Go to Villagebet.com.au for free horse racing tips - Click here now |
|
Champion racemare-Broodmare Flop |
Post Reply | Page <1234> |
Author | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16917 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I'm a big proponent of winning grand-daughters of champions producing the goods.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45811 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tend to agree, however numbers come into it also.
Mare A has eight foals, four of whom are fillies B, C, D and E. Total opportunity in 1st generation (sons and daughters): 8 Mares B, C, D and E have eight foals each, four of whom are fillies F, G, H and I. Total opportunity in 2nd generation (grandsons and granddaughters): 32 And so it goes on. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Isaac soloman
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2015 Status: Offline Points: 6085 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
And isnt that the "fun" of racing?
Making that right choice? At least if the blood is there the odds are there in the first place. As someone said if it were that easy we'd all be millionaires.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Isaac soloman
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2015 Status: Offline Points: 6085 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Take the Perth race filly Mia Dolce; 14 race starts as a 2 year old and $200,000, bought for 2k.
Doesnt that make you want to look at her page to see where "it" may be coming from? |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Likewise SC look at all the grandaughters who end up in Asia. Or get served by rubbish stallions with whom they have no hope of getting a winner.
Mia Dolce is the Manto female line and that is still very viable for getting winners. Much better to pick one breed like she is than lots who have no chance of being a city winner. Even her damsire was a good horse who really served next to nothing. While the sire is a winning 1/2 to Exceed and Excel who also doesn't get big books but is probably better than half the sires getting bigger books anyway.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Isaac soloman
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2015 Status: Offline Points: 6085 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mia Dolces fifth grandam is Tristabelle great grand dam of Dance Hero.https://www.bloodstock.com.au/bloodstock/broodmare/st-martha-1#zBgARePd3qBdBCjW.97
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Yes but still goes back to Manto. Still a great family and the first official throughbred mare into Australia. Nice to see the lines can survive.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
diomed
Champion Joined: 16 Nov 2016 Location: Roscrea Status: Offline Points: 649 |
Post Options
Thanks(2)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In The Bloodstock Breeders' Review 1913 annual J B Robertson had two articles on the subject.
................................................................................... Dams of 189 Classic winners 1862-1913 Never ran 14.8%; Ran but no form 13.2%; Showed moderate form 20.6%; Fair winners 25.4%; Good winners 13.8%; High class race mares 12.2% From those percentages it might look like mares with no form, little form, moderate form performed as well as high class race mares in producing classic winners. ................................................................................... This was the classification of a random sample of 1,000 mares Never ran 36.5%; Ran but no form 29.5%; Showed moderate form 14.5%; Fair winners 16.6%; Good winners 2.5%; High class race mares 0.4% You can see that a tiny percentage of top race mares 0.4% produced 12.2% of classic winners. ................................................................................... Comments in the article "high class race mares were 30 times as frequent in the dams of classic winners as in thoroughbred mares in general" "72% of the aristocracy of the turf, we see, are from mares that showed some sort of form, and over 50% are from mares which had considerable racing ability, and 26% from mares which had great racing ability." ................................................................................... ................................................................................... More from J B Robertson In the 1912 Bloodstock Breeders Review J B Robertson categorised sires into sprinters (PP), intermediate (PR), stayers (RR) and stated that a sprint sire could only produce a sprinter (PP) or an intermediate (PR) foal, a stayer (RR) could only produce an intermediate (PR) or a staying (RR) foal, and an intermediate sire (PR) and an intermediate dam (PR) would produce sprinters (PP), intermediates (PR) and stayers (RR) in the ratio 1:2:1. Have we heard this recently? Yes, we now have DNA testing to tell us something that was deduced over 100 years ago.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Be interesting to see a 2019 study. 1913 was a while ago. I'm fairly sure there was a more recent study which was probably posted somewhere on this forum but I can't find it. But memory tells me it had the same outcome.
Only doubt is that it may have referenced same study. In 1913 the pool of broodmares was a lot smaller than now. Plus I'm fairly sure that breeders were more selective than now. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
diomed
Champion Joined: 16 Nov 2016 Location: Roscrea Status: Offline Points: 649 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How do runner ratings compare with their sire and dam ratings?
The rating used is the career rating (3yo+) and is the top of (xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, xxxx) 1) There is a very, very strong relationship between filly runner ratings and their dam's rating 2) There is a strong relationship between colt runner ratings and their dam's rating 3) The relationship between colt runner ratings and their sire ratings are strong, just not as strong RatingxRatingxAllxColtsxGeldingsxFilliesxColtsxColtsxGeldingsxGeldingsxFilliesxFillies BandxAveragexAllxMxGxFxSirexDamxSirexDamxSirexDam 130+x130x697x634x2x61x131.73x106.1x124.5x0x132.93x114 125-129x127x677x590x18x69x129.5x104.86x123.2x86x129.5x100.1 120-124x122x1455x1079x143x233x128.24x97.69x124.02x89.12x128.7x100.43 115-119x117x3270x2130x441x699x127.15x92.8x122.97x89.56x127.86x98.42 110-114x112x4890x2491x1046x1353x126.67x92.75x124.45x88.76x126.51x96.03 105-109x107x7130x2946x1839x2345x126.03x93.56x124.19x89.24x125.87x92.52 100-104x102x8523x3038x2412x3073x124.87x92.46x123.79x87.1x125.69x92.68 95-99x97x8785x2799x2768x3218x124.62x91.13x123.83x84.6x125.14x91 90-94x92x8987x2654x3144x3189x124.7x91.05x124.04x84.28x124.95x89.51 85-89x87x9731x2464x3818x3449x124.84x90.85x124.24x82.7x125.18x88.6 80-84x82x10753x2399x4334x4020x124.79x89.99x124.16x82.86x125.18x86.48 75-79x77x11769x2284x4940x4545x124.46x87.61x123.79x81.26x124.85x85.37 70-74x72x11586x1932x4836x4818x123.86x86.32x123.29x79.75x124.58x83.49 65-69x67x10967x1611x4652x4704x123.74x87.37x122.69x78.44x124.02x81.04 60-64x62x9788x1240x4076x4472x123.31x83.94x122.41x75.6x123.51x80.07 55-59x57x8551x962x3482x4107x123.14x85.08x122.44x75.47x122.59x77.01 50-54x52x6960x755x2758x3447x122.5x81.03x121.52x72.72x122.27x75.26 45-49x47x5428x590x2013x2825x122.38x87.03x121.66x72.61x121.44x73.91 40-44x42x3275x326x1196x1753x121.85x80.58x120.75x72.59x120.8x72.63 35-39x37x2044x210x744x1090x122.28x92.28x122.33x73.39x121.7x74.29 30-34x32x1333x128x487x718x121.06x89x118.65x64.93x119.91x72.37 25-29x27x822x100x275x447x120.11x74.22x119.66x73.83x121.21x73.59 20-24x22x543x69x184x290x123.6x84.33x119.58x76.33x121.81x77.21 15-19x17x399x57x134x208x122.58x87.86x120.16x76.72x121.6x74.06 10-14x12x316x36x117x163x125.43x96.25x121.46x74.91x120.74x77.1 05-09x7x214x17x81x116x121.71x71.5x121.22x73.83x121.61x78.63 01-04x2x330x23x69x238x111.22x64.33x117.75x74.22x123.48x66.58 00xnot rated >x201060x45577x39x155444xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxx xx340283x79141x50048x211094x123.9x88.2x122.3x76.3x124.2x84.2 This is an exercise with ratings up to about 2015, but many of the ratings used are decades old. If you post the above data into Excel and do /Data/Text to Columns/Delimited and use x as a field separator you should get 12 columns of data showing horse ratings in bands (e.g. 01-04; 05-09; 10-14 all the way up to 125-129; 130+). You will see a very strong relationship between the dam rating and the foal rating, the higher the dam rating the higher the foal rating. But there is a lot of variation. The data sample is large to even out these variations. Sample was 340,283 horses, but only 139,223 had both a foal, sire, dam rating so the table above is for 139,223 rated runners i.e. 201,060 did not have the three ratings "foal, its sire, its dam" for various reasons e.g. many dams are unraced, or raced in a country where it is difficult to get ratings.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
diomed
Champion Joined: 16 Nov 2016 Location: Roscrea Status: Offline Points: 649 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The interesting area to investigate is why does one dam produce high rated, medium rated, and low rated foals during their breeding career.
I think it is the choice of stallions. Of course a stallion like Galileo will tend to produce better offspring, but not to the extent that people believe. Advertising lets you know about his Derby winners, but you will not see an advertisement listing lesser runners: Burning Desire (25), Castelli (45), Courtileo (47), Dynamo (35), Fire Spinner (43), Flea Cheoil (44), Galicuix (42), Golden Touch (11), Greca (48), Imperial Throne (48), Lamha Suas (32), Medicean Star (28), Rajaratna (18), Rhett Butler (42), River Beau (40), Scene Of The Crash (28), Skyphos (29), Solar Outburst (15), Space And Time (48), Spring Fashion (48), Stroll In The Park (45), Sun Seeker (49), Take It All Back (9), Telescopic (45), Twin Focus (44), Vero (48). I am a fan of inbreeding / linebreeding. A while back I was asked what I thought of a stallion. My guess was the person asking was either (1) planning to use the stallion (2) was connected to the stallion and wanted a favourable opinion from me. I do not have opinions on stallions. The stallion had about 150 foals with a foal rating, the sire rating (subject stallion), and dam rating. My first comment was that the foals from that stallion averaged about 11 rating points less than their dams, not what you want if you send a mare to a stallion. I then calculated the difference between each foal rating and its dam rating i.e. how much did that sire improve the dam (or otherwise). A few foals were rated 40 or more rating points above their dam (what you want), and many were 40 or more rating points worse than their dam. Imagine sending a 100 rated dam to a 130 rated sire and getting a foal that runs to a 45 rating. The two highest rated foals i.e. the biggest rating gainers above their dams, both had the same pedigree feature. They had horse in their dam's pedigree that was a full sibling of a horse in the pedigree of that less than successful sire. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tontonan
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2007 Status: Offline Points: 3898 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
One mare always overlooked is Wakeful.
Her son (x St Alwyne) Night Watch won the 1918 Melbourne Cup. Another son Blairgour (x Wallace) won the 1911 Oakleigh Plate and Futurity Stakes double. Another son Baverstock (x Maltster only won one race but sired the grand stayer David. One factor that always fouls the figures is that champion race mares generally get to meet the best sires which would greatly improve their chances of throwing a good winner. More routine race mares don't have the same advantage. ( Wallace and Maltster were both champion racehorses and sires. St Alwyne was a well bred English stallion who was also sire of 1929 Melbourne Cup winner Poitrel and the champion mare Lady Medallist ) |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diomed Thanks for that. Some good thought provoking comments. Excuse my ignorance but what are the dam ratings you refer to. Is it your own system or some industry standard a novice like me is unaware of? |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Breeder
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 802 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Clive Harper wrote a book published in 2003 called " The Thoroughbred Broodmare Book".
He took the broodmare of the year from around 1987 - 1996 for the USA, UK, Australia and NZ ( the time period varied slightly for each country) and he analysed the pedigrees of their progeny to try to find features that explained why they were good race horses. (NB this was a time when Clive was into looking quite deeply or way back in the pedigrees). Worth reading if you can get a copy.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
kavg
Champion Joined: 08 Jun 2009 Status: Offline Points: 3993 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Very informative Diomed, Thanks
Can you tell us who the 2 highest rated foals were-ie. biggest rating gainers , as you called them. Shrunk, I don't want to answer for diomed but I'm pretty sure he means the rating the dam had when she raced.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Shrunk in the Wash
Champion Joined: 25 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 9890 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Thanks Kav, I thought that may be the case but then I thought he may have calculated his own formula for such a thing. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
diomed
Champion Joined: 16 Nov 2016 Location: Roscrea Status: Offline Points: 649 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diomed
Thanks for that. Some good thought provoking comments. Excuse my ignorance but what are the dam ratings you refer to. Is it your own system or some industry standard a novice like me is unaware of? In the early 1990 I wrote a database program to calculate the Dosage Index (an index that gives an idea of speed / stamina in a horse), but that program did not tell me the class of a horse. In an attempt to assess class I wrote a program to analyse inbreeding in the first six generations of a pedigree. Again the results were disappointing, and I realised over time that all the horses I was analysing were top performers (Group race winners) - too little contrast. I need to collect bad horses, and the only easy way to tell a good horse from a bad horse is by using ratings. It was a massive undertaking collecting all those ratings from the internet and from my 1,000+ books. I used ratings from nine different sources, probably incompatible with each other. If a rating source rates a horse 20 you know it is poor. I just needed a general idea of the quality of each horse. I took the highest rating I could find for 3yo and older e.g if there were ratings: The dam rating I refer to is the running rating of the dam as described in the line above. The same for the foal (in its running career) and sire - it is the running rating as described above. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
diomed
Champion Joined: 16 Nov 2016 Location: Roscrea Status: Offline Points: 649 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Very informative Diomed, Thanks
Can you tell us who the 2 highest rated foals were-ie. biggest rating gainers , as you called them. I sent you a message.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
diomed
Champion Joined: 16 Nov 2016 Location: Roscrea Status: Offline Points: 649 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Breeder
I was lucky to buy books from Jack Glengarry Racing Services, New Zealand, in the early 1990s, and have all the Clive Harper books (except Pattern of Patterns in Thoroughbred Pedigrees). Much of what I have done was an attempt to prove with a bigger sample what Clive Harper and Harold Hampton already proved. I tend to do the work in the winter months, gathering data in the summer. A tricky problem I think I solved is how to separate the influence of one type of inbreeding from another in a pedigree. I think full siblings are the best type of inbreeding, but they are often found in a pedigree with other inbreeding, for example, three sons of a duplicated sire, and possibly a son and daughter of another duplicated sire. How do you work out the pure value of the full sibling inbreeding, or how do you work out how much negative effect the three sons of the duplicated sire is dragging down the rating? |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Breeder
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: New Zealand Status: Offline Points: 802 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I first started getting into reading / researching horse breeding after reading Jack's weekly columns in a NZ racing paper in the 80s. Like you I went onto buying many books from his shop.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
reductio ad absurdum
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 52012 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Isaac soloman
Champion Joined: 13 Oct 2015 Status: Offline Points: 6085 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Scales of Justice, Dual Choice 5th generation dam.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21830 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Lovely mare Isaac , I saw a lot of her , by Showdown, trained at Geelong by "Nooka" White who was a breaker ,was given to break in and finished up with her , twists and turns of racing.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17413 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bumping this for the Melody Belle thread
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Surely it has been established that high class mares are far more likely to throw good horses than low class mares ?
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
reductio ad absurdum
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Well Melody Belle is another from the Manto female line so let's hope she continues the line.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kimberley Mine
Champion Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Status: Offline Points: 1517 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bumping this -- there are so few Gr-1 races and so few opportunities relative to good racehorses that it's impossible to separate statistical signal from noise. On top of that, mares have relatively few chances to produce a champion anyway, and all it takes is one bad day in the paddock for a mare's best progeny so far to never race (Zenyatta's War Front filly comes to mind). All it takes is one superstar to eliminate any chance a well-bred filly has of being a Gr-1 winner, or her foals being Gr-1 winners. Sister Madly is a good example...she clearly had Gr-1 talent, she just kept running into More Joyous. Beaded didn't get her Gr-1 win until Black Caviar retired. But for Sunline, Zaroyale and Gentle Genius would have been a Gr-1 winners.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15512 |
Post Options
Thanks(2)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Majority of people are incapable of understanding probabilities, that is why more people fear the flight than the drive to the airport and also why there are so many lotteries.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
brogers
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Location: Lexington, KY Status: Offline Points: 1106 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Manto hails from the Bruce Lowe family #18 by stud book records. It has a few errors in it, and an interesting story I can share here.... By in large, by mitchondrial sequencing, the family is well conserved, with most of the ancestry tracing to the same haplotype L2b1. This is the same mtDNA haplotype as a branch of the 5 family (Politeness, etc), almost all of the 14 family (that itself is pretty well conserved) and also a branch of the 2-d, where there is a more modern error. All these "families" actually trace back to one mare, that pre-dates stud book entries (this is why anyone using Lowe numbers to breed or classify the thoroughbred is wasting their time...heaps of these "families" are from the same mare in reality). Manto, or at least her ancestry is actually an error herself. While most of the #18 family is L2b1, we have six samples from that branch, that all trace to Flora McIvor (1828) where we suspect an error has occured. We have mtDNA samples from: Miss Admiration - tail female to Flora McIvor via her daughter Waimea (1857) through daughter Raupo A Real Princess - tail female to Waimea via a different daughter in Wai-iti Loving Gaby - tail female to Flora McIvor via a different daughter in Io (1855) Angel Gift - tail female to Io via a different daughter than Loving Gaby is. These are all the N2 haplotype, not the L2b1 haplotype like the rest of the #18 family. But here is the mystery.....we have 5 samples from the "Belle" family. All 5 of these are L2b1 haplotype... If you look at the record of Flora McIvor, she was exported to New Zealand in 1854. All her lineage after that (e.g offspring that trace to daughters of her born after export in 1854) are N2 haplotype. The exception is ironically the "Belle Family" that is L2b1, but that traces back to Emily (1840) a filly out of Flora McIvor that was born before her dam's export to New Zealand. Our suspicion of course is that the wrong mare got on the boat to New Zealand. What we can certainly say from mtDNA is that the Flora McIvor that arrived in NZ in 1854, isnt the Flora McIvor that foaled Emily in 1840. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Abel Tasman...Keen Ice...Divisidero....Verrazano...Catchy...Carrick...Ivictory...
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post Reply | Page <1234> |
Tweet |
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum |