Why are Australian bred stayers slow?

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 12:24am

FASCINATING ROCK (IRE)

Bay colt 2011

Fastnet Rock Bay 2001	Danehill Bay 1986	Danzig Bay 1977	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Natalma	1954 1957	14-c 2-d
		Danzig Bay 1977	Pas de Nom Bay or brown 1968	Admiral's Voyage Petitioner	1959 1952	4-n 7-a
		Razyana Bay 1981	His Majesty Bay 1968	Ribot Flower Bowl	1952 1952	4-l 4-d
		Razyana Bay 1981	Spring Adieu Bay 1974	Buckpasser Natalma	1963 1957	1-s 2-d
	Piccadilly Circus Bay 1995	Royal Academy Bay 1987	Nijinsky Bay 1967	Northern Dancer Flaming Page	1961 1959	2-d 8-f
		Royal Academy Bay 1987	Crimson Saint Chestnut 1969	Crimson Satan Bolero Rose	1959 1958	26> 8-c
		Gatana Bay 1989	Marauding Bay 1984	Sir Tristram Biscalowe	1971 1979	6-e 4-i
		Gatana Bay 1989	Twigalae Bay 1979	Twig Moss Hondalae	1973 1968	1-k 2-f
Miss Polaris Bay 2001	Polar Falcon Brown 1987	Nureyev Bay 1977	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Natalma	1954 1957	14-c 2-d
		Nureyev Bay 1977	Special Bay 1969	Forli Thong	1963 1964	3-b 5-h
		Marie d'Argonne Chestnut 1981	Jefferson Chestnut 1967	Charlottesville Monticella	1957 1955	14-a 1-t
		Marie d'Argonne Chestnut 1981	Mohair Chestnut 1974	Blue Tom Imberline	1964 1957	1-h 8-c
	Sarabah Bay 1988	Ela-Mana-Mou Bay 1976	Pitcairn Bay 1971	Petingo Border Bounty	1965 1965	22> 7-a
		Ela-Mana-Mou Bay 1976	Rose Bertin Chestnut 1970	High Hat Wide Awake	1957 1964	2-o 3-g
		Be Discreet Bay 1981	Junius Bay 1976	Raja Baba Solid Thought	1968 1957	3-l 3-n
		Be Discreet Bay 1981	Querida Bay or brown 1975	Habitat Principia	1966 1970	4-r 16-a

Ancestor duplications:

Northern Dancer

4m,5m x 4m

Natalma

5m,5f x 5m

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 5:30am

I am predicting that the overseas horses win nothing this year.

It will be an all Aus/NZ clean sweep for the big 3

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 6:04am

Backed mk thought he was the closest to a good thing in the cc I've seen n years.

However from a mc point of view fame game is going to eat them , good late sectionals and he really poweredto the line in the tenno sho

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 12:40pm

What do you suppose John Sadler is trying to achieve with Mansale ?

MANSALE (AUS)

Grey colt 2011

High Chaparral Bay 1999	Sadler's Wells Bay 1981	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Brown 1954	Nearco Lady Angela	1935 1944	4-r 14-c
		Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Natalma Bay 1957	Native Dancer Almahmoud	1950 1947	5-f 2-d
		Fairy Bridge Bay 1975	Bold Reason Bay 1968	Hail to Reason Lalun	1958 1952	4-n 19-b
		Fairy Bridge Bay 1975	Special Bay 1969	Forli Thong	1963 1964	3-b 5-h
	Kasora Brown 1993	Darshaan Brown 1981	Shirley Heights Bay 1975	Mill Reef Hardiemma	1968 1969	22-d 1-l
		Darshaan Brown 1981	Delsy Brown 1972	Abdos Kelty	1959 1965	1-e 13-c
		Kozana Brown 1982	Kris Chestnut 1976	Sharpen Up Doubly Sure	1969 1971	5-i 2-o
		Kozana Brown 1982	Koblenza Brown 1966	Hugh Lupus Kalimara	1952 1960	19> 1-n
Dynamic Flyer Grey 1999	Marauding Bay 1984	Sir Tristram Bay 1971	Sir Ivor Bay 1965	Sir Gaylord Attica	1959 1953	2-s 8-g
		Sir Tristram Bay 1971	Isolt Bay 1961	Round Table All My Eye	1954 1954	2-f 6-e
		Biscalowe Chestnut 1979	Biscay Chestnut 1965	Star Kingdom Magic Symbol	1946 1956	1-g 2-o
		Biscalowe Chestnut 1979	Nunkalowe Brown 1972	Boysie Boy San la Salle	1965 1953	2-o 4-i
	Bianco Flyer Grey 1984	Godswalk Grey 1974	Dancer's Image Grey 1965	Native Dancer Noors Image	1950 1953	5-f 4-r
		Godswalk Grey 1974	Kate's Intent Bay 1964	Intentionally Julie Kate	1956 1957	5-j 2-h
		Bianco Lady Bay 1977	Rangong Bay 1965	Right Royal Crepina	1958 1956	3-f 16-d
		Bianco Lady Bay 1977	Marree Bay 1965	Test Case Lady Yet	1958 1949	9-c 3-a

