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Amelie's Star

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2017 at 9:19pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Single Gaze almost always sits right on the pace, as she did in the Cup.

Amelie's Star doesn't usually do so, preferring to be given time and settle off them, as she didn't in the Cup.

Simple as.



Settled 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and runs 11th. Settled 4th in the Bart Cummings and runs 1st. Two years ago when she burst on the scene with four straight wins, she settled 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 6th (was 2nd at the 400m).

On Saturday Williams got her across in a strike of lightning and she was back underneath him with the flick of a switch.

I'm happy for everyone to make all sorts of excuses for all of them. The race was a mess, the track was a mess, and it was a lottery as I expected going into the day.

But I simply can't see why Amelie's Star rates a special mention as hard luck stories go considering the facts above. She simply does not settle off the speed when she gets up to a trip.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2017 at 9:21pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

 

BTW Sunline. My heart bled for you when the $17 pop got nutted at Rd.

Was $41 when I backed him, nearly $29 after the ridiculous deductions. Cost me enough to buy half yer house.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sir Gov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2017 at 9:39pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Single Gaze almost always sits right on the pace, as she did in the Cup.

Amelie's Star doesn't usually do so, preferring to be given time and settle off them, as she didn't in the Cup.

Simple as.



Settled 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and runs 11th. Settled 4th in the Bart Cummings and runs 1st. Two years ago when she burst on the scene with four straight wins, she settled 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 6th (was 2nd at the 400m).

On Saturday Williams got her across in a strike of lightning and she was back underneath him with the flick of a switch.

I'm happy for everyone to make all sorts of excuses for all of them. The race was a mess, the track was a mess, and it was a lottery as I expected going into the day.

But I simply can't see why Amelie's Star rates a special mention as hard luck stories go considering the facts above. She simply does not settle off the speed when she gets up to a trip.

Have a look at the times they ran the first 800m - more than 10+ lengths above avg & for a horse that never gets fired out of the gates.  Race was over at that stage.

She settled fwd in those Syd races as the tempo was soft & she strolled fwd in a different class of race.

Hard luck - I am nots sure. In hindsight - very poor tactics.

Was her run good - yes it was massive in those circumstances.  Was Lord Fandango & Single Gaze run big - they were even bigger!

Can she win the Cup - yes.  Will she - going to be huge to get back up after that gut buster (same goes for Single Gaze)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2017 at 9:54pm
Is that based on the times the leader ran though, Gov? Just hard for me to forgive too hard a horse who hugged the rail in the box seat the trip on Saturday, but like I said, I throw the form in the garbage and still rate her highly. Just interested why there is a push that she in particular was a hard luck story as my initial feeling was not too much went wrong for her. I could well be wrong.

Hopefully she's back up and feeling good for the Cup as she's a great stayer and deserves her spot more than many on a path to the race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sir Gov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2017 at 11:08pm
Not sure she was unlucky but I guess if you base it on the ride & track bias - many were unlucky.

Think I want to be on the MV Cup winner - Big Duke over her based on Sat
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2017 at 11:33pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Is that based on the times the leader ran though, Gov? Just hard for me to forgive too hard a horse who hugged the rail in the box seat the trip on Saturday, but like I said, I throw the form in the garbage and still rate her highly. Just interested why there is a push that she in particular was a hard luck story as my initial feeling was not too much went wrong for her. I could well be wrong.

Hopefully she's back up and feeling good for the Cup as she's a great stayer and deserves her spot more than many on a path to the race.


Always good to debate :-   Sharpens up the form study. LIKE 30 horses placed at Caulfield Saturday ( 10 races ) 18 came from inside barrier 8
12 came from outside.
5 of the 8 winners drew on the outside half of their fields.

Very likely the M.Cup winner was in the C.C.   Reference to Amelies Star's run isn't tipping her , It's warning = don't write her off
( she is big odds now)      Memories of Viewed , Well back in C>C and last in the McKinnon.   
BTW .. Craig Williams sacked off A.S.In Cup.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 8:24am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Is that based on the times the leader ran though, Gov? Just hard for me to forgive too hard a horse who hugged the rail in the box seat the trip on Saturday, but like I said, I throw the form in the garbage and still rate her highly. Just interested why there is a push that she in particular was a hard luck story as my initial feeling was not too much went wrong for her. I could well be wrong.

