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Rosscoe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2015 at 3:54pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

If you have your money in Australian shares you are doing much better than international shares so far this year

While the US market rallied 11 per cent last year, it is slightly negative for 2015; by contrast, our market only rose 1.2 per cent last year but has jumped 6 per cent since the start of the year. According to Bloomberg data, the ASX200 has been the best world performer out of a group of 93 indices since January 20, in local currency terms.



http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/2/6/markets/why-sharemarket-frenzy-could-fizzle

Correct!!

I've added a few more stocks into my portfolio a few weeks back to take advantage of the upward swing.

I recently sold Telstra and took fantastic profits.

Resmed + Slater & Gordon have gone berserk, as have all of the others that I'm holding. All very much in the positive & (very healthy double digit gains)! 

Gains on the ASX this year have been extraordinary - quite amazing in fact!!

I've bought more QANTAS and recently bought Retail Food Group who are expanding some of their franchises (Gloria Jean's Coffees and It's A Grind Brand Systems into the People's Republic of China). A longer term hold with this one but has plenty of growth in front of it ….

I'd say nearly all sectors have done well today (exception being some of the commodities - which I refuse to go near!) 

The ASX200 is well up over 2%…. a magnificent rally!

With interest rates sliding, the equities is the only place to be in!!

People are now realising this after years of sitting on the sidelines post GFC! The cash is finally starting to flood into the equities …

Expect very strong returns in the short-mid term.

I'm unloading even more cash now to take advantage of these magnificent returns, upon careful selection of companies. 

Reporting season is adding plenty of spice & confidence to investors as well as improving global conditions & very low interest rates - with more to come!





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2015 at 3:57pm
and there is more overseas investment as the weaker  AUD makes  the shares very appealing
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2015 at 3:58pm
Spot on ...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Feb 2015 at 11:47am
The Reporting of all the companies I hold has now been completed with Qantas & Retail Food Group demonstrating outstanding recent results & this has reflected in the share prices heading north dramatically over the past few days ...

Retail Food Group have risen 20% since buying them only a short while back. (I believe this company is a long term proposition)

Qantas exceeding expectations & general market consensus today. (nudging a 20% gain for me as well) ... more a short term proposition.

The ASX200 / All Ords continues to close in on the 6000 mark & may well achieve this sooner rather than later.

I'd say some form of a correction has to occur shortly however I'm holding all stocks in the short/mid term as the prediction of the further interest rate cuts will have a major spinoff and add more fuel for further equity growth ...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ecair Issoire Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Mar 2015 at 8:49am
this is old news for anyone who knows stuff.
 
the big 3 banks: cba, nab + westpac have (factoring in dividends)
have virtually doubled over the last 3 years.
not bad for what's generally considered very safe stocks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Mar 2015 at 9:02am
is the market due for a correction.

the current bull run is 72 months, the average since 1937 is 55 months.

time to take profits ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ecair Issoire Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Mar 2015 at 9:18am
i know f all whale -
 
i'm going to start the trading thing through my super..but along the lines
of your post, i'm think this would generally be a bad time to get involved.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ecair Issoire Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Mar 2015 at 9:32am
bear in mind i was thinking similar when i pulled out of
the int shares option...about 9 months ago
(atleast 9 months too early)..
 
looking forward to opinions of the more knowledgeable
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Mar 2015 at 9:37am
I know as little as you Ecair.

I simply saw a headline in the financial revue giving those stats.

rosscoe is the man who seems to be right into the stock market
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ecair Issoire Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 8:10am
I work in superannuation..
+ it's really common for people to do the opposite of what they should.
They hear from every man on the st that shares are going cr*p so they move their $ into
something safe (cash for example)..so getting out when the prices are low..
then later they hear from every man on the st that shares are going good, then they
move their $ back into shares ie, buying high.
 
it's all cyclical: the idea is to go into shares when they have been cr*p for a while
+ to get out when they have been going good for a while..pretty basic principle
but many people don't understand it + have missed out on heaps in the super
for that reason, imo.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote whitt0 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 8:22am
Originally posted by Ecair Issoire Ecair Issoire wrote:

I work in superannuation..
+ it's really common for people to do the opposite of what they should.
They hear from every man on the st that shares are going cr*p so they move their $ into
something safe (cash for example)..so getting out when the prices are low..
then later they hear from every man on the st that shares are going good, then they
move their $ back into shares ie, buying high.
 
it's all cyclical: the idea is to go into shares when they have been cr*p for a while
+ to get out when they have been going good for a while..pretty basic principle
but many people don't understand it + have missed out on heaps in the super
for that reason, imo.
 

