2017 Melbourne Cup

Single Gaze for the MC- oh dear. She'll try her heart out but won't stay and will get beaten by 15 lengths or more.

Tlazolteotl wrote: Single Gaze for the MC- oh dear. She'll try her heart out but won't stay and will get beaten by 15 lengths or more.

Agree. poor thing will get run over from the 800.

djebel wrote: I bet she is the first Aussie bred to cross the line.

That will be a contest between two Flying Spurs and one Not A Single Doubt. Have I missed something?

Pitiful. The whole Australian thoroughbred industry can't produce one horse that can stay. Not one. Ah, you gotta laugh.

I got it with Prince of Penzance at 100/1 (only a small %) but the tri only paid $21,000 for $1.  Skinny for a 100/1 winner in a 24 horse field.

ExceedAndExcel wrote: HoraceThe Wiz wrote: The Melb Cup trifectas are not as big as they should be when the outsiders come in because of all the mystery trifecta tickets.  There are 12144 permutations in a 24 horse field, so if a trifecta should pay 100,000 based on the huge prices of the placings then it will only pay a fraction of that as 1 in every 12144 mystery tickets will win (assuming they are completely random). I always thought mysteries were programmed to include at least one of the top couple of favourites. I could be wrong of course but do recall a few people saying this. The dividends to seem a little skinny though which is why I'm looking at first 4s. Have got the trifecta a couple of times and been quite underwealmed with the return.

There was the understanding that they did include at least one fancied horse, but I have seen tickets with the QTAB that were all bolters. May be different elsewhere.

Tlazolteotl wrote: djebel wrote: I bet she is the first Aussie bred to cross the line. That will be a contest between two Flying Spurs and one Not A Single Doubt. Have I missed something? Pitiful. The whole Australian thoroughbred industry can't produce one horse that can stay. Not one. Ah, you gotta laugh.

Interesting point, could these horses be throwing more to the female influence of Rolls , Encosta de Lago Also decends from this line , he seems to be able to throw a stayer , both via m & f crosses.

On Cup Tris and F4's since 2000's race, it appears there is not much to pick between second, third, and fourth, as regards how wide to go. Win is different, only 2 horses won outside of the top 9 in market order. But for the others, you need to go our to rank 15 of the (usually) 24, to net most of them. That strategy (9 to win, 15 for the minors) in both bet types, showed a strike rate of 11 out of 17 years for both types of bet, and a good profit for each. But the cost is considerable $1638 Trifecta, and $19656 F4, for $1 unit. And of course, you can still lose badly even if you snag it. I don't like scatter-gun betting, but if there is a race that lends itself to it, the Cup is it.

8-14-14-14 actually does better, POT. The outlay drops a lot.(1248, 13728)
Tris a collect 2000-2002, 2006-2007, 2009-2011, 2014, 2016.
10 years out of 17.

max manewer wrote: When I played around successfully with F4 when it first started ( usually only available 1 or 2 races per day at the start), the best strategy was to restrict the selections for first and second to horses in the market, and go wide for 3rd and 4th. But the Cup is not a typical race. The pools are much greater, and there is the chance that striking a rough result will pay handsomely, where in small pools there is not enough there to meet the odds needed.

Your last part is what I am thinking. I don't follow racing anywhere near as much as I once did and this year has been even worse so I am not really interested in doing much form for what will likely be a futile exersize. I'm looking for something like we have been discussing that I can easily apply. Looking at the dividends that these stategies would have collected doesn't excite me too much despite it being profitable. I will probably end up modifying it to go a little wider in the hope of jagging something significant. How wide I go I'm not sure yet.

Cost is definitely a big issue with these things I find as I'm also not interested in having a tiny percentage. 25% would be around the lowest I would go.

So I think I will need to take a set against a few at the head of the market to enable wider selections at the other end. Something like a first 4 with 2 roving bankers out of the top 5 in the market and box market order 6-19 for the other two spots.

Melbourne Cup contender Mask of Time was injured at trackwork this morning. Has since has his leg placed in a splint and being assisted by vets.

djebel wrote: I bet she is the first Aussie bred to cross the line.

I change my mind, Boom Time will obviously be the first Aus bred home.

It is pretty obvious that on every Melbourne Cup outsiders are overbet and horses upto $11.00 are underbet as once- a- year punters want to win something a little more than $ 5 for their five bob each way That is reflected across the board in all bet types , the favourite always opens big overs the place, but once the heavy hitting punters realise it offers overs it is crunched down to marginal overs.

Hi guys:

cotto1 wrote: Hi guys: Just wondering what has max dynamite been up to.I see he is back in the mix this year.He went brilliant a couple of years ago and nearly won the thing.just curious was all.

will run well