Go to Villagebet.com.au for free horse racing tips - Click here now |
|
Gingernuts |
Post Reply | Page <12345 7> |
Author | ||
3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
$21/6 Crownbet best atm
|
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Please tell me you don't bet into "futures", blinder ! The men in white coats will be around to pick you up if they find out !
|
||
3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Not usually that far out or that price Max. However $51 Astern and $41 Impending have whet the appetite. If Gingernuts comes up the $21 will be absolute luxury but it's marginal now imo.
|
||
JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11728 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
"He really didn't do all that well in the paddock. I seriously doubt he's a bigger, stronger horse this time in".*
*most unlikely statement ever. |
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
I'd rest on my laurels, I think. It is hard to imagine that you have insights months ahead of time, that don't function near to race day, as well, but what would I know ! |
||
3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Lol Judge. You can't invent growth and weight increases tho. Yankee Rose is one of few I cxan think of who didn't put on a growth spurt from 2-3 (along wioth early 2YOs like Earthquake, Vancouver who already looked 3 at 2). Wonder how YR's done this year.
Gingernuts hasn't been maxed out to date, has a turn of hoof and fairly long sprint, and breeding to go on with it (I think - experts please weigh in). A lot to like.
|
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Futures betting no doubt can have its rewards, but I would say it is strictly for people who have private insights into, for example horses having made great improvement, or having unexposed ability. Otherwise, it is just a heavily loaded game. I recall an old bloke that told me he had a horse running in a CC-MC double for 80,000 pounds.....many millions of $ today, it ran second in a photo. I cannot imagine that bad that would be. But, his insight came with the first leg winner, knowing the connections, and taking their word that the horse was a world-beater, though almost unknown when noms came out. What caught him was that the eventual MC winner was similarly unheralded when he laid the bets.
|
||
3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Yes Max it's a risky game although if I'd known what JMac thought of Astern ('the real deal', 'one of the best I've ridden'...) I might have added a zero to my stake. Turned out he wasn't quite correct but he was when it counted.
In hindsuight both bets had a huge amount of luck attached as it turns out. Astern probably wouldn't have started had the strangles not been covered up by Godolphin and Impending wasn't running until Eagle Farm was replaced by Doomben. How's that for fortuitous circumstances! Suffice to say both had more going for them than the price suggested to me when I bet. Surely that's how most bet. early or late? Dunno really because I'm a racing fan/recreational punter not a pro.
G1Selections has done very well with early betting on NZers for at least a couple of years I believe. I prefer to see my horse parade but that has drawbacks as well. |
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
I'm sure it is most satisfying to get it right, at big odds. But, as you say, fortune plays a big part. I know a bloke who blew up for years about the Dunaden/Red Cadeaux photo....still thinks it should have been a DH at least. What really hurt was the big odds he got, early on.
|
||
3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Not "at least" but as someone who backed Dunaden win only I agree it should have been a DH. A fuzzy pixel "separated" them. DH in every other race on the calendar.
|
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
I'd say a DH would have suited him nicely, he was not a small punter, and he backed a few early on at big prices, including Red Cadeaux. A six-figure payout at least, I'd say. But, that is gambling.
|
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Interesting to read that. I found I had some ability in this area. But only if the ground was not rain-affected. I lost whatever edge I had, in that circumstance. I also found it was not helpful to try to pick amongst a small group of horses pre-selected as the "chances". But all of that may only apply to my looking, the eye of another may have operated differently. |
||
Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31416 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Is there any science to the often stated belief that horses do better when they have spelled in Queensland? Is that just the warmth? Would they do even better if the spelled in Fiji?
|
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
There used to be a theory that horses that travelled north to race in QLD in the winter months, ran well when they resumed in the south later that year, but I doubt that is a fertile field to plough these days. The figures don't support the idea, in recent times. |
||
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21820 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
With the emphasis on the dollar to day they are more likely on a hit an run mission, the patience in the game has been eroded in some way, owners and trainers are being bombarded with race and structural changes at carnival times and long term plans may have gone out with the bath water imo. |
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Yes, the days when big numbers of horses would stay up north for months in winter,and take benefit from the more congenial conditions, seems gone. The carnival, such as it is, is rather more compressed in time these days. It used to runs over a couple of months. In fact, in the past, it would still be running now.
|
||
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21820 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Exactly, they had June AND July to themselves but no they wanted to encroach on Adelaide's May carnival and condense their's, nfi, imo, that's why a lot of horses used to bloom up there because of the spread of the meetings.
|
||
Speediskey
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2014 Status: Offline Points: 4116 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Winx ran in the QLD Winter Carnival and improved afterwards.
Brazen Beau the same. Press Statement the same. All fairly recent examples and all Waller's horses.
|
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Not saying it does not happen, but there is nothing in it for the punter. Of course horses can improve with maturity, no matter where domiciled.
|
||
max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
I remember an old guy, who would religiously follow horses that had wintered (and raced) in Qld, when they re-appeared in the south, in the spring. He never failed to mention the successes, the failures rarely heard of.
|
||
djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
|
||
reductio ad absurdum
|
||
djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
reductio ad absurdum
|
||
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21820 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Nicely rounded little fella, looks forward enough and appears to be wearing plates.
|
||
3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Simply superb run on resuming today. Thundering finish at WFA on a wet track.
Check the replay on the turn where a horse runs under his neck. Might easily have finished in the placings with a clearer run. Still $26 with SB in the CC.
|
||
3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Yes, I do know it's NZ WFA form
|
||
AdaHunta
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2016 Status: Offline Points: 3440 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
BIG run at WFA hes a serious horse
Cox Plate Material or Caulfield Cup horse Take your pick Im all in with the Plate and Cups at massive odds Our middle distance horses are weak only the imports can stop him
|
||
SHOVHOG
Champion Joined: 21 Apr 2014 Status: Offline Points: 1447 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
People do not understand how good this horse is he is an absolute freak. If he draws a decent barrier in the Caulfield cup and gets even luck he will leave hartnell standing still. Was a shame he didn't get the right run yesterday as I was on at the 20s and he was backed into 5s. The 3yo autumn staying firm looks really solid after Jon Snows huge effort and dawn wall's run yesterday.
|
||
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
|
||
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21820 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Well he's no Tulloch yet shovog, but there are a lot of people who are singing his praises,
I for one think he's the top of the pops, if he's weighted around 55 kg for the CC can win. |
||
3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Current ratings would see him with a kilo less Carioca but I doubt he'll be at that level come weights time so 55 is pretty spot on I reckon. I'm not a fan of Bosson but that's my one reservation with this bloke. Think he's made for a CC myself. At least as good as MK
|
||
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21820 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
|
Thinking along the lines 3 bm he would have to be close to WFA standard to warrant the hype, and at this stage I think he's the full package therefore 2 kg under imo would be close, could be a mile out thoug, all depends on the noms. cheers mate. |
||
Post Reply | Page <12345 7> |
Tweet |
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum |