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Chautauqua

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djebel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 12:23pm
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 12:25pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

From  Racenet. For full story click the link:

Autumn options still under consideration for Chautauqua

Races under consideration for Chautauqua are the All Aged Stakes (1400m) at Randwick on Saturday week, the $1 million Group I Goodwood (1200m) in Adelaide next month or a defence of the Chairman's Sprint Prize in Hong Kong.



I noted with some mirth that Winx was mentioned (in passing it should be said) as a possible Everest starter on SSR this morning. That would leave 2 weeks to get her right for CP3. Shocked

She's 3rd favourite.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Underground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 12:34pm
easily the best single race/meeting analysis I have seen on here Tontonan, thankyou. lol @ the people just shrugging it off like it's nothing, facts are facts, just because you don't agree with them doesn't mean they are incorrect. "using your eyes" isn't the best way to go about things, ever really. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 12:43pm
 "using your eyes" isn't the best way to go about things, ever really. 

Given the history of "eye witness" failure, the ability of the brain to fool the eyes and vice-versa I can mostly agree with that Undergrpound. However I can provide a few examples on a racetrack where seeing and believing (albeit along with a little knowledge) tells FAR more than stats ever can and has been profitable to me and probably many others at various times.  They all relate to track "bias" in some way and that's something which numbers will rarely if ever pick up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 12:58pm
How long should we marvel at what we saw before we ruin it with over analysis ?
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 1:15pm
I haven't criticized Chautauqua in any way. I have not considered his performance to be anything less than outstanding.  In fact, it is because of the outstanding nature of his performance that I have bothered to scrutinize it. Yet there is this reaction that seems to think that I am in some way or another undermining the quality of the horses performance.  

There is nothing particularly controversial about my analysis.  On a heavy track a Group 1 field of sprinters has broken fast.  There has been a contested lead that has forced the pace.  Toward the end of the race, as the result of the extertions of running hard on the heavy track the pace of the race has collapsed.  As the pace of the race has collapsed the entire field has been gathered up by Chautauqua who appears to have charged home from last to win on the line. I say 'appeared' because there is an optical illusion (or perhaps just a misperception) in every race that horses accellerate at the end of races when more often they are actually slowing down - and the horse that slows down slowest is often thought to be the horse that is charging.  It is an illusion that is indisputably exposed by the clock. But there is a reluctance to accept it.

There are two reasons why Chautauqua won the TJ Smith.  The first is because he was capable of doing what he did.  The second is because there was a pace collapse in front. The reason why other horses from the back did not come on in the same way is they were not Chautauqua.  Surely that is not so hard to understand. 

As I say I have the apparently mad idea that in every race the circumstances and dynamics of the race have as much bearing on the outcome of the race as the merit or ability of the horses.  My mad idea explains why the best horse does not win every race in turn but the best horse in the circumstances always does. Those that dismiss my mad idea must explain then why they are left scratching their heads looking at their ratings after each race wondering why it didn't result the way that it 'should'.  All I have done here is explain the circumstances and dynamics of the race and how they have contributed to the outcome of the race.  It does not detract from an outstanding performance, it explains it. 

But I get it.  People are upset because the spectacle that they enjoyed so much is being diminished by reason.  It's a buzz kill. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 1:27pm
I said here a year ago that Winx would beat Chaut in a Lightning Stakes, because she would be in front of him and he could not run her down. Am I wrong?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 1:41pm
Well I'm not upset Tontonan your brilliant breakdown of the TJ was an eye opener and I'm sure people who can read into this would agree, I am going to use a quote from your post to show how correct it can be . "My mad idea explains why the BEST horse does not win every race in turn, but the BEST horse in the circumstances does", never more has this theory been proven correct than in this years Australian Cup when Humidor beat Jameka
he sat back doing no work while she was attacked left right and centre and he beat her a head, but I digress keep up the good work Tontonan.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 2:12pm
Who knows Tlaz? Don't think either of them has ever gone near to cracking the 10secs for 200m as BC did, which is interesting but hardly a pointer to the qualities of Winx overall since she's not a short course champion.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 2:33pm
Thanks for the encouragement folks.  It is appreciated.

I don't know Tlaz but it would be fun finding out !  My gut feeling is that the grey would win.  

We know he can do this :

1. Chautauqua  14.47 (6) -   10.50 (5) - 10.30 (5) - 10.49 (5) - 11.26 (1) = 57.02 (600 in 32.05)  Good 3

That was the 2016 Lightning.  He ran 3 sub 11's from the 800 to the 200 and finished with an 11.26.  Those splits are Caviar like.

To my knowledge Winx has never broken 11.  Her best split that I know of was 11.08 in the 2016 Apollo on a Good track.   That suggests that once she's balanced she could probably break 11 - but three in a row ?  

I just don't think it is her caper.  Her thing is sustaining 11s, so she really comes into her own from 1400m.  One reason she has won 16 in a row is that Waller doesn't send her over distances where she would be vulnerable - and I reckon she'd be vulnerable at 1000m.  

She might break faster than the grey but once Chautauqua finds his feet, as the above splits show, he can really burn and keep burning. 

1200m would be interesting.  1400m and I am on the mare.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 2:47pm
I had a very quick (NB) look at both their sectional abilities too Tontonan.

