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Nature Strip |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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They carried the same difference they would have at WFA.
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reductio ad absurdum
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18736 |
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Just a clarification djebel.
I do not worry about weight scales. In my early punting life I did, but I found that when a horse was moving through the grades, and they would go up in both weight and class in the one run, if they had been carrying a similar weight in lower grade, they had become accustomed to carrying that weight and there fore the weight in the higher grade was irrelevant, if the increase was less than 1.5 kilos. A good example of this was All Silent. I remember watching him win, I think it was his third start, in a late season Saturday race with 54 or less. He then moved into stakes grade and carried 55 and 56 but it took him a few starts until the next autumn, to get used to carrying that extra weight, and when he became accustomed to the 58 at wfa, he was near unbeatable. That is one reason you see trainers keep running some horses in the lower grades, even when they get big weights, because they know they need to get used to carrying the bigger weights, and then they move them up in grade. And as I have stated before, I think the 2 kilo allowance for females at wfa is outdated, so I do think the scale favors the females. The reason I say she was light in, was because the lightest weight she had previously carried was 54.5 kilos, and that was against 2yo's. I will find it intriguing when or if she drops back to the 3yo fillies grade, and she has to carry the full penalties at 57 or 58, to see how she responds. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Eureka, that's it Voyager. The missing 2kg. Sundayitis for me (and djebel it seems).
Under the WFA scale fillies and mares get a 2kg allowance which she didn't get yesterday, so in theory she was carrying a 2kg penalty. Again, made no diff imo.
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11728 |
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Horse has run 32 and change from the 800-200, and looked liked he wanted to go faster. Had nothing directly in front of him so he looked like he just pulled the jockey to the front. Now we’ll probably hear things like “teaching him how to settle”. I’d expect that to work about as well as it is for Theanswermyfriend- reefing and tearing in behind horses. Maybe he will settle over time but for now keep him to 1000 and just let him run. |
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monty1
Champion Joined: 30 May 2017 Status: Offline Points: 1060 |
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This filly had an extremely long preparation as a 2year old, she was racing in December, right through to the Golden Slipper at the end of March and here she is racing in July, she obviously didn’t have a long spell. The other Slipper, Diamond runners probably haven’t even had a barrier trial yet. What a huge task she has been set. |
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Brudder_A
Champion Joined: 01 Apr 2013 Location: Uzhhorod Status: Offline Points: 4249 |
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What I saw from the race was that for me it was obvious that Sunlight was not going to fight this one to the finishing line. As soon as she was headed the jockey was like going through the motions. And it was plain as day to me that this is not the main battle in the campaign. How ever long her spell was before this race, this event seemed to be a glorified "barrier trail" especially with far more import and richer races to be run. I also agree with some of the observation pointed out on this thread that Nature Strip will be really tested if the connections were to head to The Everest this season as 1000m - 1100m seem to be his optimum distance and with the times he has run especially on the soft ground at Flemington just recently. Would like to see him next March in the UAE and then head for the King Stand at Royal Ascot. |
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mikey
Champion Joined: 01 Nov 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 511 |
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Are you guys for real doubting him at 1200m? He carried topweight last time down the straight at Flemington (the toughest 1200m in Australia) into a 60 km headwind and led the field into the breeze. He will run 1200 metres on his ear & probably get to a mile later in his career if they teach him to settle.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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There was merit in the Flemington win for sure Mikey but 1200m in top class company is a different task altogether. Everest is WFA so he gets no weight relief for his rating.
Not much doubt in my mind that he needs to learn to conserve energy for the final 200m to be competitive in higher quality 6f races. That said his size, strength, speed and ability to churn out 3 very quick sectionals should stand him in good stead in plenty of open grade races.
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mikey
Champion Joined: 01 Nov 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 511 |
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Ok, fair call.
Nevertheless I hope he gets his chance. |
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monty1
Champion Joined: 30 May 2017 Status: Offline Points: 1060 |
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Correct me if I am wrong but that day the horse were running into a headwind down the back straight so that should have not come into play up the straight.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Damian Lane and commentators said it was a buffeting headwind
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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No question he is a query at 1200m. His two attempts at the trip have resulted in ratings well below his best. IMO the headwind angle is hugely overrated.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Agree 1200m is not his forte yet but he did run 15l quicker than Camdus, Hellova Street etc
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monty1
Champion Joined: 30 May 2017 Status: Offline Points: 1060 |
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Okay, thanks |
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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Average winning margins:
Under 1100m 3.4 lengths 1100m 1.6 lengths 1200m 0.3 lengths
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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Just noticed djebel started this thread after he'd narrowly won a maiden. He correctly predicted he had talent.
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Slammington
Champion Joined: 24 May 2007 Status: Offline Points: 328 |
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Curious placement given he is chasing an Everest slot. James Harron said on Monday he would have looked at him closely if he had taken on Vega Magic last weekend instead of heading to Adelaide.
He should come to Randwick on 18 August for the Show County Quality over the Everest course and distance and try and pick up a slot by winning well there if there is still one available. The other race would be the Premiere on Epsom day but the slots will probably be gone by then given how many slot holders went the early crow this year. |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 51994 |
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Has anyone heard to the contrary yet?
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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Darren is training him for what races suit best without a firm Everest lock in.
He believed Adelaide suited better than the Bletchingly
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Red Rancher
Champion Joined: 28 Oct 2009 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 747 |
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What a memory. Show County was one of the best 2 yr olds I've ever seen. Only lost because of the bog track in the Golden Slipper.
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crooked_gambler
Champion Joined: 27 Jan 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4676 |
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One of the slot holders has made contact with the owners. They are negotiating.
Nature Strip will be running in the McEwen on Sept 8 followed by the Moir on Sept 28 |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Sunlight used all petrol early. Has had 2 runs on slow losing both.
The Everest field is a totally different Kettle of fish All interesting. |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Seems at odds with Weir's previous comments about being aware of not overdoing it. I'd guess one more run before The Everest IF they get a slot.
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crooked_gambler
Champion Joined: 27 Jan 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4676 |
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My above post was in the Melbourne paper this morning.
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Brudder_A
Champion Joined: 01 Apr 2013 Location: Uzhhorod Status: Offline Points: 4249 |
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I'm going to bump this boy's thread. Really impressed me when I was @ Flemington to see him run this winter. I'm not sure about Moonee Valley though, but the way he handled Morphettville this should not be an issue. Shoals and Quilista naturally are rated higher but I don't think they are their suited distances. A good win and then maybe The Everest. Thoughts? |
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Hoffy95
Champion Joined: 07 Oct 2010 Status: Offline Points: 1039 |
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Will need a run before the Everest. Either Moir which was flagged all along regardless of getting a slot otherwise for mine the Testa Rossa 3 weeks out looks very suitable too.
Talk is more about Moir though.
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17382 |
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Already had two starts at MV for a win and a second, so can safely say that will not be an excuse for losing.
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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David Gately said on Get On that he thinks Nature Strip is the second best horse in Australia, behind Winx of course. Personally I think that's rubbish. The horse is very fast and will probably will tomorrow but I don't expect him to street them like some think he will.
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TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16915 |
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Won't get an easy time out-front with Houtzen and Sunday Escape. Better hope he doesn't get buried away on the fence.
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11728 |
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Don’t think this horse wants an easy time. He’s a foot to the floor horse. He’ll have to be more than that to be effective at 1200, but at 1000 they can try and pester him all they like and it won’t matter. I still don’t quite trust him and it’s the worst possible barrier draw for a horse that can be a shade slowly away, but I’m not surprised to see him into $1:40.
If he brings his A game, they won’t get near him. |
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