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The Rough as Gutz thread |
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Bonfield 
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 Posted: 13 Jun 2015 at 10:44am |
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Had a nibble at S6 Phrases at $126. Recent runs poor, but may bob up on a firmer track.
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There off!
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Posted: 13 Jun 2015 at 10:49am |
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Agree re Phrases. Miss Cheers has a habit of producing a mammoth priced winner in the city.
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Group 1 Selections
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Posted: 13 Jun 2015 at 11:25am |
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Bagman @21.00
Sinjoren @ 41.00 Catseye Surprise @ 25.00 One Inch Punch @ 15.00 Fast Approaching @ 26.00 Troupers Mill @ 101.00 Sammie Jain @ 26.00 |
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goldey
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Posted: 13 Jun 2015 at 2:16pm |
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STRONG VALUES IN PERTH TODAY .
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subastral
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Posted: 13 Jun 2015 at 4:44pm |
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Had a cheeky fiver at $41 on your tip. Very well played!! |
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Gay3
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Posted: 13 Jun 2015 at 5:01pm |
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Superb thread this one, if they're there, there's a big chance one of you'll find them
 marble 
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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marble
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Posted: 13 Jun 2015 at 5:15pm |
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thanks gay and subbie - big day for me. bonfield beat me at the odds 60-1!
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Tuft_it_Tees
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Posted: 13 Jun 2015 at 5:28pm |
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 Takes a very big sample of roughies to get a worthwhile, reliable picture, unless you factor in the place as well, which gives a better indication, more quickly.
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Heavy10
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Posted: 19 Jun 2015 at 12:49pm |
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Gold Coast Race 4 Yulong baby $21/$6
This is a great chance, drew carpark in Oaks and got a seriously bad ride, never given a chance to get in the race, hit the line really well. Barrier 5 tomorrow, few weeks off between runs which is perfect dropping back to 1800m. Very confident it will run a great race!
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ozberry
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Posted: 19 Jun 2015 at 3:00pm |
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Final Crescendo/ race 8 Gold Coast 35/1
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Tempt Me Not
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Posted: 19 Jun 2015 at 4:11pm |
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Put $10 each way on Bossy's ride Cash Appraisal at $51 fixed.
$20 on Sang Choi Bao at $17 fixed & just put $30 each way on Use the Lot with J.Berriman at $26 fixed. think this is one of the better roughies for the day as he gets down to 52.5kgs and wont know himself. has won at the track and over the distance... also had $20 each way on West South West in the same race. elsewhere, i had a nibble at mr good cat in the last at Morph. has a decent 2nd up record and any give in the track is a bonus, still getting $21
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Gooree Stud
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Tempt Me Not
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Posted: 19 Jun 2015 at 4:21pm |
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forgot to add the roughest of the lot
randwick r8. lauries love $67 & $16. track probably against but winona on and claiming down to 52 is worth a few bob each way. has won 9 of 43 so fair strike rate. i remember being on him when he won at canberra carrying a stack of weight at paid $32. formline is pretty good too as mydream won again this week - wednesday i think? definitely not a 60-1 pop in my book
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Gooree Stud
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Heavy10
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Posted: 19 Jun 2015 at 4:36pm |
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Gold Coast R4 Yulong Baby $21/$6
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James Bond Esq
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Posted: 19 Jun 2015 at 7:10pm |
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pathways in the 5th at money valley
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grumpyoldman
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Posted: 19 Jun 2015 at 9:19pm |
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Decision Time in the winter dash... $21/6. Form looks horrible but look at the rest of the field.... Clarrie apparently has faith he can nurture this 7yo back to form this prep..
Not too rough but Office Bearer $13/4 at third run in might surprise in the last at gold coast |
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Posted: 19 Jun 2015 at 9:27pm |
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Dr E
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 2:18am |
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Gee guys, this is the Rough As Gutz thread, not the Almost Warm Favourites!!!
I was too embarrassed to post Bon Rocket in here as a roughie last week because he was only $19, and you're posting 10/1 and 12/1 chances!!! Maybe we need a "Mid" Rough thread for say >$10 <$20 that are overs ... or as i call them "too short for me!"
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Platinum
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 5:50am |
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2nd that and nothing against anyones tips or g1 personally as i always appreciate them but surely naming 21 roughies is going beyond any confidence in them level and into lottery numbers
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 7:25am |
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It's actually an auto selector that takes anything over $10 and runs a very nice profit (results could be seen in an old thread I shut down in the tipping forum) it runs at about 10%SR long term over the last 3 years and 2000 bets (bit better then lotto) so of the above there should be at least 2.1 winners with average odds between $19-$25 plus takings from place divs. But understand this is a fun thread not a money making thread so I will re post with the bets with the 1-3 star confidence rating that are $25.00+ |
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 7:52am |
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Dr E
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 8:11am |
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Hey G1S, I was tongue in cheek! ... I wont be throwing back any of your $10 winners because they're too small!!! ... I'm always interested in what you post ... Cheers!
...and now here are my "Best Guesses" ... Good Luck all!
