Go to Villagebet.com.au for free horse racing tips - Click here now
Forum Home Forum Home > All Sports - Public Forums > Joffs All Sports Bar
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - LNP government.
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login


Thoroughbred Village Home Page. For village news, follow @TBVillage on Twitter. For horseracing tips, follow @Villagebet on Twitter. To contact the Mayor by email: Click Here.


LNP government.

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 752753754755756 760>
Author
Message
Baghdad Bob View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 10 Feb 2010
Location: Victoria
Status: Offline
Points: 13595
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2019 at 10:17pm
I know who owns the Herald Sun, just as I know who owns The Age.
Back to Top
Whale View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 01 Jun 2009
Location: St Kilda Beach
Status: Offline
Points: 38719
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2019 at 11:06pm
Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

The Guardian, ABC & Fairfax Press ( now Nine News  ) ...left bias

Sky News & NewsCorp...right bias

I read the Herald Sun in Melbourne


yes but do you read any newspapers ?
Back to Top
Dr E View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 05 Feb 2013
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 28563
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 3:35am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Hey Doc, like you the far right wing looney Fibs have given up trying to beat Labor and are actively undermining their own party(nothing new thereWink) and are sandbagging right wing nutters for the internal wars ahead.

NSW Coalition ‘civil war’ erupts as Liberals sprung elevating Senator Jim Molan at polling booths

Liberal MP John Alexander has been caught on tape urging voters to ignore the Coalition ticket as part of a guerrilla campaign to save a Liberal senator.

The National Party is “ballistic” over the actions of Liberals across NSW to save the career of NSW Liberal Senator Jim Molan, who was relegated to an unwinnable fourth spot on the Coalition ticket.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is again being urged to intervene, amid predictions Senator Molan’s “rogue” campaign could jeopardise the election of the Nationals candidate in the third spot with a breach of the binding Coalition agreement.

The New Daily has obtained audio of Mr Alexander – the Member for Bennelong – at a pre-poll booth openly urging a voter to support Senator Molan, in a clear contravention of the Coalition’s offical Senate ticket. more...

http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/nsw/2019/05/14/nsw-coalition-civil-war-molan/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020190515


I voted for Jim below the line - isn't everyone doing that?Confused

screw Malcolm's mates!Big smile
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
Back to Top
Dr E View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 05 Feb 2013
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 28563
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 3:41am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Hypothetical for you Rusty. Apparently your the TBV guru on everything ALP (anyone would think you were a longtime staunch supporter). Lets say the cost of the average property in Sydney today is "X" dollars. Which means the average price 18mths ago was "X" dollars less 20% (or close enough). So if the ALP Property investment changes are brought in as expected - that you rave on about as being great - what do you predict housing prices to be in say 5 years ? Still "X" dollars - or "X" dollars plus 20% - just your best guess. The reason i ask is your stock standard reply is the last time they tinkered with negative gearing "boom times" followed. So what will be the measuring stick growth figure to judge who was right or wrong. So to summarise - whats your prediction of the average price of a house in the Sydney market in 5 years after the ALP have waived their magic wand for a while. We can revisit your predictions to see how it pans out

Good luck rusty - just guess mate, I'm sure oneone doesn't expect any justifications.

We all know that property markets only boom when Labor puts mpore tax imposition on investors, you know, like removing tax concessions ... rightWink
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
Back to Top
Dr E View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 05 Feb 2013
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 28563
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 3:43am
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Hypothetical for you Rusty. Apparently your the TBV guru on everything ALP (anyone would think you were a longtime staunch supporter). Lets say the cost of the average property in Sydney today is "X" dollars. Which means the average price 18mths ago was "X" dollars less 20% (or close enough). So if the ALP Property investment changes are brought in as expected - that you rave on about as being great - what do you predict housing prices to be in say 5 years ? Still "X" dollars - or "X" dollars plus 20% - just your best guess. The reason i ask is your stock standard reply is the last time they tinkered with negative gearing "boom times" followed. So what will be the measuring stick growth figure to judge who was right or wrong. So to summarise - whats your prediction of the average price of a house in the Sydney market in 5 years after the ALP have waived their magic wand for a while. We can revisit your predictions to see how it pans out

Hmmm,
Your losing your grip on reality.

Surely you meant prices 18 months ago were X + 20%
Not X -20%.

Secondly, I don’t rate these proposed changes as great.
I just have to say (repeatedly unfortunately) that the hysterical shrieking of impending Armageddon as a result of these changes are based on nothing.
What will prices be in 5 years time?

What will wages growth be?
What will interest rates be?
Unemployment rates?
GDP growth ?
Consumer confidence?

