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Redkirk Warrior |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Sunline ... SO FUNNY ... Someone took my 5.9 for $7.80... The price went to $6... So I greened up ... I now win 65 cents if RW wins and 3cents any other ....
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Short memory? We've been over the BC form and visit ad nauseam but you keep ignoring the basic facts. But moving on...... 2/15 is a pointless stat without knowing the number, quality and form of starters in that 15 year period. The unfortunate loss by Brazen Beau (another Williams brain fart) has also been mentioned so arguably 3/15 from very few starters takes on a different perspective. But all that vanishes as soon as they line up on Sat. If both are in near peak form and the track plays fair they have undoubted claims despite not having run up that particular course.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I don't know the others but appears not much depth .
Not much betting happening on Betfair but many longer priced ones going out .. Looks about Hawkesbury Welter Class . |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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I guess I am not disproving that thought but it will be a lot more superior to this years Everest. Unless one or 3 of these turn up for the Everest.
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reductio ad absurdum
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I've just been having a look at some of their history on R & S . Redzel would eat all of them lol . Kementari could carry the fav & win. I'm reading the book too ... How to win friends and influence people. |
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Sneck
Champion Joined: 16 Feb 2013 Location: Payout Queue Status: Offline Points: 7555 |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Good to have you on the RW ticket .
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Sunline...simply supreme
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Sneck... Have you heard of our warped sense of humour on here .
We are Tongue in cheek re the class but it's an ordinary lot really aye .I'm teaching djebel on how to be truly mad. I've had the experience. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Redzel is now a second class citizen.
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reductio ad absurdum
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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ME TOO ... I just told SUNLINE Redkirk would blow towards $10 ( not knowing the crap in that field ) and now I've just layed it for a reasonable bet at $4.4... I can't believe it. It must go out longer than that .... Stealing it is . |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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My mistake ... it was 5.2 my last bet layed .... 4.2 /1 |
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8678 |
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What day does Redkirk Warrior run?
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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Saturday
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Our Newmarket at Flemington makes it look like the Bong Bong Cup. |
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Why are people potting Redkirk?
If he runs to his best he would clearly win the race. I think that's indisputable isn't it? I know it's a big if but l wouldn't be betting against it from happening. Two runs in England in his early days for two wins. He might like it over there as much as he likes the straight at Flemington. What's the knock on him? Clearly in career best form too. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I Do't think there's any great knock on him . Only 3 in the betting and many have a high opinion of our other rep. Surprising to me, the main betting ( not much action ) has been on Redkirk. My few small sets have resulted in the following picture so far ;_ = Harry Angel $5.34 Merchant Navy $5.34 Redkirk Warrior $6.46 Bound For Nowhere $5.34 The Tin Man $5.34 All others $5.34 profit ... For those not experienced , That's TRADING. DON'T TAKE THESE STUPID EARLY, ALL IN PRICES ( It's stealing ) |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31417 |
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If they ran the Newmarket again on a fair track I have no idea who would win out of RW and MN.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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The young one will be a big improver MN.... I backed RW in the Newmarket and expect he will go well fresh . Will be interesting when the UK market goes to start time with the huge Pool. Hopefully the ups and downs will provide a Traders dream. |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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He needs to be macca. In poor at the weights for that defeat. Needs to have improved a couple and Redkirk come back a couple.
I love Merchant Navy. Always been one of mine. But for me the value play in this race was Redkirk. I don't trust the Irish mafia that he was underdone last start. They're trying to improve his service fee.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I don't know the UK WFA scale but MN is entitled to improve some. WHY are some people taking as low as $5.2 Redkirk on Betfair when he is $6.50 on Sportsbet . Madness. |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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He's treated a 4yo over there so as a mid Nov foal (five months off actually turning 4) he isn't getting any favours under their scale. No quid pro quo with the way we treat their 3yos racing here during the spring, which is very poor imo.
RW trackwork video:
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11728 |
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MN weight conditions same as Starspangledbanner and Star Witness? First and third respectively.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45716 |
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Unsurprisingly spot on about the relative weight disadvantage for the 3yo blinder.
No doubt Atreus will ignore that reality should the colt get beaten, be it by a fart or a furlong.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Yes. SSB was the "prefectly timed" foal though - 1/8, so nearly 4yo. SW was foaled late Sept
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Aside from the obvious - that being he is carrying more weight than he should be for his age simply because the Poms still think we're convicts - it's the weight turn-around vs Redkirk Warrior that is most relevant. RW beat him in the Newmarket and meets him far better here for that beating.
Not impossible by any stretch, particularly assuming he has improved. But I dare say it will also require Redkirk Warrior to underperform. That too can quite easily happen.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Think you will find at this time of season ( November ) 3yos in Europe over a sprint trip carry the same weight at WFA.
21 October last year the 3yos in the Sprint Championship at Ascot the 3yos carried just 1 lb less than their elders. Last fortnight of June is the equivalent of last fortnight of November in their season. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Plenty on Betfair to Lay the mighty Warrior.
I'm expecting the Brits & their neighbours to back the convicts OUT come race time . I'm trying to lay him .... Name yr own price. |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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They only get 1kg off the 4yo+ cohort in Australia this time of year, which is only another half a kilo more than 1 lb.
For me, it's the weight turn-around on Redkirk Warrior that is the biggest factor.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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5.5 kgs is a massive turn around in 4 months.
The difference at WFA is 2.5 kgs in favour of Redkirk Warrior if you believe the WFA scale is correct. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Online Points: 11391 |
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^^^thats how I was assessing it. RW meeting MV with 2.5kg advantage.
But I was think MV had a better prep..... Then I heard about the 4.20 bundle bet. So that's me! |
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