Some nice chances this week at tantalizing prices ... and some are RRRRuff!  Sydney R3 #1 Planet Purple $11 - our old mate drops back to his right grade again, and even with a hefty weight, should just be too strong for these. I know the price is prohibitively short, so a Quinella with7. Soviet Courage should see a nice healthy R.O.I. R5 #4. Bascule $21 - this fellow showed some flashes of ability early doors, but due to his recalcitrance, was dealt the "unkindest cut of all" before resuming from a recent spell. Disappointed both runs back, but third up for Waller with G.Schofield piloting is generally a good combo. Hopefully he's got used to carrying less "weight" now he's a couple of stones lighter!  R6 #4. Decision Time $26 - the old boy would be giving this field 5 or 6 kgs and a trouncing in his hey day ... if he still has it, today's the day to show it! On a testing track, in a winnable race, will also have something on # 9. Timeless Prince $15 - gets in well with the claim, has good wet form, and has won handily out to 1500m. Should be nice race for some exotics with 3,6,10 in the mix for me. R8 #2. Keep Cool $21 - typical High Chap who handles all going and is best at around 2000m. Only needs to find some of his form of last winter, when he was placed in a Hawkesbury Gold Cup behind Leebaz, and won a 2000m race here beating a handy field including Excess Knowledge and I'm Imposing. Perfect credentials for a wet Randwick mile against inferior opposition. Melbourne R6 # 8. Lightenuff $34 - 7 yo gelding who relishes the sting out out of the ground. Hasn't had these track conditions since last winter, and he put some useful runs together then, including a win and a placing over 2040m here. May find this short of his best distance too, but reunited with winning jock, the price is right to find out!  R8 #10. Strike The Stars $101 - $151 was bet, and the loyal followers have piled in ... good luck to them, if he wins, they are probably still behind! Still one of the most promising horses in training, and the set of duck eggs he has ac***ulated of late IS impressive! However, many of those have been in much stronger races than this, and by virtue of the fact that he is still a Class 3 galloper, he gets into this mediocre affair with no weight, and a nice barrier. With a new trainer and environment, and a couple of hurdle trials under his belt, it might just be the making of him ... or he could just munch some more money and add another duck egg to his tally ...  R9 #10. Sea Lord $19 - has mixed it with the best sprinters over the journey and normally finds a winnable race each prep. Goes well here with 4 victories at this t/d and wet or dry doesn't matter. Tough race with lots of possibilities, but he seems well placed and a live hope. Cold Toast R1 # 11. Round Mountain Gal $41 - this is pretty much a provincial field, and this girl has just about as much credentials as most of the others, who mostly have form around each other. She has a solid record 15:4-3-2, but importantly, she's a winner and runner up from 2 here, and her Soft form reads 6:2-1-2. May not win, but the price is wrong. R3 # 7. The Umbrella Man $34 - just intrigued by the name! Only start was $2.20 to $2.60 fav., so must have shown someone something!? Just an even run reported for 5th. Draws the gun alley and T. Bell goes on ... I don't know anything more, except it IS called gambling, so step right up!  R4 # 15. Lucoblu $51 - Former Kiwi who's form over there was acceptable, culminating in a Stakes 4th to Werther at 2100m. Since coming to the Coast, has had 2 runs which have had merit. Should be able to possie forward from barrier 3 and hopefully give some cheek  R5 # 2. Jetset Lad $11 - that's right! He goes in against a weaker field after saluting at $41 for uslast time, and they give us 10/1 ... gotta be happy with that!!!  ... Ok, it's not that rough, so what we do is take him all up into ...R6 # 6. Surpass $13 - so now we get $143 for the double - this bloke has webbed feet and a bill, I swear! Has been crying out for a wet track and this distance, and it all comes together for him here. Draws well, T.Bell retains the ride, and with no stars to beat here, just go and line up to collect!  |
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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marble
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 8:52am |
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have to agree with surpass - best bet of the day
best roughie - addictive habit race 5, can improve sharply here with the sting out , good marble and the sharp drop in weight , 25-1 is good value
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room for a slew
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 10:57am |
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Agree the umbrella man best roughie.
was on it first up and disappointed. Extra distance and race experience will suit |
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Bonfield
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 11:12am |
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S8: Pythagorean ($51) Ready for an improved run
B6: Bachelor Zeel ($51) Bred to run the trip and handle the wet. Good NZ trainer. Was improved run last start B7: Hazard ($21) Why is she this price? Underrated mare. B8: Final Crescendo ($31) Not shown a lot this time in but has ability and handles wet
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Heavy10
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 1:35pm |
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$21 into $11...come on baby
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Tempt Me Not
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 5:07pm |
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thought west south west had got there... still good odds the place
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Gooree Stud
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Gay3
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 5:23pm |
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I'm pretty sure someone tipped Sea Lord too
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Dr E
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Posted: 20 Jun 2015 at 11:55pm |
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A couple of those 5th's had a bit of luck in the run we would have been Whooping it up big time!!!  From the posts above, some fun and an overall good day for those looking for value ... well done
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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marble
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Posted: 21 Jun 2015 at 12:24pm |
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I hope some of you got on. I ended up with 20-1. Started 8. good old kiwi plunge!
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Dr E
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Posted: 21 Jun 2015 at 3:18pm |
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Well done marble, and taking nothing away, but if you watch it again, you will have to admit that Jetset Lad was a good thing beaten .. the old boy is flying since they put him over some ground!
... do love a good ole kiwi plunge though, and if I wasn't elsewhere, I probably would have saved on him.
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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