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Cityboy
Champion Joined: 24 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 873 |
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If you can refer or guide us to the statistics and facts that demonstrate stallions that have run more than 25 times have a lesser chance of success then I'd Iove to see them.
However, I don't think such statistics or facts exist and therefore suspect you are simply stating one of the many myths that often get repeated,and eventually believed by many in the horse breeding world. |
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bradjm
Champion Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6175 |
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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23/06/15
I penned a story a couple of years ago about Pierro’s retirement and his possible stud success or otherwise - and in that article I made a point of mentioning that Pierro’s sire Lonhro was in many ways quite unique as “99% of what could reasonably be called successful stallions are retired from the racetrack before they’ve had 25 or more starts”. I also noted “very few stallions that have either 1) raced in Australia, or 2) that have been imported into Australia in the last 40 years to stand at stud after their racing career is over, can prove my statement wrong”. There’s no question that Lonhro had 35 starts, so he’s clearly one stallion that overcame my “25 or more starts” theory, but emails came into the website suggesting the names of various stallions that were also heavily raced that were “successful”. One well-known breeding buff sent me an email stating: "Re your article on Pierro's stud prospects, the missing information is what percentage of stallions with 25+ starts actually make it to stud. A very low percentage is my guess. Here are a few who won a championship of one form or another who broke your rule: Vice Regal (60 starts, 21 wins, 16 black-type), Nassipour (46-7-3), Kingdom Bay (37-13-10), Sound Reason (36-13-10), Dahar (26-6-6). Just about all of them exceeded your 60% winners-to-runners and 5% stakeswinners-to-runners parameters)". So what I decided to do was pull out two annual Stallions books 10 years apart and that would be a fair way to research the progeny statistics of all advertised stallions in that publication that had 25 or more starts. I worked off the earliest Stallions book that I have, which is the 1995 edition - and in that edition some 208 stallions were advertised, so here are all the stallions from that listing of 208 stallions that 1) had had 25 starts or more and 2) were considered valuable enough and marketable enough to be advertised in the publication. |
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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STALLION
BEST CAREER WIN/S NO. STARTS SERVICE FEE At Talaq 3 x G1 (Melb Cup) 28 $8,000 Azzaam 1 x G1 (Syd Cup) 47 $3,000 Bay of Hope Welter 44 $2,500 Canadian Silver Listed 29 O/A* Celestial Dancer G3 26 O/A* Cenchire Open Handicap 40 $2,500 Cossack Warrior G2 28 $6,000 Creese Listed 31 $2,750 Dieu D’or Listed 32 $5,000 Donegal Mist G1 63 $3,500 Dr Grace 3 x G1 57 $7,000 Fearless Pride G1 27 O/A* Forever Regal Allowance race 51 O/A* Gopak Open Handicap 28 $1,500 High Regard G1 45 $3,500 Ideal Planet G1 34 $2,500 In The Slot Listed 36 $1,750 Interstellar G1 26 $3,000 Ivory Way Welter 31 $2,500 King’s High 2 X G1 37 $5,000 Lance G3 44 O/A* Maharajah G2 32 $2,000 Military Plume 2 X G1 25 $10,000 Naturalism 3 X G1 34 $12,000 New Atlantis G2 31 $1,500 Noalcoholic G1 28 $4,000 Northern Fred Open Handicap 27 $2,000 Paris Prince G2 47 O/A* Phizam G1 40 $1,500 Polish Blue 3YO Open 28 O/A* Pride of Kellina G3 30 $3,000 Prince Tattenham Open Handicap 66 $1,250 Procol Harum G1 31 $3,000 Quick Score G2 28 $4,000 Rancho Ruler G1 29 $6,000 River of Light Listed 29 $3,000 Rode Rouge Open Handicap 50 $1,000 Royal Pardon G2 43 $2,500 Sanction Open Handicap 32 $7,000 Sarab G1 33 O/A* Sarason G2 28 $2,000 Shalford G3 25 O/A* Sea Swell G2 27 $2,500 Somalia Open Handicap 35 $2,000 Somethingdifferent G2 38 $3,000 Southern Appeal G1 50 $4,000 Sports Works G2 25 $3,000 Super Fiesta G1 28 O/A* Tawrrific G1 64 $3,000 Umatilla G1 38 $5,000 Vain Karioi Listed 45 $3,000 Watney 3 x G1 34 $1,000 White Bridle Open Handicap 32 $3,000 Wonga Chief Class 4 44 $700 Wonga’s Joy Listed 35 $1,500 Yallah Prince Open Handicap 40 $4,000 Yonder G2 25 $4,000 Zoffany 3 x G1 36 $5,500 |