Give me the answers to the above,then I’ll tell you how house prices have moved.

Boooo! ... Have a go ya mug!Angry

You never let a little thing like facts get in the way before!!!LOLLOLLOL
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
Back to Top
Dr E View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 05 Feb 2013
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 28563
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 3:49am
Originally posted by Afros Afros wrote:

Have Sky mentioned that Bill will eat our babies yet maxie?

No, and they haven't even mentioned that he will rape our children ... strangely enough, nor have the ABC, Channel 9, Waleed, SMH, The Age, etc .... it's like it never happened, isn't it!Wink
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
Back to Top
Dr E View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 05 Feb 2013
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 28563
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 3:54am
Originally posted by Baghdad Bob Baghdad Bob wrote:

In the current election campaign the left side of politics has resorted to gutter politics.


A. Bill Shorten : baptized a Catholic, converted to an Anglican now is unsure whether there is a hell or not. To be a Christian you must believe there is a heaven and a hell. Knowing Morrison is a committed Christian, for political gain , Shorten  attempts to wedge Morrison by asking whether he believes gays, as the bible asserts, will finish up in hell. Only last week Shorten resorted to crocodile tears when he defended his mother over her academic background, yet lays into Morrison over his religious beliefs.What a grub.

B. Paul Keating : once the best politician to stand up on his feet , ad lib and make a mockery of any opposing argument. This aging, vindictive ex politician now resorts, whilst seated, to read from a prepared speech that Peter Dutton, is " the meanest person in Australian politics in 50 years and voters should drive a stake through Dutton's dark political heart at the election ". This has-been politician should be back at his home with his feet up on a couch enjoying his tax payer funded pension . As  letters in this morning's press wrote " isn't time Paul Keating to retire his arrogance and venomous tongue ? " and another " Keating get back in your box you only surface every three years."

C. Get Up: hold a meeting,in which the converted are encouraged to chant over and over "we will win "" we will win" . Somewhat similar to that religious sect of Jim Jones back in 1978.The only problem with that chanting Get Up is not standing one candidate at the election, make what you want of that. 

D. The Greens: still have on their website a photo of a carton of six eggs with names of politicians and media who identify of the right. Have they learnt noting that idiots of left have already egged two Australian politicians and without removing that photo they endorse egging . They talk about saving the planet yet encourage violence against their fellow man, what hypocrites.


The media interference for Bill is incredible BB.

He has not been asked a single question about his new First Home Buyer's Package that he adopted within 2 hours of knowing nothing about it, because he pooped his pants about Property Prices - yet they are badgering ScoMo about it because it might push property prices up? What?ConfusedLOL 
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 9:54am
My favorite bet option.


Back to Top
Shrunk in the Wash View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 25 Mar 2016
Status: Offline
Points: 9890
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 10:32am
This mob can’t possibly govern, can they?

Nolan has shafted the coalition out of self interest and the king of such, Barnaby Joyce, has thrown the toys out of the cot
Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 10:45am
Barnaby knows a thing or two about dysfunction and destabilizion, they should listen to him.
Back to Top
ExceedAndExcel View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 20 Dec 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 16226
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 11:33am
Sportsbet have paid out on Labor already. Anyone still want to pretend the government will be re-elected?
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Elephant Butte
Status: Offline
Points: 31290
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 11:46am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Sportsbet have paid out on Labor already. Anyone still want to pretend the government will be re-elected?


There is a huge disconnect between the bookies - all over, big Labor win - and the political 'experts' in the media and the polls - very close, Tories in with a chance. What's the story?
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

Back to Top
ExceedAndExcel View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 20 Dec 2008
Status: Offline
Points: 16226
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 11:47am
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Sportsbet have paid out on Labor already. Anyone still want to pretend the government will be re-elected?


There is a huge disconnect between the bookies - all over, big Labor win - and the political 'experts' in the media and the polls - very close, Tories in with a chance. What's the story?




Always go with the bookies. Much more likely to be accurate simply because they have to be. The “experts” in the media get it wrong and they just shrug their shoulders and wait for next time.
Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 11:48am
They still have to sell newspapers and advertising minutes.
Back to Top
rusty nails View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 20 Mar 2013
Location: Sydney
Status: Offline
Points: 11301
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 12:19pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Hypothetical for you Rusty. Apparently your the TBV guru on everything ALP (anyone would think you were a longtime staunch supporter). Lets say the cost of the average property in Sydney today is "X" dollars. Which means the average price 18mths ago was "X" dollars less 20% (or close enough). So if the ALP Property investment changes are brought in as expected - that you rave on about as being great - what do you predict housing prices to be in say 5 years ? Still "X" dollars - or "X" dollars plus 20% - just your best guess. The reason i ask is your stock standard reply is the last time they tinkered with negative gearing "boom times" followed. So what will be the measuring stick growth figure to judge who was right or wrong. So to summarise - whats your prediction of the average price of a house in the Sydney market in 5 years after the ALP have waived their magic wand for a while. We can revisit your predictions to see how it pans out

Hmmm,
Your losing your grip on reality.

