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2017 Melbourne Cup |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31422 |
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Single Gaze for the MC- oh dear. She'll try her heart out but won't stay and will get beaten by 15 lengths or more.
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HoraceThe Wiz
Yearling Joined: 17 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 155 |
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The Melb Cup trifectas are not as big as they should be when the outsiders come in because of all the mystery trifecta tickets. There are 12144 permutations in a 24 horse field, so if a trifecta should pay 100,000 based on the huge prices of the placings then it will only pay a fraction of that as 1 in every 12144 mystery tickets will win (assuming they are completely random).
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Vintedge was good to me!
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cabosanlucas
Champion Joined: 15 Jun 2013 Status: Offline Points: 7363 |
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Agree. poor thing will get run over from the 800. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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I bet she is the first Aussie bred to cross the line.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31422 |
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That will be a contest between two Flying Spurs and one Not A Single Doubt. Have I missed something? Pitiful. The whole Australian thoroughbred industry can't produce one horse that can stay. Not one. Ah, you gotta laugh. |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16244 |
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I always thought mysteries were programmed to include at least one of the top couple of favourites. I could be wrong of course but do recall a few people saying this. The dividends to seem a little skinny though which is why I'm looking at first 4s. Have got the trifecta a couple of times and been quite underwealmed with the return. |
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HoraceThe Wiz
Yearling Joined: 17 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 155 |
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I got it with Prince of Penzance at 100/1 (only a small %) but the tri only paid $21,000 for $1. Skinny for a 100/1 winner in a 24 horse field.
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Vintedge was good to me!
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8680 |
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See link below to article....Boom Time given a 1kg penalty, will now carry 53kg in the Melbourne Cup
https://www.racing.com/news/2017-10-23/melbourne-cup-penalty-for-boom-time |
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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There was the understanding that they did include at least one fancied horse, but I have seen tickets with the QTAB that were all bolters. May be different elsewhere. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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The breeding industry produces plenty of stamina the training industry kisss it up. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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goldey
Champion Joined: 29 Dec 2012 Location: cairns Status: Offline Points: 5940 |
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Interesting point, could these horses be throwing more to the female influence of Rolls , Encosta de Lago Also decends from this line , he seems to be able to throw a stayer , both via m & f crosses. |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16244 |
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Who knows the I guess. I would be surprised if it was truly random though. They would most likely want to direct money in a certain direction for some business purpose. Perhaps the aim may be for mystery bets to get a payout more often than a true random selection would give so as to maintain interest in them. Just guessing here of course. |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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On Cup Tris and F4's since 2000's race, it appears there is not much to pick between second, third, and fourth, as regards how wide to go. Win is different, only 2 horses won outside of the top 9 in market order. But for the others, you need to go our to rank 15 of the (usually) 24, to net most of them. That strategy (9 to win, 15 for the minors) in both bet types, showed a strike rate of 11 out of 17 years for both types of bet, and a good profit for each. But the cost is considerable $1638 Trifecta, and $19656 F4, for $1 unit. And of course, you can still lose badly even if you snag it. I don't like scatter-gun betting, but if there is a race that lends itself to it, the Cup is it.
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16244 |
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Interesting. What years would this approach have won in? How about if you removed 1 selection ie top 8 to win with top 14 for the minors? |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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8-14-14-14 actually does better, POT. The outlay drops a lot.(1248, 13728)
Tris a collect 2000-2002, 2006-2007, 2009-2011, 2014, 2016. 10 years out of 17. |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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When I played around successfully with F4 when it first started ( usually only available 1 or 2 races per day at the start), the best strategy was to restrict the selections for first and second to horses in the market, and go wide for 3rd and 4th. But the Cup is not a typical race. The pools are much greater, and there is the chance that striking a rough result will pay handsomely, where in small pools there is not enough there to meet the odds needed.
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16244 |
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Your last part is what I am thinking. I don't follow racing anywhere near as much as I once did and this year has been even worse so I am not really interested in doing much form for what will likely be a futile exersize. I'm looking for something like we have been discussing that I can easily apply. Looking at the dividends that these stategies would have collected doesn't excite me too much despite it being profitable. I will probably end up modifying it to go a little wider in the hope of jagging something significant. How wide I go I'm not sure yet. |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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I think it is too "scattergun" to be including combos where all the minors from 2-4th are filled by roughies. I think you need at least two of the 4 in a first 4, being in the market, and one of those 2 winning. Otherwise, it is too expensive. I'll look further into it after Derby Day, if the track looks biased, well it might be "stay out". POP was an education !