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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STALLION
WINNERS-TO-RUNNERS RATIO STAKESWINNERS-TO-RUNNERS RATIO At Talaq 69.27% 7.53% Celestial Dancer 66.24% 1.45% Cossack Warrior 68.44% 1.22% Naturalism 57.62% 1.35% Military Plume 70.24% 6.58% Noalcoholic 64.60% 4.42% Rancho Ruler 61.45% 2.60% Zoffany 70.77% 3.89% So as you can see from this table, many stallions were able to produce 60% winners-to-runners, or better, but they couldn’t throw the necessary number of black type winners to get them to 5% or above stakeswinners-to-runners. The classic example above is Celestial Dancer. He was a wonderful “bread and butter” sire as he could produce 66.24% winners-to-runners in his stud career yet of his 1031 individual runners, only 1.45% won a stakes race and in fact not one of those 1031 individual runners won a Group 1 race. Celestial Dancer however set a world record in the 1995/96 season by producing over 100 individual winners in a season. If you look at the dearest priced stallion from the entire group of 58 stallions that started 25 times or more – Naturalism - he may well have won three Group 1 races (AJC Derby, Rosehill Guineas and Caulfield Stakes), but he couldn’t even throw 60% winners –to-runners and he could only throw four stakeswinners from 295 individual runners and only one of those four won at Group 3 level or above (Natural Destiny – Group 3) and one of the four won the then Listed 2001 Grand National Hurdle (Nautilism). So from this entire group of 58 stallions only two or 3.44% were proven to be “successful” and they were At Talaq (28 starts) and Military Plume (25 starts). That conversely means that 96.56% of stallions that had had 25 starts or more were unsuccessful at stud, so taking the number of starts that a stallion has in his racing career should constitute a far more important factor to broodmare owners looking for a stallion for their mare/s, stud masters sourcing a stallion, or yearling buyers attending sales than it is currently given. I also wish to publicly thank “Australia and New Zealand’s leading thoroughbred pedigree provider” Arion Pedigrees (www.arion.co.nz) for their wonderful assistance in getting me the final statistical progeny figures of some of these stallions that stood 18 years ago, so that I could research the article fully. |
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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24/06/15
Yesterday I displayed publicly an article which researched the stud career of all advertised stallions that stood in Australia in 1995 - that had had 25 starts or more. The annual Stallions book was the source to name the stallions, as it’s not a cheap exercise to advertise stallions in books like that, so I figured by advertising in that publication, owners of the various stallions were happy in their own mind that their stallion/s were deemed "commercial" and were at least a marketable entity. The article that I wrote yesterday can be read by clicking on the last article at the bottom of this one. It showed that of the 58 "commercial" stallions that stood in Australia in 1995 and had had 25 or more starts, which were advertised in Stallions, only two were deemed to be “successful” by virtue of the fact that they’d achieved a winners-to-runners ratio of 60% as well as a stakeswinners-to-runners ratio of 5%. As at 2005 the stallions named below, that had 25 starts inclusive or more, were advertised in the Stallions book of that year. Naturally some of the stallions that were named in the 1995 article were still standing at stud in 2005, so their names will be duplicated here. As a matter of interest 282 stallions were advertised in the Stallions publication in 2005. Here is the complete list from 2005 Stallions - of stallions that had 25 starts or more: STALLION BEST CAREER WIN NO. STARTS SERVICE FEE Adam 2 X G1 51 $5,000 Admiralty G3 41 $3,300 Arena 2 X G1 32 $13,750 Black Hawk 2 X G1 28 $11,000 Blevic 2 X G1 26 $5,500 Canadian Silver G2 29 FOA* Centre Stalls Listed 26 $3,300 Chatline 3YO Open 27 FOA* Citizen Kane G3 34 $2,000 Curata Storm G1 31 $3,080 Danbird G2 28 $8,800 Danewin 5 X G1 31 $22,000 Dash For Cash 2 X G1 30 $11,000 Delzao G2 27 $7,700 Diatribe 2 X G1 33 $8,250 Dieu D’or Listed 32 $3,300 Ebony Grosve 2 X G1 29 $11,000 Elvstroem 5 x G1 28 $38,500 Falbrav 10 X G1 26 $38,500 Falvelon 2 X G1 37 $13,750 Fantastic Light 6 x G1 25 $27,500 Filante 2 X G1 25 $5,500 Fraar 1 X G1 35 $4,400 Half Hennessy 1 X G1 25 $8,800 High Rolling Listed 28 $4,400 Hobb Alwahtan Open H/cap 29 $3,300 Immovable Option G2 26 FOA* Inflate Listed 25 $3,300 Intergaze 8 x G1 49 $5,500 Jetway Open H/cap 61 $2,200 Jeune 4 X G1 42 $12,100 Lawyer G2 34 $3,300 Lonhro 11 X G1 35 $66,000 Manner Hill G3 41 $5,500 Marwina G3 27 $5,500 Mr Innocent G1 39 $6,050 Mugharreb Listed 28 $5,500 My Patriarch G3 26 $2,200 Naturalism 3 X G1 34 $2,500 Nediym G3 41 $3,300 Nothin’ Leica Dane 2 X G1 27 $5,500 Octagonal 10 X G1 28 $33,000 Principality 1 X G1 25 $3,850 Reenact 1 X G1 30 $5,500 Right Wing G3 37 $4,400 Saithor Open H/cap 29 $3,300 Sequalo G2 40 FOA* Shags Listed 39 $2,000 Show A Heart 4 x G1 33 $17,600 Tabkir Open H/cap 39 $2,750 Taimazov 2 x G1 29 $11,000 Telesto 2 x G1 42 $3,300 Tully Dane G3 33 $5,500 Umatilla G1 38 $6,600 Universal Prince 4 x G1 30 $11,000 Urgent Request 1 X G1 25 $3,300 Vitrinite Listed 60 $3,300 * FOA = Service Fee on application From this above group of 57 stallions that had had 25 or more starts, no fewer than 30 (52.63%) were Group 1 winners either in Australia or overseas when they went off to stand at stud. |
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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From this above group of 57 stallions that had had 25 or more starts, no fewer than 30 (52.63%) were Group 1 winners either in Australia or overseas when they went off to stand at stud.
From this group of 57 stallions the vast majority failed, but ones that need statistically checking publicly to avoid answering copious emails are - in alphabetical order: STALLION % WINNERS-TO-RUNNERS % STAKESWINNERS-TO-RUNNERS Black Hawk 62.47% 1.49% Blevic 58.42% 4.30% Canadian Silver 62.74% 0.75% Danbird 42.1% 0.60% Danewin 71.98% 8.13% Dash For Cash 59.91% 1.69% Elvstroem 48.10% 2.06% Falbrav 57.17% 2.91% Falvelon 62.69% 1.77% Fantastic Light 55.98% 3.40% Filante 53.87% 1.71% Jeune 70.77% 4.92% Lonhro 70.24% 7.85% Nothin’ Leica Dane 56.85% 1.99% Octagonal 62.28% 3.07% Sequalo 67.67% 1.93% Show A Heart 61.70% 3.37% Universal Prince 44.05% 0.00% So from those 57 stallions that had 25 or more racetrack starts only two – Danewin and Lonhro – or 3.50% of the entire group, were later proven to be successful at stud, so conversely 96.50% failed at stud, as in they failed to achieve a winners-to-runners ratio of 60% or higher, as well as a stakeswinners-to-runners ratio of 5% or over. The only four stallions whose names were replicated in both the 1995 list in the original article yesterday and this 2005 list are Canadian Silver, Dieu D’or, Naturalism and Umatilla, meaning that across both articles the statistics of a total of 111 individual stallions that raced 25 times or more were researched and of that 111 only four stallions or 3.60% of the entire group – namely At Talaq, Military Plume, Danewin and Lonhro achieved my “successful sire” statistics. Some 96.40% of the entire group failed at stud, so both broodmare owners and yearling sale buyers need to be aware of the ordinary statistics relating to heavily raced stallions which were randomly picked from being at stud in 1995 and 2005 in Australia. |
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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Pretty simple formula for a successful Stallion.
60% or better Winners to Runners 5% Stakes Winners to runners. Which I think is quite fair. |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45820 |
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The reality is that about 90% of potential sires become relative failures, irrespective of how many starts they might have had.
