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Climate Change - Global Warming..

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Dr E View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 4:05pm
Beer
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Is Doc still here?



Odd comment PT Confused


I saw he was inappropriate yesterday and warned of a permanent ban. I didn't see a sea of pink crayon text today and thought the worst.

Glad to hear he is once again and again a reformed character. Thumbs Up

I reckon they should open up a kindy thread,and restrict him to that.
He can use his crayons, offend who he likes,and we can all continue on,without the childish distractions.

You're leaving!!???Big smilePartyBeer ... please don't tease us!
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 4:24pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

.. and please CNNPT, nobody is interested in why your circle jerk crowd refer to you as "The Second Coming" ... save that for a more appropriate holiday (if you can hold out that long).Tongue

lol you refer to that more than anyone else  X 10

obviously you enjoy them and can't stop thinking of them, whatever floats your boat Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 4:32pm
Pointless talking to Whale about the Second Coming , Doc

He's still on the queue for his first.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 4:32pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

.. and please CNNPT, nobody is interested in why your circle jerk crowd refer to you as "The Second Coming" ... save that for a more appropriate holiday (if you can hold out that long).Tongue

lol you refer to that more than anyone else  X 10

obviously you enjoy them and can't stop thinking of them, whatever floats your boat Wink

"The lady doth protest too much, methinks"Embarrassed

In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 4:41pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Is Doc still here?


Odd comment PT Confused

Too many of the "Useful Idiots" clogging this conversation I guess oneone ... wants me to add some intelligence to compliment your and macca's comments ... will do!

Here's One Global Warming Study Nobody Wants You To See


Settled Science: A new study published in a peer-reviewed journal finds that climate models exaggerate the global warming from CO2 emissions by as much as 45%. If these findings hold true, it's huge news. No wonder the mainstream press is ignoring it.

In the study, authors Nic Lewis and Judith Curry looked at actual temperature records and compared them with climate change computer models. What they found is that the planet has shown itself to be far less sensitive to increases in CO2 than the climate models say. As a result, they say, the planet will warm less than the models predict, even if we continue pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

As Lewis explains: "Our results imply that, for any future emissions scenario, future warming is likely to be substantially lower than the central computer model-simulated level projected by the (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and highly unlikely to exceed that level.

How much lower? Lewis and Curry say that their findings show temperature increases will be 30%-45% lower than the climate models say. If they are right, then there's little to worry about, even if we don't drastically reduce CO2 emissions.

The planet will warm from human activity, but not nearly enough to cause the sort of end-of-the-world calamities we keep hearing about. In fact, the resulting warming would be below the target set at the Paris agreement.

This would be tremendously good news ... for everyone but the Climate Alarmists and the UN Globalists and their Vested Interests.

The fact that the Lewis and Curry study appears in the peer-reviewed American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate lends credibility to their findings. This is the same journal, after all, that recently published widely covered studies saying the Sahara has been growing and the climate boundary in central U.S. has shifted 140 miles to the east because of global warming.

The Lewis and Curry findings come after another study, published in the prestigious journal Nature, that found the long-held view that a doubling of CO2 would boost global temperatures as much as 4.5 degrees Celsius was wrong. The most temperatures would likely climb is 3.4 degrees.

It also follows a study published in Science, which found that rocks contain vast amounts of nitrogen that plants could use to grow and absorb more CO2, potentially offsetting at least some of the effects of CO2 emissions and reducing future temperature increases.

Given that environmentalists want the U.S., along with the rest of the world, to spend trillions of dollars trying to cut down on CO2 emissions — based entirely on doom-and-gloom climate model forecasts — these findings are profoundly important.

But instead of taking Lewis and Curry's findings seriously, environmentalists and others in the "settled science" community simply dismiss them — or anyone else who fails to toe the climate line — as "deniers."

Lewis even has his own entry on a "Climate Denier List" web page, and Mother Jones labeled Curry a denier when she testified before Congress last year. (When IBD wrote about the nitrogen findings earlier this month, various climate scientists accused us of being misleading, not scientifically credible, and derogatory.)

Slapping a scarlet D on anyone who veers from environmentalist dogma is not science. It's a strong-arm tactic meant to squelch debate and impose scientific conformity.

The question now is: What will it take for the "settled science" crowd to stop trying to silence dissent and admit that maybe, just maybe, the science on global warming isn't so settled after all?

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/global-warming-computer-models-co2-emissions/


"I should probably say something about the new Lewis & Curry paper. It’s mostly an update to their earlier paper that I’ve discussed before. Bottom line; there are reasons to be cautious.

The basic formalism is that one can use an energy balance approach to estimate the transient climate response (TCR) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Given the change in forcing, \Delta F, the change in surface temperature \Delta T, and the change in system heat uptake rate, \Delta Q, we get

TCR = F_{2 \times CO2} \dfrac{\Delta T}{\Delta F},

and

ECS = F_{2 \times CO2}\dfrac{\Delta T}{\Delta F - \Delta Q},

where F_{2 \times CO2} is the change in forcing due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2.

