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The Everest
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RED HUNTER View Drop Down
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Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

Okay I will have a go at the NSW TAB's pick the top ten for $10 million.

1. No.1
2. No.3
3. No.2
4. No.9
5. No.6
6. No.10
7. No.4
8. No.7
9. No.8
10. No.5

Houtzen and Tulip are $151.

******************************************

Top 10....you pick one from a possible 3,628,800 combinations.

if they asked you pick the field in order there are 479,001,600 combinations
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max manewer View Drop Down
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Many, if not most players, will drop the two roughest out of their "10", but rarely do the two at the bottom of the market, run those placings.
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Lordy View Drop Down
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How do they determine the emrgencies for the race?
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max manewer View Drop Down
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Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

Many, if not most players, will drop the two roughest out of their "10", but rarely do the two at the bottom of the market, run those placings.

By my calculations, that scenario plays out about 10% of the time, in twelve horse fields. Picking what will run last ain't easy !
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fisherman View Drop Down
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Originally posted by Lordy Lordy wrote:

How do they determine the emrgencies for the race?

They had to come from nominations for the Lightning Stakes..Not sure the process from there but believe there may have been a ring around slot holders and came up with these 4. There's a standard contract deal that each emergency and Slot holder need to agree to so as not to drag out the process and believe if need the slot holder can pick from the 4 not necessarily in the order listed.

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Wow, the Equine Fund gets a hefty boost 😲

Race 8 - 4:15PM THE EVEREST (1200 METRES) Times displayed in local time of Race Meeting Of $10,000,000.1st $5,800,000, 2nd $1,425,000, 3rd $800,000, 4th $400,000, 5th $250,000, 6th $175,000, 7th $175,000, 8th $175,000, 9th $175,000, 10th $175,000, 11th $175,000, 12th $175,000, Equine Welfare Fund $100,000 . SPECIAL CONDITION
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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scamanda View Drop Down
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Great barrier draw.

I think SWR will get a lovely run behind the lead.
Houtzen can only do well when leading so will try at least.
Redzel can outpace most of the field and is drawn to be either outside the ladder or in the one one.

I have always liked SWR for this, and nothing has changed.

She can lead, she can take a sit, she can sit right back in the field.

Many of these don't adapt as well as her.

She Will Reign too brilliant.
Redzel.
Redkirk Warrior.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Agree Scamanda
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VPI View Drop Down
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Originally posted by cabosanlucas cabosanlucas wrote:

topical tip if you wanna get the chocolates...

Redzel/ tulip = red tulip.

Redkirk warrior /tulip = red tulip.

fwiw....
Have a Quality Street.Clap

Will have to see how track plays but Vega Magic on top at the moment. 
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HoraceThe Wiz View Drop Down
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Betfair dont have The Everest available at the moment but they do have some races listed for Saturday Caulfield.  Dont know why.Shocked
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max manewer View Drop Down
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Originally posted by HoraceThe Wiz HoraceThe Wiz wrote:

Betfair dont have The Everest available at the moment but they do have some races listed for Saturday Caulfield.  Dont know why.Shocked

Might have something to do with the emergencies not being known. The conditions surrounding this race appears to require a lawyer to clarify, seems quite confusing to me in more ways than one.
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Seriously, you are kidding yourself if you think SWR can be beaten. Box seat, light weight, BOOM - finishes like a train ... Easy.😂
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Sorry T, but just flashing late to beat Viddora on a track which half the field had no hope on, is not my idea of the best form coming into this race.

If She Will Reign wins this she is the best female winner of the Slipper. this century, and we have had some good ones.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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I'd say she's the one who had the least hope on that track, that's why her winning was incredible.
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scamanda View Drop Down
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Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

Sorry T, but just flashing late to beat Viddora on a track which half the field had no hope on, is not my idea of the best form coming into this race.

If She Will Reign wins this she is the best female winner of the Slipper. this century, and we have had some good ones.

She had no hope.

She was too far back to win yet win she did. AT MOONEE VALLEY. Her first run the Melbourne way of running. That is good form. Look at the quality behind her. Malaguerra, Terravista, Russian Revolution and Heatherly.

Her previous wins have her on pace, and kicking away. The Sydney way of running.

She may not win, but you are further from the mark than any other post I've seen regarding this race.

IMO.
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Originally posted by scamanda scamanda wrote:

Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

Sorry T, but just flashing late to beat Viddora on a track which half the field had no hope on, is not my idea of the best form coming into this race.

If She Will Reign wins this she is the best female winner of the Slipper. this century, and we have had some good ones.


She had no hope.

She was too far back to win yet win she did. AT MOONEE VALLEY. Her first run the Melbourne way of running. That is good form. Look at the quality behind her. Malaguerra, Terravista, Russian Revolution and Heatherly.