Surely you meant prices 18 months ago were X + 20%
Not X -20%.

Secondly, I don’t rate these proposed changes as great.
I just have to say (repeatedly unfortunately) that the hysterical shrieking of impending Armageddon as a result of these changes are based on nothing.
What will prices be in 5 years time?

What will wages growth be?
What will interest rates be?
Unemployment rates?
GDP growth ?
Consumer confidence?

Give me the answers to the above,then I’ll tell you how house prices have moved.


Boooo! ... Have a go ya mug!Angry

You never let a little thing like facts get in the way before!!!LOLLOLLOL

Sigh,
How many times do you need to be told before it finally sinks in?
All the things I listed, are much more significant in affecting property prices, than the proposed changes.
Again, I cite the BOOM that occurred last time these taxes were introduced.

When you get to do year 8 econ,you might finally get it......
Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 6:02pm
You cant trust Labor on issues of security Duddy Spuddy reckons. Shocked

Rwandans accused of 1999 tourist murders in Uganda secretly brought to Australia in deal with United States

By Defence correspondent Andrew Greene

Two Rwandan men accused of murdering tourists in 1999 were recently settled in Australia as part of a refugee swap, after spending years in US immigration detention.

Key points:

  • Two Rwandan men had been held in US immigration detention for 15 years after efforts to convict them failed
  • Case was dropped when a US judge found the men's confession to alleged crimes were obtained under torture
  • It is not known whether Australia accepting the two Rwandans was a precondition of the US agreeing to take on refugees from Manus Island

US media outlet Politico has reported that the two men involved in the killings of eight tourists in Uganda were brought to Australia in November as part of a contentious refugee swap first negotiated by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and the Obama administration.

The Rwandan pair had been held in US immigration detention after efforts to convict them failed.

The Home Affairs Department has so far refused to comment on the report, but Immigration sources have confirmed to the ABC that the two accused murderers were settled in Australia last year.

In 2016, Mr Turnbull struck a refugee swap deal with then US president Barack Obama. more...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/australia-secret-deal-to-take-in-rwandan-tourists-murder-accused/11118922

Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 May 2019 at 6:52pm
Not out of touch at all. Only 2 more sleeps.Thumbs Up

Yesterday:  Wages growth fails to pick up,

Today: Unemployment climbs to 5.2pc, putting RBA under more pressure to cut rates

Also today:   Coalition plans fresh $1.5bn public service cuts to fund election promises
Back to Top
Dr E View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 05 Feb 2013
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 28563
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2019 at 2:23am
oh dear - economic head winds!

Does that mean Child Care workers or Cancer Patients will miss out first? 

... looks like "Climate Change" will have to wait too!Dead
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
Back to Top
rusty nails View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 20 Mar 2013
Location: Sydney
Status: Offline
Points: 11301
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2019 at 2:37am
Given up?

Libs have had a big week.
They’re within the margin of error.
7.00 won’t last on the fair.
Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2019 at 8:09am
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

oh dear - economic head winds!

Does that mean Child Care workers or Cancer Patients will miss out first? 

... looks like "Climate Change" will have to wait too!Dead

Again Labor being left a mess to clean up.

Back to Top
maccamax View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Status: Offline
Points: 41473
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2019 at 4:37pm
BS ,---   PT , We know who leaves the mess .       .   But you can't beat labor .
Even Bob Hawk has done me already, & the election isn't until Saturday.
Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2019 at 7:49pm
Deary deary me.

Turns out the biggest beneficiary of the $80million #watergate scam was  Angus Taylor’s Oxford uni rowing mate’s Hong Kong based company (via the Cayman Islands, of course)

Barney and Angus have some serious questions to answer.

Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2019 at 11:00am
One nana nap left.

Labor in to $1.10.
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Elephant Butte
Status: Offline
Points: 31290
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2019 at 11:26am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

oh dear - economic head winds!

Does that mean Child Care workers or Cancer Patients will miss out first? 

... looks like "Climate Change" will have to wait too!Dead

Again Labor being left a mess to clean up.



