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djebel View Drop Down
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    Posted: 03 Jul 2017 at 1:00pm
I am going out on a limb here and suggest this is the best colt So You Think has produced and the best colt Chris Waller has trained.

I am usually conservative in my estimations of a horse but this guy and Ballet Baby excite me.


CALCULATED (AUS)		Bay or brown colt 2014 
So You Think
Bay 2006		High Chaparral
Bay 1999		Sadler's Wells
Bay 1981		Northern Dancer
Bay 1961		Nearctic
Natalma		1954
1957		14-c
2-d
Fairy Bridge
Bay 1975		Bold Reason
Special		1968
1969		19-b
5-h
Kasora
Brown 1993		Darshaan
Brown 1981		Shirley Heights
Delsy		1975
1972		1-l
13-c
Kozana
Brown 1982		Kris
Koblenza		1976
1966		2-o
1-n
Triassic
Bay 1990		Tights
Bay 1981		Nijinsky
Bay 1967		Northern Dancer
Flaming Page		1961
1959		2-d
8-f
Dancealot
Bay 1971		Round Table
Music Please		1954
1963		2-f
16-g
Astral Row
Brown 1979		Long Row
Brown 1970		Linacre
Front Row		1960
1965		15-a
42>
Pak Bun Bay
Bay 1970		Matinee Idol
Philipolo		1956
1960		13-e
13-a
Calchris
Brown or black 2003		Commands
Bay 1996		Danehill
Bay 1986		Danzig
Bay 1977		Northern Dancer
Pas de Nom		1961
1968		2-d
7-a
Razyana
Bay 1981		His Majesty
Spring Adieu		1968
1974		4-d
2-d
Cotehele House
Brown or black 1980		My Swanee
Grey 1963		Petition
Grey Rhythm		1944
1954		16-g
8-j
Eight Carat
Brown 1975		Pieces of Eight
Klairessa		1963
1969		3-o
9-c
Miss Chakra
Brown 1996		Marscay
Chestnut 1979		Biscay
Chestnut 1965		Star Kingdom
Magic Symbol		1946
1956		1-g
2-o
Heart of Market
Bay 1967		To Market
Accroche Coeur		1948
1959		10-a
4-m
Gypsy Way
Bay 1988		Sir Tristram
Bay 1971		Sir Ivor
Isolt		1965
1961		8-g
6-e
Sequita
Bay 1977		Sovereign Edition
Sequitur		1962
1971		13-a
13-a
 Ancestor duplications:Northern Dancer4m,5m x 5m
reductio ad absurdum
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Sunline View Drop Down
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I have a big wrap on him too - not sure I'm saying he's going to be Waller's best colt yet. Trained a couple of nice ones in the past like Zoustar, Kermadec and Brazen Beau.

I actually blackbooked him from the trials last prep, but was disappointed with his debut. On reflection, it was probably very excusable and he probably wasn't ready.

His trials this prep have been enormous - especially the recent one. He just needs to show that in a race now and off he goes.
Sunline...simply supreme
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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I know comparatively little (nothing) about breeding but if by chance he reaches the heights it would be yet another example of a well-bred lightly raced mare to the fore. Feel free to set me right but as an ignorant observer it seems to me the breeding push for the progeny of Group, black type etc mares is largely misplaced????? It's probably just that they stand out but well-bred, underperforming mares who have short careers seem to pop up regularly as the dams of good track performers???????
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Sadler's Wells/Danehill.  Juliet Juliet - who would want more.  And it's in my stable so I hope your right Djebel.  Didn't do much at its only run.
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Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

I know comparatively little (nothing) about breeding but if by chance he reaches the heights it would be yet another example of a well-bred lightly raced mare to the fore. Feel free to set me right but as an ignorant observer it seems to me the breeding push for the progeny of Group, black type etc mares is largely misplaced????? It's probably just that they stand out but well-bred, underperforming mares who have short careers seem to pop up regularly as the dams of good track performers???????



I think that's more about champion mares who race on for season after season - a la Sunline, Makybe Diva etc. I think you'll find your average stakes winning mare that hasn't raced past 5 or more than say 20-30 starts is a great chance at producing stakes winners.

The focus is always on the champs because there are few of them and it stands out when they produce slugs. I read something recently though that said Europe has no issue with champion mares producing stakes winners and it could be more to do with our environment or practices.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Gay3 View Drop Down
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3bm, I've seen a few stats & they irrefutably show progeny of G1 mares to be superior, performance wise, which is likely due to higher quality matings, better rearing & training opportunities but as you've suggested, it's not the B all & end all Big smile
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

3bm, I've seen a few stats & they irrefutably show progeny of G1 mares to be superior, performance wise, which is likely due to higher quality matings, better rearing & training opportunities but as you've suggested, it's not the B all & end all Big smile

Thanks Sunline/Gay. Not that I have any real knowledge of the topic but I was thinking more of those mares served by "acknowedged" sires and only first generation of the dam. If I was truly interested I'd probably scan the Timeform best and G1 winners across the years and check how their mums went. I do like to check the breeding of 2 and 3yr olds that I'm backing and particularly the performance of their siblings but beyond that I leave it to those with vested/deep personal interests. 
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Trials might look ok but look at the last 600m SLOW !! Hasn't broken 35 seconds 

Race debut they ran home 34.30 and he was found wanting even out sprinted by Kennedy whos a Godolphin B grader and hasn't won a race since 

Cant see where all this Hype is coming from 

GOODLUCK !!
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Must be a quiet Monday Ada. This thread should have gone up on April 1st.
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Last 600m has marginal meaning in a 900m trial unless they're running hard from the outset imo. He made up 10l in the last 400m. His own 600m was significantly faster - I'd guesstimate about 0.8 secs looking at margins during the race and at the finish. Overall time was good for the day. 

Trial was impressive enough to my eye to warrant attention but he now has to take that form into races over further against experienced horses. Breeding on the dam side has pace and stamina which should help. Long way to go obviously and much too early to predict he'll be a very good horse but I like  the bold call.

Anyone know what Waller thinks? He's usually reserved until they're 3-3.5yo by which time they've won a few and have been pitted against the clock and better training partners. He was quiet on Egg Tart but all over Omei Sword and even Winx prior to her record run as a late 3yo. 
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Both Calculated (Bowman chasing premiership title) and Sparky Lad (another fair trialler from Waller yard) nommed R1 Cant Wed. No markets yet?
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Aurelius View Drop Down
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Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

I know comparatively little (nothing) about breeding but if by chance he reaches the heights it would be yet another example of a well-bred lightly raced mare to the fore. Feel free to set me right but as an ignorant observer it seems to me the breeding push for the progeny of Group, black type etc mares is largely misplaced????? It's probably just that they stand out but well-bred, underperforming mares who have short careers seem to pop up regularly as the dams of good track performers???????




IMO that is pretty much spot on.

Blue blood dams seem to skip a generation or two and then bang! some good ones arrive.
Unless of course it is completely bred out of them.

Don't they say 90% or so of our decisions are based on fear.
Fear if we don't buy a black type mare we will not be successful in breeding.
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djebel View Drop Down
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Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Both Calculated (Bowman chasing premiership title) and Sparky Lad (another fair trialler from Waller yard) nommed R1 Cant Wed. No markets yet?


Yes that has me bamboozled.

Adahunter might be right
reductio ad absurdum
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3blindmice View Drop Down
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B365 just went up $5/2, $4 for SL. 

Sunline ?? just killed it as I was about to place my betLOL. Into $4.40
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$3.60 SportsBet atm if you're keen.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Waller also has Blazeray (Avdulla) in the race djebel.
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Interesting race, but perhaps more a question of "darts anyone?".
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8 markets now up. All $4-4.40 except for PaddyPower SB who are big unders atm
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Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

B365 just went up $5/2, $4 for SL. 

Sunline ?? just killed it as I was about to place my betLOL. Into $4.40


Certainly took the $5/$1.91. Whether it was me or a tsunami of others that tightened him up I don't know haha. Definitely wasn't there soon after I took it as I tried to push someone else in but was too late.
Sunline...simply supreme
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$3.4-3.9 across the corp board now. TAB has $4
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Only run to date was very plain to my eye.
Would want to find a few extra gears come race day, trials are trials (overrated) nothing beats an actual race!
djebel, I think you have gone the early crow.
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I would fall out of my chair if this horse runs top 4
Sorry punters, but it helps if you take the Waller coloured glasses off every so often
Karl and Susan Kennedy are my heroes
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Into $3.5 now.

To respond to some of the above:

* Totally agree he needs show he can turn awesome trials into similarly good race performances. I'm prepared to forgive the debut performance but as I said above I was disappointed and I'm guarded about him til then. That's why I was happy with $5/$1.91 but couldn't push anyone to take $3.5.

* Can confirm Xavier I don't punt with rose coloured glasses. There's no money in it. If I'm wrong, I'm happy to be wrong. But it won't be because I was fooled by who trains it I assure you.

Prepared to back him at the price I got on his most recent trial in particular. They rarely trial like that from that yard if they're not talented.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Seemed too obvious to warrant a reply nevertheless you've summed it up well Sunline. Djebel may have been optimistically musing but I'm prepared to go further and label him (Calculated, not djebel) the next big coming. Of what I don't know. Funny things at times, forums
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Waller - darts
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Wasn't aimed at you Sunline, just a general observation that Waller runners sTart shorter than they would if trained by someone else.
Karl and Susan Kennedy are my heroes
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Into $3.3 now, with Sportsbet as short as $3.1. They've jumped out of trees to back him this evening.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Certainly has been well backed

Well done to those who got the overs!!

If this horse is as good as the talk and money suggests, would be interested to hear wallers thoughts.

Would he have primed to win today and then put him away for a bit and target a guineas or spring champion stakes or derby

Or would he be building up the horse slowly and is not ready for this 1st up?

Or maybe class would get him home regardless?

Where is DD for the inside info! !

Good punting all
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Waller scratched the second fav, hence the new market . Price is now silly imo. Bowman gave Calculated a bit of a wrap on radio this morning but suggested his best today is the Lees filly in R3
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Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Waller scratched the second fav, hence the new market . Price is now silly imo. Bowman gave Calculated a bit of a wrap on radio this morning but suggested his best today is the Lees filly in R3


Calculated was 2.35 last night before scratchings.

Deductions will be interesting
reductio ad absurdum
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