Ancestor duplications:

Native Dancer

5f x 5m

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 2:10pm

Bianco Lady was a strong stayer who won the Perth Cup.

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 2:12pm

Tlazolteotl wrote:

Bianco Lady was a strong stayer who won the Perth Cup.

Are you implying there is not enough stamina in that pedigree?

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 4:17pm

No I think he means the horse has only run over 1200 to 1400m. If trained in England it would maybe come out first over 2000m.

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 4:20pm

Are you arguing with yourself, Tlaz?

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 4:32pm

Just out of curiostiy - before Mongholian Khan, who was the last Australian bred horse to win the Caulfield Cup?

Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 4:43pm

Jamal wrote:

Just out of curiostiy - before Mongholian Khan, who was the last Australian bred horse to win the Caulfield Cup?

Fawkner, two years ago.

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 5:15pm

Two years prior we had Southern Speed. Two years before Viewed. Then back to 2005 for Railings, 2004 Elvstroem, 2003 Mummify, 2202 Northerly. Only two New Zealand breds in the same period.

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 5:18pm

Is it just me, or is their a fair few high chap over zabeel mares running around?

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 6:43pm

Maybe too much stamina to stamina. Must work sometimes but maybe also lots of very slow runners.

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 11:09pm

Godswalk was Champion Sprinter up here.

TBV - where it is the Silly Season all year round.

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Posted: 18 Oct 2015 at 11:17pm

furious wrote:

Maybe too much stamina to stamina. Must work sometimes but maybe also lots of very slow runners.

They are not stamina to stamina are they ?

They are top class to top class.

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 19 Oct 2015 at 6:48am

Not talking about that pedigree. Zabeel and High Chaparral are both staying sires. Zabeels can be leggy and light. High Chaparral fillies have been overlooked due to a light tendency. So maybe not a good match on types thrown. On paper good, maybe not so in practice. No doubt you could get a good one but it might take a number of tries.

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Posted: 19 Oct 2015 at 9:47am

Wasn't there a perception [maybe backed up by stats] that their was a huge difference in performance and potential between High Chaps males and females?

I think it was high chap females were no good compared to the males?

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Posted: 19 Oct 2015 at 10:34am

Some good ones have emerged. Fenway for one is a filly bred High Chaparral/Zabeel mare. So the cross does work. Helps to see Danehill sire of the 2nd dam and the female line of Denise's Joy is strong with fillies. So each horse pedigree has to be taken differently.

Also looking into the stats 43 foals 25 starters 17 winners 5 stakes winner is pretty good.

Sadler's Wells out of Danehill mares is 162 starters 120 winners and 32 stakes winners.

So on that High Chaparral/Zabeel works. But I'd still want to know the female line first.

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Posted: 19 Oct 2015 at 1:31pm

It certainly worked with dundeel and to a lesser extent alpine eagle

Zabeels worked being light and leggy maybe its best goingwith a similar type in a stallion

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Posted: 19 Oct 2015 at 2:04pm

I like the Nureyev to Sadler's Wells anyway. And with Dundeel I like the Fiesta Star 1-n/13c cross to the 1-n of High Chaparral. Alpine Eagle doesn't have those other back ups. Still a quality horse if it would only behave.

