Go to Villagebet.com.au for free horse racing tips - Click here now |
|
Thursday Racing Blog April 19 2018 |
Post Reply |
Author | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 52012 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 7:04am |
||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Wyong R8 today is an interesting one.
I simply cannot get The Drake as big as $14/$3.9 vs Montrachet $2.7. Forgive him last start when first up, caught deep in a very hot race and he faded in the straight. At his last start at the end of last prep, he beat Montrachet fair and square giving her 3kg. He meets her at level weights here! On the flip side, Montrachet was on debut, so will have improved, and has done with a nice first up win with Youngstar in behind who then came out and won next start. But she's $2.7 and The Drake is $14! Well documented that I'm no fan of backing this stable. But the value is there. We shouldn't be concerned he hasn't come up this prep as he had trialed very nicely leading into the first up run. I think Resin and Safado are two stakes horses in the making, so he was in the deep end first up and caught deep as well. Deserves another chance and we get the value to not have to invest too heavy. You can save on Montrachet and hope Artemis Rose doesn't blouse us!
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Sunline...simply supreme
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
I've been watching Artemis Rose very closely this prep and l've come to the conclusion she's not much chop. I'd be very happy to lay her. I think the Snowden's might have the same opinion because they've elected to put the blinkers on today. Sometimes trainers do this as a bit of a last resort. The horse doesn't look to need the blinkers to my eye. But that's just my opinion.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
You certainly chose a tough one Sunline. The day The Drake gave Montrachet ( slow to begin )the 3k and won , Drake was greatly advantaged by barrier and a slow early sectional. Today he's out in 8.
Montrachet then benefited by the same circumstances for his win. With a shuffle of barriers this time , it does change things and if pace on early, Artemis Rose should get a nice trail from 1 alley and can run time. Siam won over this course and distance, first up last time, to add to a real puzzle. I wish you well , in what might be a "dutch book" for us desperates. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
RED HUNTER
Champion Joined: 21 Jun 2010 Location: PERTH Status: Offline Points: 16334 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Bit hard to fathom re COFFS
I will stick to it being a GOOD 4 Weather FINE.....no irrigation ...3mm rain last 24 hours READING SOFT 5,at the moment.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
You're not wrong, Macca. I must admit I'm leaning heavily on the value angle here. Not without many challenges to win, but for me a sub $10 chance.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Sunline...simply supreme
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
All good debate. I must admit when browsing a few replays last night I was impressed by the win of SIAM Run.1, last time and it's noted they have come back to the same C & D to resume again. Has had 2 Trials and is in the market.
Montrachet is well "unders" at $2.7. out in 7. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Long Row
Champion Joined: 05 Jan 2017 Status: Offline Points: 455 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Found a few winners yesterday so looking to continue on now I've found some form.
Werribee 1- Uzayli, 13 start maiden for eight 2nds and a third - today is the day. Back from spell this prep for two 2nds, but they were close up behind Island Daze and Moana Jewel who have both been very impressive at their next starts. Happy to be on at 2.8. 5- Wired - got the 5.5 on opening which is well and truly gone. Couldn't match it with Royal Symphony, but was thereabouts with Prevailing Winds, Wanted Diva and Je Suis Tycoon in different races... That's better quality than these. Pakenham 3 - Walhalla @ 3.5... showed a bit in 1st prep, some of that form is handy enough for this. 5 - Alsvin - concede the favourite looks hard to beat, however the 8s here is a nice each way place after a strong first up run and some nice form lines from its only other prep. 5- Kapset @ 18's each way. Looks a big price for one that goes well first up, at the distance and at the track. Maher going well since returning too. 8 - Onemoreemotion @ 21's each way. Baster's hanging around to ride it, good enough form for an up and comer to spec at the price. Good luck all |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Red Hare
Champion Joined: 11 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Was just chatting to a mate about the price on offer for Smooth Hustler, Werribee R5. I think he might be a bit of a pack animal, likely to bounce between 58 & 64 grade never winning out of turn.
Someone must be keen. He went $18 into $8 TAB fixed as we were chatting. The brave folk at Palmerbet have him $4.80
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
>> That was fine tipping yesterday. ( will get you into the fillet steak club ).. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Long Row
Champion Joined: 05 Jan 2017 Status: Offline Points: 455 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Thanks. Wasn't much meat on the bones at SP's but there early prices were better. Enough for a porterhouse anyway :D
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
There's been a long odds move at Werribee in race 2. Anacreon for Jamie Edwards. 50's this morning. Now into $15 fixed and $8 on the tote. Someone knows something because it's form is absolutely dreadful. On it's form alone you wouldn't back it in a field of two in a Hanging Rock maiden. But money talks in this game. Blinkers first time. Someone out there thinks it's going to improve immensely today.
The betting late will tell the story. If it drifts back to 50's then it won't do anything and we can safely say it's mug money. But if it stays firm at 15's expect it to run very well. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Uzayli and Once Upon A Dream both paid $1.04 the place on the Victorian tote. That doesn't seem right to me.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Smoke and Mirrors
Champion Joined: 10 Sep 2016 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 1396 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Big plunge on this horse. 30length beaten and 20 lengths at his past couple |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
"Go Hard or Go Home”
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
It's drifting back out now Smoke and Mirrors. There's another one in the race that they've specked too. Mean Mister. They were betting 30's and now it's $11 fixed. This one is holding up at that price.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
You could tell the blinkers really switched on that Edwards horse. Must have worked well in them at home.
They smashed that winner. It was a big go late. They were betting $7.50 about 15 minutes ago. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
I layed the (2) that ran 3 rd . Anacreon was any old price at the finish = paid huge the place . >>> The winner was probably the best credentialed in the race but was resuming... finally started fav. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Wes Hunter's horse was an eye catcher from the back. Up in trip next start in a moderate maiden it will go close.
Pretty keen on Zarpoya in race 4 at Werribee. Had some excuses last start. It's simply better than the opposition. Should be winning. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
That was stealing money. I can't believe they bet $4.20.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Long Row
Champion Joined: 05 Jan 2017 Status: Offline Points: 455 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Easy as you like.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
What's going on at Werribee? I haven't got audio at the moment but surely this is a non race? They were in a full gallop for a good 200-300 metres?!
It appears they're running? |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Flying Batya shouldn't have ran. Have a look at the sweat pouring off it. I'd be filthy if l backed it.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Long Row
Champion Joined: 05 Jan 2017 Status: Offline Points: 455 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
That annoys me greatly. Cost Wired the win, and price was destroyed regardless.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Well done MJB!
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Sunline...simply supreme
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
tillyras
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2012 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 7540 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
A similar thing happened at Port Augusta the other day (friends horse was in it)
The stewards rightfully called it a NO Race |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Why was Wyong called off? I was looking forward to that last race.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||
Storm, lightning, and eventually, light. I happened upon the Sky studio bloke talking about it during the telecast but after 30 seconds of yabber he didn't say which course was involved so I assumed Coffs.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Post Reply | |
Tweet |
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum |