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The Everest |
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Speediskey
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2014 Status: Offline Points: 4116 |
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Looks a bit slow to be coming down here.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Caravaggio sore and unlikely to travel for The Everest
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Thanks, So it will not be just a matter of freshening him up, although he obviously will comeback fresh.
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reductio ad absurdum
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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ATC announnced its shortlist today. Now subject to negotiation and further assessment.
"Alphabetic order":
Brave Smash Clearly Innocent Global Glamour Le Romain Redzel Heys' comment regarding Spieth's spring program yesterday now makes sense. Same article reported that despite comments by officials Spieth had pulled up well after the race on Sat. |
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fisherman
Champion Joined: 07 May 2015 Location: Cronulla Status: Offline Points: 1188 |
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So Redzel is in unless Brave Smash wins by 10 this weekend...
I still don't get the logic of the Everest not being Black type therefore not as big a draw for Speith being an entire. Surely to win the first Everest would be noted in his record with an asterisk much like the MM for Houtzen.
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Underground
Champion Joined: 18 Aug 2012 Location: Sydn Status: Offline Points: 683 |
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Spieth has no chance either way
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linghi11
Champion Joined: 18 Apr 2013 Status: Online Points: 7452 |
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I'd say they know they're no hope and this is a convenient excuse. |
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to the victor
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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That's the initial reaction to not even being shortlisted by the ATC I'd say Fish. If someone else snaps him up there may be a change of plans. Can't for the life of me see how GG would rate above him at WFA 1200m despite him not yet winning at G1 level. Brave Smash was terrific first up but again has yet to be proven at WFA/G1 so I'd have him behind Spieth as well.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Bit of politics behind the Brave Smash shortlisting I'd suggest. No obvious OS rep must be a real disappointment for them at this point.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31302 |
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Surely only a braindead zombie could read a stallion cv and be less impressed with an Everest win than a, well I could name a dozen weaker G1s but let's say a Goodwood or a BTC Cup.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31302 |
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Says in the Terrorgraph that Chaut is the top rated sprinter in the world. Seriously? That can't be right- he's won 1 race out of his last 6 starts.
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fisherman
Champion Joined: 07 May 2015 Location: Cronulla Status: Offline Points: 1188 |
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According to the ratings he is but then again they still rate Arrogate ahead of Winx as well.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Chau's rating was courtesy of TJ no 3. Hasn't raced since and no-one else has reached his mark.
New international ratings will be interesting in 10 days time. Arrogate must come off his 134. Question is whether he drops enough for Winx to perhaps join him. Doubt she keeps her 132 but with the dark arts of ratings who knows.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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If his 134 does not stand ( I suspect it will ) than he will drop a few rungs down the list. Winx's rating will not have improved since her Queen Elizabeth win. Enable must be a chance of usurping both of them at the top. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Hoffy95
Champion Joined: 07 Oct 2010 Status: Offline Points: 1039 |
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Ratings DO NOT go down on poor performances, they only go up or stay the same until the new year. Winx has to overtake Arrogate.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Longines IIFHA ratings are done every few month Hoffy, based on performances in that period. If you don't run you obviously can't move but if you do you can definitely drop. Longines is however based on results in "elite races" so it's possible neither Arrogate nor Winx will shift. Don't know what grade Arrogate got beaten in in his last two but Winx hasn't stepped into elite grade so far this prep.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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That is not quite correct. Battaash who is rated the second best sprinter for this period has only ever won to group 2 level and had yet to run in a group 1 race when these ratings where published. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Only quoting what I remember reading djebel. Don't know what they class as "elite races" in each jurisdiction but if they're dipping into G2 and G3 in ANZ then I'd trust them about as much as I trust TF - ie with significant reservation.
Here's their intro spiel: Longines Rankings The LONGINES World's Best Racehorse Rankings is horseracing's equivalent to World Rankings by other major sporting organizations such as ATP Tennis Rankings, World Golf Rankings, FIFA World Rankings for soccer and IRB Rugby World Rankings. The LONGINES Rankings are based on the ratings earned by horses running worldwide from North and South America, Europe, Middle East, South Africa, Asia through to Australia and New Zealand. The ratings are compiled under the auspices of The International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA) by racing officials & handicappers representing the five continents who compile the ranking order by agreeing on the rating for each horse. The ratings are based on the performance of horses in elite races held during the designated period which takes in account the quality of opposition and achievements of each horse. Throughout the year the Longines Rankings are published at regular intervals and the consolidated annual rankings are released in January. The annual rankings denote the champions in the various distance categories for example sprint or mile, surface either turf or dirt/artificial and also the fillies & mares category. |
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horseshoe
Champion Joined: 10 Dec 2008 Location: Tess' Paddock Status: Offline Points: 4526 |
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Avdulla to ride Chautauqua
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Those who know don't tell, Those who tell don't know
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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At least I hope that's a leg pull.
Wow, just googled and I'm not having a nightmare, it's true. Gobsmacked.
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Lordy
Champion Joined: 22 May 2010 Location: Sunshine State Status: Offline Points: 13887 |
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In what universe does Brave Smash get on this list?
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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Yeah I don't get the wraps on Brave Smash. On form looks like a second tier horse when in Japan. His first up run here was good, but nothing to suggest he's top tier.
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Underground
Champion Joined: 18 Aug 2012 Location: Sydn Status: Offline Points: 683 |
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Houtzen is even more ridiculous. Beat up on some Queenslanders as a 2 year old and beaten pretty easily in the slipper. Atleast for BRave Smash the Vega Magic form looks far better even with the weight, would certainly choose it over Le Romain or Global Glamour lol
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Hoffy95
Champion Joined: 07 Oct 2010 Status: Offline Points: 1039 |
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Redzel the clear pick of them on that list. We'll know more about Brave Smash Saturday afternoon.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31302 |
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She lost once on a heavy 10. Could be another Black Caviar for all I know. The 3yos are an open book because of the Sydney autumn permabog.
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Underground
Champion Joined: 18 Aug 2012 Location: Sydn Status: Offline Points: 683 |
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lol. could be!
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MichaelM
Champion Joined: 16 Feb 2012 Status: Offline Points: 1758 |
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The way she won the Magic Millions was freakish and the form from that is holding up very well.
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Underground
Champion Joined: 18 Aug 2012 Location: Sydn Status: Offline Points: 683 |
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have to disagree there, a *restricted* listed race with Chauffeur, Invader and Madeenaty the only real decent horses to run behind it and even they look like Group 2/3 animals or a bit better over distance (Invader).. literally no other good horses in that race. just struggling to see how this horse is 5th fav, we shall see
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The Stallion
Champion Joined: 17 Feb 2010 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 1019 |
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Houtzen is a serous racehorse. MM win was very good. I feel you will be changing your tone after Saturday. Brave Smash wouldn't see which way she went. Out of that list, Redzel should get the nod.
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That's the smell of victory, you can't wash that out.
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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I'd go for Redzel too (from that list).
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