Superannuation Investment Returns

Another view of the state of play looking at the 2017 year going forward. My sentiments as well, although some of the targets are quite optimistic! Go the Bull!!


http://www.wealthwithin.com.au/scripts/all-ords-report.php?id=224

Thought I'd throw up another stock to follow. I personally bought this one at 26c and it has shot up to 34c very quickly.

The name is Senex (SXY), a company in the ASX 300. It belongs in the "Energy Sector", a sector like "Oil", I love at present!

The fundamentals are great with a few subtle things happening behind the scenes however the technical analysis is superb at present. I'm expecting this stock to continue to perform very well.

As always have a stop loss in place. I use a trailing stop-loss so my "out" if need be is higher than the price that it was bought at. It means I make a profit even if the trend reverses! The graphing will let me know when the time is right to sell. At present that appears a while away without me being more definitive. You have to let stocks run and not go for quick profits.

Interesting that this stock last peaked at around $1.06 back in 2012!! It's on the move again .....

Whale wrote: Whale wrote:  for market overreaction such as Tabcorp when greyhound ban was announced, Aristocrat when  it was announced they were being sued by addicted gambler. IMO Crown Resorts is another such opportunity, has dropped 12% today on news of arrests, I bought in at $11.39 Patience is a virtue, up  95 cents to $12.34 today

Nice one Whale!

I assume you will be piling the profits into silver?

The market appears to be heading in the direction I thought!

The down days are quite shallow and volitality has subsided in recent times!

All looking good for more bullishness ....

The latest report from an analyst I respect with the state of play. Projections are highly optimistic however .....



All Ords Report 17 March 2017
Borrowers are being offered what on the surface looks like a sweet deal, but is it?

Many of you may have been following the banking enquiry, and will have heard commentary about banking or bank staff practices, so your opinion of banks may not be good. Perhaps you’ve never trusted them, and were not surprised by the news?

A couple of days after hearing a debate about whether or not bank employees, who have been found to have done the wrong thing, ought to be named and shamed, I wondered what the banks could do to repair customer perceptions. Then I hear that at least one of the banks has reportedly offered property investor borrowers what appears to be a sweet deal. Borrowers may have the opportunity to keep their current lending rate on an interest only loan, provided they change to principal and interest.

Is this an effort to look after customers, or are banks helping themselves?

While in theory paying something off the principal each fortnight or month reduces the total borrowing costs over the life of the loan, and saves you money, it also places a restriction on your cash flow, or ability to borrow for other investments.

Property investors know how important this is. Say you currently pay $2,500 a month in interest, you may be paying $3,500 on a principal and interest loan. That is $1,000 a month that you don’t have to fund the purchase of another investment property, or to save for shares. Some people are yet to learn how to invest safely in the market and so they have a large exposure to direct property and not enough in shares.

Now back to cash flow….

Remember, banks don’t care if you have a sizeable sum in your bank account that could be used to fund the loan payments, as it could be there one day and gone the next. Your capacity to pay will be considered based on your income and expenses, including existing loans.

Speak to your bank and check a mortgage calculator before making a decision. Consider what the extra sum represents, and how far the interest only loan rate would have to rise before it impacts your cash flow by the same amount.

What do we expect in the market?

The All Ordinaries Index (XAO) received a boost yesterday from overseas markets, gaining 14 points or 0.24 per cent to close at 5827.5 points. Initially, the market was up by around 27 points, however, news of a higher unemployment rate in Australia softened the rise.

Should the market fall below 5724 points over the coming two weeks, it is likely to soften slightly further before finding support for the next rise. However, I see a move in either direction at this point as positive. When the market eventually trades above the high of 5881 points in February 2017 this will indicate that the market is on track to reach the target zone and challenge the all-time high in 2018. Either way, I remain bullish on the Australian market, as despite what you may hear, it is behaving in a ‘normal’ fashion.

Looking overseas, the US market has softened over the past week, however, it enjoyed buyer support on Wednesday evening following the announcement by the FED to lift rates. However, it appears that the boost in US equities may have been more to do with the FED’s commentary not changing markedly from the “steady as she goes” approach. We are likely to see at least one more rise from the FED this year.

Interestingly, with all of the discussions about Brexit, the UK market has remained incredibly strong, having pushed through past resistance to a new all-time high last year. All markets have been pushing higher, including the German market, the DAX, which is about to challenge its all-time high. So the big money markets, including the US, are either trading in blue sky (and making new all-time highs, or are close to breaking into blue sky territory, except for the Asian markets, particularly the Hang Seng (HSI) and the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC), which are currently in the order of 25% and 47% below their all-time highs, respectively. And, our market, being in the Asian region, is also well below the high.

This global momentum to new highs means our market is lagging, and will eventually break through its high. My analyst team believe there is a reasonable probability of a new all-time high (6873 points) being achieved during the next 12 to 18 months (at the latter end of this period) and this is our current target for the medium term. The previous medium term target between 6200 to 6400 points, or 6% to 10% above the current level, is now the short term target.

