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Tom Waterhouse. Is he serious???

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rusty nails View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Tom Waterhouse. Is he serious???
    Posted: 15 Apr 2021 at 3:56pm
Oh no Al, remember old mate was clever enough to take overs.....

With no idea of form, or any cogent explanation of how he determined overs, and what obstacles there were in his MO....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Apr 2021 at 1:22pm
Bob wrote: If a punter has a 20 % LOT, another 15% LOT, and another 5% LOT it is fair to assume they have varying degrees of punting ability. From long term statistics you can be reassured that punters , with each increment in their LOT,  are backing less short priced runners but more longer priced runners.

sorry Bob, but that comment is a load of tripe!! THE LOSS ON TURNOVER FOR A PUNTER HAS ZERO TO DO DO WITH THE PRICE OF THE HORSES THEY ARE BACKING !!! of course it is to do with strike rate AND price.
 
take these 3 examples!!.

punter 1 is BACKING ONLY THE FAVES WITH A COUPLE OF RULES WITH about 1000 BETS

SP
RANK                                                                SR
1                1043 328     104300  87110 -17190  31  -16.5

So here the punter has lost 16.5% from backing faves.
===========================================



punter 2 is backing 3RD FAVES UP WITH A COUPLE OF RULES

SP Rank         Bets Win    WOut   WRet   WPrf   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------
3                 185  25      18500  18650    150  13    0.8
4                 307  28      30700  23000  -7700   9  -25.1
5                 214  23      21400  21650    250  10    1.2
6                 150  12      15000  12600  -2400   8  -16.0
7                    77   8       7700   9100   1400  10   18.2
8                    55   3       5500   4200  -1300   5  -23.6
9                     31   1       3100   1700  -1400   3  -45.2
10                     9   1        900   3100   2200  11  244.4
11                   4   0            400      0   -400     0 -100.0
13                   5   0            500      0   -500     0 -100.0
Totals       1037 101     103700  94000  -9700  10   -9.4

SO THIS PUNTER WAS NOT BACKING THE FIRST 2 IN THE MARKET BUT HE ONLY LOST 9.4%

=========================================================
PUNTER 3 is only backing horses not  in the first 4 in the market with a couple of rules

SP Rank      Bets Win     WOut   WRet     WPrf    W%   WPOT
-------------------------------------------------------------
5                 376  41      37600  42100   4500    10     12.0
6                 298  24      29800  31400   1600      8     5.4
7                 171  12      17100  14900  -2200      7   -12.9
8                 125   5      12500   7200    -5300     4    -42.4
9                  69   3         6900   6900         0       4    -2.6
10                 27   1       2700    3100        400     3   14.8
11                 11   0       1100        0      -1100      0 -100.0
12                  1   0        100          0       -100      0  -100.0
13                  5   0        500          0      -500      0   -100.0
14                  1   0        100          0      -100      0   -100.0
 Totals        1084  86     108400  105600  -2800   8     -2.6

so it can be said that this punter was backing horses that could be called outsiders but he only lost 2.6%.

loss on turnover is determined by 2 things.... the strikerate AND the prices obtained. Just because you are losing More DOES NOT mean you are backing longer priced horses!!!!
if you cannot see the LOGIC in what is above, I have no further comment on it.

Allan





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Baghdad Bob View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Apr 2021 at 11:21am
Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

Big Al, when a punter bets on the tote he is in reality betting against other punters. If a pool is $100,000 and the rake , for simple illustration, is 20 % , the net pool of $80,000 is split amongst winning punters. Over a period of time more of that $80,000 is won by punters backing the short end of the market than those who back outsiders, as I previously explained 100/1 shots do not win anything like 1 in 100 races, more like 1 in 200, whereas 2/1 runners win around 30% of their races, by that very nature  punters backing longer priced runners are losing at a higher rate of deduction than those who back the shorter priced runners.
I will explain that another way. A horse at 25/1 on the tote has around 4% of the pool invested on it, and a horse at  50/1 has around 2% of the pool invested on it, but those punters who back those horses, in long run, will not receive 4% or 2% of the dividends, but more than likely 3% and 1% respectively , meaning of course,  they will lose more than the statutory deduction rate on their overall betting.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Apr 2021 at 11:14am
In my prior post I made mention that not all punters pay the same rate of tax ( the deduction rate ) as each other. A simple way to explain this that not all punters would have the same loss on turnover ( LOT ) just as not all punters have the same profit on turnover  (POT).

