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Why are Australian bred stayers slow? |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31290 |
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Posted: 01 Oct 2015 at 11:38am |
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1 Pedigree
I am going to rule out pedigree as a primary reason because there are enough Aus bred horses with impeccable staying pedigrees produced every season to get quality stayers, if pedigee was a guarantee of performance. 2 Training I am going to rule out training as a primary reason because Australian trainers often get good results with the foreign bred, pre-raced horses they buy. So it's got be something that goes on between the moment a horse is born to the moment it arrives in Australia as a mature horse that has had some racing in Europe. What is it?
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bradjm
Champion Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6175 |
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Probably pushed for speed too early , if they show speed they get thrown into unsuitable races
Don't have the grounding with long slow open country work like the UK stayers But probably the biggest factor is the UK broodmare band has a lot of quality staying blood, a lot different to ours where zabeel in a pedigree is considered stamina. |
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furious
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And yet Tlazolteotl we had Amelie's Star beat the Colin Stephens field quite well.
Bred in Australia by a great two and three year old in Testa Rossa (VRC Sires' Produce S/Vic Health Cup/Eat Well Live Well Cup/Futurity S/ Emirates S/Lightning S). He's out of a Sir Dapper mare. Sir Dapper (Golden Slipper/Spring Champion S etc) was a great two and three year old. He was by Vain (Golden slipper/Champagne S/Caulfield Guineas/Ascot Vale S/Craven A Stakes etc) a great two and three year old. Vain was speed on four legs. Yet he had stamina influences as do most of our fastest horses. Speed needs stamina and visa versa. Vain was out of a Orgoglio mare. Orgoglio got quite a few Oaks and Derby winners. Next dam was by Helios sire of the great Carbon Copy (AJC Derby, Cox Plate, Sydney Cup, AJC St Leger etc) and Beau Gem (VRC Derby, SA St Leger etc) etc. Then we see a name we all associate with stayers in Australia and New Zealand - Zabeel. He is the sire of Amelie's Star dam Zazita. Next dam is by Canny Lad who was a Golden Slipper winner and W S Cox Plate placed as a three year old. He also got some stayers ie Republic Lass and his sire Bletchingly (also speed on four legs) gave us our greatest all round performer in Kingston Town. Last but not least she is from the 13a female line. One of the greatest producing lines there is. In fact the second horse past the post Bohemian Lily (is decended from the 13a family of Juliet) is from the same family as So You Think and a full sister to Shamrocker (AJC Derby). Amelie's Star decends from Juliets 3/4 sister in blood Mendicant who was the dam of the English derby winner Beadsman. Juliet was sent to Australia and foaled Benvolio a winner of the AJC Derby, Charon, winner of the VRC Derby, AJC Derby, ALL_Aged S etc, Chrysolite (SA St Leger), Sylvia (VRC Oaks) and the Hook (AJC Doncaster H). So blood does tell. And we can breed stayers in Australia. 1/2 the time we just don't know it.
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subastral
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Due to many things, mainly tracks and space, we don't give the horses the grounding that Euro's do. Remember an interview with Luca Cumani and he mentioned the kilometres he would put into the horses legs as young horses, but none through fast, short-paced gallops that we give our horses. They go for multi kilometre walks and trots up hills etc. By the time they are getting close to racing, they just have the stamina ingrained into them that our trainers cant put in. Their system of racing horses at their optimum distance and none of this build-up distance routine is clearly better for creating decent stayers.
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subastral
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I will also say I don't give a flying f... where the horses come from, and I couldn't care less if 24 overseas horses ran in the Cup. A good horse is a good horse. Long may the best keep coming.
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Heavenly Glow
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I think its pedigree. We haven't really been able to replace Zabeel as that sire who produced staying types. Because a lot of the money is in 2/3 year old and sprinting races, we don't send our quality broodmares to staying type sires. |
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djebel
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BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE SPEED TRAINED OUT OF THEM.
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reductio ad absurdum
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niki
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Really? I hope that is the case furious 13a (Juliet) mare Joy Rising to Starcraft waiting for PTIF ... hope to see some staying potential .. |
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furious
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Good luck niki. Another one from the Juliet line is Alcopop. He wasn't too bad also at the staying game.
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Tlazolteotl
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Montjeu, Galileo, High Chap etc got scrubbers in Australia/NZ did they?
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Tlazolteotl
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And there must be hundreds of Montjeu, Galileo, High Chap etc mares in Australasia so the other theory I often read- mares not up to scratch- seems peculiar to me.
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Newtown Old Boy
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Not enough races > 2000m. And that includes country / provincial racing.