100% EI

Not to mention those people that talk up 1 or 2 stocks that perform ok but when compared to the market have been crxp...clueless!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote whitt0 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 8:23am
Originally posted by Ecair Issoire Ecair Issoire wrote:

bear in mind i was thinking similar when i pulled out of
the int shares option...about 9 months ago
(atleast 9 months too early)..
 
looking forward to opinions of the more knowledgeable
 
 

EI - been in unhedged Asian Equities for close to 12 months.

- Developed markets are expensive (asia less so)
- Currency had some way to fall. Less so now, but if growth remains weak AUD wont be recovering quickly
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote whitt0 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 8:26am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

is the market due for a correction.

the current bull run is 72 months, the average since 1937 is 55 months.

time to take profits ?

Very good question Whale. 

I tend to think we are going to have a pull back. Underpinning this is the free money (ie. low interest rates) that we have not seen before. They are at historic lows globally.

We have had such a good run. I will stay in unhedged global equities so that I am somewhat insulated should growth remain weak (ie. AUD will continue to weaken).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 8:57am
As I see it with the state of play at present with equities, the bull run we've experienced should continue for a good while yet!

The Australian Share-market under performed compared with others globally in 2014.

With interest rates at all time lows and the prospect of more to come, where do you think people are placing their money now? If you'd said equities you'd be spot on!

The Fed in the US are now considering a rate rise probably mid year, thus the volatility that occurred on the Dow Jones (Saturday our time), and our market yesterday! When the Fed does begins increasing the interest rates, it will be done very,very gradually. The AUD short continue its downward slide which will boost our economy!

I'm predicting another rate cut here either April or May. With the possibility of a further cut later in the year. The reason the RBA did not cut rates this month was mainly due to the housing bubble in Sydney however other data coming in is revealing the OZ economy is slowing big time and having a major impact on consumer confidence & also small business that badly needs an injection into the arm!

Investors are no longer accepting the very low cash rate terms that are on offer, particularly when one can take yields (dividends) in the Banks, Telstra etc that offer 4-6% compared to a cash rate of 2.25%. Fixed term deposits a little higher and diversified bonds higher again!

You can now see why equities are becoming very popular. People (particularly retirees) have been very guarded with their money since the GFC but are now realising to obtain better gains/returns they must place it into the ASX.

At present there is a small window of opportunity to make lovely gains upon careful selection of stocks.

As previously stated, the call from some of the experts is for the ASX200 / All Ords to pass the 6000 mark and maybe nudge as high as 6300 at some stage later this year. Should this occur very nice gains will be made.

To sum up, the equities are looking good for the short-mid term. There will be volatility but that is the nature of the game. With the Fed shortly increasing interest rates (when -  perhaps June or sometime later this year?) & the distinct possibility of ours heading down, the fundamentals are in place for our stock market to do well! For how long is anyone's guess!



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 9:05am
Originally posted by Rosscoe Rosscoe wrote:

As I see it with the state of play at present with equities, the bull run we've experienced should continue for a good while yet!

The Australian Share-market under performed compared with others globally in 2014.

With interest rates at all time lows and the prospect of more to come, where do you think people are placing their money now? If you'd said equities you'd be spot on!

The Fed in the US are now considering a rate rise probably mid year, thus the volatility that occurred on the Dow Jones (Saturday our time), and our market yesterday! When the Fed does begin increasing the interest rates, it will be done very,very gradually. The AUD should continue its downward slide which will boost our economy!

I'm predicting another rate cut here either April or May. With the possibility of a further cut later in the year. The reason the RBA did not cut rates this month was mainly due to the housing bubble in Sydney however other data coming in is revealing the OZ economy is slowing big time and having a major impact on consumer confidence & also small business that badly needs an injection into the arm!

