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Vic Weather |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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"The good news is the models still see the Low forming, the bad news is Southern Vic will get little now as it looks to stay North." "So thats all i have time for tonight, by the morning we should have seen a big dumping of rain over the Mallee and Wimmera of Victoria." |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45318 |
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Do not talk to us about weather.
Wang races transferred tomorrow, 60% the property 4 inches under water (yes that's 10 mls for anyone under 50 years of age) and another 10-35 mls expected tomorrow. ps did I mention not talking about *#!! weather?
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Go Flash Go
Champion Joined: 08 Mar 2007 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 10245 |
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.... it's hard to plan your week with an update on Tuesday night.
There was a lot of scampering for new data by the Weather bureau yesterday afternoon which made things look sus as far as their predictions went.....
... anyway good day to catch up on things (without getting wet )
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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**** POTENTIAL MOST DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM OF THE YEAR MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN/SOUTH EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEXT WEEK WITH HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING IN PARTS AND DANGEROUS WINDS!! (5 to 6 days time) **** **** PLEASE SHARE/TAG THIS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT WARNING/INFORMATION AS THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY DANGEROUS **** - This system (System no 7 as we named it a few days ago) has the energy and power to be equivalent to a category one possibly even a category two.. Due to the low pressure and powerful damaging possibly destructive winds. - A very strong front and trough will combine to bring rain some heavy in parts along with thunderstorms (some severe) over south eastern and eastern Australia - The rain may produce further flooding in parts of Victoria, SA, TAS, inland NSW, Southern QLD may also see flooding conditions worsen. - A low will develop in response to the strong cold front and "BOMB" in the Bight with extreme low pressure, Most models now show are very similar scenario with the low expected to deepen between 970-980hPa at its peak! - A low this deep is likely to result in widespread damage! Flooding along the coast. coastal erosion parts of SA and VIC & possibly Tasmania as well as damaging/destructive winds with 125km/h+ wind gusts near the low, heavy rain also near the low as it wraps around. Please guys regardless if this system happens to this strength or ends up being weaker we need to let people know of the POTENTIAL DANGER if it develops exactly like this or even remotely close to how the models suggest. Any low this large and this deep at 985hPa or below can cause widespread dangerous weather. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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OMG! ... Where's the promised Global Warming!!! ... predictions of endless drought are seeming a little bit fanciful ... especially when we look like having an inland sea!
Thank god for the desalination plants! ... can we please have some more, before we all die of dehydration!???
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Go Flash Go
Champion Joined: 08 Mar 2007 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 10245 |
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And here we go again another rollercoaster week (if it all eventuates) with the important day being Sunday this time - hopefully all sunshine by then ... ... and and and where will this water all go ... ??? ... mainly straight into the sea ..... because ????
Heard the chain lock on the gate of ? state's desal plant has gone rusty
....who needs comedians when you live is ostraylia
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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Hoping Ballarat gets some of this 'cos gez it's dry Yep, I sure remember Feb '11, we ended up with 1/2 next doors' sand track in our paddock (still got it) courtesy of the new hill track drainage not being correctly diverted
Special Update, December 29th.Good afternoon everyone, hope you are coping with this record humidity, I am indeed not as its my one thing I hate most. However, it does bring weather with it so on this occasion it is worth it. And believe me its about to bring it. We are about to see a very special event unfold, much like Feb 4 2011 if anyone can remember it. We are now at record humidity levels and dew points, and this can only mean one thing, we are about to see one of the biggest events we will ever see. For the next 6 hours, most of the action will be inside these two lines, coming down from the NW. And what will happen is these two lines will ever so slowly moves East, and the storms will just continue erupting inside this area. This is what we call training over the same area, so we have huge potential here for some extraordinary falls, in the vicinity of 100 mm plus. Current radar shows this explosion of storms, and this is nothing compared to what it will look like in a couple of hours. So everyone needs to prepare for flooding this evening and large hailstones, takes all precautions you can now in Victoria and Southern NSW inside this area. The NE of the state will easily see falls to 100 mm, it wont surprise to see some spots double that, and I think I have mentioned this from the start a week ago, nothing will surprise me with this system. Tonight I will also update on this system, and check on everything else that is going as well. I will keep updating on FB too this afternoon on my page as it unfolds. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Brudder_A
Champion Joined: 01 Apr 2013 Location: Uzhhorod Status: Offline Points: 4220 |
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I left Melbourne for Adelaide today and drove through the deluge from about Stawell to Horsham.