If a punter has a 20 % LOT, another 15% LOT, and another 5% LOT it is fair to assume they have varying degrees of punting ability. From long term statistics you can be reassured that punters , with each increment in their LOT,  are backing less short priced runners but more longer priced runners and as a result are paying a higher rate of tax on their punting.

If a punter is actually achieving a POT, who do you suppose is subsidising that  ? Losing punters and those with the higher LOT, the most.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2021 at 8:07pm
LOL GAY, far from invincible..... I have spent the last 3 months working on the bot.... to WIN A WHOLE 50 CENTS!! on a race. The bot does not have a simulation mode so you have to trial systems with real money, so Min stakes to say the least. 

ALLAN

Hey Allan, any chance you could hit the 'Reply' tab instead of 'Quote'? Threads get harder & harder to read quickly, & surely, you don't want to take ovr Jamals' crown LOL Thanks & hell, that's a lot of mental gymnastics for a whole 50 cents LOL


Edited by Gay3 - 13 Apr 2021 at 9:22pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2021 at 7:09pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

this bot that I am using is ACTUALLY FREE WHILE IT IS STILL IN BETA MODE.
you have to create your own systems in it as the owner said that the ones that come with the program do not make any money long term. (Actually is/was the same for GTX!!)
if you are into bots PM me and I will let you know what the program is...it is NOT from Australia
ALLAN


Rather topical in view of this discussion & of course, a BM58 LOL

7yo(G)

800 400 MARGIN

SP S-TAB NSW UBET SB
BB


-
W 81.00 47.40 54.60 59.10 101.00
P - 9.90 8.30 11.10 21.00

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2021 at 6:33pm
Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

Big Al, when a punter bets on the tote he is in reality betting against other punters. If a pool is $100,000 and the rake , for simple illustration, is 20 % , the net pool of $80,000 is split amongst winning punters. Over a period of time more of that $80,000 is won by punters backing the short end of the market than those who back outsiders, as I previously explained 100/1 shots do not win anything like 1 in 100 races, more like 1 in 200, whereas 2/1 runners win around 30% of their races, by that very nature  punters backing longer priced runners are losing at a higher rate of deduction than those who back the shorter priced runners.

ONE of the reasons 95% of my bets are at the sharp end of the market. 

ALLAN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2021 at 6:31pm
From  memory I think about 15% plus fraction ( paying to lower 5 pence , prior to 1966 ) on win betting, but if you bet the place they took that lower 5 pence three times each race. After decimal currency was first introduced they paid to lower 5 cent  .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2021 at 6:11pm
Bob , what was the " rake " from the pool when you were giving them a " tickle up " ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2021 at 5:07pm
Big Al, when a punter bets on the tote he is in reality betting against other punters. If a pool is $100,000 and the rake , for simple illustration, is 20 % , the net pool of $80,000 is split amongst winning punters. Over a period of time more of that $80,000 is won by punters backing the short end of the market than those who back outsiders, as I previously explained 100/1 shots do not win anything like 1 in 100 races, more like 1 in 200, whereas 2/1 runners win around 30% of their races, by that very nature  punters backing longer priced runners are losing at a higher rate of deduction than those who back the shorter priced runners.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Apr 2021 at 2:01pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

See that sort of comment does you no favours Rusty. There are lots of successful punters out there that don't even look at form at all. Some purely driven by the mathematics - or following the money. Just because you think you know what is required to be a good punter you think everyone has to do same. I'm sure i & others could look at your analyses & pick it to pieces - what you take into account - what you don't - what weighing you put on it - & so on & on. However i wouldn't have the gall to do that - i would accept that's how you see it & let you go. 
I'll refer you back to my last sentence of my last post. You fit the bill perfectly.  

I use a bot to do exactly that!!. It follows the betfair market and bets into it when the horse qualifies under the rules that i set.

so far for April the bot has placed 255 bets for 123 winners and the profit AFTER commission is 20.93% as at 12-45PM Sydney time. It bets worldwide on thoroughbreds trots and the greyhounds.

i am using pennies as it is still in the formation stage!! BUT once it has the runs on the board, I can have a decent go at it.

Even the programme is still in Beta mode!!!!

ALLAN

10 days into this month and the bot is really where i expected it to be OR maybe STILL making a better POT than i was expecting.

949 bets and 439 winners and PLUS 13.49%.