Warwick Stakes (2016?) she ran 10.98 10.64 11.05 for the last 600m.

Don't think Chau is capable of those numbers you wrote above in his "middle" age but at his earlier peak you'd have to be on him against Winx over 1000m ten times out of ten and over 1200m at least nine out of ten.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 2:48pm
Yep I have a couple too...

10.84 & 10.68 in a Warwick Farm 1100m race as a 2YO on 4 June 2014

10.88 in the 2015 Theo Marks 1300m 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote brave_ponies Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 2:49pm
Just wanted to add thanks to Tontonan. Analysis is usually way over my head - just show me the horsies! - but I've found your posts here to be interesting and accessible. I've even watched replays since and knowing how the race was run made the win even more special to see. (I might even pick the winner one day. )
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 3:16pm
All pales in comparison to Black Caviar's sustained speed in the Newmarket carrying 57kgs (58 with vest)

13.75  10.64 10.30 10.27 10.65  11.75  = 1.07.36 (fastest ever on the rebuilt track if I'm not mistaken)

That 800m split of 41.86  has her travelling at close to 70kph if my quick arithmetic is accurate (???)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Formerly Kincsem Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 4:29pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

 "using your eyes" isn't the best way to go about things, ever really. 

Given the history of "eye witness" failure, the ability of the brain to fool the eyes and vice-versa I can mostly agree with that Undergrpound. However I can provide a few examples on a racetrack where seeing and believing (albeit along with a little knowledge) tells FAR more than stats ever can and has been profitable to me and probably many others at various times.  They all relate to track "bias" in some way and that's something which numbers will rarely if ever pick up.

"They all relate to track "bias" in some way and that's something which numbers will rarely if ever pick up"

Disagree. I think track bias can be mathematically dissected with technology such as Trackus. I'm sure there must be computer betting operations who have a massive advantage from dissecting sectionals within certain parts of the track. If not, they should be.

The greatest punters of all time knew little about racing, they were an Actuary working for an insurance company and a mathematician.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 4:58pm
So do those actuaries walk the track to find the fast lanes, now that would be interesting.
or have I got the bull by the horns.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 6:19pm
Trackus is a pup imo - or I should say the extra distance measurement is. It will take years of stats before anything useful can be made of it imo, and even then I'd be surprised if it showed anything significantly useful. 

The important thing wrt the "bias" I was talking about is that times and sectionals won't show it and the run won't have a flashing light on it. For example - and these are based on actual occurrences - wide runners at Doomben finishing on but out of the placings when nothing at all has figured in the finish taking that course. Another case which vividly sticks in my mind was in Melb where frontrunners were foundering. I found a horse (name escapes me now) which struggled into 4th or 5th against the trend, subsequently won next start at $6. I tipped it on a forum giving that as the reason.

The key is that the runs were all better than they looked on paper IF you paid close attention to the trends on the day. This advantage doesn't throw up lots of winners of course and they don't all win next start. You have to pick the eyes out of it by watching closely - preferably on the day in my case.

The most useful, missing tool imo is overhead shots. There appears no reason why drones couldn't be used to film races from above - other than complacency and additional cost.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Formerly Kincsem Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 6:44pm
Even without sectionals etc. I could probably get a good grasp of track bias after a number of races are run on any particular day.

I would just create a field position bias factor and tune it so that my predicted probabilities align closer with actual finishing positions. Would be tiny samples but probably much more scientific/accurate than purely going on gut feel.

You could also do the same with what lane a horse has down the straight and use both to get a good guide. The more races run on the day would make the factor more accurate.

If computer teams aren't doing this already I'd be very surprised. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Formerly Kincsem Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 6:46pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

So do those actuaries walk the track to find the fast lanes, now that would be interesting.
or have I got the bull by the horns.

Carioca, the bloke I'm referring too hardly watched a race let alone turned up to the track. Alan Woods.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Apr 2017 at 6:55pm
Originally posted by Formerly Kincsem Formerly Kincsem wrote:

Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

So do those actuaries walk the track to find the fast lanes, now that would be interesting.
or have I got the bull by the horns.


Carioca, the bloke I'm referring too hardly watched a race let alone turned up to the track. Alan Woods.

Mate I'm stuck in a time warp, too old for the tea leaf reading as such lol, but I must tell you I never seen Sinatra in concert but I still play his music if that's of any consequence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2017 at 2:04am
Cross fingers and hope ge goes to the All Aged
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2017 at 6:56pm
Apologies to the gallant grey for intruding on his thread but to add to the bias discussion above David Gately put together an amusing but informative report using the TJSmith as an example.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2017 at 7:37pm
WFA Doomben Ten Thousand for this little champ I feel, more than likely weighted out of the Stradbroke.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2017 at 7:44pm
He's spelling for the Everest Carioca. Will have to have at least one run beforehand I'd expect.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2017 at 8:05pm
Thanks 3 bm.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2017 at 8:29pm
That's a shame. Love to see him in a Straddie
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Breeding Above All Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Sep 2017 at 1:23pm
Brilliant horse and great post by Hawkes .. think Redzel has him covered today though
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God I hope he comes back and smashes themHeart
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Backing him
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