The rain was coming down hard in many places along the road. Knew very well that if I didn't leave early today that I could get quite stuck in Melbourne especially around the Ring Road near Tullamarine. |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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Very dry here still, it completely missed us I think there's a race meeting due around mid month, that should trigger it
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Go Flash Go
Champion Joined: 08 Mar 2007 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 10245 |
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Nice to see the end of that 100 % rel humidity in Melbourne ....... for now ......
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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Yes that was most uncomfortable, face caked with sweat every time I took dog for a walk, but the worst is trying to sleep.
If I wanted Malaysian weather I would have moved tgere with Red |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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Current satellite loop shows the trough deepening over SA, and the cold front is still well to the South. this rain is intensifying as it moves South, because it is encountering cooler air. This is nothing compared to tomorrow afternoon, once this thing gets cranking tomorrow we are going to see it explode. By the morning these two systems will be touching, tomorrow we will see widespread cold cored thunderstorms as response through much of Southern Vic, and even the lower SE of SA. The rain in SW Victoria is very heavy, and I think this system is going to exceed expectations by some margin, because models are not seeing what will happen when the upper trough gets up and hits this cloud mass. Edited by Gay3 - 24 Apr 2017 at 9:06pm |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Go Flash Go
Champion Joined: 08 Mar 2007 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 10245 |
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Gee l'm glad l don't go to the footy anymore .... hope a lightning bolt hits the football
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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In case some of you do forward form off noms. Looks like it could be wet for next weekends' Ballarat jump program which should suit most if not spectators.
A.V. Weather: It (model) is also continually ramping up Victorian and SE SA rainfall, this is now going to be a very wet 10 days, before we see a bit of a dry spell for a week or so to end August. So no changes, a really wet sequence to come, a massive cold burst is likely next Friday in Vic and Southern NSW, then a bit of a drier week in a fortnight. Ballarat: Week 1, August 11th – August 18th Showers and cold fronts continue in Southern Victoria Short wave troughs move through regularly, with showers with each one. On Tuesday a major trough develops in SA and moves into Victoria Widespread showers develop again on Thursday as another trough moves through. Rainfall : 15 – 25 mm Forecast Confidence : Very High Edited by Gay3 - 12 Aug 2017 at 8:43pm |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Rosscoe
Champion Joined: 02 Apr 2007 Location: Brisbane Status: Offline Points: 6124 |
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Meanwhile Brisbane is going to experience summer temps next week!
Tmw - 26 Mon - 26 Tues - 28 Wed - 30 Thurs - 30 Fri - 27 |
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Current Stable - Soul Star & Adivinar + Lady Vega
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Here I am in underwear only . What a climate this Brisbane has.
This global warming puts a lustre on your cluster. Affects the memory a little . >>> Which reminds me , I must turn off the bluddy heater. |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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Bit of weather on it's way?
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Dizzy
Premium Joined: 17 Sep 2013 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 16836 |
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May get a bit damp.
Friday 1 December
Melbourne areaCloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible. Winds northerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon. Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme] Saturday 2 December
Melbourne areaCloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Heavy falls possible. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening. Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme] Sunday 3 December
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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Channel 9 are saying there could be up to 300mm over the weekend
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Dizzy
Premium Joined: 17 Sep 2013 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 16836 |
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And we all believe the press..... Although the above is only the Melbourne forecast - other areas are expecting higher rainfall.
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max manewer
Champion Joined: 31 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 32947 |
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I was talking to a bloke the other day who said the unusual rainy spring in SE Qld of 2017 reminded him of the months leading up to the 1974 Brisbane flood. I marvelled at his memory, but he might be right.