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deejays destiny
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I feel that Aussie Staying ranks are falling behind because of the money you can get if you have a good 2yo. Everyone wants to make as much money as they can as fast as they can. One thing I will always remember from an old trainer (now departed) when I expressed interest in becoming a trainer myself (hopefully within the next 5 to 10 years), patience son, patience is the key.
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bradjm
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How many of them are out of mares carrying classic UK blood |
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Banjo
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Less and less horses are racing at 2. But if that is still not transcending into more stayers it proves it is all about training methods. Aussie trainers don't have the facilities or time to train staying |
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Bonfield
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It's a really good question. The obvious answer is that we breed for speed and value Golden Slipper winners as sires rather than Derby winners. However I think it goes deeper than this. Before we had all the imports many of our staying races were won by NZ bred horses. I don't think this was just due to NZ staying sires like Sir Tristram, Zabeel, Zamazaan etc. It may not sound logical, but I can't help think there is something in the grass, soil or terrain in NZ which helps them produce stayers better than in Australia.
Whatever the reason, it is a fact Australia does not tend to produce high quality stayers. And I don't think it's just pedigrees, although no doubt that is part of it.
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furious
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Cummings was a very patient trainer he also trained winners of the Golden Slipper. Patience is the answer but they also can and do run as two year olds.
The great stayers of our past were often the top two year old also. Same as overseas. We are not improving the breed by not running them. We may be weakening the breed.
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Afros
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My guess is that any horse that shows speed is ear-marked as a sprinter or miler, and if they show no speed then they are called stayers. The horses that come through with speed also mixed in with stamina do not get the chance to prove themselves as stayers because they are kept to shorter distances due to their speediness...
It seems to me that in Europe the ones with good speed find their way to the top and then their level of stamina determines if they are a sprinter, miler, middle distance or staying horse. Unlike here where the mindset seems to be to try make them a sprinter and go at longer distance races if that doesn't work (unless they're a Zabeel/High Chap etc). I guess other factors such as conditioning as young horses come into it also. Can only imagine what would have happened if Treve had been born in Australia, but my guess is 2yo triple crown campaign, Flight/Thousand Guineas campaign with a shot at the VRC Oaks if going well enough, then a 3yo autumn on either an ATC Oaks or the Doncaster campaign depending on what the horse tells us she wants to do, and if she picked up some good black type in there head to stud, if not punch on for her 4yo season... |
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Tlazolteotl
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My error- I should have put Australasian in the title- NZ bred stayers are doing no better than Aus bred.
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whitt0
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Going to change guys. We have a much greater bench of stamina in the stallion ranks over the last couple of years.
Domestically wit the likes of Dalakhani, Fiorente, Americain and all the kiwis as well like Reliable Man, Savabeel etc.
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Ticino
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Hello,
my opinions from the far and distant Germany. Another reason, why Stayers in AUS somewhat out of fashion, there are obviuosly not enough valuable races for this kind of breed, except the Cox Plate, Melbourne Cup just to name a few. Breeders habe no intention for breeding long distance horses. In my much smaller Country we have only a population of ca. 1500 Thoroughbred broodmares. So the number of races is much lower, we only have 44 Group races, seven of them are Group I, all over distances ranging from 2000 - 2400 meters. None of our Sprint- or Mileraces got the highest Rrting. Only 2 of our juvenile races have a Group 3 level. Our Group Racing System still shows the preference for the 1 1/2 mile horse. Only a small percentage of your "homebreds" started their racing career as 2 year olds, because they are not so precocious. Most horses start racing when they are 3 year olds (NH), so we have lots of maiden races over longer distances. The best stayer is the "Stayer with Speed", a thoroughbred who runs over along distant, but can "sprint" the last 300- 400 meters, not a plodder winning by sheer Stamina. I remember Lando, who won the "Japan Cup" (won German Derby) ran in training 1000 meters under a Minute. Now to the breeding aspect. It is very likely, breeding with stayers with the more sprint oriented damlines in AUS, the first generation offspring is not very succesful on the racetrack. So you need some of "Stamina" in Thoroughbredbreeding, too. The 2 - 3 Generation offspring can show more ability on longer distances. Hopefully I could offer some useful informations. regards, Ticino |
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Speediskey
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That seems like absolute crap to me? There is far, far more money in big staying races. Golden Slipper/TJ Smith are the only big sprint races.
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Jamal
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Would be interesting to find out how many Australian bred stayers have won the Melbourne Cup in the past 30 years..