Don't know what that builder is doing wrong. Yes there will be a correction at some stage, but for the time being Sydney and Melbourne real estate is still booming

Wrapped with the move with blackmores following the Chinese
Changing their stance on the import laws.another good day today,
Not like yesterday's bonanza but hopefully the share price can break through
$125 ish which has seemed a bit of a barrier over last few months.

Still liking ieu the etf that tracks the s & p Europe 350
Been a solid climber last few weeks .. And generally much better value there IMO
Than in the u s market which is inflated by trump hype IMO and she's for a correction which may've started last week or so. As a long term play very little risk with ieu as spread over 350 shares, different sectors and countries .

Mate of mine reckons a big crash is coming soon... But he's a bit of a conspiracy theory nut so tonne of salt with that opinion.

You wouldn't be buying an apartment in the cbd of melb / Syd or bris anytime soon if you believe the "experts" .. Prices can only come down over next 2-3 yrs generally in those markets they reckon . perosnally I don't care as I'm not looking at buying for a coupe of yrs anyway and wouldn't be interested in apartments at all.

Bang!!

The small window of opportunity was taken in the above mentioned dip a week back, with more stocks that have soared beautifully.

Stockmarket now up 125 points in the last 2 days and heading towards 6000.

All global markets are performing in a bullish way!

I am keeping a very close eye on an Asian Fund at present that is just about to pull the buy trigger.


Why invest in Asia?

The global economy is recovering from the threat of deflation over the past few years. It still has massive debt problems that will never go away but the market is starting to see inflation win over for now. Inflation is now on the rise & In a world with lots of debt, this is a positive thing.

The Bull is thinking of running amok .....

All Ords Report 06 April 2017
Australians are known for their competitive spirit, particularly in sport, and so it seems is the case in financial circles.

If the US market is moving up, Australians wonder why our market isn't doing the same?

If the US consumers are spending more, why aren’t we?

If the US economy shows stronger signs of recovery, why isn’t ours?

Given the recovery underway in the US, where interest rates are now rising, should we be asking.…

Perhaps we ought to rein in the competitive spirit for a moment and think carefully about what we wish for.

Now let’s go back to the before-mentioned point about consumer spending and how it has been rising. What’s really interesting is how those in the financial industry in Australia, seeing the US data improving, immediately look to the same industry or sector here. Why? Because of the potential to profit of course.

However, a corresponding move up in value in any sector or group of companies in Australia may only be short-lived, unless the numbers support it. But which numbers are you reading?

If you are constantly reading information containing data that is short term in nature, how can you possibly understand the bigger picture to make better informed decisions? Remember, if you fail to understand the bigger picture the consequences are painful as you may watch your capital decline.

The answer? Logic suggests that we must consider historical trends, and put short term data into context. So how can you do that?

Based on my many years of experience in seeking the answers, it isn’t going to be just handed to you on a platter. Many people waste hours upon hours scouring through free information and still don’t have what they need.

First you must see the bigger picture financial and other benefits to you in finding it, then seek the solution. Learn what you need to know and the rewards will flow to you.

Back to retail spending…

Retail spending in Australia more recently, and particularly through the festive season, has reportedly been a disappointment, and therefore it will be interesting to see how the numbers appear after the financial year end. However, just to find a positive spin for us Aussies, someone looked back to what Australians spent during the Spring Racing Carnival, and guess what? A record level of spending!

So this must mean we’re doing well.

What do we expect in the market?

Last week, the All Ordinaries Index (XAO) rose strongly to a high of 5937 points, after having pulled back to test support at around 5730 points the week prior. Finally, the market has made another convincing move up.

The next challenge for our market is to break 6000 points and this is looking ever more likely, and firms up our previous target for the market between 6200 and 6400 points.

I had been expecting the market to pull back for a couple of weeks prior to the continuation of the uptrend. With the market now likely to make the next short term low later, the degree of the next decline is likely to be sharper but shorter, which is good for investors. That said, the higher and faster the market rises, there is a slight risk of increased volatility in the second half of the year.

In my opinion, this is a much better time to be in the market than in 2015, and the chart of the XAO indicates a further rise is probable. Of course, that does not preclude a few bumps along the way.

It was interesting to see the US market continue to rise. More interesting though was hearing how market commentators failed to reach agreement on why the US market rose from Monday through Thursday. Reportedly, it was US consumer confidence that was the recent driver, and positive GDP results. However, the US market had already come off its high of four weeks ago, so it’s normal for the selling to ease and for prices to rise slightly.

When commentators are not decisive, funnily enough, this usually provides a technical analyst with additional confirmation as to the phase the market is likely to be trading in. Given the analysis and the commentary, the Australian market is on track. For the present, we stick to what is probable based on the historical data, not the commentary about what is a cause, or what may occur in future.

The US Federal Reserve doesn’t appear to be providing clarify on the outlook for the next rate rise, which will have the naysayers believing the worst, and the overly optimistic the best.

