Go to Villagebet.com.au for free horse racing tips - Click here now |
|
Tom Waterhouse. Is he serious??? |
Post Reply | Page 123 15> |
Author | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Online Points: 11302 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
Posted: 15 Apr 2021 at 3:56pm |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Oh no Al, remember old mate was clever enough to take overs.....
With no idea of form, or any cogent explanation of how he determined overs, and what obstacles there were in his MO....
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bob wrote: If a punter has a 20 % LOT, another 15% LOT, and another 5% LOT it is fair to assume they have varying degrees of punting ability. From long term statistics you can be reassured that punters , with each increment in their LOT, are backing less short priced runners but more longer priced runners.
sorry Bob, but that comment is a load of tripe!! THE LOSS ON TURNOVER FOR A PUNTER HAS ZERO TO DO DO WITH THE PRICE OF THE HORSES THEY ARE BACKING !!! of course it is to do with strike rate AND price. take these 3 examples!!. punter 1 is BACKING ONLY THE FAVES WITH A COUPLE OF RULES WITH about 1000 BETS SP RANK SR 1 1043 328 104300 87110 -17190 31 -16.5 So here the punter has lost 16.5% from backing faves. =========================================== punter 2 is backing 3RD FAVES UP WITH A COUPLE OF RULES SP Rank Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf WPOT ------------------------------------------------------------- 3 185 25 18500 18650 150 13 0.8 4 307 28 30700 23000 -7700 9 -25.1 5 214 23 21400 21650 250 10 1.2 6 150 12 15000 12600 -2400 8 -16.0 7 77 8 7700 9100 1400 10 18.2 8 55 3 5500 4200 -1300 5 -23.6 9 31 1 3100 1700 -1400 3 -45.2 10 9 1 900 3100 2200 11 244.4 11 4 0 400 0 -400 0 -100.0 13 5 0 500 0 -500 0 -100.0 Totals 1037 101 103700 94000 -9700 10 -9.4 SO THIS PUNTER WAS NOT BACKING THE FIRST 2 IN THE MARKET BUT HE ONLY LOST 9.4% ========================================================= PUNTER 3 is only backing horses not in the first 4 in the market with a couple of rules SP Rank Bets Win WOut WRet WPrf W% WPOT ------------------------------------------------------------- 5 376 41 37600 42100 4500 10 12.0 6 298 24 29800 31400 1600 8 5.4 7 171 12 17100 14900 -2200 7 -12.9 8 125 5 12500 7200 -5300 4 -42.4 9 69 3 6900 6900 0 4 -2.6 10 27 1 2700 3100 400 3 14.8 11 11 0 1100 0 -1100 0 -100.0 12 1 0 100 0 -100 0 -100.0 13 5 0 500 0 -500 0 -100.0 14 1 0 100 0 -100 0 -100.0 Totals 1084 86 108400 105600 -2800 8 -2.6 so it can be said that this punter was backing horses that could be called outsiders but he only lost 2.6%. loss on turnover is determined by 2 things.... the strikerate AND the prices obtained. Just because you are losing More DOES NOT mean you are backing longer priced horses!!!! if you cannot see the LOGIC in what is above, I have no further comment on it. Allan |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13599 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I will explain that another way. A horse at 25/1 on the tote has around 4% of the pool invested on it, and a horse at 50/1 has around 2% of the pool invested on it, but those punters who back those horses, in long run, will not receive 4% or 2% of the dividends, but more than likely 3% and 1% respectively , meaning of course, they will lose more than the statutory deduction rate on their overall betting.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13599 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In my prior post I made mention that not all punters pay the same rate of tax ( the deduction rate ) as each other. A simple way to explain this that not all punters would have the same loss on turnover ( LOT ) just as not all punters have the same profit on turnover (POT).
If a punter has a 20 % LOT, another 15% LOT, and another 5% LOT it is fair to assume they have varying degrees of punting ability. From long term statistics you can be reassured that punters , with each increment in their LOT, are backing less short priced runners but more longer priced runners and as a result are paying a higher rate of tax on their punting. If a punter is actually achieving a POT, who do you suppose is subsidising that ? Losing punters and those with the higher LOT, the most. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LOL GAY, far from invincible..... I have spent the last 3 months working on the bot.... to WIN A WHOLE 50 CENTS!! on a race. The bot does not have a simulation mode so you have to trial systems with real money, so Min stakes to say the least.
ALLAN
Hey Allan, any chance you could hit the 'Reply' tab instead of 'Quote'? Threads get harder & harder to read quickly, & surely, you don't want to take ovr Jamals' crown Thanks & hell, that's a lot of mental gymnastics for a whole 50 cents Edited by Gay3 - 13 Apr 2021 at 9:22pm |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 51824 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rather topical in view of this discussion & of course, a BM58 7yo(G)
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ONE of the reasons 95% of my bets are at the sharp end of the market. ALLAN
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13599 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
From memory I think about 15% plus fraction ( paying to lower 5 pence , prior to 1966 ) on win betting, but if you bet the place they took that lower 5 pence three times each race. After decimal currency was first introduced they paid to lower 5 cent .
