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Chautauqua |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31290 |
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She's 3rd favourite.
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Underground
Champion Joined: 18 Aug 2012 Location: Sydn Status: Offline Points: 683 |
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easily the best single race/meeting analysis I have seen on here Tontonan, thankyou. lol @ the people just shrugging it off like it's nothing, facts are facts, just because you don't agree with them doesn't mean they are incorrect. "using your eyes" isn't the best way to go about things, ever really.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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"using your eyes" isn't the best way to go about things, ever really.
Given the history of "eye witness" failure, the ability of the brain to fool the eyes and vice-versa I can mostly agree with that Undergrpound. However I can provide a few examples on a racetrack where seeing and believing (albeit along with a little knowledge) tells FAR more than stats ever can and has been profitable to me and probably many others at various times. They all relate to track "bias" in some way and that's something which numbers will rarely if ever pick up.
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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How long should we marvel at what we saw before we ruin it with over analysis ?
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reductio ad absurdum
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Tontonan
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2007 Status: Offline Points: 3898 |
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I haven't criticized Chautauqua in any way. I have not considered his performance to be anything less than outstanding. In fact, it is because of the outstanding nature of his performance that I have bothered to scrutinize it. Yet there is this reaction that seems to think that I am in some way or another undermining the quality of the horses performance.
There is nothing particularly controversial about my analysis. On a heavy track a Group 1 field of sprinters has broken fast. There has been a contested lead that has forced the pace. Toward the end of the race, as the result of the extertions of running hard on the heavy track the pace of the race has collapsed. As the pace of the race has collapsed the entire field has been gathered up by Chautauqua who appears to have charged home from last to win on the line. I say 'appeared' because there is an optical illusion (or perhaps just a misperception) in every race that horses accellerate at the end of races when more often they are actually slowing down - and the horse that slows down slowest is often thought to be the horse that is charging. It is an illusion that is indisputably exposed by the clock. But there is a reluctance to accept it. There are two reasons why Chautauqua won the TJ Smith. The first is because he was capable of doing what he did. The second is because there was a pace collapse in front. The reason why other horses from the back did not come on in the same way is they were not Chautauqua. Surely that is not so hard to understand. As I say I have the apparently mad idea that in every race the circumstances and dynamics of the race have as much bearing on the outcome of the race as the merit or ability of the horses. My mad idea explains why the best horse does not win every race in turn but the best horse in the circumstances always does. Those that dismiss my mad idea must explain then why they are left scratching their heads looking at their ratings after each race wondering why it didn't result the way that it 'should'. All I have done here is explain the circumstances and dynamics of the race and how they have contributed to the outcome of the race. It does not detract from an outstanding performance, it explains it. But I get it. People are upset because the spectacle that they enjoyed so much is being diminished by reason. It's a buzz kill. |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31290 |
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I said here a year ago that Winx would beat Chaut in a Lightning Stakes, because she would be in front of him and he could not run her down. Am I wrong?
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21698 |
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Well I'm not upset Tontonan your brilliant breakdown of the TJ was an eye opener and I'm sure people who can read into this would agree, I am going to use a quote from your post to show how correct it can be . "My mad idea explains why the BEST horse does not win every race in turn, but the BEST horse in the circumstances does", never more has this theory been proven correct than in this years Australian Cup when Humidor beat Jameka
he sat back doing no work while she was attacked left right and centre and he beat her a head, but I digress keep up the good work Tontonan. |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Who knows Tlaz? Don't think either of them has ever gone near to cracking the 10secs for 200m as BC did, which is interesting but hardly a pointer to the qualities of Winx overall since she's not a short course champion.
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Tontonan
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2007 Status: Offline Points: 3898 |
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Thanks for the encouragement folks. It is appreciated.
I don't know Tlaz but it would be fun finding out ! My gut feeling is that the grey would win. We know he can do this : 1. Chautauqua 14.47 (6) - 10.50 (5) - 10.30 (5) - 10.49 (5) - 11.26 (1) = 57.02 (600 in 32.05) Good 3 That was the 2016 Lightning. He ran 3 sub 11's from the 800 to the 200 and finished with an 11.26. Those splits are Caviar like. To my knowledge Winx has never broken 11. Her best split that I know of was 11.08 in the 2016 Apollo on a Good track. That suggests that once she's balanced she could probably break 11 - but three in a row ? I just don't think it is her caper. Her thing is sustaining 11s, so she really comes into her own from 1400m. One reason she has won 16 in a row is that Waller doesn't send her over distances where she would be vulnerable - and I reckon she'd be vulnerable at 1000m. She might break faster than the grey but once Chautauqua finds his feet, as the above splits show, he can really burn and keep burning. 1200m would be interesting. 1400m and I am on the mare. |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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I had a very quick (NB) look at both their sectional abilities too Tontonan.
Warwick Stakes (2016?) she ran 10.98 10.64 11.05 for the last 600m. Don't think Chau is capable of those numbers you wrote above in his "middle" age but at his earlier peak you'd have to be on him against Winx over 1000m ten times out of ten and over 1200m at least nine out of ten.
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Tontonan
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2007 Status: Offline Points: 3898 |
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Yep I have a couple too...
10.84 & 10.68 in a Warwick Farm 1100m race as a 2YO on 4 June 2014 10.88 in the 2015 Theo Marks 1300m |
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brave_ponies
Champion Joined: 06 Sep 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 3244 |
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Just wanted to add thanks to Tontonan. Analysis is usually way over my head - just show me the horsies! - but I've found your posts here to be interesting and accessible. I've even watched replays since and knowing how the race was run made the win even more special to see. (I might even pick the winner one day. )
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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All pales in comparison to Black Caviar's sustained speed in the Newmarket carrying 57kgs (58 with vest).
13.75 10.64 10.30 10.27 10.65 11.75 = 1.07.36 (fastest ever on the rebuilt track if I'm not mistaken) That 800m split of 41.86 has her travelling at close to 70kph if my quick arithmetic is accurate (???)
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Formerly Kincsem
Champion Joined: 23 Oct 2016 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 523 |
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"They all relate to track "bias" in some way and that's something which numbers will rarely if ever pick up" Disagree. I think track bias can be mathematically dissected with technology such as Trackus. I'm sure there must be computer betting operations who have a massive advantage from dissecting sectionals within certain parts of the track. If not, they should be. The greatest punters of all time knew little about racing, they were an Actuary working for an insurance company and a mathematician.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21698 |
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So do those actuaries walk the track to find the fast lanes, now that would be interesting.
or have I got the bull by the horns. |
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Trackus is a pup imo - or I should say the extra distance measurement is. It will take years of stats before anything useful can be made of it imo, and even then I'd be surprised if it showed anything significantly useful.
The important thing wrt the "bias" I was talking about is that times and sectionals won't show it and the run won't have a flashing light on it. For example - and these are based on actual occurrences - wide runners at Doomben finishing on but out of the placings when nothing at all has figured in the finish taking that course. Another case which vividly sticks in my mind was in Melb where frontrunners were foundering. I found a horse (name escapes me now) which struggled into 4th or 5th against the trend, subsequently won next start at $6. I tipped it on a forum giving that as the reason. The key is that the runs were all better than they looked on paper IF you paid close attention to the trends on the day. This advantage doesn't throw up lots of winners of course and they don't all win next start. You have to pick the eyes out of it by watching closely - preferably on the day in my case. The most useful, missing tool imo is overhead shots. There appears no reason why drones couldn't be used to film races from above - other than complacency and additional cost.
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Formerly Kincsem
Champion Joined: 23 Oct 2016 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 523 |
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Even without sectionals etc. I could probably get a good grasp of track bias after a number of races are run on any particular day.
I would just create a field position bias factor and tune it so that my predicted probabilities align closer with actual finishing positions. Would be tiny samples but probably much more scientific/accurate than purely going on gut feel. You could also do the same with what lane a horse has down the straight and use both to get a good guide. The more races run on the day would make the factor more accurate. If computer teams aren't doing this already I'd be very surprised. |
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Formerly Kincsem
Champion Joined: 23 Oct 2016 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 523 |
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Carioca, the bloke I'm referring too hardly watched a race let alone turned up to the track. Alan Woods.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21698 |
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Mate I'm stuck in a time warp, too old for the tea leaf reading as such lol, but I must tell you I never seen Sinatra in concert but I still play his music if that's of any consequence. |
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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Cross fingers and hope ge goes to the All Aged
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Apologies to the gallant grey for intruding on his thread but to add to the bias discussion above David Gately put together an amusing but informative report using the TJSmith as an example.
https://www.racing.com/shows/get-on 13 minute mark
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21698 |
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WFA Doomben Ten Thousand for this little champ I feel, more than likely weighted out of the Stradbroke.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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He's spelling for the Everest Carioca. Will have to have at least one run beforehand I'd expect.
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Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21698 |
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Thanks 3 bm.
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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That's a shame. Love to see him in a Straddie
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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Mornin' all.
Doubt he'll medal today but gotta love him.
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Brilliant horse and great post by Hawkes .. think Redzel has him covered today though
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Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
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God I hope he comes back and smashes them
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Magnolian Khan
Champion Joined: 23 Dec 2015 Location: SA Status: Offline Points: 8437 |
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Backing him
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