ALLAN

this bot that I am using is ACTUALLY FREE WHILE IT IS STILL IN BETA MODE.
you have to create your own systems in it as the owner said that the ones that come with the program do not make any money long term. (Actually is/was the same for GTX!!)

if you are into bots PM me and I will let you know what the program is...it is NOT from Australia

ALLAN






 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Apr 2021 at 1:06pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

See that sort of comment does you no favours Rusty. There are lots of successful punters out there that don't even look at form at all. Some purely driven by the mathematics - or following the money. Just because you think you know what is required to be a good punter you think everyone has to do same. I'm sure i & others could look at your analyses & pick it to pieces - what you take into account - what you don't - what weighing you put on it - & so on & on. However i wouldn't have the gall to do that - i would accept that's how you see it & let you go. 
I'll refer you back to my last sentence of my last post. You fit the bill perfectly.  

I use a bot to do exactly that!!. It follows the betfair market and bets into it when the horse qualifies under the rules that i set.

so far for April the bot has placed 255 bets for 123 winners and the profit AFTER commission is 20.93% as at 12-45PM Sydney time. It bets worldwide on thoroughbreds trots and the greyhounds.

i am using pennies as it is still in the formation stage!! BUT once it has the runs on the board, I can have a decent go at it.

Even the programme is still in Beta mode!!!!

ALLAN

10 days into this month and the bot is really where i expected it to be OR maybe STILL making a better POT than i was expecting.

949 bets and 439 winners and PLUS 13.49%.



ALLAN






 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Apr 2021 at 12:47pm
Originally posted by EnableMe EnableMe wrote:

Rusty you don't even qualify as a third grader. When it comes to this discussion, and too many others, you have nothing to offer other than baseless abuse. You really are the single cell amoeba of intellectual discussion on this forum and a large reason why this place is mostly an echo chamber. Why don't you just leave? The site will improve 1000% without your always noxious input. 

Rusty are you really just here to kill this site off once and for all? If not you're simply pointless.


Still no mirrors in the ThreeBears house it seems. LOLLOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Apr 2021 at 12:29pm
Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

Now that you have got me onto the olden days, I can recall some of the price assessors who I paid for their prepost odds to aid my second leg staking for doubles. 
NSW. Jack Freeman a Newcastle based bookie for Gosford , Wyong and Newcastle races
Victoria. Anthony Doughty ( still bookmaking on rails in Melbourne ) Jim " The Silverfish " Jenkins and Greg Basto, Jack Cole ( ran on course doubles book and for exchange of tote second leg odds I got from teletext, he told me what horses he had laid in the second leg ).
Queensland, Some bloke in Brisbane cannot recall his name, probably same bloke as Big Al.

Re: Teletext ( Austext )The information available on Austext pages included the latest in news, weather, racing, general interests and a television guide. The Seven Network started providing test teletext services commencing in 1977,

 The racing pages included a national TAB racing index which ceased operation on Tuesday 4 August 2009.


I went back and checked Peter Bredhaur.

ALLAN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EnableMe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Apr 2021 at 12:55pm
Rusty you don't even qualify as a third grader. When it comes to this discussion, and too many others, you have nothing to offer other than baseless abuse. You really are the single cell amoeba of intellectual discussion on this forum and a large reason why this place is mostly an echo chamber. Why don't you just leave? The site will improve 1000% without your always noxious input. 

Rusty are you really just here to kill this site off once and for all? If not you're simply pointless.

Ease off on the personal abuse.


Edited by Gay3 - 11 Apr 2021 at 2:41pm
longevity does not equate to credibility
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Apr 2021 at 12:22am
Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

The tote overall takeout might be 18%, but that 18% is not spread equally over all horses.Punters lose more than 18% on outsiders and less on the short end of the market, put that another way, if you backed outsiders day in day out on the tote your effective rate of loss might be 30% but if you did the same day in day out on favourites you might only lose 5 % on your turnover. Regardless the tote will still make their 18 % on turnover. Hope that makes sense, but bookies are well aware of that they are in a similar situation.
If those syndicates confine their betting to where the margin for loss is the least and get those rebates they will still come out on top.

oh ok, so what % does the tabs take for the 2 faves and what % do they take for the 2 outsiders in the race?ConfusedConfused

ALLAN
Do you understand probability?  How can I simply put this to you ? I will have a go. Some years ago I did see an analysis of the winning ratio of wins compared to SP, but I no longer have it, so my figures below are approximations, but they will do.

