Cox Plate if she runs below normal at any run, so may be an incentive to target a couple at it.
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Whats the 3 year old list for the Cox Plate this year?
Just wanting to look at a new horse on the scene very low in the weights. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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3yos are NOT low in the weights. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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what you mean, they can carry 49.5kg?
fillies? |
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Tontonan
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2007 Status: Offline Points: 3898 |
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To share Djebel's belief that 49.5kg is not low in the weights you must believe that the Weight For Age scale is accurate in both its conception and application.
Of course 49.5kg is low in the weights. The lowest weight carried in the Cox Plate is 47.5kg by 3yo fillies. This up 1.5kg on what Miss Finland carried in 2006 because they fiddle the WFA scale regularly, which sort of makes a mockery of the scale being accurate in conception and application doesn't it ? For interest sake this is a list of all the fillies who have contested the Cox Plate : 1923 FRANCES TRESSADY 6TH 1942 PHILANDER 10TH 1964 REVEILLE 8TH 1970 SKY CALL 11TH 1975 DENISE'S JOY 8TH 1976 SURROUND WON 1978 PRUNELLA 10TH 1980 YIR TIZ 5TH 1982 ENGLISH WONDER 9TH 1983 PERFECT BLISS 8TH 1986 SOCIETY BAY 11TH 1987 MIDNIGHT FEVER 6TH 1988 GLENVIEW 10TH 1989 TRISTANAGH 7TH 1989 COURTZA 10TH 1992 SLIGHT CHANCE 3RD 2006 MISS FINLAND 6TH 2008 SAMANTHA MISS 3RD 2016 YANKEE ROSE 3RD 19 fillies have contested the race in 95 years - 1 winner 3 thirds |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Only 19 fillies have contested the race.
What a great record they have at stud Reveille - 2 stakes winners in the US Denise's Joy - Sunday Joy G1 Surround - 1 stakes winner Yir Tiz - Mr Tiz - Champion g1 English Wonder - Dr Grace g1 Perfect Bliss - 1 stakes winner Society Bay - 2 stakes winners Glenview - Timber Trader G1 Courtza - O'Reilly G1 - SIRE Slight Chance - 2 stakes winners and a good reasonable Dane Shadow Miss Finland - Stay With Me G1 Samantha Miss - Miss Fabulass G1 winner in waiting. That is a monumental strike rate for any subgroup of fillies/mares. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Tontonan
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2007 Status: Offline Points: 3898 |
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Surround's Sir Tristram colt Frame looked to be something special before he dropped dead after running a flashy second in the 1984 Blue Diamond Prelude. Heart attack.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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Miss Fabulass is the only 3yo I've seen that looks even remotely like a Cox Plate horse. But I have a golden rule- whenever I start considering a filly for the Cox Plate I bang my head ten times against a concrete wall and I usually snap out of it.
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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No need to bang your head, She aint entered.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45811 |
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Late entries permitted from memory, though happy to stand corrected.
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Speediskey
Champion Joined: 18 Feb 2014 Status: Offline Points: 4116 |
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If theres an owner that would be willing to pay for it she's found the one as well.
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Tontonan
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2007 Status: Offline Points: 3898 |
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The only fillies nominated (so far) are Futooh, El Dorado Dreaming and Asharani.
While only 19 fillies have contested the race 311 colts and geldings have contested the Cox plate since its inception in 1922. In total, factoring in the fillies 330 three year olds have contested the race and 20 have won. (The strike rate of 3YO males is 19/311 or 6.1%; the strike rate of fillies is 1/19 or 5.3%. 3yo's have won 20/97 or 20.6% of all Cox Plates) The Cox Plate was famous as a Derby trial. Between 1922 and 1989 287 three year olds ran in the Plate at an average of 4.16 per year. In that period there was only one year - 1929- when no 3YO took part. In 1942 a record 13 three year olds took part in a field on 19. Tranquil Star, a 5YO mare, romped home by 5 lengths. 6 years when no 3YO has taken part : 1929, 1993, 2003, 2007, 2010, 2015 Only 20 3YO's have taken part since 2001. 3YO Cox Plate winners Shamus Award 2013 So You Think (NZ) 2009 Savabeel 2004 Octagonal (NZ) 1995 Red Anchor (NZ) 1984 Surround (NZ) 1976 (filly) Taj Rossi 1973 Abdul (NZ) 1970 Daryl's Joy (NZ) 1969 Rajah Sahib (NZ) 1968 Star Affair 1965 Noholme 1959 Kingster 1955 Bronton 1951 Alister 1950 Delta 1949 Carbon Copy 1948 Chanak 1947 Garrio 1935 Manfred 1925 |
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speedingaway
Champion Joined: 03 Jan 2009 Location: Carlton Status: Offline Points: 632 |
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25 horses left in the Cox Plate - shouldn't get a third dividend going off the weakness of some of the horses still in.
ARBEITSAM - 59kg AVILIUS BENBATL (UK) BLAIR HOUSE (UK) CLIFFS OF MOHER (IRE) DANON LIBERTY EMOTIONLESS (UK) HARLEM HOMESMAN HUMIDOR KINGS WILL DREAM MR GARCIA NIGHT'S WATCH PLEIN CIEL THE TAJ MAHAL TRAP FOR FOOLS D'ARGENTO - 57.5kg SIEGE OF QUEBEC WINX - 57kg ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) - 56kg SAVVY COUP (NZ) - 55.5kg UNFORGOTTEN THE AUTUMN SUN - 49.5kg THINKIN' BIG EL DORADO DREAMING - 47.5kg |
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Mr Grieves
Champion Joined: 28 Jan 2014 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 935 |
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How many starters are we looking at here? I'm thinking maybe 6, but could be 5 Definites: AVILIUSBENBATL (UK) HUMIDOR SAVVY COUP (NZ) WINX Possibles: BLAIR HOUSE (UK) (don't think Appleby has made up his mind yet) D'ARGENTO (Cantala?)UNFORGOTTEN (Myer mentioned) ROSTROPOVICH (no idea) |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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A placing in the Caulfield Guineas for some bizarre reason always gets you a start and somebody usually takes up the offer no matter how hopeless.
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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i would love to see alivius do a MINE THAT BIRD, kentucky derby style.
sit back, 15 lengths tailed off. run to the tail of the field at the 800 corner, hug the rails the whole way, find gaps, have a lap full of horse. moonee valley circuit is so suited to a mine that bird style run. someone needs to try something a little strange.
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TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16917 |
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Just went and caught a replay of that. Amazing!!
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pnclick
Champion Joined: 13 Mar 2009 Status: Offline Points: 1024 |
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amazing win by MIND THE BIRD, loved the arrogant salute at the furlong pole.
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
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You have to remember they tried with Miss Finland who was much more mature than this boy at this stage also. Mind you the ride was horrid that day if I remember right!
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31448 |
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Brave new world where 5 length Caulfield Guineas winners are immature.
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16245 |
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Miss Finland wasn’t good enough anyway. That was shown by the fact that she was never able to win open age group 1 in many attempts.
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