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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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Don't bother whitt0 - she can't stay, and doesn't have G1 class ...wtf?
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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marscay
Champion Joined: 20 May 2011 Status: Offline Points: 5342 |
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Her racing style of dropping out will hurt her in the better races.... she can get away with it against her own age.
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SYT
Champion Joined: 10 Oct 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8337 |
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Good call |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Reminds me of Lucia Valentina - in stature, racing pattern and acceleration. She can hopefully make the open WFA grade like her too and have a nice 4yo year. The turn of foot is the key. If she retains that, she makes the grade.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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horlicks
Champion Joined: 26 Feb 2010 Status: Online Points: 8417 |
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The 1600m- 200m horse was fully endorsed by Bowman this morning. |
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Group 1 Selections
Champion Joined: 11 Sep 2012 Status: Offline Points: 13740 |
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As the one to start the thread I am obviously a fan of the horse and have done well backing her especially early. Yes I underestimated her yesterday but gee, she had her chances against the better horses last spring and this Autumn and came up a little short. I am not convinced she is even better then First Seal.
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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You haven't allowed enough for some terrible rides in the autumn. Vinery Stud and ATC Oaks to name two at G1 level in autumn.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11729 |
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I agree with this and with others about the distance. Doubt she'll stretch out to the Cups distances and very difficult to win at WFA consistently with that racing pattern. Looks an ideal Epsom horse to me.
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Group 1 Selections
Champion Joined: 11 Sep 2012 Status: Offline Points: 13740 |
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Hmm, I don't the ride in the ATC oaks was any different to her ride yesterday, just tempo was against, in the vinery she copped minor interference at the top of the straight.
Like I said I like the horse, she has been exceptional up here in qld but she had 3 goes at group 1 level in Sydney and has been held 2L + every time. She has also met First Seal 5 times over 1200m-2000m (which like you I think the 1600m-2000m is her trip) and it is 5-0 to first Seal. First Seal hardly set the world on fire against the older horses. I think she is a great little filly but I think Waller will struggle to find a Group 1 race for her in the spring. |
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LR80
Champion Joined: 06 Feb 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 9183 |
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She is heading to the Myer.
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Yes, Myer Classic is the goal. Perfect race for her, I wouldn't disagree with Waller one bit. She'll get her chance to measure up, be set for it to the minute, and can then let us know if good enough.
But it isn't asking too much of her. No Cox Plates, Mackinnons, or any of the hardcore lead ups to the big three.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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MelbourneRacing
Champion Joined: 09 May 2012 Location: Qld Status: Offline Points: 2050 |
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How good would it be if we swapped the Emirates and the Mackinnon around?
The only downside is we wouldn't see the best girls against the best boys over a mile on Derby Day, but I would love to see the Mackinnon become a prestigious race and the last Saturday of the carnival become Mackinnon Day. Reasoning being that Cox Plate horses would have a 14-day break between runs, the Myer and Emirates horses would get a chance to back up a week later over the 2000m and who doesn't want to see a premier 2000m WFA at Flemington attract the best? It won't happen, but the Emirates is a poor handicap and the Mackinnon should be a great race. |
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Group 1 Selections
Champion Joined: 11 Sep 2012 Status: Offline Points: 13740 |
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Yep agree, emirates should be WFA mile into the mckinnon on sat after as WFA
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Who are the older horses she will be up against ?
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reductio ad absurdum
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Group 1 Selections
Champion Joined: 11 Sep 2012 Status: Offline Points: 13740 |
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She can't beat horses her own age (First Seal) let alone older horses. |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Who are the older horses she should be fearful of ?
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reductio ad absurdum
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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I'd imagine the noms will feature some or all of:
Winx Catkins Noble Protector Amanpour Dublin Lass First Seal Amicus Fenway Plucky Belle Abduction Wine Tales Slightly Sweet Set Square (maybe) Sweet And Speedy Adrift Ballet Suite
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Sunline...simply supreme
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Back tomorrow at Warwick Farm.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Delta Deel
Champion Joined: 25 Aug 2015 Status: Offline Points: 8896 |
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No caulfield cup, interesting. Doubt she will even make a cox plate field especially if the 6 internationals turn up.
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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She'd make it if she won the Epsom along the way.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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fisherman
Champion Joined: 07 May 2015 Location: Cronulla Status: Offline Points: 1188 |
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She certainly looked something special in the QLD Oaks. Hope she continues in the same vain.
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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Clearly she's a good horse, but I don't have her rating particularly highly. I think the Qld Oaks was a very weak race for a G1.
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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The first 3 horses to finish behind her in the Qld Oaks had only won in provincials.
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Straight Connector
Champion Joined: 27 Aug 2015 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 1702 |
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So what's your opinion of the ATC Oaks, considering the winner had only won in provincials?
I think it is much fairer to judge the strength of the race (esp an oaks) looking back, rather than leading into it. Most horses had barely had the chance establish any consistent form going into the race. These 3yo fillies emerge quite quickly. The number of horses able to carry on with it as 4yo's, is a much better indicator of a race such as this. |
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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As a contrast to the Qld Oaks, the minor placegetters in the ATC Oaks had won group races previously.
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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Don't get me wrong. I think Winx is a smart mare, just unlikely to win a proper G1. Some of these age restricted G1s in Adelaide and Brisbane are not worthy to be G1s. Winx had three previous attempts at fillies grade G1s in Sydney for two 2nds and a 5th. This is more representative of her ability than thinking of her as a easy G1 winner of Qld Oaks.
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Straight Connector
Champion Joined: 27 Aug 2015 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 1702 |
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I don't think it's fair to say that Candelara is the difference between a strong race & a weak race.
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Straight Connector
Champion Joined: 27 Aug 2015 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 1702 |
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Let's just see how her & others from the QLD oaks progress as 4yo's as the best indicator.
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Bonfield
Champion Joined: 07 Nov 2013 Status: Offline Points: 10291 |
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I do agree with you that subsequent form is important when assessing the strength of races like the Qld Oaks, but less important that the leadup runs. The reason why is that a horse's form can improve or deteriorate drastically from one preparation to the next. To take an extreme example, consider a 3yo that wins a maiden, then goes on to win a G1 next prep. Does that make the maiden win a group quality race?
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Delta Deel
Champion Joined: 25 Aug 2015 Status: Offline Points: 8896 |
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I will add, when was the last time a QLD oaks winner went on to win a Group 1 in Syd or Melb? I am finding it hard to remember one since the kiwi mare that did the double cups. Traditionally a very weak race.
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