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Climate Change - Global Warming.. |
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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You're leaving!!??? ... please don't tease us!
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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lol you refer to that more than anyone else X 10 obviously you enjoy them and can't stop thinking of them, whatever floats your boat
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Pointless talking to Whale about the Second Coming , Doc
He's still on the queue for his first. |
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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"The lady doth protest too much, methinks" |
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31416 |
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"I should probably say something about the new Lewis & Curry paper. It’s mostly an update to their earlier paper that I’ve discussed before. Bottom line; there are reasons to be cautious. The basic formalism is that one can use an energy balance approach to estimate the transient climate response (TCR) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Given the change in forcing, , the change in surface temperature , and the change in system heat uptake rate, , we get , and , where is the change in forcing due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. If new estimates suggests that the change in forcing is slightly higher, and the change in system heat uptake rate is slightly lower, than previously thought, then the estimates for the TCR and ECS go down, which I think is the main difference between the new paper and the old one. As I’ve already mentioned, there are reasons to be cautious about these results. One other issue I have with the Lewis and Curry result is that they suggest a TCR-to-ECS ratio of about 0.8, which I think is probably too high. Given the heat capacity of the oceans, and the current planetary energy imbalance, a ratio below 0.8 seems likely. I have wondered if there would be a way to incorporate this into the analysis, but it may not be straightforward. However, a key problem with the Lewis & Curry approach, which Andrew Dessler has already discussed on Twitter, is that it essentially assumes that the one-dimensional energy-balance approach exactly represents what will happen. The implication is that if there is some change in planetary energy imbalance (or change in system heat uptakeate), driven by some well-defined change in forcing, this will then lead to a very well-defined change in surface temperature.
The problem, as is discussed in this paper (Dessler, Mauritsen & Stevens) is that this isn’t correct. Internal variability confounds the relationship between changes in system heat uptake rate, and changes in surface temperature. In a sense, this is obvious. We know that the climate system is very complex and that the exact path that it follows depends on the state of the system. If you average over long enough timescales, this becomes less significant, but over periods of many decades, it can be reasonably substantial. We don’t expect that the relationship between change in surface temperature, change in forcing, and change in system heat uptake rate over a period comparable to that of the instrumental temperature record will exactly represent the long-term sensitivity of the system. In a sense, Lewis & Curry are taking one realisation of reality and assuming that it is an exact representation of the typical response of the system. It probably isn’t. This doesn’t mean that climate sensitivity can’t be low (even mainstream estimates do not rule this out). It simply means that we should be cautious of assuming that it is low based on an estimate that can’t fully account for how internal variability may have influenced the path that we’ve actually followed." https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2018/04/27/lewis-and-curry-again/ |
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79532 |
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Do you have a favorite brand of lotion Doc, and do you prefer scented? What do the other boys prefer?
Doing research for an article.
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Whale
Champion Joined: 01 Jun 2009 Location: St Kilda Beach Status: Offline Points: 38719 |
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a late entry for the post of the year |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31416 |
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There are hundreds of climatologists E doesn't like but one or two he's very keen on.
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11386 |
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Hahahahaha
Poor old Doc. Where does he go to get the good oil on economic forecasting in Australia? A publicly listed company with $15B in assets, or maybe the Australian Treasury? Hahahahaha, no he prefers the musing of a mortgage broker from rural South Australia. Where does he go for the good oil on climate change research? The good old climate change deniers investor.com....... Investor.com......the cutting edge of scientific research ( just as long as it confers with their deny,deny,deny philosophy) Jeez Doc, that’s pretty bloody silly,even for the likes of you. BTW still waiting for you to tell us all about your mentor Bushys investment qualifications. You must have missed the previous dozen requests |
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31416 |
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The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity |
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An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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Well, no matter how many agree, they are ALL just theories, aren't they?
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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Did You Know the Greatest Two-Year Global Cooling Event Just Took Place?Would it surprise you to learn the greatest global two-year cooling event of the last century just occurred? From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era. All the data in this essay come from GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). This is the standard source used in most journalistic reporting of global average temperatures. The 2016-18 Big Chill was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average. February 2018 was colder than February 1998. If someone is tempted to argue that the reason for recent record cooling periods is that global temperatures are getting more volatile, it's not true. The volatility of monthly global average temperatures since 2000 is only two-thirds what it was from 1880 to 1999. https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2018/04/24/did_you_know_the_greatest_two-year_global_cooling_event_just_took_place_103243.html
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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So many times I've stated . Facts can only be judged as such by solid evidence. That is what fails the poor souls who blindly make claims on Climate.
When the Climate Change victims can show us that evidence , they will be removed from the Delusional list. Mr Flannery has proven what fools they really are. |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79532 |
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Yep and brain surgeons get it wrong sometimes, but I wont be asking my plumber to have a look if I get the dreaded.
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11386 |
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Another August scientific journal......
Poor old doc, probably going to post his next climate denying article from an in flight magazine.... He just doesn’t understand that the source is important(like mortgage brokers insights into the economy) Hey Doc, what were those investment qualifications that you relied upon,over and above the Australian Treasury????? #Clueless |
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21897 |
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What's August got to do with it? Has the world warmed that much since then? |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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True PT ... lol .. I don't have the heart to ask how much you suffered from them getting it wrong. ... ( I'm Yoking ) I recognise your skills . |
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I don't think Rusty sees much climate . Behind a desk in air conditioning. No change in my 85 years ... AND my circulation picks it up easily now days. |
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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Yep, and we have "empirical evidence" of that - but I encourage them to do their "CNNPT Preaching and Praising" in the "Useful Idiots" thread, for their own safety.
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11386 |
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Serious, or a poor joke? Just in case.... adjective respected and impressive. "she was in august company" |
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11728 |
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Looks like 2016 is the new 1998. Take a record year with a strong ENSO event, cherry pick your statistical start and end point and claim a “pause” or even “cooling”. Then claim this “analysis” is being ignored. Well, it’s being ignored for a very good reason.
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21897 |
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Just a poor joke, mate. I could just see you trying to think of a fancy word for "respected", and coming up with the capitalized month of August. |
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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Good Grief ... back to the "Useful Idiots" thread rust ... no, in fact, I think we might have to create a thread just for you! ... You're welcome!
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11386 |
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Hey Doc! You must have missed this post. Any ideas on his investment credentials? Hint: it’s got as much to do with investment,as investor.com has to do with climate science..... |
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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but, but, but ... the sea levels ... the polar bears ... the dams ... oh yes and the warming. Don't worry, it's just a theory Judge.
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11728 |
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High praise indeed Doc. Of course in general usage “theory” suggests speculative, whereas in the scientific realm theory (eg Evolution) refers to the most rigorous and comprehensive form of scientific knowledge.
Surprised you knew that. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory |
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21897 |
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Holy cow. This is possibly the most definitive post of the Pretentious Git that I've ever seen. Hard to top. |
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11728 |
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Why stayer? Need it dumbed down a little? Course you do.
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stayer
Champion Joined: 10 Aug 2010 Status: Offline Points: 21897 |
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Not sure how you can dumb it down more than wiki...
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11728 |
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That’s why, I had you in mind. Still don’t get it?
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