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTSevere Weather Warningfor HEAVY RAINFALLFor people in Central, East Gippsland, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts. Issued at 11:06 am Thursday, 30 November 2017. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY A large high pressure system near New Zealand continues to direct a hot and humid northeasterly airstream over Victoria. A trough of low pressure crossing the Bight will reach western Victoria late today then become slow moving. A low pressure system will develop on the trough over northwestern Victoria on Friday then drift slowly southeastwards over the weekend. Milder, less humid southerly winds will develop behind the low, as a new high pressure system forms in the Bight. HEAVY RAIN and SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are likely to develop in the far west during TONIGHT before extending across the remaining parts of the State during FRIDAY. The heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will continue on SATURDAY. Three day totals of around 100-200mm are expected acoss most of northern and central regions of the State. Elsewhere totals are likely to be between 30 and 100mm. Over the northeast ranges totals may exceed 250mm. Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wodonga, Wangaratta, Traralgon and Bairnsdale. The State Emergency Service advises that people should: The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEDT Thursday. |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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Max - Barwon Heads VIC says:
Is there potential for it to be as big as the Dec 2003 storm in Melbourne that was considered a ‘once in a hundred years’ storm? Seems like we average these every 7-8 years but the media (and BoM) forget the previous big event… Hi Max, that was different, that was a huge storm event that went through, and then after it was all done we had sea breeze convergence at 11 pm kick off even bigger storms in the Melbourne area. This one will be similar to Feb 1 2005, a huge cut off formed after dragging down heaps of tropical moisture and bombing the low over West Gippsland, and then the wrap around gave Melbourne and the Otways litres of rain over night with widespread gales. I still maintain we went through a Category 1 cyclone equivalent that night. This one will be similar to that. In case anyone's needing to prepare, this is the AV estimate for this event in Vic. He did cover the other States if anyone wants them. Here is the overall picture from the EC, a huge event and also good rain with the trough in QLD too So given this, here is the latest forecasts for you, I think the main change is now Central and West Gippsland are now firmly in the gun if the low bombs off the Victorian coast. Mallee : 50 – 70 mm, possible falls to 100 mm. Wimmera : 45 – 70 mm SW Vic : 35 – 60 mm Central Vic : 75 – 130 mm, higher on the ranges. Northern Vic : 50 – 100 mm North Central : 60 – 100 mm, higher on the ranges. NE Vic : 150 – 300 mm – Major flood potential West Gippsland : 100 – 200 mm – Major Flood Potential East Gippsland : 150 – 300 mm – Major Flood likely. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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Hope the baby goats have got wellies
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17253 |
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All the local farmers are out in force today trying to salvage as much crop as they can before it gets destroyed
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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I so dislike extremes
And for Tassie Snow follows summer heat as Tasmanian weather lives up to reputation for extremes12:27 EDT It is common knowledge in Tasmania to keep a coat in the car, as the weather can swing wildly from sunstroke to shivering faster than you can say "isn't this supposed to be summer?" The state's reputation for was in evidence again on Wednesday, with Hobartians reaching for the doonas during an overnight minimum of 9 degrees Celsius, just days after an overnight low of 23.9C on Monday morning broke the record for highest minimum January temperature. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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Finally after 6wks of no rain whatsoever in B'rat (5mls in Feb for the pedantic), Hughie is sending it down & has been since 8.30
I near killed myself Thursday, weed spraying, fertilising & hand broadcating pasture seed on 2 acres, in the hope http://avweather.net would be correct in his repeated posts that this system would give more than predicted, as without his insistence, I wouldn't have risked wasting such an expense given the WZ forecast of 5-10mm Sat/Sun which frequently results in us missing out. Looks like another hour to go which may well give us around an inch of steady, soaking stuff. Too wet to check now tho' What chance Mornington to get thru'? |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Online Points: 21697 |
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" Quote" I nearly killed myself yesterday,..not another fatal Gay3.
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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At long, long last, some meaningful rain & better still after our few rounds had dried enough to be bales & shedded late yesterday arvo in a do or die exercise as it had had already had 11mm since mowing & several body breaking, manual windrow turnings with our hand made wooden rakes Similar to below but light steel braces. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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So wet I have not been able to drive to my favourite coffee spot. My car is not designed for floating
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