Investors are no longer accepting the very low cash rate terms that are on offer, particularly when one can take yields (dividends) in the Banks, Telstra etc that offer 4-6% compared to a cash rate of 2.25%. Fixed term deposits a little higher and diversified bonds higher again!

You can now see why equities are becoming very popular. People (particularly retirees) have been very guarded with their money since the GFC but are now realising to obtain better gains/returns they must place it into the ASX.

At present there is a small window of opportunity to make lovely gains upon careful selection of stocks.

As previously stated, the call from some of the experts is for the ASX200 / All Ords to pass the 6000 mark and maybe nudge as high as 6300 at some stage later this year. Should this occur very nice gains will be made.

To sum up, the equities are looking good for the short-mid term. There will be volatility but that is the nature of the game. With the Fed shortly increasing interest rates (when -  perhaps June or sometime later this year?) & the distinct possibility of ours heading down, the fundamentals are in place for our stock market to do well! For how long is anyone's guess!




I noticed a few typos in previous post thus posted again with corrections …Embarrassed 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ecair Issoire Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 9:20am
thanks Rosscoe + whitt0,
 
it's helpful to read your line(s) of thinking..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 10:49am
The article below from the ASX site (updated only moments ago) is well worth a read :-

I have never been a believer in following the herd mentality!


http://www.asx.com.au/education/investor-update-newsletter/201503-promising-outlook-for-small-stocks.htm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Mar 2015 at 12:33pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Apr 2015 at 12:57pm
1st day back after Easter, going well Smile

Guess people are anticipating rate cut and it seems USA will not raise interest rates for a while
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Apr 2015 at 12:59pm
Originally posted by Rosscoe Rosscoe wrote:

The article below from the ASX site (updated only moments ago) is well worth a read :-

I have never been a believer in following the herd mentality!


http://www.asx.com.au/education/investor-update-newsletter/201503-promising-outlook-for-small-stocks.htm


I have done very well following the herd mentality.

I try to think as baby boomers do, they have the money, and invest in what they invest in:

banks, telstra, healthcare
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Apr 2015 at 1:15pm
The problem with following the herd is that the herd is ALWAYS late to get on and late to get off.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Apr 2015 at 5:45pm
I spoke to soon, no interest rate cut share market   Ouch


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tuft_it_Tees Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Apr 2015 at 5:49pm
They are stuck between a rock and a hard place, lowering interest rates to stimulate a flagging economy, risks further inflating the housing bubble. Place is in serious trouble, imo, the boom years won't be coming back any time soon.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote James Bond Esq Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Apr 2015 at 5:54pm
Interest rates stay the same.

Aussie $ up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2015 at 8:35pm
No rate cut in April, expected by most experts to occur.

I'll be backing a cut in May even though some of the unemployment data has improved if you can believe the figures.

April & May tend to be the quiet & at times quite volatile months.

I'm expecting the upward trend to start kicking in again in the not so distant future.

Stick with the equities - the ride is not over yet!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 May 2015 at 8:55pm
As predicted, the RBA cut interest rates by 0.25% today.

As a result, I bought a company in the REIT - Diversified Group today that I've been keeping a very close eye on. 

I bought the company just before the RBA decision and watched the company soar as a result!

Love getting my own predictions right!

Whilst volatility will remain with us for the next couple of months on the ASX, I keep repeating & reiterating the Equities is where you need to invest your hard-earned. With interest rates at all time record lows of 2% now (with a distinct possibility of another one, possibly more to come later on) ,,,  will NOT give anyone reassurance their money is working at it's full potential if in fixed term deposits or cash in the banks. A rate that is only marginally ahead of inflation!

The Stock-market ride will continue however I'm targeting the ASX200 / All Ords to be hitting somewhere between 6200-6400 points at some stage later this year. Should this occur very nice profits will be realised with careful scrutinization of companies & their potentials …

Let's hope the Government can bring down "An injection into the arm budget" & confidence booster next Tuesday! Will be interesting to see what's on their agenda ...

The Bull Run is not over yet although May-July will be volatile & until such time the reporting season starts warming up again!!!!

Stay tuned ..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2015 at 8:17pm
Sell in May and go away, wish I had Confused

Amazing turnaround from +$28,000 2 weeks ago, to + $5000 now for the self managed part of super fund.
Plus the losses in the default account Disapprove
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2015 at 9:35pm
Yes Whale …..

Very typical for this time of the year but don't despair it's only a paper loss and recovery is just around the corner! The Dow Jones went up 267 points earlier today - up 1.5%! Expect a big rally on Monday on the ASX.

Keep a very close eye on what the Fed decides to do with interest rates in June. Should an imminent hike of around 0.25% occur it just might be another trigger for more volatility!

My line of thinking now is they'll put things on hold until at least September this year and possibly even later, as some of the US data still is showing signals of distress in certain sectors. 

Very cautious buying at present ….. 

I'm not a buyer at present but will become more active just before reporting season.

If I was to jump in again, I'd be buying more QANTAS. I'm expecting bigger things from this company. I've bought 3 parcels of shares in recent times, am holding and will be buying more when the time is right. They have plenty going for them & the technical analysis is looking fantastic!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ecair Issoire Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2015 at 10:18am
QAN - Rosscoe.

basically tripled in the last 16 months - was $1:10 in jan 2014..currently $3:40.
my initial impression is that the boat has been missed with this 1.

but looking further back..highest point, i think, was $5:84 in nov 2007..
then lost around 70% from there to be around $1:62 in march 2009.
which i would take as suggesting that  the top end of share price could be between $6-$7..
on a very simplisitc - basis...i know basically nothing about the industry etc...+ trading generally.

without going 100% over my head, if possible, what do you mean by technical analysis?

i will keep an eye on it..i'm still not ready to start having a dabble..maybe in the next 6-12 months.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2015 at 12:59pm
Yes EI - there is a lot going for QANTAS at present. One of the more renowned Brokers Morgan Stanley are very bullish about the stock as I am (technically speaking)! You'll hear from investment commentators that airline stocks are "Flys but not Buys". However, if you had followed this commentary you would have missed a magnificent run in growth that has transpired over the past few quarters for QANTAS & it's not over yet!!!! 

Morgan Stanley has this to say about the stock:-


Qantas Gets Sky-High Price Target from Morgan Stanley -- Market Talk

Posted on 30 April 2015 15:13 | DOW JONES INSTITUTIONAL NEWS

0513 GMT [Dow JonesMorgan Stanley has emerged as the most bullish broker onQantas Airways (QAN.AU), claiming its FY16 earnings forecast for the carrier is 50% above consensus and doubling its price target on the stock to A$5.40. The upbeat note has driven the Australian airline's shares up 3.1% to A$3.34--39% below Morgan Stanley's lofty price target. "We see consensus excessively pricing the risk that oil benefits and cost reduction will eventually be offset lower yields [airfares]," the broker says. "With yield growth still positive, a significant margin for error is building, implying strong upside risk to consensus." Qantas is now the second-cheapest airline on the broker's coverage list. (Ross.Kelly@wsj.com)


Aussie Airline Yield Recovery Unappreciated: Morgan Stanley -- Market Talk

Posted on 8 May 2015 12:39 | DOW JONES INSTITUTIONAL NEWS

0239 GMT [Dow Jones] Proprietary airfare data gives Morgan Stanley further confidence in the yield outlook for Australia's airlines, pointing to solid growth on flights between the country's main cities continuing to offset weakness elsewhere. It also suggests that concerns the airlines might share with customers the benefits of lower fuel prices and cost cutting are overdone, the brokerage says. It reckons the consensus view of the market is far too bearish on the yield outlook for Qantas(QAN.AU). Its data suggests ongoing domestic airfare growth on the country's east coast. The key inter-city domestic routes are significant revenue contributors for both QAN and rival Virgin Australia (VAH.AU), it notes. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; Twitter: @RobbMStewart)


To answer your other question about Technical Analysis the following link is worth a read (put in simplistic terms):-

http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/

Trust that helps ….

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