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Bet of the Round |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Posted: 26 Aug 2018 at 8:46am |
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Conditions terrible at Gabba today.
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Wet games in Brisbane and Sydney this weekend
Neds is under 160.5, odds $1.50, for Brisbane/eagles match total. Im going for that Conditions look horrendous
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Wet games in Brisbane and Sydney this weekend
Neds is 170.5 under 160.5, odds $1.50, for Brisbane match total. Im going for that Conditions look horrendous
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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I agree, l think Port win. Kennedy still won't be back so they'll be without NicNat, Gaff and Kennedy.
The only problem is they're predicting rain in Adelaide over the weekend. Have a look at the game total - 151.5. Taking lines could be a worry if it's low scoring. Keep an eye on the weather report closer to game time. GWS v Adelaide is another game which could involve wet conditions. |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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I think Port at -14.5 against Eagles can get it done this week.
Even though I think Eagles are ultimately a better team, they just wont be in a good place mentally this week. And lets be honest, even if you are off just 5%, you get swallowed up. I expect Port to come out firing this week and the Eagles to come out a bit lame and sorry for themselves Port to cover the line, and quite easily.
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mowie
Champion Joined: 18 Dec 2009 Location: echuca flyer! Status: Offline Points: 5210 |
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nope I had the line at 15 points just couldn't see them winning |
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chris Armstrong waller, *drugs are bad mkay
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16245 |
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And in another heavy scoring qtr Redemptions under 142.5 is toast with 90 seconds left on the clock. With all the wild fluctuations in over/under line the BS hedging story she is currently composing will make hilarious reading. |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16245 |
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Well it looks like Brooke/Redpemtion didn’t hedge after all despite a 54pt opening quarter that would have scared the beejesus out of anyone having their “biggest bet of the year”, albeit a pretend one. |
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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It slowed right up in that quarter. I stopped watching. If there's any rain about during the game it'll still fall under 146 no worries at all. |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16245 |
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Low scoring qtr now he over/Uber is ito around 157.5. Now for the uninitiated this is what is going to happen regardless of whether it goes over or under the original total: You will not hear of any hedging strategy from Brooke before the game is either over or the result is known. If it ends up going under the original total then Brooke will come and say she didn’t hedge at all or only hedged a little and still made a good profit. If it ends up going over the original total then Brooke will come on and say she hedged at some point and was able to either lose nothing or only take a small loss. Whichever way it goes you will not hear her give and specific bet amounts or see any screenshots of the bet slips. Why? Because it is all make believe fantasy. |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16245 |
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About 4 min ago - just after 2nd term began. |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16245 |
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Qtr time and the over/under is now around the 168.5 mark. I guess Brooke/Redemption is hedging. Well pretending to anyway.
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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I didn't end up betting. No rain to speak of. There's some wind about and the ground is a touch wet but overall the conditions are okay.
54 in the first quarter. Looks to be going well overs. |
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Hope you took a piece of the $17 on the head to head mowie! They even traded at $81 live in play l heard.
I'll be planting myself in a tab before the start of the West Coast game. If l see it bucketing down l'll be loading up on the under. |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Great bet Mowie Well done. Brilliant. MJB, Ive bet very heavily for todays Perth game. I took the 142.5 under, at $1.90 Will keep an eye on the game in case I have to hedge at halftime etc. Its my biggest bet this year.
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mowie
Champion Joined: 18 Dec 2009 Location: echuca flyer! Status: Offline Points: 5210 |
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got to be suns to cover the line 60 point headstart with loads of swans out, I put 50 on it
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chris Armstrong waller, *drugs are bad mkay
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Redemption, you've been quiet lately. Hope all is well.
Check out the weather forecast for Perth over the weekend. |
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Softy
Champion Joined: 24 Sep 2017 Location: Tas Status: Offline Points: 1248 |
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Just wondering, upon perusal of other racing sites, whether this thread and maybe a couple of others will be closed down due to new legislation passed regarding sports betting / advertising?
Others may know more? |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Good call MJB. Well done
Richmonds intensity is remarkable. On top of what they did last year, they have self belief. Its only added to their new era. I find it quite interesting that the Crows are sinking, after a bizarre pre-season, of punishment, playing Richmonds theme song all week to punish the team, etc, its old psych methods that dont work anymore. I say this, because Richmond have turned to Yoga, led by Dusty. And Collingwood have started going that down path too, and suddenly click into a gear. Its become quite obvious that psych work that revolves around peace, honesty, opening up, Yoga etc, actually works. They build respect, not only for themselves, but for each other. |
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Richmond just a class above. It doesn't matter the conditions.
If they finish top 2 it's done. Give em the flag. Unbeatable at the G. |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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geepez
lol had it penned in for a cats home game in geelong |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 52012 |
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I'm sure they're playing at the MCG today Redemption.
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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This is going to be a genuinely wet game
Its also worth noting, strong defensive sides are really able to limit scores at the Geelong ground, because its a narrow ground. The narrowness enables the forward line to bottleneck faster, because more players are able to get back to the defensive 50 arc, so wet, plus bottleneck and good defensive teams, assure its a low scoring game.
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Yep. Obviously l'm no where near as confident on Richmond as l was a week ago. They should still be winning but it's dangerous messing around with the lines in a bog game. Obviously over 39 is extremely unlikely now.
I think l'll just take the $1.55 head to head in some multi's. Short but sweet. |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Sunday in Geelong looks promising for heavy rains.
Under 140.5, odds $1.82 Also if you want to go safer, Under 150.5, odds $1.40 Thats on Neds |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16245 |
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No you didn’t. Take a screenshot of your betting statement. Won’t happen of course.
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Actually, I kept all bets pre game.
I was happy enough with the wet, it was still slightly slippery on the surface. However the score by the 25th minute mark, got to 36, nearing 40. thats alarm bells, because obviously 4 quarters at 40 points, is 160. So I rang William Hill, score at 36, line 140.5, odds $2.10, and dumped my entire bet In saying this though, and credit where its due, I found myself in the position that Oneonesit warned of. The gap. Had the score finished at 139 or 140, I would have lost my pre-game bets, and all of my hedge bet. Whilst its a small risk, I did find myself stuck with that gap existing of 2 points. Thankfully if went well over that. I actually came out totally even |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16245 |
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Of course Brooke/Redemption limited the loss. Always does. Don’t ask for a screen shot of the bets though. You don’t need them. Just take her word for it. |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 37210 |
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Refer ALP Election Promises
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 37210 |
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At 5pm the weather forecast that I looked at had a " 24% precipitation" prediction. The conditions were therefore as expected.
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Refer ALP Election Promises
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