Her previous wins have her on pace, and kicking away. The Sydney way of running.

She may not win, but you are further from the mark than any other post I've seen regarding this race.

IMO.


You're seriously using a horse who bled for the second time as an indicator of the strength of her performance last start?
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maccamax View Drop Down
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The strength of the last start is in the times run ( compared to others & the course record ) Best on the night after getting well back and widest run.     Narrow win granted.
   My heart is with Redzel in what is quite a contest.
Appears plenty of chances, and us old women are allowed to change our mind .
The race is a lifetime away      
   
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cabosanlucas View Drop Down
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Originally posted by VPI VPI wrote:

Originally posted by cabosanlucas cabosanlucas wrote:

topical tip if you wanna get the chocolates...

Redzel/ tulip = red tulip.

Redkirk warrior /tulip = red tulip.

fwiw....

Have a Quality Street.Clap

Will have to see how track plays but Vega Magic on top at the moment. 


Lol, quality street...they use to come in the big silver tin.

Its SWR for mine. standout trifecta from / redkirk warrior, vega magic, tulip, chautaqua
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Breeding Above All View Drop Down
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Redkkrk warrior, Deploy or Redzel for me.. SWR certainly looks well placed, but is unders considering who she has beaten
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Regan Bayliss was floored by Vega's gallop the Sydney way around the other day. He actually had to check himself and explain that he still wouldn't change rides. But we know what he really thinks.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Lordy View Drop Down
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Originally posted by BlackKnight BlackKnight wrote:

Originally posted by scamanda scamanda wrote:

Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

Sorry T, but just flashing late to beat Viddora on a track which half the field had no hope on, is not my idea of the best form coming into this race.

If She Will Reign wins this she is the best female winner of the Slipper. this century, and we have had some good ones.


She had no hope.

She was too far back to win yet win she did. AT MOONEE VALLEY. Her first run the Melbourne way of running. That is good form. Look at the quality behind her. Malaguerra, Terravista, Russian Revolution and Heatherly.

Her previous wins have her on pace, and kicking away. The Sydney way of running.

She may not win, but you are further from the mark than any other post I've seen regarding this race.

IMO.


You're seriously using a horse who bled for the second time as an indicator of the strength of her performance last start?

First 3 across the line were all massive runs.  Viddora just needed clear air to win.  Sheidel probably wins if she wasn't caught up in a suicidal tempo.  I doubt either runner would be at the point end of the market in the Everest. 

Right now there is nothing to say that Moir form is any worse or better than many other runners here.  SWR is a genuine chance for sure.  But no certainty by any stretch.
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Breeding Above All View Drop Down
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Redzel, Deploy, would have made a mess of them imo in the Moir.. on pace would have demolished them
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VOYAGER View Drop Down
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Okay just asking a question here.

If Viddora, Sheidel, Rock Magic, Malaguerra and Terravista were all lining up here, then what price would they be?

I agree that SWR will improve back to Randwick, but up a kilo, and up in grade is not usually a recipe for success.

And lets say she had lost that race by a half head instead of winning. Is that better form than say Brave Smash who has beaten Santa Anna Lane (group 1 winner since), Keen Array (group 2 winner since) and just being beaten by Vega Magic (group 1 winner next start) or Bons Away (4th in group 2 next start).

Her only second up run was her worst, although it was on a heavy and she did run second to Frolic, but to offset that she did improve off that to beat Frolic by three in the Slipper.

On her exposed form I just can not see her winning, but there is the unknown factor of how much she has improved.  
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They didn't line up here - they lined up over 1000m at MV.
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Pretty sure Fatinaah probably should have won the Moir as well
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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I thought the Moir was an odd race to run SWR in. It would not have bothered me if she lost, as far as this race goes.
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fisherman View Drop Down
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Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:


Her only second up run was her worst, although it was on a heavy and she did run second to Frolic, but to offset that she did improve off that to beat Frolic by three in the Slipper.



Her only second was on a bog track and Tommy Berry took a punt heading to the outside fence on Frolic that proved to be the only bit of descent track on the day...And every winner for the rest of the meeting followed suit. Had it not been the first race on the day my guess is she would have been on the same bit of ground and won that race as well. Sure she needs to have matured and improved but a good barrier and 7kg weight advantage is a good start.
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Viddora was simply held up too long and would have won the Moir had she got a clear run a touch earlier.

That said, a huge first up run from SWR.
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Originally posted by Breeding Above All Breeding Above All wrote:

Redzel, Deploy, would have made a mess of them imo in the Moir.. on pace would have demolished them


To support your statement, both smashed the Course record at Randwick in recent times.    Redzel over 1100 & Deploy over 1200 ( this Course )

Might be great value in both.    We can do a Dutch.
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Vega v SWR!!
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