Hopefully she's back up and feeling good for the Cup as she's a great stayer and deserves her spot more than many on a path to the race.


Always good to debate :-   Sharpens up the form study. LIKE 30 horses placed at Caulfield Saturday ( 10 races ) 18 came from inside barrier 8
12 came from outside.
5 of the 8 winners drew on the outside half of their fields.

Very likely the M.Cup winner was in the C.C.   Reference to Amelies Star's run isn't tipping her , It's warning = don't write her off
( she is big odds now)      Memories of Viewed , Well back in C>C and last in the McKinnon.   
BTW .. Craig Williams sacked off A.S.In Cup.



- Williams is not the regular rider. AS was only a pickup ride for him after the Japanese horse broke down.

- He was not sacked from AS.LOL He rode it to order.

- He would not ride AM in the melbourne Cup if he was asked to because it has no hope of winning and Williams is a good judge- he'll be looking for a winning chance and will probably get one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 12:52pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Is that based on the times the leader ran though, Gov? Just hard for me to forgive too hard a horse who hugged the rail in the box seat the trip on Saturday, but like I said, I throw the form in the garbage and still rate her highly. Just interested why there is a push that she in particular was a hard luck story as my initial feeling was not too much went wrong for her. I could well be wrong.

Hopefully she's back up and feeling good for the Cup as she's a great stayer and deserves her spot more than many on a path to the race.


Always good to debate :-   Sharpens up the form study. LIKE 30 horses placed at Caulfield Saturday ( 10 races ) 18 came from inside barrier 8
12 came from outside.
5 of the 8 winners drew on the outside half of their fields.

Very likely the M.Cup winner was in the C.C.   Reference to Amelies Star's run isn't tipping her , It's warning = don't write her off
( she is big odds now)      Memories of Viewed , Well back in C>C and last in the McKinnon.   
BTW .. Craig Williams sacked off A.S.In Cup.



- Williams is not the regular rider. AS was only a pickup ride for him after the Japanese horse broke down.

- He was not sacked from AS.LOL He rode it to order.

- He would not ride AM in the melbourne Cup if he was asked to because it has no hope of winning and Williams is a good judge- he'll be looking for a winning chance and will probably get one.


Weir interview was very critical of rider of both Humidor & Amelie's Star.        . You are a game man saying A.S can't win .   Did you say the same of Boom Time. POP , Viewed to name a few .   I didn't back any of them BTW>   lol   .   But they do arrive too often.
I'm a Marmelo fan ATM but will dutch again , as usual.
Good Luck Tiaz.    
   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 1:51pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Is that based on the times the leader ran though, Gov? Just hard for me to forgive too hard a horse who hugged the rail in the box seat the trip on Saturday, but like I said, I throw the form in the garbage and still rate her highly. Just interested why there is a push that she in particular was a hard luck story as my initial feeling was not too much went wrong for her. I could well be wrong.

Hopefully she's back up and feeling good for the Cup as she's a great stayer and deserves her spot more than many on a path to the race.


Your not wrong imo sunline, AS in the box seat on the turn out of the straight, from then on done no work till jockey started to stoke her up from the 700, she got along side Singlegaze on the corner but was a spent force after that, Singlegaze all heart far better run having to drag the field up, melham gave JV a sore back on top of his illjudged ride the. previous week in the CG imo.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 1:54pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Is that based on the times the leader ran though, Gov? Just hard for me to forgive too hard a horse who hugged the rail in the box seat the trip on Saturday, but like I said, I throw the form in the garbage and still rate her highly. Just interested why there is a push that she in particular was a hard luck story as my initial feeling was not too much went wrong for her. I could well be wrong.

Hopefully she's back up and feeling good for the Cup as she's a great stayer and deserves her spot more than many on a path to the race.


Always good to debate :-   Sharpens up the form study. LIKE 30 horses placed at Caulfield Saturday ( 10 races ) 18 came from inside barrier 8
12 came from outside.
5 of the 8 winners drew on the outside half of their fields.

Very likely the M.Cup winner was in the C.C.   Reference to Amelies Star's run isn't tipping her , It's warning = don't write her off
( she is big odds now)      Memories of Viewed , Well back in C>C and last in the McKinnon.   
BTW .. Craig Williams sacked off A.S.In Cup.



