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Craig Williams |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I'm relying on a failing memory , but the last horse I saw win from well back in Randwick sprints were on heavy ground. |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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When you look at the stats for horses that press on from wide draws, you see it is far preferable to easing.
SETTLING POSITION % RETURN (SP) 1-4 110 5-8 84 9-12 70 13+ 60 |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Good stats Max.. That supports the on pace debate . Shame for the Everest fav. that connections weren't aware, apparently . Brownie points for Sunline's argument. |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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Certainly applies over most sprint courses, but curiously not so much at the Randwick 1200, where being in the top 4 in the run from wide, yields only average results.
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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If Redzel stays home, or gets a migraine going around to the start, Vega Magic romps in, and Craig has ridden a blinder. You can over-analyse these things.
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Donald Hiltonson
Champion Joined: 21 Oct 2015 Status: Offline Points: 456 |
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Where do those stats refer to horses pressing forward from a wide draw? And what are stats for horses pushing forward to ride outside of Redzel? Probably not very good I reckon if anyone’s tried it |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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Those are just some numbers I have cobbled together, They are pretty accurate, but of limited utility, as guessing where they finish up in the run in a very inexact science, to say the least. But it does show that pressing on is a better plan, by and large. Depending on the sectionals of course, but you don't know what they will carve out before the jump either. Maybe the smarter jocks know it is more the percentage play, but you don't know what instructions they have been given,that might over-ride their natural inclination.
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Donald Hiltonson
Champion Joined: 21 Oct 2015 Status: Offline Points: 456 |
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But the stats don’t tell you what barrier they came from. For all we know from those stats the strike rate of horses pushing forward from a wide barrier might be zero. The stats don’t say otherwise
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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Yes, not a great deal of advantage to be forward in the run there, on the wet, by the looks. Other places, generally still better up front. Getting clods in the face can't make them go forward ! |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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I did say wide draws. I think it was either 10 or 11 outwards. But if you back one out there, and even it has a history of going forward, probably still a coin toss what they will decide to do, on the day. |
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hatch
Champion Joined: 14 Oct 2008 Status: Offline Points: 6360 |
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Vega Magic has won 12 races ,but none as quick as this race was ran at . That should tell us something.
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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It tells us nothing. Times on different tracks on different days with different conditions mean bugger all
They run 1:07 for 1200m in NZ |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45707 |
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exactly.
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Nocturnal
Champion Joined: 26 Sep 2008 Location: at the 800 Status: Offline Points: 13667 |
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A mate sent me a stat today , CW last 69 rides in Sydney has resulted in 4 winners .. fiddlesticks grand idea to let him ride Vega magic in a $10 million race
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The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Hi Hatch.. Good obs. . The variables of racing are more complex than Chess. To win on the punt :- In order:- A bank, Self control of that bank, recognising poor value, Patience, I've got none of the above now days . Good Form Students have no trouble coming up with enough winners. Recognise horses are truly honest in the main, only peak near to the Grand Final. Only give your time to the open class and better restricted age races. Realise there are few atheists about when the photo is close. Pleased to see u again. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Fastest in every Race wins it. Variables are many. Sectionals/ Times are just one of them BUT Name me a champion who didn't register sizzling times and /or sectionals. NZ times are recorded fast and I'm NOT sure they have Electronics there yet. The Everest had entries who hold 3 Sydney Course Records. One won it with 1/2 K more weight . The other ( Deploy )went up in class and 2K in weight Black Caviar & Miss Andretti who won at Ascot UK still hold several Melbourne course reords. |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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lover of just sitting deep no cover without a care in the world.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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Caul 1200m mate. Only one turn, it gets said time after time. Can't be said enough. Craig had him right where he mapped, in the perfect spot to win for that course but found one better.
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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I agree it's not a harsh deep run, no question. But it doesn't change that it's better again to be one off the fence or leading. My only question there is, when you've drawn 10 and your horse begins like a bull out of a gate and you can get across with some urgency, why hand up and let them muster underneath you? He just sits there casually as though he's riding in Ireland.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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Well he did identically the same as McEvoy did on Earthquake in the Blue Diamond. As predicted Earthquake sat wide until time to straighten and won.
Jukebox found one too good. Take a sit and run the risk of running 3rd.
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79532 |
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According to Trakus JUKEBOX covered 2m more than FORMALITY
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Nocturnal
Champion Joined: 26 Sep 2008 Location: at the 800 Status: Offline Points: 13667 |
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Scamanda , I note your point re the tracking but when your horse is pulling why take hold to sit 3 wide , surely pushing forward to the breeze or lead its is a better option , let McEvoy run you down not visa versa . I thought it was brain dead ride and yes I backed it .
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The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....
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room for a slew
Champion Joined: 04 Sep 2011 Location: kirrawee Status: Offline Points: 1722 |
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Can only hope the fish he is having this week is high in omega 3s to enhance neurotransmitter connection and cognitive function so as to give Amelies Star every chance in the cup on Saturday.
After vega magic, now jukebox today I'm not sure I could handle another willow stinkfist when so much is at stake |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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You blokes are concentrating too hard. Hang loose !
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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I'm still waiting to hear from someone who was gifted a winner, because some jockey on an opposing runner, rode a dodgy race. One day......
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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We were gifted a winner today Max .. Our star trifecta The 3 S's got onto a time horse and spread the word at nice odds.= God bless him . Osborne's Balls .. ( Whale will fix the spelling ) |
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 31 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41457 |
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Well some of Sydney,s finest left a gap a mack truck could get thru on the rails , for Robert, who took full advantage of it, and won on his only ride in Sydney . I think it was , anyway. Last Sat.
So I think I was gifted a winner thanks to all the rest of the jocks in that race on Sat. The old bushie blew them away |
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animals before people.
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 12 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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In all seriousness, they weren't going that hard in the Everest and Williams was on a G1 1400m animal that does most of his winning from the pointy end of the pack... in my mind, he wussed out of a speed battle that didn't exist.
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Magnolian Khan
Champion Joined: 23 Dec 2015 Location: SA Status: Offline Points: 8437 |
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I had $10 on Prince of Penzance in the Melbourne Cup, did send a thank you message to Dettori |
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