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Thursday Racing Blog April 19 2018

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Gay3 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Thursday Racing Blog April 19 2018
    Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 7:04am
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 8:41am
Wyong R8 today is an interesting one.

I simply cannot get The Drake as big as $14/$3.9 vs Montrachet $2.7. Forgive him last start when first up, caught deep in a very hot race and he faded in the straight. At his last start at the end of last prep, he beat Montrachet fair and square giving her 3kg. He meets her at level weights here!

On the flip side, Montrachet was on debut, so will have improved, and has done with a nice first up win with Youngstar in behind who then came out and won next start. But she's $2.7 and The Drake is $14!

Well documented that I'm no fan of backing this stable. But the value is there. We shouldn't be concerned he hasn't come up this prep as he had trialed very nicely leading into the first up run. I think Resin and Safado are two stakes horses in the making, so he was in the deep end first up and caught deep as well.

Deserves another chance and we get the value to not have to invest too heavy. You can save on Montrachet and hope Artemis Rose doesn't blouse us!
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 9:17am
I've been watching Artemis Rose very closely this prep and l've come to the conclusion she's not much chop. I'd be very happy to lay her. I think the Snowden's might have the same opinion because they've elected to put the blinkers on today. Sometimes trainers do this as a bit of a last resort. The horse doesn't look to need the blinkers to my eye. But that's just my opinion.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 10:17am
You certainly chose a tough one Sunline.    The day The Drake gave Montrachet ( slow to begin )the 3k and won , Drake was greatly advantaged by barrier and a slow early sectional. Today he's out in 8.
Montrachet then benefited by the same circumstances for his win.
With a shuffle of barriers this time , it does change things and if pace on early, Artemis Rose should get a nice trail from 1 alley and can run time.
Siam won over this course and distance, first up last time, to add to a real puzzle.
I wish you well , in what might be a "dutch book" for us desperates.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RED HUNTER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 10:21am
Bit hard to fathom re COFFS

I will stick to it being a GOOD 4

Weather FINE.....no irrigation ...3mm rain last 24 hours

READING SOFT 5,at the moment.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 10:30am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

You certainly chose a tough one Sunline.    The day The Drake gave Montrachet ( slow to begin )the 3k and won , Drake was greatly advantaged by barrier and a slow early sectional. Today he's out in 8.
Montrachet then benefited by the same circumstances for his win.
With a shuffle of barriers this time , it does change things and if pace on early, Artemis Rose should get a nice trail from 1 alley and can run time.
Siam won over this course and distance, first up last time, to add to a real puzzle.
I wish you well , in what might be a "dutch book" for us desperates.

You're not wrong, Macca.  I must admit I'm leaning heavily on the value angle here. Not without many challenges to win, but for me a sub $10 chance.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 10:46am
All good debate.     I must admit when browsing a few replays last night I was impressed by the win of SIAM Run.1, last time and it's noted they have come back to the same C & D to resume again.      Has had 2 Trials and is in the market.
Montrachet is well "unders" at $2.7. out in 7.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Long Row Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 12:34pm
Found a few winners yesterday so looking to continue on now I've found some form.

Werribee
1- Uzayli, 13 start maiden for eight 2nds and a third - today is the day. Back from spell this prep for two 2nds, but they were close up behind Island Daze and Moana Jewel who have both been very impressive at their next starts. Happy to be on at 2.8.

5- Wired - got the 5.5 on opening which is well and truly gone. Couldn't match it with Royal Symphony, but was thereabouts with Prevailing Winds, Wanted Diva and Je Suis Tycoon in different races... That's better quality than these.

Pakenham
3 - Walhalla @ 3.5... showed a bit in 1st prep, some of that form is handy enough for this.

5 - Alsvin - concede the favourite looks hard to beat, however the 8s here is a nice each way place after a strong first up run and some nice form lines from its only other prep.

5- Kapset @ 18's each way. Looks a big price for one that goes well first up, at the distance and at the track. Maher going well since returning too.

8 - Onemoreemotion @ 21's each way. Baster's hanging around to ride it, good enough form for an up and comer to spec at the price.

Good luck all




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Red Hare Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 12:49pm
Was just chatting to a mate about the price on offer for Smooth Hustler, Werribee R5. I think he might be a bit of a pack animal, likely to bounce between 58 & 64 grade never winning out of turn.

Someone must be keen. He went $18 into $8 TAB fixed as we were chatting. The brave folk at Palmerbet have him $4.80 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 12:51pm
Originally posted by Long Row Long Row wrote:

Found a few winners yesterday so looking to continue on now I've found some form.

Werribee
1- Uzayli, 13 start maiden for eight 2nds and a third - today is the day. Back from spell this prep for two 2nds, but they were close up behind Island Daze and Moana Jewel who have both been very impressive at their next starts. Happy to be on at 2.8.