- Williams is not the regular rider. AS was only a pickup ride for him after the Japanese horse broke down.

- He was not sacked from AS.LOL He rode it to order.

- He would not ride AM in the melbourne Cup if he was asked to because it has no hope of winning and Williams is a good judge- he'll be looking for a winning chance and will probably get one.


Weir interview was very critical of rider of both Humidor & Amelie's Star.        . You are a game man saying A.S can't win .   Did you say the same of Boom Time. POP , Viewed to name a few .   I didn't back any of them BTW>   lol   .   But they do arrive too often.
I'm a Marmelo fan ATM but will dutch again , as usual.
Good Luck Tiaz.    
   


More chance of a cow jumping over the moon than  a Flying Spur winning a Melbourne Cup.Pig
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 2:00pm
I don't know what the last Cup winner with a sprint pedigree was. But they have won in the past. Djebel might tell us. Quite a few have placed, that were high class horses, but not stayers. Gunsynd and Aquanita come to mind.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 2:41pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

I don't know what the last Cup winner with a sprint pedigree was. But they have won in the past. Djebel might tell us. Quite a few have placed, that were high class horses, but not stayers. Gunsynd and Aquanita come to mind.


Many claim the Mare is the one ? =    Like Humans.

I wouldn't have a clue but I do remember the MOB said Sky High, Skyline ( by Star Kingdom ) wouldn't stay ..      But they did win to 2400m me thinks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 4:38pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

I don't know what the last Cup winner with a sprint pedigree was. But they have won in the past. Djebel might tell us. Quite a few have placed, that were high class horses, but not stayers. Gunsynd and Aquanita come to mind.


Amelie's Star isn't by Flying Spur. Its by Testa Rossa out of a Zabeel mare . has won 3 2400- 2500m.

Has failed 4 from 4 at Caulfield .   Flemington 2500 winner .

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TOLEDO Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 5:14pm
Subzero was a sprinters pedigree
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 5:39pm
Originally posted by TOLEDO TOLEDO wrote:

Subzero was a sprinters pedigree

Kala Dancer ? More a staying breed from memory, but of course the dam's side is equally, or more important. It is hard to find a winner in the last 30 years with a sprints sire. Testa Rossa is a sprinters sire.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 6:17pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

I don't know what the last Cup winner with a sprint pedigree was. But they have won in the past. Djebel might tell us. Quite a few have placed, that were high class horses, but not stayers. Gunsynd and Aquanita come to mind.


Amelie's Star isn't by Flying Spur. Its by Testa Rossa out of a Zabeel mare . has won 3 2400- 2500m.

Has failed 4 from 4 at Caulfield .   Flemington 2500 winner .



That's 2 factual errors I've made this week and you know what a stickler I amTongue- Vega Magic- Hayes not Weir, the other one.

Amelie's Star's pedigree gives her a slight hope of running the 3200m out strong, unlike anything on the Danehill sire line- the other two Aussies in the race. Unfortunately she is not good enough.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Breeding Above All Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 9:00pm
To be fair.. it's out of Zabeel also.. granted you would prefer sure and grandsire as stayers in top line races.. but boom time was the same (sire short distance and grand sire long distance)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote brave_ponies Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 9:23pm
She is also physically a Zabeel type more than a Testa Rossa?

Interesting discussion anyway...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2017 at 9:40pm
The dam line stays. She has a very good half sister and stablemate who flies over ground.
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Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Single Gaze almost always sits right on the pace, as she did in the Cup.

Amelie's Star doesn't usually do so, preferring to be given time and settle off them, as she didn't in the Cup.

Simple as.



Settled 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and runs 11th. Settled 4th in the Bart Cummings and runs 1st. Two years ago when she burst on the scene with four straight wins, she settled 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 6th (was 2nd at the 400m).

On Saturday Williams got her across in a strike of lightning and she was back underneath him with the flick of a switch.

I'm happy for everyone to make all sorts of excuses for all of them. The race was a mess, the track was a mess, and it was a lottery as I expected going into the day.

But I simply can't see why Amelie's Star rates a special mention as hard luck stories go considering the facts above. She simply does not settle off the speed when she gets up to a trip.