Yes, always a risk that a black swan event would arrive at some stage.

Again I believe this will be healthy for markets mid term, while short term there may be some volatility.

No doubt, the doubters will turn to gold!

No need to panic .....

The current Macroeconomics won't change.

The table below shows the Investment Options of a typical Superannuation Fund. Results of course will vary depending on the Fund and the way the funds are invested.

One can see clearly why Cash & Bonds are NOT the options for placement of one's money in the current environment. Bonds have only in very recent times come out of negative territory.

Australian & International shares have been the huge winners in the last 12 months & also this financial year. A trend I expect will continue on into 2018.

Recent months have seen some unbelievable gains, particularly on the ASX (which is now out-performing International markets) by a slight margin.

The Bull Market is in full swing here with the occasional bump along the way. What has amazed me to date, is the fact the dips have been so shallow.

Unfortunately people get into these sorts of markets after it has had a fantastic run ,,, they join the herd hoping they won't miss out!

The problem for most is timing and WHEN to get out!!

I apologise for the formatting of the table below:-



Investment option :-

Financial year to date as at 12 Apr 2017     Unit prices as at 12 Apr 2017     

1 year as at 31 Mar 2017     3 years p.a. as at 31 Mar 2017     5 years p.a. as at 31 Mar 2017


Moderate      4.09%     2.8687     5.50%     5.59%     6.26%     
Balanced      6.85%     3.8002     9.32%     9.23%     9.78%     
Socially Responsible     8.07%     3.2317     8.50%     5.96%     8.30%     
Aggressive     12.14%     3.2378     13.89%     10.46%     11.73%     
Cash     1.27%     2.1674     1.71%     1.86%     2.10%     
Diversified Bonds     0.29%     3.0110     2.39%     4.09%     5.04%     
International Shares 18.17%     2.9630     16.48%     9.98%     12.30%     
Australian Shares     18.25%     3.4481     20.53%     8.71%     11.17%     

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Each of our options has a different objective, risk profile, and asset allocation. Visit our investment options section for more detailed information. Changes to inflation, fees, asset allocations, option objectives, and risk, play a significant part in the return of any investment option.

Market looking pretty full!!!

Cheers,

I got into tpm a few months back ( down about 4% so far)..
So I should consider not being over committed in 1 sector.

Your strategies are clearly working for you: but there's obv more than 1 rd that leads to Rome. Bit more risky trying to pick the bottom : but by waiting till an up trend is established And solid you may've missed out on a big chunk of profit ..
Again not suggesting at all that you are wrong : just that atm I'm happy to try and pick the bottom in companies as large and well known as Telstra : or as per early last yr bhp when it was $16 ish and in nov last yr when cba was $69 ..
Very early days for me though & I didn't act/ buy either bhp or cba when I considered so got nothing but a bit of confidence outta them.

If your position changed on the telco sector I'd be interested to know

Cheers again

I don't doubt at all that you are doing well. I'm just learning the ropes and want to keep it simple for a couple of yrs atleast . Buy solid big companies when I believe they are close to the bottom of their trading range and get out when I think they are close to the top.
Your strategy is obv much more complicated and probably profitable: but also requires some skills and experience that I don't have currently.

Onwards and upwards 👍

Cheers

You too.

I bought BKL @ $104..a few months ago and am happy to hold on for a while longer.
Few chart "experts" suggest getting to & over $125 is the pt at which it'll be a buy.
Potentially meaning it could run up a bit from there to maybe $140 quite quickly as that's when an up trend will appear to be established. The downside : a few experts have suggested it could get as low as $80. Rough sell pts for me would be $150 top and $88 bottom. Ranging between approximately a 15% loss or about a 45% gain.
Good luck mate hopefully it goes the right way for us.

The other 2 I own atm are TPG which I got at $7 similar angle there: sell at $6 ish or $11 ish is my plan & IEU which tracks the S &P Europe 350. Barring any major correction/ slump I see that as the safe steady performer. I bought lowish at $51:80 so pretty happy with when I got in and could see it getting to $70 by the end of next yr again barring any major correction etc.

Was looking at Syd airport when it got under $6 a few months back but didn't pull the trigger .. Up 15% since then .. Can't win em all: but that was a good example of getting a quality big company at towards the bottom of it s range after dropping approx 20% in 3 months for no real reason other than interest rates appearing as they would go up over next few yrs and a general move away from the steady income stocks or bond proxies as some call them. Again I didn't pull the trigger and buy when I was tempted so a missed opportunity but all part of the learning curve .

SHL the other "safe steady climber" I like and hoping for a little drop in price to buy some. Hardly any downside risk IMO if bought in the low $21 range and could easily get to $25 or more by the end of next year with some divs thrown in, (Again barring any major downward market correction/slump whatever you wanna call it.)


You were keen on COH I think I recall which has been doing well
This calendar yr: if I recall correctly : well done and hope it keeps doing well for you.

May dame fortune smile upon us