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Amralah |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Posted: 12 Oct 2015 at 2:14pm |
I'm sure most heard Amralah received a 2kg penalty, which all but guarantees him a spot in the Melbourne Cup as he only needs something like 4 or so horses above him to fall out.
I'm saying the $26 available with Bet365 is overs. I'm already on at an average price of nearly $29 but I would happily take $26 had I not backed him yet. He's just about in the race - which is a massive start for any pre-post betting you're doing as the race will be extremely tough to get into this year - and he has a very winnable weight. You can't get enough of imports/internationals who have class, light weights and win their way into the race through excellent staying performances like what he produced on Saturday.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Delta Deel
Champion Joined: 25 Aug 2015 Status: Offline Points: 8896 |
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Only question mark is he may not run Sunny, williams tells lots of porkies but he is still saying McKinnon is an option than spell. I dont believe him but still a risk if loading up
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Fair point, I didn't know he was saying McKinnon only is an option. None of us know what he's thinking/doing, but one thing we all know and he can't hide is he only cares about the Melbourne Cup and any horse that can make it he will do his best to get them there.
I did some $ on this horse last year and he didn't get there, I'll be very surprised if he doesn't this year. You're right though it's always a gamble taking Williams pre-post.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17411 |
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Anything out of Nick Williams mouth you need to take with a grain of salt.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31445 |
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Ha ha ha- more chance of Tony Abbott becoming a muslim than Amralah missing Melbourne Cup if fit.
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SYT
Champion Joined: 10 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8337 |
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Running.
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Kingy
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2009 Location: Warrnambool Status: Offline Points: 8310 |
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Me missus has $200 on at $51 with Sportsbet. She had an even bigger smile when it romped in on the weekend and me being a prick said "it's not even qualified for the cup yet so you might have blown $200"... boy was I wrong
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Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
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Amralah on the Cup borderline · 12:00pm · |Tom Biddington - @TomBiddington · Tweet Amralah cruises to victory in the Herbert Power (Photo courtesy of Slickpix) Amralah is on the verge of getting a run in the Melbourne Cup after being penalised 2kg for his dominant win in the Herbert Power Stakes on Saturday. Racing Victoria’s chief handicapper Greg Carpenter announced the penalty on Monday morning, which moves Amralah up to 27th on the order of entry with 53.5kg. The Melbourne Cup has a capacity field of 24, so the Robert Hickmott-trained stayer will need some attrition to ensure a start in the $6 million Group 1. The penalty is the same given to previous Herbert Power Stakes winners Big Memory (2014) and Leica Falcon (2005). Carpenter acknowledged Amralah has now won twice since allocating his original Melbourne Cup weight of 51.5kg, and feels the extra 2kg is fair. “I thought his performance on Saturday was outstanding - knuckled at the start, Hugh Bowman made a mid-race move where he circled the field and at the end of it, he was pretty impressive,” Carpenter said. “There was probably more thought about going to 1.5kg than there was 2.5kg, but the decision to make 2kg was one that was fully supported by our handicapping panel here at Racing Victoria. “In recent years, generally, it’s been a 1.5kg penalty. “It’s more a decision about where he sits in the weights... the 53.5kg will be a challenge for him but I think he can certainly run in the top five or six.” Owner Lloyd Williams confirmed on Sunday that Amralah wouldn’t run in the Caulfield Cup, and instead will compete in either the Mackinnon Stakes or the Melbourne Cup next. The last horse to complete the Herbert Power Stakes–Melbourne Cup double was Rogan Josh in 1999. Rogan Josh did not receive a penalty for his 2-length win in the Herbert Power. The following week Rogan Josh ran 4th in the Caulfield Cup, then won the Mackinnon Stakes and then the Melbourne Cup and a month later ran 4th in the Hong Kong Vase. |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Lloyd has confirmed he goes straight to the Cup.
Giddy up. |
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Mug-Punter
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2014 Location: Central Coast Status: Offline Points: 1007 |
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Damien Oliver to ride in the Big Dance I believe!
