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Saturday Racing Blog April 21 2018 |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 52021 |
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Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 6:58am |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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jimbob04
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 2856 |
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good luck all
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Dizzy
Premium Joined: 17 Sep 2013 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 16863 |
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Good morning Gay3, jimbob04 and all. Good luck to all.
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Nick
Champion Joined: 21 Mar 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3455 |
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Luck all.
Not a Single Cent/Irukanji/EDD all each Trapeze Artist Almost Court ew |
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Long Row
Champion Joined: 05 Jan 2017 Status: Offline Points: 455 |
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Tangled BF, Mr Sneaky BF and Rich Charm 3.2 and some quaddies is my lot for the day.
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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These are my best today:
Randwick
R2 Test The World $5.65/$2.38 - loves this mare, rarely lets me down. Shapes as the winner here again in an albeit open race. Should be on speed and really has a kick when fresh. R4 Tangled $4.8 from Higher Ground $11 & save Holy Snow $4.8 (deductions to come) - I've taken unders Tangled and can't believe the price around. He's the value bet of the day. Not one of mine - in fact I've never backed him before. He's a non-winner but to be fair he's barely raced outside the top grade. He finds his race here today - 2000m is his pet distance and this isn't the A grade for once. Higher Ground has to take a quantum leap forward here but he's progressive and surely Waller's QLD Derby horse. Holy Snow cost me last start and he goes up in distance and this is harder than the Carbine. Was happy to save but current odds are poison. R5 Manicure $6/$2.38 - shapes to peak here and looked like she wanted 1400m last start. Had cover from Problem Solver last start but was still deep and worked home R6 Outrageous $9 from El Dorado Dreaming $10 - couldn't believe this market with Outrageous priced longer than horses like Long Leaf who he clearly outperformed in the Sires. Then the final field market opens and he's still $7 when I priced him fave. Then the money came! Deserved fave and I think he wins. R8 Arbeitsam $4.8/$2.1 - the class animal, will be leading and exceptionally hard to run down. Hard fit and in great form. I can't really see them catching him.
Caulfield R1 French Emotion $2.05 – excellent behind the potential star in Quilista first up, then unlucky last start, thrown in at the weights here, won the race last year so shapes to peak for it again. Main danger according to market is a very good mare however she was poor last start before a spell and has returned with two poor trials for her standard. Actually think the price is ok. R2 Widgee Turf $3.1 – no value in price but how do they turn the tables on him? He was enormous last start. The only thing I say is he has a slight question mark on his strength at the end of a mile. He was lumping 60kg when he fell in at his last attempt at the trip, so a couple kilos less here helps. Will get back but surely too strong late again. R5 Nature Strip $1.9 – prohibitive odds but should win provided he's forward enough. Very exciting sprinter and should fly fresh. Only danger Deprive is another exciting sprinter who I rate highly, but I don’t like him back 100m to 1100m here. I think nature Strip will just be too sharp for him. Not suited at the weights compared to the fave either. R6 Cliff’s Edge $1.85 – not much to say here. Needs only to be somewhere near his best form and he walks in. Doomben R2 Arizona Wildcat – got on at $26/$7.5, had been backed into $11, then came the scratchings this morning with the wet track and my odds are now $19/$5.6 and she is as short as $6 with Sportsbet. 4 starts for 3 3rds on soft - not ideal as all wins on Good but as long as no worse than soft she hopefully still runs a race for us. Other than these I have a few bets on the All Aged but the race looks a lottery. I'm also keen to see what happens with the price for Osborne Bulls. Too short for me at the moment and hoping he eases. Also want to see how the track plays. Good luck and good punting. |
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Sunline...simply supreme
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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I think Snippet's Land will run a good race for us at 20's in the last event at Randwick. Underrated horse. It's been running very well of late. I love that Care To Think form.
Barrier 1 is sticky. I would have preferred to draw out. It also had barrier 1 last start and the fence was off that day at Rosehill. It's run was better than it appeared. Good chance of running top 3. Just needs a bit of luck at the right time. |
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Prince of Penzance
Champion Joined: 17 Jan 2018 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1938 |
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Cliffs Edge
Rich Charm Widgee Turf That is all. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I haven't come up with any Specials yet . I'm in WINX withdrawals .
I note I wrote down lay Northern River R1 last night ??? In my state about midnight I would have layed anything, so I better check on my reasons. My expert know how, on wet surfaces , tells me the inside won't be the place to be at Randwick today.> I know it is a Good3, but the rail is out 6m,----after being out 3m last week so the rails will be the chopped up area again today... I think, 4 > SO FAR SOKOOL R5 R'dwick might be my ticket to stardom today. |
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21836 |
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Time for the first in Syd. 1-8-40 for the 1200, low flying , 1-8-06 track record, Deploy.
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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Good luck today guys.
I'm kicking off with Dissolute in R2 @ $5.50. In winning form as is Tye Angland ( could have a huge day) which is good but up against Test The World, hence the Enhanced odds. I think Dothraki has landed in a race that suits him down to the ground. Short but I'm willing to take those odds $3.40. Outrageous, Osborne Bulls, Manicure and a couple from left field as well. No big outlays for me but if one of my multis wins I'll be very happy. |
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Along the fence too Croca . Best System in town ... back the opposite to what I think. |
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21914 |
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This LOOKS the easiest day I've ever seen at Caulfield. Already first short one home and can't see many faves losing today.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21836 |
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I have toyed with that idea Macca, but naa , you do alright.
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Jay Ford is completely outclassed in town. Please go back to the bush tracks.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Track record. On pace, near rail advantaged so far at Rwick. Top ride by Parr to sit there.
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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And nothing I've taken will be anywhere near the rail or the lead early. Maybe Dothraki but not the others.
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Heading for some carnage/bad luck stories at Rwick if the jocks all come to the same conclusions.
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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I have a bad feeling this post is going to be quoted a few times at the end of the day. |
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Nick
Champion Joined: 21 Mar 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3455 |
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Go Burning Passion!
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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Whypeeo, Mr Sneaky & Violate in Brisbane.
Lipstick Lover, Moghul Empire, Viddora, Harmattan & Split Up in Adelaide. In Melbourne I have specked Aaron Purcell's import in the last Snoano. Like a few at odds at Randwick. Star Reflection, Dyslexic, Bondi, have backed Le Romain & Brave Smash to beat Trapeze Artist, but also a little the place on Satono Rasen and I think Cool Chap is just about the best bet of the day and think Rising Red and The Pinnacle can run well. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Not much doubt about the inside lanes being favoured at Rwick. Unacceptable really.
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Sneck
Champion Joined: 16 Feb 2013 Location: Payout Queue Status: Offline Points: 7555 |
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Dothraki shows his true colors and they're rainbow.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Good job Nick. Beautiful ride to the conditions.
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Why was Flindall surprised at Dothraki stopping? It's been doing that it's whole career. Biggest muncher in the country.
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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Good luck today punters. Small bet Tycoon Tiily to kick off.
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Nick
Champion Joined: 21 Mar 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3455 |
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Go Tangled!
First time he's been my top selection which normally ends in tears :( |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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The Randwick 1200 has been producing sensational times for some time now . Maybe some work done on the Rise? . But what a laugh = R2 winner runs a new record and is credited with running 0.+01 outside standard .
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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It's a sit back and play day for me now.
I'm not betting in Melbourne full stop unless it's spring and Randwick looks like the inside is red hot. I'll just have a few 5 and 10 dollar nibbles Dissolution the first.
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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Well done Nick
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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