 If a bookie has a 20% margin in his book you might assume he has that margin over all starters , but he does not, his margin increases the longer a horse‘s odds increase. Here some examples if I use the following random odds and increase them by 20% ....
50/1 =60/1, 100/1= 120/1, 25/1= 30/1, 10/1=12/1, 7/1= 8.2/1, 4/1=5/1, 2/1= 2.4/1, 1/1=1.2
Odds on = $1.60 = $1.72, $1.30= $1.36

 Most punters coming from a mathematical or statistical background understand that 100/1 shots do not win 1 in every 120 starts but more likely win 1 in every 200 starts,the same applies to 25/1 shots they do not win 1 in every 30 starts they more than likely win 1 in 35 starts.As the odds of horses reduce they get closer to their real odds , such as “odds on” shots .As an example on that $1.30 I would be very happy to take that $1.36 each time as they probably win 1 in 3 times they start.
From those examples it is clear punters who back outsiders will lose more over time than the bookie’s 20% advantage, whereas those who back short price runners , although they will lose, it will be less over time.
Tote betting is no different , long shots are over played by punters, 100/1 tote runners should be 200/1, 25/1 tote runners should be 35/1. Those $1.30 tote runners whilst marginally under the odds, like all starters at the short end of the market,do not deter syndicates from concentrating their betting on them because after getting their “kick back” rebates they can win. Why do think Zeljko is a multi millionaire , although the TAB is still making money from his betting ? He wins, like all those benefiting from rebates,  at the expense of other punters over betting outsiders.

Hello Bob, I actually missed this one.

the point WAS, the tab do not take MORE from the faves Than the outsiders.... THEY TAKE 18-20% FROM THE RACE!!. So if the pool was $100,000 they take their cut, they take their 18-20% from the faves and they still only get their cut from the 50/1 shots.
i do know what you are saying though... because more money is being invested on the faves they are "getting more DOLLARS!! from the faves than the outsiders.

on the other side of the coin here are some recent numbers for you.


SP
0.1               107  89      10700   9790   -910  83   -8.5
0.2               265 206      26500  24720  -1780  77   -6.7
0.3               474 344      47400  44720  -2680  72   -5.7
0.4               732 484      73200  67760  -5440  66   -7.4
0.5              17131001     171300 150150 -21150  58  -12.3
0.6               696 389      69600  62240  -7360  55  -10.6
0.7              1638 882     163800 149940 -13860  53   -8.5
0.8               902 448      90200  80640  -9560  49  -10.6
0.9              29961392     299600 264480 -35120  46  -11.7
1.0              1346 617     134600 123400 -11200  45   -8.3
1.1              26841154     268400 242340 -26060  42   -9.7
1.2              40301612     403000 354640 -48360  40  -12.0
1.3              25991006     259900 231380 -28520  38  -11.0
1.5              32141181     321400 295250 -26150  36   -8.1
1.6              30941066     309400 277160 -32240  34  -10.4
1.7              63392023     633900 546210 -87690  31  -13.8
1.8              2631 819     263100 229320 -33780  31  -12.8
2.0              61451819     614500 545700 -68800  29  -11.2
2.2              66671822     666700 583040 -83660  27  -12.5
2.5             113532855    1135300 999250-136050  25  -12.0
2.7              77421805     774200 667850-106350  23  -13.7
3.0              88381891     883800 756400-127400  21  -14.4
3.2              68571422     685700 597240 -88460  20  -12.9
3.5             149692855    14969001284750-212150  19  -14.2
3.7              67051246     670500 585620 -84880  18  -12.7
4.0             134062182    13406001091000-249600  16  -18.6
4.5             147582231    14758001227050-248750  15  -16.9
5.0             136801902    13680001141200-226800  13  -16.6
5.5             123221531    1232200 995150-237050  12  -19.2
6.0             123681475    12368001032500-204300  11  -16.5
6.5             114541270    1145400 952500-192900  11  -16.8
7.0             118961217    1189600 973600-216000  10  -18.2
7.5             108441057    1084400 898450-185950   9  -17.1
8.0             214101836    21410001652400-488600   8  -22.8
9.0             158501253    15850001253000-332000   7  -20.9
10.0            162281233    16228001356300-266500   7  -16.4
11.0            14049 874    14049001048800-356100   6  -25.3
12.0            245801472    24580001913600-544400   5  -22.1
14.0            11967 611    1196700 916500-280200   5  -23.4
15.0            10159 476    1015900 761600-254300   4  -25.0
16.0            19740 892    19740001516400-457600   4  -23.2
20.0            415641519    41564003189900-966500   3  -23.3
25.0            22275 592    22275001539200-688300   2  -30.9
30.0            30962 653    30962002024300-1071900   2  -34.6
40.0            20185 329    20185001348900-669600   1  -33.2
50.0            14117 183    1411700 933300-478400   1  -33.9
60.0            12581 109    1258100 664900-593200   0  -47.2
66.0             7328  46     732800 308200-424600   0  -57.9
80.0             8973  55     897300 445500-451800   0  -50.4
100.0           26904 113    26904001141300-1549100   0  -57.6
150.0           11945  24    1194500 362400-832100   0  -69.7
200.0            3053   1     305300  20100-285200   0  -93.4
300.0             174   1      17400  30100  12700   0   73.0