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
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That's the trouble SC. Most don't make it at stud. There is always something to point out why it didn't succeed. I'd love to know why Helmet and Sepoy seem to be doing much better at stud in Europe! Nothing is cut and dried - sometimes it's just that the stallion is an ideal cross the the vast majority of mares out there. In Australia that means Danehill with a Star Kingdom background. Now if we can find the next great cross we will have an explosion and a breed shaper. At the moment we are just marking time waiting. But breedshapers don't just come along every day.
We had plenty of Northern Dancer blood here before Danehill came. Some very poor indeed despite good race records or pedigrees. He wasn't even the best to come but he had exactly what was needed. He crossed well with Bletchingly and Sir Tristram who had been the two best before him so the ground was prepared for him. But his brother couldn't do it. It was Danehill's group of gene's (which his brother didn't inherit despite the same sire and dam) which was the prize winner. Nothing to do with starts. Just the right combination of genes meeting the right group of mares. |
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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Probably easier just to follow the links;
https://justracing.com.au/just-racing-archives/2017/2/7/pierro-will-he-become-a-successful-sire-in-his-stud-career https://justracing.com.au/just-racing-archives/2017/2/7/stallions-that-have-had-25-starts-or-more-are-very-rarely-successful-at-studpart-1 https://justracing.com.au/just-racing-archives/2017/2/7/stallions-that-have-had-25-starts-or-more-are-very-rarely-successful-at-studpart-2 |
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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Of the ones that make it too stud Furious. |
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slowdown
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2009 Location: Tasmania Status: Offline Points: 8648 |
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you have put a lot of work into this. I wonder what the percentage is overall taking into account the entire entries to the book. too much work I know but it would be interesting.... |
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Rebel - racing. Lionel - in work. Glory - spelling. Ray - spelling. A Wee Nip - in work.
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MichaelM
Champion Joined: 16 Feb 2012 Status: Offline Points: 1758 |
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They are quoting research conducted by Phil Purser. Enough said! |
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Mr Prospector
Champion Joined: 08 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 2025 |
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I think that everyone would agree with that stat , it's a really good criteria for a proven successful stallion . There may be more to the picture than just the number of starts though . These days any stallion with a sexy pedigree who has won a top speed G1 will be retired to the barn early due to the amount of money they can generate at stud . Are sprinting stallions more successsful than staying stallions and in the main which have more starts ? I haven't looked and you may have the answer , what is the percentage of stallions that have retired to stud over the last 5 years have had 25 or more starts ? |
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Aurelius
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Even worse the data comes from Stallion Book! All hail George Michael he really knows his stuff! |
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Aurelius
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*hit P I struggled to come up with that copy and paste. I think the Governer James may be able to pull that stat quite easily! |
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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Looking at the list of stallions from 2005 I would have thought from their performances and type that the most likely to be successful would have been Octagonal, Lonhro then maybe Elvstroem, Danewin and then perhaps Falvelon. That is how I would have thought at the time. ( i have since changed my appraisal of whether a sire will be successful or not). The others would have been line ball or I would have thought they'd struggle anyway. I'm not guessing on the quality of the overseas stallions.
I don't think these sires would have been any better or worse if the had a handful of starts but we are all guessing. Out of interest, what overall percentage of stallions reach the 60% w to r and 5% sw to r? That may be a better way off looking at it.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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bradjm
Champion Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6175 |
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I'd hardly call a stallion who doesn't get 5% stakes winners a flop
You have to factor that in relative to service fee. Very few of those stallions listed would have stood for a large fee in their first few seasons, and most because they weren't sprinting types retired, the type of stallion usually shunned. |
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
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Ok there is another way to look at this. If you point blank don't go to stallions with above 25 starts you are missing out on perhaps improving the breed!