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Jamal
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Melbourne Cup Winners - Since 1970
**Australian Bred Winners in Bold** 1970: Baghdad Note (NZ) 1971: Silver Knight (NZ) 1972: Piping Lane (AUS) 1973: Gala Supreme (AUS) 1974: Think Big (NZ) 1975: Think Big (NZ) 1976: Van Der Hum (NZ) 1977: Gold And Black (NZ) 1978: Arwon (NZ) 1979: Hyperno (AUS) 1980: Beldale Ball (USA) 1981: Just A Dash (AUS) 1982: Gurner's Lane (NZ) 1983: Kiwi (NZ) 1984: Black Knight (AUS) 1985: What A Nuisance (NZ) 1986: At Talaq (USA) 1987: Kensei (NZ) 1988: Empire Rose (NZ) 1989: Tawrrific (NZ) 1990: Kingston Rule (USA) 1991: Let's Elope (NZ) 1992: Subzero (AUS) 1993: Vintage Crop (IRE) 1994: Jeune (GB) 1995: Doriemus (NZ) 1996: Saintly (AUS) 1997: Might And Power (NZ) 1998: Jezabeel (NZ) 1999: Rogan Josh (AUS) 2000: Brew (NZ) 2001: Ethereal (NZ) 2002: Media Puzzle (USA) 2003: Makybe Diva (GB) 2004: Makybe Diva (GB) 2005: Makybe Diva (GB) 2006: Delta Blues (JPN) 2007: Efficient (NZ) 2008: Viewed (AUS) 2009: Shocking (AUS) 2010: Americain (USA) 2011: Dunaden (FRA) 2012: Green Moon (IRE) 2013: Fiorente (IRE) 2014: Protectionist (GER) |
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Rosscoe
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[QUOTE=Tlazolteotl]1 Pedigree
I am going to rule out pedigree as a primary reason because there are enough Aus bred horses with impeccable staying pedigrees produced every season to get quality stayers, if pedigee was a guarantee of performance. 2 Training I am going to rule out training as a primary reason because Australian trainers often get good results with the foreign bred, pre-raced horses they buy. So it's got be something that goes on between the moment a horse is born to the moment it arrives in Australia as a mature horse that has had some racing in Europe. What is it? [/QUOTE)1.Not so sure you can rule out pedigree. Australia's Stamina sources are very different to others being offered o/s. Have a look at Japan - "Deep Impact" as an example. We certainly don't have access to him in OZ. 2. The Foreign bred horses that come to OZ, are mostly proven with ability & scope to improve under our conditions. They are selected & scrutinised by those with a keen eye and are bought to develop under our racing programs. I believe in order for us to challenge the major titles for stamina racing here, we need to have access to the very bloodlines offering this. One was noted above but there are plenty of others. We also need to take the focus away from 2/3 yr old races where the money is currently and change our programming to favour horses with stamina capabilities. More prize money and incentives are required for this to happen. At present this does not exist! Patience, bloodlines, patience, bloodlines are the key ingredients + being able to train a stayer adequately ... Training stayers is complex and our techniques are so different to those used o/s. Bart was the "King" here. I'm hoping he shared a few of his thoughts with others so that we can be a force again one day with our stayers. At present that is very unlikely with the way our industry is run! We need to take away the emphasis from sprints to more stamina type races. Our stallions as a whole here are built on speed and focused mainly to inject an early return ($$$) into the trainer/owner's arm!! I am quite excited with So You Think here. Hopefully his progeny will be given time to step up to the stamina races on offer. But more needs to be done with improvements for incentives & programming to make this happen ... |
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Current Stable - Soul Star & Adivinar + Lady Vega
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Gay3
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This article probably bears out Barts' training of potential stayers from an early age i.e. he taught them to settle/relax 1st & foremost.