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Baghdad Bob View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 1:26pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

Rusty, unlike yourself, I am retired living off my winnings punting 'overs' generated the day your mother dropped you off at 3rd grade in primary school. BTW decimal currency was introduced in 1966 and I was winning more in those days , in real terms, more than a lawyer did at that time. As far as I am aware in 1966, 3 + 5 =8 as it does in 2021, or it will in 2066.
Sure you did, by being a tote blocker at country meets 20 years after it was impractical.
Or by paying householders to use their home phones 20 years after mobiles were commonplace.
You say you started taking overs in trifectas, with no idea of what value was, or form was.


You talk in generalities, as someone with 3rd hand knowledge, not someone with first hand experience.

I could make another dozen observations .
But I’ve made my point.
Rubbish, Mobile phone were introduced in 1983, I paid households long before then. I had no need to study form to bet on trifectas when I had bookies odds and tote odds , all on hand, on all runners to calculate my staking. Gee you must have come down in the last sun shower thinking I did not know to calculate value through trifecta betting or for that matter any betting, 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 12:31pm
& give you 2 start ??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 12:31pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

Rusty, unlike yourself, I am retired living off my winnings punting 'overs' generated the day your mother dropped you off at 3rd grade in primary school. BTW decimal currency was introduced in 1966 and I was winning more in those days , in real terms, more than a lawyer did at that time. As far as I am aware in 1966, 3 + 5 =8 as it does in 2021, or it will in 2066.
Sure you did, by being a tote blocker at country meets 20 years after it was impractical.
Or by paying householders to use their home phones 20 years after mobiles were commonplace.
You say you started taking overs in trifectas, with no idea of what value was, or form was.


You talk in generalities, as someone with 3rd hand knowledge, not someone with first hand experience.

I could make another dozen observations .
But I’ve made my point.
Off you go - we are all ears. I’ll count backwards from 10
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 12:29pm
I’m not the one taking cheap shots at the likes of Bob - you are Rusty. Without ANY evidence as well I might add. Can only be a jealous streak. You had about 20 pages of Bobs stories that you could have criticised - & you failed miserably every time. So I know who is making g a fool of himself - & it isn’t me !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 12:17pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Maybe you should get your “mates” in the  offices involved. They may be actually add something. Tell them they can leave the “muted TVs” on 
Schoolgirl insults?
Time for me to tune out again.
Just pay attention, you might make a fool of yourself, less often.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 12:12pm
Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

Rusty, unlike yourself, I am retired living off my winnings punting 'overs' generated the day your mother dropped you off at 3rd grade in primary school. BTW decimal currency was introduced in 1966 and I was winning more in those days , in real terms, more than a lawyer did at that time. As far as I am aware in 1966, 3 + 5 =8 as it does in 2021, or it will in 2066.
Sure you did, by being a tote blocker at country meets 20 years after it was impractical.
Or by paying householders to use their home phones 20 years after mobiles were commonplace.
You say you started taking overs in trifectas, with no idea of what value was, or form was.


You talk in generalities, as someone with 3rd hand knowledge, not someone with first hand experience.

I could make another dozen observations .
But I’ve made my point.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 12:09pm
Maybe you should get your “mates” in the  offices involved. They may be actually add something. Tell them they can leave the “muted TVs” on 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 12:02pm
Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

why is that????

Big Al, as I previously have said "tote overs " no longer exist and people like Zeljko, who gets rebates from the TAB, can bet whatever amount on the tote he needs to cruel any "over" and make it into an "under" and over time put other punters, like myself out of the game. 

The other day, you gave an illustration of a horse@ $3.50 in the betting ring might be paying $4.00 just before the jump and finish up paying $3.20. That is a typical Zeljko play. Zeljko will receive that $3.20 "unders" dividend, like everyone else, but when gets his rebate he might receive an equivalent of $3.70.

