Nature Strip

Just a clarification djebel.

I do not worry about weight scales. In my early punting life I did, but I found that when a horse was moving through the grades, and they would go up in both weight and class in the one run, if they had been carrying a similar weight in lower grade, they had become accustomed to carrying that weight and there fore the weight in the higher grade was irrelevant, if the increase was less than 1.5 kilos.

A good example of this was All Silent. I remember watching him win, I think it was his third start, in a late season Saturday race with 54 or less.

He then moved into stakes grade and carried 55 and 56 but it took him a few starts until the next autumn, to get used to carrying that extra weight, and when he became accustomed to the 58 at wfa, he was near unbeatable.

That is one reason you see trainers keep running some horses in the lower grades, even when they get big weights, because they know they need to get used to carrying the bigger weights, and then they move them up in grade.

And as I have stated before, I think the 2 kilo allowance for females at wfa is outdated, so I do think the scale favors the females.

The reason I say she was light in, was because the lightest weight she had previously carried was 54.5 kilos, and that was against 2yo's.

I will find it intriguing when or if she drops back to the 3yo fillies grade, and she has to carry the full penalties at 57 or 58, to see how she responds.    

3blindmice wrote: 1050m SOFT5 Nature Strip    13.38 [ 1]   10.78 [ 1]   10.62 [ 1]   10.93 [ 1]   11.73 [ 1]   1:00.68   Gytrash            13.35 [ 3]   10.70 [ 3]   11.16 [ 3]   11.32 [ 1]   12.07 [ 1]   1:01.84  The 2yo was almost as impressive. For those who didn't see, replays are here: https://www.theracessa.com.au/meeting/5147735. You could see NS had Sunlight's measure as they moved around the turn. The disappointing thing is that she showed no fight early in the straight. After that it was just get home safe and sound for her jockey

Horse has run 32 and change from the 800-200, and looked liked he wanted to go faster. Had nothing directly in front of him so he looked like he just pulled the jockey to the front.

Now we’ll probably hear things like “teaching him how to settle”. I’d expect that to work about as well as it is for Theanswermyfriend- reefing and tearing in behind horses. Maybe he will settle over time but for now keep him to 1000 and just let him run.

There was merit in the Flemington win for sure Mikey but 1200m in top class company is a different task altogether. Everest is WFA so he gets no weight relief for his rating. 

mikey wrote: Are you guys for real doubting him at 1200m? He carried topweight last time down the straight at Flemington (the toughest 1200m in Australia) into a 60 km headwind and led the field into the breeze. He will run 1200 metres on his ear & probably get to a mile later in his career if they teach him to settle.

No question he is a query at 1200m. His two attempts at the trip have resulted in ratings well below his best. IMO the headwind angle is hugely overrated. 

3blindmice wrote: Damian Lane and commentators said it was a buffeting headwind

Okay, thanks

Just noticed djebel started this thread after he'd narrowly won a maiden. He correctly predicted he had talent.

What a memory. Show County was one of the best 2 yr olds I've ever seen. Only lost because of the bog track in the Golden Slipper.

Sunlight used all petrol early.    Has had 2 runs on slow losing both.

The Everest field is a totally different Kettle of fish

All interesting.

My above post was in the Melbourne paper this morning.

Will need a run before the Everest. Either Moir which was flagged all along regardless of getting a slot otherwise for mine the Testa Rossa 3 weeks out looks very suitable too. 

David Gately said on Get On that he thinks Nature Strip is the second best horse in Australia, behind Winx of course. Personally I think that's rubbish. The horse is very fast and will probably will tomorrow but I don't expect him to street them like some think he will.

Don’t think this horse wants an easy time. He’s a foot to the floor horse. He’ll have to be more than that to be effective at 1200, but at 1000 they can try and pester him all they like and it won’t matter. I still don’t quite trust him and it’s the worst possible barrier draw for a horse that can be a shade slowly away, but I’m not surprised to see him into $1:40.

If he brings his A game, they won’t get near him.