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Posted: 22 Oct 2015 at 1:28pm

MICONDESA (AUS)

Bay filly 2012

High Chaparral Bay 1999	Sadler's Wells Bay 1981	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Brown 1954	Nearco Lady Angela	1935 1944	4-r 14-c
		Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Natalma Bay 1957	Native Dancer Almahmoud	1950 1947	5-f 2-d
		Fairy Bridge Bay 1975	Bold Reason Bay 1968	Hail to Reason Lalun	1958 1952	4-n 19-b
		Fairy Bridge Bay 1975	Special Bay 1969	Forli Thong	1963 1964	3-b 5-h
	Kasora Brown 1993	Darshaan Brown 1981	Shirley Heights Bay 1975	Mill Reef Hardiemma	1968 1969	22-d 1-l
		Darshaan Brown 1981	Delsy Brown 1972	Abdos Kelty	1959 1965	1-e 13-c
		Kozana Brown 1982	Kris Chestnut 1976	Sharpen Up Doubly Sure	1969 1971	5-i 2-o
		Kozana Brown 1982	Koblenza Brown 1966	Hugh Lupus Kalimara	1952 1960	19> 1-n
Isle of Gibraltar Bay 2000	Danehill Bay 1986	Danzig Bay 1977	Northern Dancer Bay 1961	Nearctic Natalma	1954 1957	14-c 2-d
		Danzig Bay 1977	Pas de Nom Bay or brown 1968	Admiral's Voyage Petitioner	1959 1952	4-n 7-a
		Razyana Bay 1981	His Majesty Bay 1968	Ribot Flower Bowl	1952 1952	4-l 4-d
		Razyana Bay 1981	Spring Adieu Bay 1974	Buckpasser Natalma	1963 1957	1-s 2-d
	Push a Venture Bay 1994	Shirley Heights Bay 1975	Mill Reef Bay 1968	Never Bend Milan Mill	1960 1962	19-b 22-d
		Shirley Heights Bay 1975	Hardiemma Bay 1969	Hardicanute Grand Cross	1962 1952	3-j 1-l
		Push a Button Bay 1980	Bold Lad Bay 1964	Bold Ruler Barn Pride	1954 1957	8-d 2-e
		Push a Button Bay 1980	River Lady Bay 1963	Prince John Nile Lily	1953 1954	14-f 10-a

Ancestor duplications:

Northern Dancer

3m x 4m

Natalma

4m x 5m,5f

Shirley Heights

4m x 3f

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 22 Oct 2015 at 1:48pm

I think it's not pedigree Djebel its the ability to relax. Mongolian Khan has that. Preferment has that and they don't have as stout a pedigree as the above one. Red Cadeaux is the same. He has so much speed in his pedigree but he goes to sleep in races. I think Ed Dunlop knows how to train horses to do that. I seem to remember Mal Johnston saying he could turn Kingston Town on and off in his races. he could sprint three times and go to sleep inbetween. He probably wasn't a true stayer but that ability got him home over 3200m.

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Posted: 22 Oct 2015 at 4:07pm

Race 3 - 2:15PM add energy group-PRINCE OF WALES STAKES (1200 METRES)
Of $150,000.1st $96,000, 2nd $30,000, 3rd $13,500, 4th $6,000, 5th $3,000, 6th $1,500 Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Apprentices cannot claim. WestSpeed Bonus Field Limit: 30

No	Last 10	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Barrier	Weight
1	11523122x3	DAWN APPROACH	Vaughn Sigley	Takahide Ikenushi	3	58.5kg
2	53231406x0	ZESTER	Daniel Morton	Ms Jerry Noske (a)	4	58.5kg
3	2211280328	AKHEDASSET	Dion Luciani	Glenn Smith	5	58.5kg
4	x23111111x	DELICACY	Grant Williams	William Pike	1	56.5kg
5	4x4112x40x	MAGNIFISIO	Vaughn Sigley	Jason Brown	2	56.5kg

reductio ad absurdum

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Posted: 24 Oct 2015 at 8:42pm

That's two of the big three one to go

When we have a good one in the ranks they hold their own against the rest of the world

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Posted: 24 Oct 2015 at 8:49pm

I just love that Bernborough figures in Winx's pedigree. Doesn't her finish remind you of him.

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Posted: 24 Oct 2015 at 9:10pm

Well she certainly has a blistering finish

Reminds me of zenyatta

What a loss street cry is

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Posted: 24 Oct 2015 at 9:34pm

Didn't someone say the 1ld oaks should be downgraded ?

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Posted: 24 Oct 2015 at 9:38pm

People complained about all the Queensland races.

QLD Oaks winner has since won an Epsom and a Cox Plate

JJ Atkins Winner has won the Caulfield Guineas

Doomben 10k winner has won the Memsie

Straddy/Tiara winner ran 2nd to Chaut first up in the Manikato.

Not bad for a carnival everyone on here was savaging.

Even Pornichet who won the Doomben cup at least ran 4th in the Cox Plate.

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Posted: 24 Oct 2015 at 9:48pm

Yep, nothing wrong with sunshine .

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