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Amelie's Star |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Settled 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and runs 11th. Settled 4th in the Bart Cummings and runs 1st. Two years ago when she burst on the scene with four straight wins, she settled 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 6th (was 2nd at the 400m). On Saturday Williams got her across in a strike of lightning and she was back underneath him with the flick of a switch. I'm happy for everyone to make all sorts of excuses for all of them. The race was a mess, the track was a mess, and it was a lottery as I expected going into the day. But I simply can't see why Amelie's Star rates a special mention as hard luck stories go considering the facts above. She simply does not settle off the speed when she gets up to a trip.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Was $41 when I backed him, nearly $29 after the ridiculous deductions. Cost me enough to buy half yer house.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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Have a look at the times they ran the first 800m - more than 10+ lengths above avg & for a horse that never gets fired out of the gates. Race was over at that stage. She settled fwd in those Syd races as the tempo was soft & she strolled fwd in a different class of race. Hard luck - I am nots sure. In hindsight - very poor tactics. Was her run good - yes it was massive in those circumstances. Was Lord Fandango & Single Gaze run big - they were even bigger! Can she win the Cup - yes. Will she - going to be huge to get back up after that gut buster (same goes for Single Gaze)
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Is that based on the times the leader ran though, Gov? Just hard for me to forgive too hard a horse who hugged the rail in the box seat the trip on Saturday, but like I said, I throw the form in the garbage and still rate her highly. Just interested why there is a push that she in particular was a hard luck story as my initial feeling was not too much went wrong for her. I could well be wrong.
Hopefully she's back up and feeling good for the Cup as she's a great stayer and deserves her spot more than many on a path to the race.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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Not sure she was unlucky but I guess if you base it on the ride & track bias - many were unlucky.
Think I want to be on the MV Cup winner - Big Duke over her based on Sat
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Always good to debate :- Sharpens up the form study. LIKE 30 horses placed at Caulfield Saturday ( 10 races ) 18 came from inside barrier 8 12 came from outside. 5 of the 8 winners drew on the outside half of their fields. Very likely the M.Cup winner was in the C.C. Reference to Amelies Star's run isn't tipping her , It's warning = don't write her off ( she is big odds now) Memories of Viewed , Well back in C>C and last in the McKinnon. BTW .. Craig Williams sacked off A.S.In Cup. |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31303 |
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- Williams is not the regular rider. AS was only a pickup ride for him after the Japanese horse broke down. - He was not sacked from AS. He rode it to order. - He would not ride AM in the melbourne Cup if he was asked to because it has no hope of winning and Williams is a good judge- he'll be looking for a winning chance and will probably get one. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Weir interview was very critical of rider of both Humidor & Amelie's Star. . You are a game man saying A.S can't win . Did you say the same of Boom Time. POP , Viewed to name a few . I didn't back any of them BTW> lol . But they do arrive too often. I'm a Marmelo fan ATM but will dutch again , as usual. Good Luck Tiaz. |
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21703 |
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Your not wrong imo sunline, AS in the box seat on the turn out of the straight, from then on done no work till jockey started to stoke her up from the 700, she got along side Singlegaze on the corner but was a spent force after that, Singlegaze all heart far better run having to drag the field up, melham gave JV a sore back on top of his illjudged ride the. previous week in the CG imo. |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31303 |
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More chance of a cow jumping over the moon than a Flying Spur winning a Melbourne Cup. |
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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I don't know what the last Cup winner with a sprint pedigree was. But they have won in the past. Djebel might tell us. Quite a few have placed, that were high class horses, but not stayers. Gunsynd and Aquanita come to mind.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Many claim the Mare is the one ? = Like Humans. I wouldn't have a clue but I do remember the MOB said Sky High, Skyline ( by Star Kingdom ) wouldn't stay .. But they did win to 2400m me thinks. |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Amelie's Star isn't by Flying Spur. Its by Testa Rossa out of a Zabeel mare . has won 3 2400- 2500m. Has failed 4 from 4 at Caulfield . Flemington 2500 winner . |
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TOLEDO
Champion Joined: 17 Jul 2009 Status: Offline Points: 604 |
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Subzero was a sprinters pedigree
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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Kala Dancer ? More a staying breed from memory, but of course the dam's side is equally, or more important. It is hard to find a winner in the last 30 years with a sprints sire. Testa Rossa is a sprinters sire. |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31303 |
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That's 2 factual errors I've made this week and you know what a stickler I am- Vega Magic- Hayes not Weir, the other one. Amelie's Star's pedigree gives her a slight hope of running the 3200m out strong, unlike anything on the Danehill sire line- the other two Aussies in the race. Unfortunately she is not good enough. |
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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To be fair.. it's out of Zabeel also.. granted you would prefer sure and grandsire as stayers in top line races.. but boom time was the same (sire short distance and grand sire long distance)
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brave_ponies
Champion Joined: 06 Sep 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 3244 |
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She is also physically a Zabeel type more than a Testa Rossa?
Interesting discussion anyway... |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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The dam line stays. She has a very good half sister and stablemate who flies over ground.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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Exactly I was happy as hell when he got over so cheaply. The problems arose after that when he panicked. Most of these jockeys nowdays ride to a formula and have no feel for a race. Williams a classic example |
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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Agree totally with above. She was given every chance. I was on her and happy with the early move. As stated, she's shown in the past she can take a position on the pace.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31303 |
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Either someone is lying or there is a remarkable lack of communication going on- Williams said he rode to the owners' instructions- Weir said it wasn't ridden the way he wanted and he's not happy. |
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11716 |
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In the Bart Cummings she drew 2. Wasn't fast out but found the rail and held her spot. In the CC she drew 17 and was fired out of the gates and bustled forward. Completely different scenario. Some horses can be ridden that way and some can't.
I actually wasn't critical of Williams (unless he was riding against instructions) because I thought with a light weight and the way the track was playing is was a reasonable thing to try. And be couldn't have predicted such a breakneck tempo. But it backfired and one thing's for sure, they won't be trying it again.
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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Bonfield - you know data & would know that previous on pace efforts were done off a slow lead tempo. The lead pace even before Lloyds pacemaker took off was slick & she was ridden outside of her comfort zone. Dont lose the faith - she has pulled up well & will beat Almandin home. Now you have an even better price.
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45321 |
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The only recent time Amelie's Star has sat near the pace was in the Bart Cummings, and they went so slow early I could've ridden my pushbike into 3rd place on the rails.
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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Excellent point. Jameka went fwd last year and raced on pace. Have a guess in lengths how much quicker AStar went than Jameka in that first 200m (2400m to 2200m) |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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4 lengths my guess they ran 1.1 faster than Jameka overall = It wasn't at the start the damage was done , It was the panic that saw him set her alight long before the turn. She's OK value at the price on offer now. |
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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I have it at about 8 lengths quicker based off splits from racing.com.
Craig did go early as I understand he knew the leader was going to come back into her lap & Kathy was outside her & he needed to get clear. Still cannot get over how big a run by Single Gaze.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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The leader went out about 8 L to Single Gaze, who was 4L in front of AS approaching the 800. Humidor outside her. . Williams took off and went up , inside of Single Gaze approaching the turn in a lightning move , only dropped out from the 150m. Was out of petrol. Will be rock hard fit for 7th of Nov. |
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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"" It was the panic that saw him set her alight long before the turn."" Thats the point lost on most seeing what is written. Going forward.....smart move taking the sit.....a smart move taking off so far from home chasing a donkey that was going to collapse was ......dumb |
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