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21703 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bob , what was the " rake " from the pool when you were giving them a " tickle up " ?
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13599 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Big Al, when a punter bets on the tote he is in reality betting against other punters. If a pool is $100,000 and the rake , for simple illustration, is 20 % , the net pool of $80,000 is split amongst winning punters. Over a period of time more of that $80,000 is won by punters backing the short end of the market than those who back outsiders, as I previously explained 100/1 shots do not win anything like 1 in 100 races, more like 1 in 200, whereas 2/1 runners win around 30% of their races, by that very nature punters backing longer priced runners are losing at a higher rate of deduction than those who back the shorter priced runners.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 days into this month and the bot is really where i expected it to be OR maybe STILL making a better POT than i was expecting. 949 bets and 439 winners and PLUS 13.49%. ALLAN |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16226 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Still no mirrors in the ThreeBears house it seems.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I went back and checked Peter Bredhaur. ALLAN
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EnableMe
Champion Joined: 11 Aug 2020 Location: Creswick Status: Offline Points: 581 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rusty you don't even qualify as a third grader. When it comes to this discussion, and too many others, you have nothing to offer other than baseless abuse. You really are the single cell amoeba of intellectual discussion on this forum and a large reason why this place is mostly an echo chamber. Why don't you just leave? The site will improve 1000% without your always noxious input.
Rusty are you really just here to kill this site off once and for all? If not you're simply pointless. Ease off on the personal abuse.
Edited by Gay3 - 11 Apr 2021 at 2:41pm |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
longevity does not equate to credibility
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
bigal
Champion Joined: 29 Jan 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9802 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hello Bob, I actually missed this one. the point WAS, the tab do not take MORE from the faves Than the outsiders.... THEY TAKE 18-20% FROM THE RACE!!. So if the pool was $100,000 they take their cut, they take their 18-20% from the faves and they still only get their cut from the 50/1 shots. i do know what you are saying though... because more money is being invested on the faves they are "getting more DOLLARS!! from the faves than the outsiders. on the other side of the coin here are some recent numbers for you. SP 0.1 107 89 10700 9790 -910 83 -8.5 0.2 265 206 26500 24720 -1780 77 -6.7 0.3 474 344 47400 44720 -2680 72 -5.7 0.4 732 484 73200 67760 -5440 66 -7.4 0.5 17131001 171300 150150 -21150 58 -12.3 0.6 696 389 69600 62240 -7360 55 -10.6 0.7 1638 882 163800 149940 -13860 53 -8.5 0.8 902 448 90200 80640 -9560 49 -10.6 0.9 29961392 299600 264480 -35120 46 -11.7 1.0 1346 617 134600 123400 -11200 45 -8.3 1.1 26841154 268400 242340 -26060 42 -9.7 1.2 40301612 403000 354640 -48360 40 -12.0 1.3 25991006 259900 231380 -28520 38 -11.0 1.5 32141181 321400 295250 -26150 36 -8.1 1.6 30941066 309400 277160 -32240 34 -10.4 1.7 63392023 633900 546210 -87690 31 -13.8 1.8 2631 819 263100 229320 -33780 31 -12.8 2.0 61451819 614500 545700 -68800 29 -11.2 2.2 66671822 666700 583040 -83660 27 -12.5 2.5 113532855 1135300 999250-136050 25 -12.0 2.7 77421805 774200 667850-106350 23 -13.7 3.0 88381891 883800 756400-127400 21 -14.4 3.2 68571422 685700 597240 -88460 20 -12.9 3.5 149692855 14969001284750-212150 19 -14.2 3.7 67051246 670500 585620 -84880 18 -12.7 4.0 134062182 13406001091000-249600 16 -18.6 4.5 147582231 14758001227050-248750 15 -16.9 5.0 136801902 13680001141200-226800 13 -16.6 5.5 123221531 1232200 995150-237050 12 -19.2 6.0 123681475 12368001032500-204300 11 -16.5 6.5 114541270 1145400 952500-192900 11 -16.8 7.0 118961217 1189600 973600-216000 10 -18.2 7.5 108441057 1084400 898450-185950 9 -17.1 8.0 214101836 21410001652400-488600 8 -22.8 9.0 158501253 15850001253000-332000 7 -20.9 10.0 162281233 16228001356300-266500 7 -16.4 11.0 14049 874 14049001048800-356100 6 -25.3 12.0 245801472 24580001913600-544400 5 -22.1 14.0 11967 611 1196700 916500-280200 5 -23.4 15.0 10159 476 1015900 761600-254300 4 -25.0 16.0 19740 892 19740001516400-457600 4 -23.2 20.0 415641519 41564003189900-966500 3 -23.3 25.0 22275 592 22275001539200-688300 2 -30.9 30.0 30962 653 30962002024300-1071900 2 -34.6 40.0 20185 329 20185001348900-669600 1 -33.2 50.0 14117 183 1411700 933300-478400 1 -33.9 60.0 12581 109 1258100 664900-593200 0 -47.2 66.0 7328 46 732800 308200-424600 0 -57.9 80.0 8973 55 897300 445500-451800 0 -50.4 100.0 26904 113 26904001141300-1549100 0 -57.6 150.0 11945 24 1194500 362400-832100 0 -69.7 200.0 3053 1 305300 20100-285200 0 -93.4 300.0 174 1 17400 30100 12700 0 73.0 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13599 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rubbish, Mobile phone were introduced in 1983, I paid households long before then. I had no need to study form to bet on trifectas when I had bookies odds and tote odds , all on hand, on all runners to calculate my staking. Gee you must have come down in the last sun shower thinking I did not know to calculate value through trifecta betting or for that matter any betting,
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36895 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
& give you 2 start ??
