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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 11:00am |
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I am going out on a limb here and suggest this is the best colt So You Think has produced and the best colt Chris Waller has trained.
I am usually conservative in my estimations of a horse but this guy and Ballet Baby excite me.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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I have a big wrap on him too - not sure I'm saying he's going to be Waller's best colt yet. Trained a couple of nice ones in the past like Zoustar, Kermadec and Brazen Beau.
I actually blackbooked him from the trials last prep, but was disappointed with his debut. On reflection, it was probably very excusable and he probably wasn't ready. His trials this prep have been enormous - especially the recent one. He just needs to show that in a race now and off he goes.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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I know comparatively little (nothing) about breeding but if by chance he reaches the heights it would be yet another example of a well-bred lightly raced mare to the fore. Feel free to set me right but as an ignorant observer it seems to me the breeding push for the progeny of Group, black type etc mares is largely misplaced????? It's probably just that they stand out but well-bred, underperforming mares who have short careers seem to pop up regularly as the dams of good track performers???????
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
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Sadler's Wells/Danehill. Juliet Juliet - who would want more. And it's in my stable so I hope your right Djebel. Didn't do much at its only run.
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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I think that's more about champion mares who race on for season after season - a la Sunline, Makybe Diva etc. I think you'll find your average stakes winning mare that hasn't raced past 5 or more than say 20-30 starts is a great chance at producing stakes winners. The focus is always on the champs because there are few of them and it stands out when they produce slugs. I read something recently though that said Europe has no issue with champion mares producing stakes winners and it could be more to do with our environment or practices.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 52011 |
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3bm, I've seen a few stats & they irrefutably show progeny of G1 mares to be superior, performance wise, which is likely due to higher quality matings, better rearing & training opportunities but as you've suggested, it's not the B all & end all
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Thanks Sunline/Gay. Not that I have any real knowledge of the topic but I was thinking more of those mares served by "acknowedged" sires and only first generation of the dam. If I was truly interested I'd probably scan the Timeform best and G1 winners across the years and check how their mums went. I do like to check the breeding of 2 and 3yr olds that I'm backing and particularly the performance of their siblings but beyond that I leave it to those with vested/deep personal interests.
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AdaHunta
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2016 Status: Offline Points: 3441 |
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Trials might look ok but look at the last 600m SLOW !! Hasn't broken 35 seconds
Race debut they ran home 34.30 and he was found wanting even out sprinted by Kennedy whos a Godolphin B grader and hasn't won a race since Cant see where all this Hype is coming from GOODLUCK !!
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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Must be a quiet Monday Ada. This thread should have gone up on April 1st.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Last 600m has marginal meaning in a 900m trial unless they're running hard from the outset imo. He made up 10l in the last 400m. His own 600m was significantly faster - I'd guesstimate about 0.8 secs looking at margins during the race and at the finish. Overall time was good for the day.
Trial was impressive enough to my eye to warrant attention but he now has to take that form into races over further against experienced horses. Breeding on the dam side has pace and stamina which should help. Long way to go obviously and much too early to predict he'll be a very good horse but I like the bold call. Anyone know what Waller thinks? He's usually reserved until they're 3-3.5yo by which time they've won a few and have been pitted against the clock and better training partners. He was quiet on Egg Tart but all over Omei Sword and even Winx prior to her record run as a late 3yo. |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Both Calculated (Bowman chasing premiership title) and Sparky Lad (another fair trialler from Waller yard) nommed R1 Cant Wed. No markets yet?
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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IMO that is pretty much spot on. Blue blood dams seem to skip a generation or two and then bang! some good ones arrive. Unless of course it is completely bred out of them. Don't they say 90% or so of our decisions are based on fear. Fear if we don't buy a black type mare we will not be successful in breeding. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Yes that has me bamboozled. Adahunter might be right |
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reductio ad absurdum
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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B365 just went up $5/2, $4 for SL.
Sunline ?? just killed it as I was about to place my bet. Into $4.40
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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$3.60 SportsBet atm if you're keen.
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Waller also has Blazeray (Avdulla) in the race djebel.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45805 |
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Interesting race, but perhaps more a question of "darts anyone?".
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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8 markets now up. All $4-4.40 except for PaddyPower SB who are big unders atm
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Certainly took the $5/$1.91. Whether it was me or a tsunami of others that tightened him up I don't know haha. Definitely wasn't there soon after I took it as I tried to push someone else in but was too late. |
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Sunline...simply supreme
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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$3.4-3.9 across the corp board now. TAB has $4
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SkyDancer
Champion Joined: 02 Aug 2014 Location: Cranbourne Status: Offline Points: 8429 |
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Only run to date was very plain to my eye.
Would want to find a few extra gears come race day, trials are trials (overrated) nothing beats an actual race! djebel, I think you have gone the early crow.
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Xavier
Champion Joined: 27 Jul 2016 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 3660 |
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I would fall out of my chair if this horse runs top 4
Sorry punters, but it helps if you take the Waller coloured glasses off every so often |
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Karl and Susan Kennedy are my heroes
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Into $3.5 now.
To respond to some of the above: * Totally agree he needs show he can turn awesome trials into similarly good race performances. I'm prepared to forgive the debut performance but as I said above I was disappointed and I'm guarded about him til then. That's why I was happy with $5/$1.91 but couldn't push anyone to take $3.5. * Can confirm Xavier I don't punt with rose coloured glasses. There's no money in it. If I'm wrong, I'm happy to be wrong. But it won't be because I was fooled by who trains it I assure you. Prepared to back him at the price I got on his most recent trial in particular. They rarely trial like that from that yard if they're not talented. |
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Sunline...simply supreme
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Seemed too obvious to warrant a reply nevertheless you've summed it up well Sunline. Djebel may have been optimistically musing but I'm prepared to go further and label him (Calculated, not djebel) the next big coming. Of what I don't know. Funny things at times, forums
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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Waller - darts
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Xavier
Champion Joined: 27 Jul 2016 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 3660 |
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Wasn't aimed at you Sunline, just a general observation that Waller runners sTart shorter than they would if trained by someone else.
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Karl and Susan Kennedy are my heroes
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Into $3.3 now, with Sportsbet as short as $3.1. They've jumped out of trees to back him this evening.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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room for a slew
Champion Joined: 03 Sep 2011 Location: kirrawee Status: Offline Points: 1722 |
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Certainly has been well backed
Well done to those who got the overs!! If this horse is as good as the talk and money suggests, would be interested to hear wallers thoughts. Would he have primed to win today and then put him away for a bit and target a guineas or spring champion stakes or derby Or would he be building up the horse slowly and is not ready for this 1st up? Or maybe class would get him home regardless? Where is DD for the inside info! ! Good punting all |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Waller scratched the second fav, hence the new market . Price is now silly imo. Bowman gave Calculated a bit of a wrap on radio this morning but suggested his best today is the Lees filly in R3
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Calculated was 2.35 last night before scratchings. Deductions will be interesting |
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reductio ad absurdum
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