If new estimates suggests that the change in forcing is slightly higher, and the change in system heat uptake rate is slightly lower, than previously thought, then the estimates for the TCR and ECS go down, which I think is the main difference between the new paper and the old one.

As I’ve already mentioned, there are reasons to be cautious about these results. One other issue I have with the Lewis and Curry result is that they suggest a TCR-to-ECS ratio of about 0.8, which I think is probably too high. Given the heat capacity of the oceans, and the current planetary energy imbalance, a ratio below 0.8 seems likely. I have wondered if there would be a way to incorporate this into the analysis, but it may not be straightforward.

However, a key problem with the Lewis & Curry approach, which Andrew Dessler has already discussed on Twitter, is that it essentially assumes that the one-dimensional energy-balance approach exactly represents what will happen. The implication is that if there is some change in planetary energy imbalance (or change in system heat uptake
ate), driven by some well-defined change in forcing, this will then lead to a very well-defined change in surface temperature.

The problem, as is discussed in this paper (Dessler, Mauritsen & Stevens) is that this isn’t correct. Internal variability confounds the relationship between changes in system heat uptake rate, and changes in surface temperature. In a sense, this is obvious. We know that the climate system is very complex and that the exact path that it follows depends on the state of the system. If you average over long enough timescales, this becomes less significant, but over periods of many decades, it can be reasonably substantial. We don’t expect that the relationship between change in surface temperature, change in forcing, and change in system heat uptake rate over a period comparable to that of the instrumental temperature record will exactly represent the long-term sensitivity of the system.

In a sense, Lewis & Curry are taking one realisation of reality and assuming that it is an exact representation of the typical response of the system. It probably isn’t. This doesn’t mean that climate sensitivity can’t be low (even mainstream estimates do not rule this out). It simply means that we should be cautious of assuming that it is low based on an estimate that can’t fully account for how internal variability may have influenced the path that we’ve actually followed."

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2018/04/27/lewis-and-curry-again/




An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 4:41pm
Do you have a favorite brand of lotion Doc, and do you prefer scented? What do the other boys prefer?

Doing research for an article.
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Whale View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 4:43pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Do you have a favorite brand of lotion Doc, and do you prefer scented? What do the other boys prefer?

Doing research for an article.

a late entry for the post of the year


LOLLOLLOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 4:47pm
There are hundreds of climatologists E doesn't like but one or two he's very keen on.Wink
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 4:52pm
Hahahahaha
Poor old Doc.

Where does he go to get the good oil on economic forecasting in Australia?
A publicly listed company with $15B in assets, or maybe the Australian Treasury?
Hahahahaha, no he prefers the musing of a mortgage broker from rural South Australia.

Where does he go for the good oil on climate change research?
The good old climate change deniers investor.com.......

Investor.com......the cutting edge of scientific research ( just as long as it confers with their deny,deny,deny philosophy)

Jeez Doc, that’s pretty bloody silly,even for the likes of you.

BTW still waiting for you to tell us all about your mentor Bushys investment qualifications.
You must have missed the previous dozen requests
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 5:00pm

The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity


An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 5:29pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

There are hundreds of climatologists E doesn't like but one or two he's very keen on.Wink

Well, no matter how many agree, they are ALL just theories, aren't they?Wink
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 5:34pm

Did You Know the Greatest Two-Year Global Cooling Event Just Took Place?


Would it surprise you to learn the greatest global two-year cooling event of the last century just occurred? From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era. All the data in this essay come from GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). This is the standard source used in most journalistic reporting of global average temperatures.

The 2016-18 Big Chill was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average. February 2018 was colder than February 1998. If someone is tempted to argue that the reason for recent record cooling periods is that global temperatures are getting more volatile, it's not true. The volatility of monthly global average temperatures since 2000 is only two-thirds what it was from 1880 to 1999.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2018/04/24/did_you_know_the_greatest_two-year_global_cooling_event_just_took_place_103243.html
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 5:45pm
So many times I've stated .    Facts can only be judged as such by solid evidence. That is what fails the poor souls who blindly make claims on Climate.
When the Climate Change victims can show us that evidence , they will be removed from the Delusional list.

   Mr Flannery has proven what fools they really are.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 5:47pm
Yep and brain surgeons get it wrong sometimes, but I wont be asking my plumber to have a look if I get the dreaded.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 5:48pm
Another August scientific journal......

Poor old doc, probably going to post his next climate denying article from an in flight magazine....
He just doesn’t understand that the source is important(like mortgage brokers insights into the economy)

Hey Doc, what were those investment qualifications that you relied upon,over and above the Australian Treasury?????
#Clueless
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 5:55pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Another August scientific journal......

Poor old doc, probably going to post his next climate denying article from an in flight magazine....
He just doesn’t understand that the source is important(like mortgage brokers insights into the economy)

Hey Doc, what were those investment qualifications that you relied upon,over and above the Australian Treasury?????
#Clueless

What's August got to do with it? Has the world warmed that much since then?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 5:55pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Yep and brain surgeons get it wrong sometimes, but I wont be asking my plumber to have a look if I get the dreaded.


True PT ...    lol ..      I don't have the heart to ask how much you suffered from them getting it wrong.    ...        ( I'm Yoking )
I recognise your skills .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 5:59pm
Originally posted by stayer stayer wrote:

Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Another August scientific journal......

Poor old doc, probably going to post his next climate denying article from an in flight magazine....
He just doesn’t understand that the source is important(like mortgage brokers insights into the economy)

Hey Doc, what were those investment qualifications that you relied upon,over and above the Australian Treasury?????
#Clueless

What's August got to do with it? Has the world warmed that much since then?


   I don't think Rusty sees much climate .

Behind a desk in air conditioning.

No change in my 85 years ...    AND my circulation picks it up easily now days.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 6:00pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Yep and brain surgeons get it wrong sometimes, but I wont be asking my plumber to have a look if I get the dreaded.

Yep, and we have "empirical evidence" of that - but I encourage them to do their "CNNPT Preaching and Praising" in the "Useful Idiots" thread, for their own safety.
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 6:05pm
Originally posted by stayer stayer wrote:

Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Another August scientific journal......

Poor old doc, probably going to post his next climate denying article from an in flight magazine....
He just doesn’t understand that the source is important(like mortgage brokers insights into the economy)

Hey Doc, what were those investment qualifications that you relied upon,over and above the Australian Treasury?????
#Clueless

What's August got to do with it? Has the world warmed that much since then?

Serious, or a poor joke?
Just in case....

adjective
respected and impressive.
"she was in august company"
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Looks like 2016 is the new 1998. Take a record year with a strong ENSO event, cherry pick your statistical start and end point and claim a “pause” or even “cooling”. Then claim this “analysis” is being ignored. Well, it’s being ignored for a very good reason.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 6:12pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by stayer stayer wrote:

Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Another August scientific journal......

Poor old doc, probably going to post his next climate denying article from an in flight magazine....
He just doesn’t understand that the source is important(like mortgage brokers insights into the economy)

Hey Doc, what were those investment qualifications that you relied upon,over and above the Australian Treasury?????
#Clueless

What's August got to do with it? Has the world warmed that much since then?

Serious, or a poor joke?
Just in case....

adjective
respected and impressive.
"she was in august company"

Just a poor joke, mate. I could just see you trying to think of a fancy word for "respected", and coming up with the capitalized month of August.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 6:22pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by stayer stayer wrote:

Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Another August scientific journal......

Poor old doc, probably going to post his next climate denying article from an in flight magazine....
He just doesn’t understand that the source is important(like mortgage brokers insights into the economy)

Hey Doc, what were those investment qualifications that you relied upon,over and above the Australian Treasury?????
#Clueless

What's August got to do with it? Has the world warmed that much since then?

Serious, or a poor joke?
Just in case....

adjective
respected and impressive.
"she was in august company"

Good Grief Embarrassed... back to the "Useful Idiots" thread rust ... no, in fact, I think we might have to create a thread just for you! ... You're welcome! 
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 6:40pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Hahahahaha
Poor old Doc.

Where does he go to get the good oil on economic forecasting in Australia?
A publicly listed company with $15B in assets, or maybe the Australian Treasury?
Hahahahaha, no he prefers the musing of a mortgage broker from rural South Australia.

Where does he go for the good oil on climate change research?
The good old climate change deniers investor.com.......

Investor.com......the cutting edge of scientific research ( just as long as it confers with their deny,deny,deny philosophy)

Jeez Doc, that’s pretty bloody silly,even for the likes of you.

BTW still waiting for you to tell us all about your mentor Bushys investment qualifications.
You must have missed the previous dozen requests

Hey Doc!

You must have missed this post.
Any ideas on his investment credentials?

Hint: it’s got as much to do with investment,as investor.com has to do with climate science.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 6:44pm
Originally posted by JudgeHolden JudgeHolden wrote:

Looks like 2016 is the new 1998. Take a record year with a strong ENSO event, cherry pick your statistical start and end point and claim a “pause” or even “cooling”. Then claim this “analysis” is being ignored. Well, it’s being ignored for a very good reason.

but, but, but ... the sea levels ... the polar bears ... the dams ... oh yes and the warming.

Don't worry, it's just a theory Judge.
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 6:53pm
High praise indeed Doc. Of course in general usage “theory” suggests speculative, whereas in the scientific realm theory (eg Evolution) refers to the most rigorous and comprehensive form of scientific knowledge.

Surprised you knew that.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 7:02pm
Originally posted by JudgeHolden JudgeHolden wrote:

High praise indeed Doc. Of course in general usage “theory” suggests speculative, whereas in the scientific realm theory (eg Evolution) refers to the most rigorous and comprehensive form of scientific knowledge.

Surprised you knew that.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory

Holy cow. This is possibly the most definitive post of the Pretentious Git that I've ever seen. Hard to top.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 7:07pm
Why stayer? Need it dumbed down a little? Course you do.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Dec 2018 at 7:10pm
Not sure how you can dumb it down more than wiki...
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That’s why, I had you in mind. Still don’t get it?
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