Distance preferences – more to do with mentality than physiologyWhile analysing the performance of
the Race Modlr computer model in different types of races, something
that became apparent was the fact that the model’s analysis of horse’s
distance preferences was adding virtually nothing to the accuracy of its
race predictions. This raised the question, why? That doyen of thoroughbred breeding Federico Tessio staunchly believed that good horses were fast horses and that a fast horse would beat a slow one whatever the distance. Our mathematical model of how horses fatigue in relation to their ability, based on treadmill research into their physiology, largely supports this. It suggests that Frankel was physiologically capable of winning a July Cup over 6f or one of the Cup races over 2m. Race Modlr’s computerised handicap rated Frankel a 145 over 1m and throwing that into the aforementioned mathematical model suggests he’d have been a high 120’s sprinter or stayer. It infers that distance is much less of a factor in determining the outcome of races than pundits frequently make out. The reason for this is likely to be that the range of distances over which horses race is actually very compact when compared with humans. In human terms a sprint is 100m to 200m, a middle-distance race 800m to 1500m and a staying race 5000m up to 26 miles. Physiologically these require very different body compositions, sprinting making use almost entirely of fast twitch muscle and anaerobic respiration (energy production without oxygen), staying using lots of slow twitch muscle and being almost entirely aerobic (energy production requiring oxygen). If we compare how slow humans go at the shorter end of middle-distance races i.e. 800m with how fast they go in sprints and compare that with how fast a horse can run and how fast it actually runs over the various race distances horses contest, we quickly see that physiologically the extremes of horse race distance are not that different. We know a human flat-out can manage 100m in 9.5s. The average speed for the 400m world record is 16% slower than at 100m and at 800m 32% slower. Plotting this graphically, we get a curve looking like this: We also know that a racehorse flat-out could manage a furlong in about 10s. The average speed over 5f is 15% slower than this, but at 8f it is only 22% slower, at 12f only 25% slower and at 2m only 29% slower. If we use the equation that defines the curve seen on the chart to work out what that means those race distances equate to in human terms we find the following: 5f = 300m 8f = 415m 12f = 476m 16f = 560m Even the 3m 2f Cheltenham Gold Cup is only roughly equivalent to a human 1500m race, albeit a steeple chase. Excluding Usain Bolt, who is something of a freak, were there a 300m world championship for humans then the 200m champion would probably be favourite. Over any of the other distances mentioned, 415m, 476m or 560m then the world 400m champion would probably be favourite. What this suggests is that in reality only two horse types are required on the flat, sprinters and non-sprinters because apart from 5f and 6f the physiological requirement of all the other distances is much the same. The ability of a 7f horse to stay 1m 4f is more about its mental make-up than its physiological make-up, since provided it settles then physiologically it will stay. Interestingly, what this confirms is that by accident or design the evolution of the the English Triple Crown which tested a horse’s speed over 1m and its ability to settle over 1m6f was in all likelihood a truer test of the racehorse than the current focus on racing between 1m and 1m2f. Today’s approach simply repetitively testing the same thing. Our approach to predicting distance preferences in Race Modlr has revolved around retro-engineering the work conducted on the equinome project where horses have been identified with three genetic variations for distance preference. The equinome project confirmed the presence of these genotypes by looking at the best distance of horses exhibiting them. Conversely, since we know the best distance of each horse from our computerised ratings we can predict the probability of each sire and dam being of a given genotype, and consequently the probability of their progeny being of a given genotype. We can then predict the probability of any given distance being a horse’s best. Testing the accuracy of these predictions against all horses aged three-years-old and upwards that have raced on the flat in 2015, we found a strong relationship between the average observed best distance of a group of horses and their predicted best distance. Unfortunately, accurately predicting individual horses to within one furlong seems almost impossible with a success rate of about one in six. What holds much more statistical validity is separating the sprinters from the non-sprinters. Of horses with a predicted best distance of less than 1m, 70% produced their best form over 7f or less. The one horse prominent in the betting for next year’s 2,000 Guineas this pertains to is of course Shalaa. At the other end of this research is Gleneagles. Our model actually considers him to have more potential to stay than Jack Hobbs or the 2-y-o Deauville, second favourite for next year’s Derby. Given that Gleneagles always seem to settle beautifully, you have to wonder what might have been over further. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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niki
Champion Joined: 27 Jul 2015 Status: Offline Points: 448 |
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Excuse me for the novice question > would Glass Harmonium be regarded as a good source of stamina, to breed a stayer? |
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whitt0
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2014 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 10911 |
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Yes niki - nice dose of Grey Sovereign
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25066 |
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And Nikki Grey sovereign has Juliet blood through the sire of her dam. His sire Achtoi is out of an Australian bred mare Achray by Martini Henry a grandson of Juliet.
Might also give mention to Complacent and Hauraki the AUS two that just fought out the Craven Plate. The winner from the Sadler's Wells line out of a Quest for Fame (English Derby) mare from a Kaoru Star mare with the next dam by Lunchtime. So plenty of sprinting blood also there. He decends from the dam of Ajax same as Golden Slipper winner Crystal Lily. Hauraki is from the Sir Tristram/Zabeel sireline (by Reset who was out of a mare by Zeditave) from a Dehere mare. This is the same family (different branch to Eight Carat) as Octagonal and co. So even speed in the female line also. Further back you find the flying filly Mumtaz Mahal. So once again the Australian middle distance stayers may not be in the Metropolitan but have killed the rest of those imports today.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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What do our Oaks winners do at stud ?
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reductio ad absurdum
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