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16244 |
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Cost is definitely a big issue with these things I find as I'm also not interested in having a tiny percentage. 25% would be around the lowest I would go.
So I think I will need to take a set against a few at the head of the market to enable wider selections at the other end. Something like a first 4 with 2 roving bankers out of the top 5 in the market and box market order 6-19 for the other two spots. |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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I'm think you need at least one roughie in the F4, and a maximum of two.( a roughie being defined here as anything outside the top 9 in the market). That would have jagged the F4 13 out of 17 times. But of course it is about outlay and return. Boxing the top 9 has lost around 20% this century, suggesting that you need a roughie somewhere in the mix.
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 52004 |
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Melbourne Cup contender Mask of Time was injured at trackwork this
morning. Has since has his leg placed in a splint and being assisted by
vets.
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Magnolian Khan
Champion Joined: 23 Dec 2015 Location: SA Status: Offline Points: 8437 |
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Correction - Kennedy Mile contender. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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I change my mind, Boom Time will obviously be the first Aus bred home. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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TOLEDO
Champion Joined: 17 Jul 2009 Status: Offline Points: 604 |
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I think the reason trifectas like prince of penzance pay lower than expected is the large number of box trifectas sold on the melb cup. I think mysteries are weighted to odds but obviously in a box the order is not weighted to the starting price
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13676 |
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It is pretty obvious that on every Melbourne Cup outsiders are overbet and horses upto $11.00 are underbet as once- a- year punters want to win something a little more than $ 5 for their five bob each way That is reflected across the board in all bet types , the favourite always opens big overs the place, but once the heavy hitting punters realise it offers overs it is crunched down to marginal overs.
There might be two million five bob punters betting on any one tote pool , but two or three hundred heavy hitters will outlay just as much on their perceived overs. Nothing has changed since off course betting was legalised back in the 1960's as far as the betting on the Melbourne Cup.
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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The shorter end of the markets is likely marginal overs, as you say BB. That being the case, the roughies are a lost cause, by and large.
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cotto1
Yearling Joined: 24 Jul 2016 Status: Offline Points: 119 |
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Hi guys:
Just wondering what has max dynamite been up to.I see he is back in the mix this year.He went brilliant a couple of years ago and nearly won the thing.just curious was all. |
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Redemption
Champion Joined: 09 Apr 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 5387 |
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Will run a place Been watching him the past 2 years and was on him in the cup he ran 2nd, in the superslow cup he is the real deal max, and come back after minor injuries i rate him as highly as heartbreak city, and heartbreak city streeted the field last year with almandin if its a truly run cup, i have max as a moral to place. regarding other comments, by other posters, betting value etc 100 percent correct. outsiders start shorter than they should. its a great race for value at $6 to $20 shots I was on delta blues at $20 many horses start way shorter than they should, like $40, when they should really be $90 i think lloyd williams is toying with everyone almandin wins at flemington a month ago, smashes field, could have done another lap. then a boring run next up, probably didnt feed him or something weird. then lloyd makes sir isaac newton run the caulfield cup field into the ground, it was totally brutal that cup. they were all plodding at the end. sets it up for almandin in the melbourne cup. people have to understand, lloyd has one obsession. the melbourne cup. he is playing the game im sensing some huge avalanche bets for almandin, like the good old days, with lloyd and packer who backed jezabeel for a fortune and won maybe he feels like a big big punt this year. there is something really strange going on about lloyds cup bid this year, and it all revolves around almandin i think almandin is very very very good. what is he, around $7?? lets see if theres a good old betting smash, down to $4.50 at the last minute. lloyd maybe about to rekindle the good ole days. a huge punt. just saying, i smell a rat. something suss brewing. lloyd, almandin. BANG.
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jimbob04
Champion Joined: 24 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 2856 |
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will run well |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31422 |
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You are quite the conspiracy theorist. |
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