Saturday Racing Blog April 21 2018

Randwick

R2 Test The World $5.65/$2.38 - loves this mare, rarely lets me down. Shapes as the winner here again in an albeit open race. Should be on speed and really has a kick when fresh.

R4 Tangled $4.8 from Higher Ground $11 & save Holy Snow $4.8 (deductions to come) - I've taken unders Tangled and can't believe the price around. He's the value bet of the day. Not one of mine - in fact I've never backed him before. He's a non-winner but to be fair he's barely raced outside the top grade. He finds his race here today - 2000m is his pet distance and this isn't the A grade for once. Higher Ground has to take a quantum leap forward here but he's progressive and surely Waller's QLD Derby horse. Holy Snow cost me last start and he goes up in distance and this is harder than the Carbine. Was happy to save but current odds are poison.

R5 Manicure $6/$2.38 - shapes to peak here and looked like she wanted 1400m last start. Had cover from Problem Solver last start but was still deep and worked home stylishly. Should've won but for the on-speed bias. I think she's great odds for an each way bet here.

R6 Outrageous $9 from El Dorado Dreaming $10 - couldn't believe this market with Outrageous priced longer than horses like Long Leaf who he clearly outperformed in the Sires. Then the final field market opens and he's still $7 when I priced him fave. Then the money came! Deserved fave and I think he wins.

R8 Arbeitsam $4.8/$2.1 - the class animal, will be leading and exceptionally hard to run down. Hard fit and in great form. I can't really see them catching him.

Caulfield

R1 French Emotion $2.05 – excellent behind the potential star in Quilista first up, then unlucky last start, thrown in at the weights here, won the race last year so shapes to peak for it again. Main danger according to market is a very good mare however she was poor last start before a spell and has returned with two poor trials for her standard. Actually think the price is ok.

R2 Widgee Turf $3.1 – no value in price but how do they turn the tables on him? He was enormous last start. The only thing I say is he has a slight question mark on his strength at the end of a mile. He was lumping 60kg when he fell in at his last attempt at the trip, so a couple kilos less here helps. Will get back but surely too strong late again.

R5 Nature Strip $1.9 – prohibitive odds but should win provided he's forward enough. Very exciting sprinter and should fly fresh. Only danger Deprive is another exciting sprinter who I rate highly, but I don’t like him back 100m to 1100m here. I think nature Strip will just be too sharp for him. Not suited at the weights compared to the fave either.

R6 Cliff’s Edge $1.85 – not much to say here. Needs only to be somewhere near his best form and he walks in.

Doomben

R2 Arizona Wildcat – got on at $26/$7.5, had been backed into $11, then came the scratchings this morning with the wet track and my odds are now $19/$5.6 and she is as short as $6 with Sportsbet. 4 starts for 3 3rds on soft - not ideal as all wins on Good but as long as no worse than soft she hopefully still runs a race for us.

Other than these I have a few bets on the All Aged but the race looks a lottery.  I'm also keen to see what happens with the price for Osborne Bulls. Too short for me at the moment and hoping he eases. Also want to see how the track plays.

Good luck and good punting.