That modus operandi by Zeljko is not only on win betting, but is replicated on all types of exotics in race after race day after day,
For 1,1’s benefit...

Keep up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 11:59am
Rusty, unlike yourself, I am retired living off my winnings punting 'overs' generated the day your mother dropped you off at 3rd grade in primary school. BTW decimal currency was introduced in 1966 and I was winning more in those days , in real terms, more than a lawyer did at that time. As far as I am aware in 1966, 3 + 5 =8 as it does in 2021, or it will in 2066.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 11:53am
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Would have been easier for you to say, you don’t understand either....

For anyone to infer rebates are similar to getting a boost, misses the point entirely.
What a bizarre reply. Your the one who mentioned the term “odds boost” - no one else. You are starting to develop a pattern of trying to add value to a conversation that are are totally incapable of doing
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 11:29am
It’s like watching a 3rd grader trying to convince us, they understand quantum physics.

Tell us again when you “retired”, most of your specific examples of what you did, were redundant not long after decimal currency was introduced LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 11:23am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Bob is spot on. Early days when there was only a tote offer TAB used to roll out the red carpet for the Zelko's of this world. Give them there own betting terminals - even the whole top floor at the Ultimo H/O at one stage to do their stuff. 
1+1, you are spot on.In those very early days I personally was rolled out the red carpet throughout Victoria. I had arranged for commission rooms as I was been abused by other punters for blocking off the high value tote windows. I had my own tote operator, sandwiches and soft drinks were supplied for lunch because the tote did not want me to have a luncheon break, BUT unlike those Zeljko’ s of this world, I never thought about or ever got a rebate, although I did get an annual pass to get in all racetracks without having to pay.Wink
Personally, as one  who was in the forefront of tote betting in those early days, I find the comments of Rusty rather naive at best.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 10:56am
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

The tote overall takeout might be 18%, but that 18% is not spread equally over all horses.Punters lose more than 18% on outsiders and less on the short end of the market,To put that another way, if you backed outsiders day in day out on the tote your effective rate of loss might be 30% but if you did the same day in day out on favourites you might only lose 5 % on your turnover. Regardless the tote will still make their 18 % on turnover. Hope that makes sense, but bookies are well aware of that they are in a similar situation.
If those syndicates confine their betting to where the margin for loss is the least and get those rebates they will still come out on top.

oh ok, so what % does the tabs take for the 2 faves and what % do they take for the 2 outsiders in the race?ConfusedConfused

ALLAN
Do you understand probability?  How can I simply put this to you ? I will have a go. Some years ago I did see an analysis of the winning ratio of wins compared to SP, but I no longer have it, so my figures below are approximations, but they will do.

 If a bookie has a 20% margin in his book you might assume he has that margin over all starters , but he does not, his margin increases the longer a horse‘s odds increase. Here some examples if I use the following random odds and increase them by 20% ....
50/1 =60/1, 100/1= 120/1, 25/1= 30/1, 10/1=12/1, 7/1= 8.2/1, 4/1=5/1, 2/1= 2.4/1, 1/1=1.2
Odds on = $1.60 = $1.72, $1.30= $1.36

 Most punters coming from a mathematical or statistical background understand that 100/1 shots do not win 1 in every 120 starts but more likely win 1 in every 200 starts,the same applies to 25/1 shots they do not win 1 in every 30 starts they more than likely win 1 in 35 starts.As the odds of horses reduce they get closer to their real odds , such as “odds on” shots .As an example on that $1.30 I would be very happy to take that $1.36 each time as they probably win 1 in 3 times they start.
From those examples it is clear punters who back outsiders will lose more over time than the bookie’s 20% advantage, whereas those who back short price runners , although they will lose, it will be less over time.
Tote betting is no different , long shots are over played by punters, 100/1 tote runners should be 200/1, 25/1 tote runners should be 35/1. Those $1.30 tote runners whilst marginally under the odds, like all starters at the short end of the market,do not deter syndicates from concentrating their betting on them because after getting their “kick back” rebates they can win. Why do think Zeljko is a multi millionaire , although the TAB is still making money from his betting ? He wins, like all those benefiting from rebates,  at the expense of other punters over betting outsiders.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Apr 2021 at 10:25am
Would have been easier for you to say, you don’t understand either....

For anyone to infer rebates are similar to getting a boost, misses the point entirely.
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