Now Champion Stallions can come and go. Some lines breed on and others disappear. Some live on through the dam side and others just seem to disappear from pedigrees. No doubt about it the ones that continue on are not always the champion of their day but sometimes they have something essential for the breed. Do you remember horses like the ones I list below. They not only had a Championship win or two or three or up to seven. They can still be found in pedigrees today - some pretty far back - but without them the breed would be different. Polymelus - 31 starts and 5 times a Champion Sire - sire of Phalaris sire of Pharos sire of Nearco etc etc Pharos - 30 starts and Champion in both France and England - as above Nearctic - 47 starts and 7 times a Champion Sire - sire of Northern Dancer etc etc etc Nashua - 30 starts - he appears in both Roberto and Mr Prospector lines of which there are many Matrice - 43 starts and the start of the Australia Breed Champion sire - he sired Pago Pago who went out into the world - so generations past we find Dancing Brave, Oasis Dream, Dubawi, Makfi, Power etc Noholme - 41 starts and a Champion Juvenile Sire in the USA - sired a Champion Sire in Nodouble while Savabeel is one Champion sire of today with his influence Halo - 31 starts and 2 times Champion Sire - sire of Sunday Silence need I say more Sundridge - 35 starts and Champion Sire - sire of Sunstar who Star Kingdom was inbred to Round Table - 66 starts and Champion Sire - well we have Sir Tristram blood doing a good job representing him Princequillo - 33 starts - likewise Zabeel, Sir Tristram and Savabeel Heroic - 51 starts and 7 times Champion Sire - Luskin Star, Pago Pago, Dancing Brave etc etc Tom Fool - 30 starts and 4 times Champion Sire - sire of Silly Season who's son Lunchtime is still going strong in Australian pedigrees There are others as well. I think you will find a colt is less likely to race on than a gelding of filly. Probably after five or six undefeated starts it just is too hard to race on and maybe be beaten. But you will find many with few starts don't make it at stud.
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kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
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Agree Furious, I'm sure I'm not the only one who believes that when colts are retired early, particularly as early 3yo's it is mostly because they were early maturers and performed at top level as 2yo's and early 3yo. The trainers, owners, studs know that the rest have caught up. So to keep the appearance of superiority they either invent an injury or blow a small injury into a large injury and rush them off to stud. I could list many examples of this. Now some have genuine injuries and need to be retired. And some of these early retirees may be good for the breed whether a forced or an exaggerated retirement but I like to think that soundness, toughness and maturity need to be a deciding factor in going to a stallion, otherwise the breed suffers all over the world. The Poms and yanks tend to do the same thing as us.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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Stallion stats also are hugely influenced by their mare book.
We often hear the term upgrade - & I am Invincible is a classic example. Now with the good mares, will he get better? Time will telll! When stallions become successful & all the well 'bred' mares go to them, a large number are unraced/non city winners but have a great page - There is a good reason often why they are unraced! Give me a stallion who has had many lightly raced, winning mares in their 1st year & the numbers look better on avg (ie. Iam Inv)
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MichaelM
Champion Joined: 16 Feb 2012 Status: Offline Points: 1758 |
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You're a peculiar one. All I asked was if you truly believed a stallion's genetics were influenced by if they had a hard racing career or not? I assume you referring to me as George Michael is an attempt at name calling? |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45820 |
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Current stallions in Stallions 2016.Looked at all those who've been a stud long enough to establish their credentials.
The following sires raced for three more seasons and/or raced on quite a few occasions, and have proven successful at stud: Artie Schiller, Choisir, Equiano, I Am Invincible, Lonhro, Love Conquers All, Medaglia D'Oro, Show A Heart, So You Think, Starcraft, Star Spangled Banner, Testa Rossa. |
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early4lunch
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I am not sure of his class, plenty of ordinary performances at the top level . Nice horse , solid pedigree and Widden do have a good record of finding a good stallion . $11k is plenty .
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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Redoute's Choice - set up a great model.
10 starts - lightly raced, retired not long after the Orr
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45820 |
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Let's look at the $ equation.
A colt that wins $2m at two or three might go on to win another $1-2m as a 4yo. That's a total of $3-4m. Then again, if he goes to stud at four instead he might generate $4-5m in stud fees that first season, making a total of $6-7m over the same period. So why would you race on at 4 and risk damaging its value? |
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
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Well it certainly making pleanty of mares worth their weight in gold. Look you can get colts who never raced be champion sires and obviously lots in that 10 to 20 mark. But don't mark off the others. They may or may not make the grade but if they have something to offer your mare please look at them.
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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You just wouldnt race on - if its totally about $
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Aurelius
Champion Joined: 08 Apr 2015 Status: Offline Points: 4474 |
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Give it a break Djebel if only you put as much effort into a subject as you do trawling. Pay attention there have been some useful points made. |
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