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Refer ALP Election Promises
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36895 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Refer ALP Election Promises
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36895 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I’m not the one taking cheap shots at the likes of Bob - you are Rusty. Without ANY evidence as well I might add. Can only be a jealous streak. You had about 20 pages of Bobs stories that you could have criticised - & you failed miserably every time. So I know who is making g a fool of himself - & it isn’t me !
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Refer ALP Election Promises
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Online Points: 11302 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Schoolgirl insults? Time for me to tune out again. Just pay attention, you might make a fool of yourself, less often. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Online Points: 11302 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sure you did, by being a tote blocker at country meets 20 years after it was impractical. Or by paying householders to use their home phones 20 years after mobiles were commonplace. You say you started taking overs in trifectas, with no idea of what value was, or form was. You talk in generalities, as someone with 3rd hand knowledge, not someone with first hand experience. I could make another dozen observations . But I’ve made my point.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36895 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maybe you should get your “mates” in the offices involved. They may be actually add something. Tell them they can leave the “muted TVs” on
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Refer ALP Election Promises
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Online Points: 11302 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
For 1,1’s benefit... Keep up
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13599 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rusty, unlike yourself, I am retired living off my winnings punting 'overs' generated the day your mother dropped you off at 3rd grade in primary school. BTW decimal currency was introduced in 1966 and I was winning more in those days , in real terms, more than a lawyer did at that time. As far as I am aware in 1966, 3 + 5 =8 as it does in 2021, or it will in 2066.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36895 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Refer ALP Election Promises
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Online Points: 11302 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
It’s like watching a 3rd grader trying to convince us, they understand quantum physics.
Tell us again when you “retired”, most of your specific examples of what you did, were redundant not long after decimal currency was introduced
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13599 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1+1, you are spot on.In those very early days I personally was rolled out the red carpet throughout Victoria. I had arranged for commission rooms as I was been abused by other punters for blocking off the high value tote windows. I had my own tote operator, sandwiches and soft drinks were supplied for lunch because the tote did not want me to have a luncheon break, BUT unlike those Zeljko’ s of this world, I never thought about or ever got a rebate, although I did get an annual pass to get in all racetracks without having to pay. Personally, as one who was in the forefront of tote betting in those early days, I find the comments of Rusty rather naive at best.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13599 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Do you understand probability? How can I simply put this to you ? I will have a go. Some years ago I did see an analysis of the winning ratio of wins compared to SP, but I no longer have it, so my figures below are approximations, but they will do. If a bookie has a 20% margin in his book you might assume he has that margin over all starters , but he does not, his margin increases the longer a horse‘s odds increase. Here some examples if I use the following random odds and increase them by 20% .... 50/1 =60/1, 100/1= 120/1, 25/1= 30/1, 10/1=12/1, 7/1= 8.2/1, 4/1=5/1, 2/1= 2.4/1, 1/1=1.2 Odds on = $1.60 = $1.72, $1.30= $1.36 Most punters coming from a mathematical or statistical background understand that 100/1 shots do not win 1 in every 120 starts but more likely win 1 in every 200 starts,the same applies to 25/1 shots they do not win 1 in every 30 starts they more than likely win 1 in 35 starts.As the odds of horses reduce they get closer to their real odds , such as “odds on” shots .As an example on that $1.30 I would be very happy to take that $1.36 each time as they probably win 1 in 3 times they start. From those examples it is clear punters who back outsiders will lose more over time than the bookie’s 20% advantage, whereas those who back short price runners , although they will lose, it will be less over time. Tote betting is no different , long shots are over played by punters, 100/1 tote runners should be 200/1, 25/1 tote runners should be 35/1. Those $1.30 tote runners whilst marginally under the odds, like all starters at the short end of the market,do not deter syndicates from concentrating their betting on them because after getting their “kick back” rebates they can win. Why do think Zeljko is a multi millionaire , although the TAB is still making money from his betting ? He wins, like all those benefiting from rebates, at the expense of other punters over betting outsiders.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Online Points: 11302 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Would have been easier for you to say, you don’t understand either....
For anyone to infer rebates are similar to getting a boost, misses the point entirely.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post Reply | Page 123 15> |
Tweet |
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum |