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Roman Son |
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breeding_above_all
Yearling Joined: 07 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 236 |
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Yes I’m the same
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Prefer to wait 3rd up.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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He'd be a moral in the Christmas Cup.
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reductio ad absurdum
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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He'd be a big risk at 2400 for me. As for today, l'm having something small on him. Good run 1st up. Has a good 2nd up record. Should run top 3 in my book. |
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1573 |
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Ironically I reckon Roman Son would have been a better chance in the Villiers on Saturday given how the respective races were run. They came home in Race 8 in 35.96, which was faster than Fell Swoop in the Razor Sharp, notwithstanding the rain in the intervening period. While the overall time in the Villiers was quicker, the closing sectional was 37.2, which explains how Aloisia was able to charge from the back. With only 53kg, he would have been right in the finish IMO.
He does seem to have come back well. I'll be interested as to whether they nominate for the Summer Cup on the 11 day backup third up. |
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Prince Harada
Foal Joined: 03 Oct 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 19 |
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Anyone keen on him in the Summer Cup boxing day (must at least be a good strong place chance at the odds) drops 5kgs and steps up to the 2000m 3rd up?
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Looking for 2 miles now.
Really needed to be at 2400m last start. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Prince Harada
Foal Joined: 03 Oct 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 19 |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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😆
Watch him running on at the end but never really looking like the winner. Hopefully I remember to switch over from the cricket. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Prince Harada
Foal Joined: 03 Oct 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 19 |
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Must be why I got on at $3.25 plc....
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Best of luck. Hope I am wrong for those who have backed him.
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reductio ad absurdum
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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I don't agree djebel. 3rd up tomorrow at 2000 is perfect for him. Down in the weights. He'll run very well. My only question mark is the class. He's never been in this kind of company before. There's some decent horses in this. He should definitely be around the mark but it's very possible he may find three horses better on the day.
I think he's at his right price now. TAB went up 16's which was clearly overs. He'll run a race for ya Prince Harada. On a side note, wasn't that horse hyped up early doors?! Bloody hell. T Vasil. Horse never amounted to much at all. |
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Also don't forget that in his previous prep - his very last run he got rolled at $1.70 at 2000 metres. He didn't appear to stay that day. He was gone with 200 to go. From memory they went hard in that race. I can't recall if there was any excuses but on that run he definitely won't be getting much further.
I'm sure he'll get 2000 in a moderate run race. But jury is out for me as an out and out stayer. All opinion though. Let's see what he does tomorrow. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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On that day he was simply beaten by faster 2000m horses.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Prince Harada
Foal Joined: 03 Oct 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 19 |
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odds coming in - feeling pretty comfortable he's been set for this,,,but agree plc is bet & that's shy I'm on
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6665 |
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Accepted for the Gosford Cup 2100m (listed) on Thursday.
Kerrin McEvoy booked to ride - nice |
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1573 |
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It's a bit of a D-Day for him tomorrow - fourth up to the 2100m looks ideal, drawn 5 and Kerrin aboard. Doesn't look overly strong and there should be good pressure with Fabrizio and Satono Rasen.
I thought he was entitled to hit the line slightly harder in the Summer Cup. Bayliss got too far back which meant that he was never a winning chance and I am not sure he appreciated changing direction in the straight, but Black and Gold went past him in the last 100. On the plus side, the form through Goodfella and Black and Gold has held up. Hopefully he gets even breaks and a chance to show that he is back to the form from two preps ago. $4.50 into $3.00 suggests that the stable thinks he is cherry ripe. |
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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I personally didn't mind his run last start. The ride was a shocker. Cowboy stuff.
In my opinion it's never easy to make significant ground coming from well back and going inside of other horses. You get better momentum out wide. I think he's ticking over okay. He does look well placed in this race. He probably should be winning if he gets presented at the right time. But l'm in two minds if l should back him or not. My one worry is Gosford. Not sure that track will suit him. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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He should settle closer having had 3 weeks break and being at his peak.
Going to be stinking hot. And it is a pretty good field. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Probably needs 2 miles now.
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reductio ad absurdum
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1573 |
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He certainly looks like he would benefit from another step up in trip, and definitely a bigger track. The announced tactical changed didn't pan out and then he was shuffled back before they put the brakes on up front. Crabbed around the turn, didn't balance up until the 150 and by then it was all over. Hit the line OK.
It looks like a forgive run but he has had a few of those this prep, which is a concern. The Australia Day Cup is there on 28 January, if he is happy to go on the 11 day backup and take on Naval Warfare. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Does he need a damp track ?
I have not felt that was the issue but two people have suggested that to me. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1573 |
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The benchmark system does my head in at times. Roman Son was slugged four benchmark points (2kg) for running fourth in the Gosford Cup, while Satono Rasen (2nd) and Fabrizio (3rd) retained their benchmark. This means that, depending on where topweight is on Monday (if they go that way), Roman Son could meet both Satono and Fabrizio 2kg worse for being beaten by them, which is utterly crazy.
You do wonder at times whether handicappers make value judgements on what should have happened and unduly penalise a horse unduly, before he has had a chance to win a race. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Fabrizio..............60
Satono Rasen....57.5 Roman Sun should have 53 but will get 54, which basically means he needs to run to 2 points better than his rating to be in the finish. It also means he is meeting them 1 kg better off, Should I have the weights correct. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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robbo
Champion Joined: 28 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1573 |
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In the Gosford Cup, we had Fabrizio on 59kg, Satono Rasen on 56.5 and Roman Son on 54kg. His true weight in that race was actually 50kg - the limit of 54kg would have been for a 92 rater and he was an 84. So, he was weighted 4kg above his rating. Now, on a 59-53 spread he gets 53kg against Fabrizio (59kg) and Satono Rasen 56.5kg. That is he meets these two a kilo better, even though his benchmark has gone up four points to their none. His true weight on Monday is 52kg. I guess the question from a handicapping perspective is whether the fact that he ran with merit when four kilos above the handicap in the Gosford Cup warrants the handicapper bumping up his benchmark accordingly, as he appears to have done. It creates a pretty significant disincentive to ever race outside the handicap (i.e. where the true weight is below the minimum). |
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6665 |
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Notice he’s still in both the 2000m race at Randwick on Sat & the 2400m Aust Day Cup at Warwick Farm on Mon.
Wonder if he’ll be scratched from tomorrow & saved for Monday? Or perhaps run in both? Nothing wrong with the old Sat-Mon back up with the right horse. |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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I've been patient this prep. Waiting and waiting and waiting.
Today he gets his wet track and it should be showtime. The only query is the 2400m. He needs to convince me today he is a genuine 2400m stayer. On at $4.8.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Plus Naval Warfare and Etymology take this race to another level to what he has been racing. Great race. Your tips usually shorten, I suspect this one might drift. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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breeding_above_all
Yearling Joined: 07 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 236 |
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ON the money again.. already 4’s.
Interesting one is McDonald chose Santono and didnt take (I’m assuming) the ride on Cummings Eytomology |
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15476 |
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Something must have gone amiss, he was asked for an effort a fair way out and didn't respond and finished tailed off, that can't be his best.
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