Exactly

I was happy as hell when he got over so cheaply. The problems arose after that when he panicked. Most of these jockeys nowdays ride to a formula and have no feel for a race.
Williams a classic example
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Agree totally with above. She was given every chance. I was on her and happy with the early move. As stated, she's shown in the past she can take a position on the pace.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2017 at 8:55am
Originally posted by Bonfield Bonfield wrote:

Agree totally with above. She was given every chance. I was on her and happy with the early move. As stated, she's shown in the past she can take a position on the pace.


Either someone is lying or there is a remarkable lack of communication going on- Williams said he rode to the owners' instructions- Weir said it wasn't ridden the way he wanted and he's not happy.Confused
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In the Bart Cummings she drew 2. Wasn't fast out but found the rail and held her spot. In the CC she drew 17 and was fired out of the gates and bustled forward. Completely different scenario. Some horses can be ridden that way and some can't.

I actually wasn't critical of Williams (unless he was riding against instructions) because I thought with a light weight and the way the track was playing is was a reasonable thing to try. And be couldn't have predicted such a breakneck tempo. But it backfired and one thing's for sure, they won't be trying it again.
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Originally posted by Bonfield Bonfield wrote:

Agree totally with above. She was given every chance. I was on her and happy with the early move. As stated, she's shown in the past she can take a position on the pace.

Bonfield - you know data & would know that previous on pace efforts were done off a slow lead tempo.

The lead pace even before Lloyds pacemaker took off was slick & she was ridden outside of her comfort zone.  

Dont lose the faith - she  has pulled up well & will beat Almandin home.  

Now you have an even better price. 
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The only recent time Amelie's Star has sat near the pace was in the Bart Cummings, and they went so slow early I could've ridden my pushbike into 3rd place on the rails.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sir Gov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2017 at 10:05am
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

The only recent time Amelie's Star has sat near the pace was in the Bart Cummings, and they went so slow early I could've ridden my pushbike into 3rd place on the rails.


Excellent point.

Jameka went fwd last year and raced on pace. Have a guess in lengths how much quicker AStar went than Jameka in that first 200m (2400m to 2200m)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2017 at 10:21am
Originally posted by Sir Gov Sir Gov wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

The only recent time Amelie's Star has sat near the pace was in the Bart Cummings, and they went so slow early I could've ridden my pushbike into 3rd place on the rails.


Excellent point.

Jameka went fwd last year and raced on pace. Have a guess in lengths how much quicker AStar went than Jameka in that first 200m (2400m to 2200m)


4 lengths my guess they ran 1.1 faster than Jameka overall =
It wasn't at the start the damage was done ,     It was the panic that saw him set her alight long before the turn.
   She's OK value at the price on offer now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sir Gov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2017 at 10:32am
I have it at about 8 lengths quicker based off splits from racing.com.

Craig did go early as I understand he knew the leader was going to come back into her lap & Kathy was outside her & he needed to get clear.

Still cannot get over how big a run by Single Gaze. 
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Originally posted by Sir Gov Sir Gov wrote:

I have it at about 8 lengths quicker based off splits from racing.com.

Craig did go early as I understand he knew the leader was going to come back into her lap & Kathy was outside her & he needed to get clear.

Still cannot get over how big a run by Single Gaze. 


The leader went out about 8 L to Single Gaze, who was 4L in front of AS approaching the 800. Humidor outside her.    . Williams took off and went up , inside of Single Gaze approaching the turn in a lightning move ,   only dropped out from the 150m.    Was out of petrol.
Will be rock hard fit for 7th of Nov.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Oct 2017 at 8:37am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Sir Gov Sir Gov wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

The only recent time Amelie's Star has sat near the pace was in the Bart Cummings, and they went so slow early I could've ridden my pushbike into 3rd place on the rails.


Excellent point.

Jameka went fwd last year and raced on pace. Have a guess in lengths how much quicker AStar went than Jameka in that first 200m (2400m to 2200m)


4 lengths my guess they ran 1.1 faster than Jameka overall =
It wasn't at the start the damage was done ,     It was the panic that saw him set her alight long before the turn.
   She's OK value at the price on offer now.


"" It was the panic that saw him set her alight long before the turn.""

Thats the point lost on most seeing what is written.

Going forward.....smart move
taking the sit.....a smart move
taking off so far from home chasing a donkey that was going to collapse was ......dumb
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