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The Mugg
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Where did you read/hear that, Mug?
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Speediskey
Champion Joined: 18 Feb 2014 Status: Offline Points: 4116 |
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It's on Racenet.
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Mug-Punter
Champion Joined: 23 Feb 2014 Location: Central Coast Status: Offline Points: 1007 |
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Bensley on Twitter earlier today as well.
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The Mugg
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 11 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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Caulfield Cup & Cox Plate winning hopes with Cup in mind would already be qualified, but the winners of the Lexus & Mackinnon will climb over him. Also needs to hope something like Dandino or Pornichet (i.e. those with enough, or near enough weight, but not yet passing the first ballot clause) doesn't do a demolition job on the Geelong or Bendigo Cups.
He's far from in the field. |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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You haven't allowed for a single horse to pull out through injury or otherwise though. Still loads of time for attrition.
Wait til the RVIC vets get their hands on a few.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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The $26 was a good price. I give him a great chance on winning. Was very good on Saturday and may even improve in the MC.
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Go Flash Go
Champion Joined: 08 Mar 2007 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 10250 |
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That horse could not have been any fitter on Saturday no wonder he's going straight in on that condition - can he hold it for 3 weeks ...
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Backing up from 2000m the week previous...I'm sure he looked pretty tight.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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The Nem
Champion Joined: 20 May 2008 Status: Offline Points: 586 |
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Is the McKinnon a balloted race? Thought it was just the Lexus...
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Show me a good loser and i'll show you a loser...
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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With the way this bloke licked Excess Knowledge after nearly falling at the start and circling the field with 58.5kg, I would have loved to see him in action yesterday.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Muss
Champion Joined: 14 Aug 2007 Status: Offline Points: 1379 |
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Yeah I reckon they screwed up there.
Sandown maybe? |
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Keyboard Warrior
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6683 |
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Is his system now clear of the drug now? I was supposed that he wasn't in the noms for the Queens Cup on Saturday. Would have been a nice consolation for missing the Cup run
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subastral
Champion Joined: 28 Jul 2011 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 34887 |
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He will win Zipping Classic at Sandown
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31445 |
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Would have won the Cup by 2.3 lengths pulling up.
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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Entirely possible.
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jujuno
Champion Joined: 25 Jan 2010 Location: Coasting Status: Offline Points: 36519 |
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Lloyd on MC night...
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Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...
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linghi11
Champion Joined: 17 Apr 2013 Status: Offline Points: 7497 |
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If they had emergencies they could have waited till Cup morning!
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to the victor
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SkyDancer
Champion Joined: 02 Aug 2014 Location: Cranbourne Status: Offline Points: 8429 |
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i thought he had been sent to the paddock
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 11 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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James
Champion Joined: 15 Jan 2011 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 7230 |
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Williams lodges writ over Cup scratchingLloyd Williams and his syndicate of owners have filed a Victorian Supreme Court writ seeking damages over Herbert Power Stakes winner Amralah testing positive to a banned substance. In suing Ballarat vet Brian Anderson, Williams is claiming "catastrophic loss and harm" as Amralah's spring campaign was brought to an abrupt half because of a positive test to Dexafort, a long-acting cortisone that contains Dexamethasone. The claim says Amralah tested positive after his win in the Tokyo City Stakes in Adelaide on September 19 and an inquiry is pending. Nine further tests on Amralah up to November 16 also returned positive readings. The claim says Williams and the entire's part-owners missed out on potential prize money in the millions because it had to be scratched from the Melbourne Cup. They are also suing for loss of potential earnings from Amralah's stud career because they allege his value has now been diminished. Williams paid $1.15 million for Amralah as a tried horse from Ireland, according to the writ. It is claimed Dr Anderson and his clinic BVP Pty Ltd failed to exercise reasonable skill and care and failed to ensure the treatment did not prevent Amralah from racing. |
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