5- Wired - got the 5.5 on opening which is well and truly gone. Couldn't match it with Royal Symphony, but was thereabouts with Prevailing Winds, Wanted Diva and Je Suis Tycoon in different races... That's better quality than these.

Pakenham
3 - Walhalla @ 3.5... showed a bit in 1st prep, some of that form is handy enough for this.

5 - Alsvin - concede the favourite looks hard to beat, however the 8s here is a nice each way place after a strong first up run and some nice form lines from its only other prep.

5- Kapset @ 18's each way. Looks a big price for one that goes well first up, at the distance and at the track. Maher going well since returning too.

8 - Onemoreemotion @ 21's each way. Baster's hanging around to ride it, good enough form for an up and comer to spec at the pric
Good luck all
[DIV

              
>>    That was fine tipping yesterday.   ( will get you into the fillet steak club )..       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Long Row Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 1:04pm
Thanks. Wasn't much meat on the bones at SP's but there early prices were better. Enough for a porterhouse anyway :D
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 1:06pm
There's been a long odds move at Werribee in race 2. Anacreon for Jamie Edwards. 50's this morning. Now into $15 fixed and $8 on the tote. Someone knows something because it's form is absolutely dreadful. On it's form alone you wouldn't back it in a field of two in a Hanging Rock maiden. But money talks in this game. Blinkers first time. Someone out there thinks it's going to improve immensely today.

The betting late will tell the story. If it drifts back to 50's then it won't do anything and we can safely say it's mug money. But if it stays firm at 15's expect it to run very well.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 1:36pm
Uzayli and Once Upon A Dream both paid $1.04 the place on the Victorian tote. That doesn't seem right to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Smoke and Mirrors Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 1:49pm
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

There's been a long odds move at Werribee in race 2. Anacreon for Jamie Edwards. 50's this morning. Now into $15 fixed and $8 on the tote. Someone knows something because it's form is absolutely dreadful. On it's form alone you wouldn't back it in a field of two in a Hanging Rock maiden. But money talks in this game. Blinkers first time. Someone out there thinks it's going to improve immensely today.

The betting late will tell the story. If it drifts back to 50's then it won't do anything and we can safely say it's mug money. But if it stays firm at 15's expect it to run very well.



Big plunge on this horse. 30length beaten and 20 lengths at his past couple
"Go Hard or Go Home”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 1:58pm
It's drifting back out now Smoke and Mirrors. There's another one in the race that they've specked too. Mean Mister. They were betting 30's and now it's $11 fixed. This one is holding up at that price.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 2:04pm
You could tell the blinkers really switched on that Edwards horse. Must have worked well in them at home.

They smashed that winner. It was a big go late. They were betting $7.50 about 15 minutes ago.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 2:13pm
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

You could tell the blinkers really switched on that Edwards horse. Must have worked well in them at home.

They smashed that winner. It was a big go late. They were betting $7.50 about 15 minutes ago.

I layed the (2) that ran 3 rd .   Anacreon was any old price at the finish = paid huge the place . >>> The winner was probably the best credentialed in the race but was resuming... finally started fav.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 2:19pm
Wes Hunter's horse was an eye catcher from the back. Up in trip next start in a moderate maiden it will go close.

Pretty keen on Zarpoya in race 4 at Werribee. Had some excuses last start. It's simply better than the opposition. Should be winning.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 3:08pm
That was stealing money. I can't believe they bet $4.20.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Long Row Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 3:28pm
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Wes Hunter's horse was an eye catcher from the back. Up in trip next start in a moderate maiden it will go close.

Pretty keen on Zarpoya in race 4 at Werribee. Had some excuses last start. It's simply better than the opposition. Should be winning.

ClapClapClap

Easy as you like.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 3:38pm
What's going on at Werribee? I haven't got audio at the moment but surely this is a non race? They were in a full gallop for a good 200-300 metres?!

It appears they're running?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 3:48pm
Flying Batya shouldn't have ran. Have a look at the sweat pouring off it. I'd be filthy if l backed it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Long Row Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 3:49pm
That annoys me greatly. Cost Wired the win, and price was destroyed regardless.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 4:48pm
Well done MJB!
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote tillyras Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 4:55pm
A similar thing happened at Port Augusta the other day (friends horse was in it)
The stewards rightfully called it a NO Race
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 5:05pm
Why was Wyong called off? I was looking forward to that last race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2018 at 7:24pm
Storm, lightning, and eventually, light. I happened upon the Sky studio bloke talking about it during the telecast but after 30 seconds of yabber he didn't say which course was involved so I assumed Coffs. LOL 
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