Economy stalled, wages stalled, govt debt doubled, tiny surplus on the never-never -" See, if you can't manage money and run a strong economy, you can't take action on anything else."Thumbs Up
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

Back to Top
Isaac soloman View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 13 Oct 2015
Status: Offline
Points: 6085
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2019 at 11:50am
Tlaz, why did union membership go from over 50% in Hawkes time, to under 15% now?
Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2019 at 11:58am
Gutting of auto, textile, clothing, footwear and other industries that traditionally had high union representation and replacing them with jobs that dont....economic restructuring.
Back to Top
mc41 View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 20 Feb 2007
Location: Goldcoast Au
Status: Offline
Points: 4918
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mc41 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2019 at 12:20pm
Originally posted by Isaac soloman Isaac soloman wrote:

Tlaz, why did union membership go from over 50% in Hawkes time, to under 15% now?


Because the right have been try to get rid of them completely

Its a pity that the arbitration rulings argued by unions only apply for members of a union

But you wouldn't like that
Back to Top
Passing Through View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 09 Jan 2013
Location: At home
Status: Offline
Points: 79533
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2019 at 1:24pm
Goodness me Sick

Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Elephant Butte
Status: Offline
Points: 31290
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2019 at 3:43pm

A campaign conducted on the basis of delusion


George Megalogenis

https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/a-campaign-conducted-on-the-basis-of-delusion-20190517-p51oeo.html

History has never really been on the side of the federal Labor party. On the six previous occasions that Labor came to power, it found itself in the eye of a global storm. The entry dates to office underline both the burden, and the bad luck: 1914, 1929, 1940, 1972, 1983 and 2007. That covers both world wars and the four biggest crises of modern capitalism – the great depression, the oil shock, stagflation and the global financial crisis. It is one of the most striking things about our political system. The Australian people shift to Labor in times of national peril, and in most cases quickly come to regret that choice.

Three of those economic crises erupted within the opening year of the new government, cruelling the prime ministerships of James Scullin, Gough Whitlam, and Kevin Rudd. All three lost their jobs within three years of a barnstorming election victory. Scullin’s government split, and was forced to an early election which it lost in a landslide. Whitlam’s government was dismissed by the governor-general, while Rudd was sacked by his own party.

Only Bob Hawke’s government in 1983 had the benefit of knowing the enemy on arrival. The economy was already in deep recession, and his ministry had witnessed the chaos of the Whitlam era and were determined not to repeat that history.

So, if Bill Shorten does lead Labor back into government the question of what could go wrong will occur soon enough. It is the follow-up question that will decide whether his government rises to the challenge like Hawke’s: What did Shorten and his frontbench learn from the Rudd experience?

The answer, sadly, might be not enough. If Labor people are honest with themselves, this election has been conducted along similar lines of delusion as 2007. Both campaigns operated on the assumption of a benign international order, even though the global economy was already at a tipping point.

In 2007, the US housing bubble had already burst and the first of the big financial houses, the British bank Northern Rock, had suffered a run on deposits and required a government bailout. It was not the best time to be promising generous, unfunded tax cuts as Kevin07 did.

Take your pick this year. The United States and China are engaged in a trade war, there is the threat of a hot war between the US and Iran, and North Korea is testing missiles again. Even if none of the above triggers a meltdown, the risk of a US-led global recession disrupting the first term of a Shorten government is nonetheless real. It is a simple matter of arithmetic.

The US economy has been growing for 10 years. At no point in American economic history has the growth cycle extended to an 11th year. This danger applies equally to the Coalition should Scott Morrison pull off the great escape and secure a third term for our least effective, and most divided government since Scullin’s. A Morrison government re-elected on the basis of a fear campaign, the absence of a reform agenda, and an unprecedented third party advertising blitz from Clive Palmer, would not have the authority to unite the nation in a crisis.

The problem starts with the federal budget. It isn’t fit for purpose anymore and the blame lies squarely with the Coalition. The strongest claim the conservatives had to kicking out the Rudd-Gillard government in 2013 was to “end the waste”. Although Tony Abbott did complicate matters somewhat by ruling out spending cuts on the eve of that election, there was surely scope for an intelligent budget repair program.

Meaningful, nation-binding reform would have targeted Howard-era concessions as well Labor’s excess spending. Abbott and his ministers had been eye-witnesses to the profligacy of Howard’s final term, when the temporary windfall of the mining boom was given to voters, without offsetting savings, as a permanent tax cut or increase in welfare. Whatever they said publicly about Labor’s debt and deficit, they should have known that the times were calling on them to atone for the Coalition’s own reckless spending.

Abbott was not up to the challenge. He destroyed his prime ministership, and closed the window for reform, with a partisan first budget that targeted the vulnerable on the foolhardy theory that hitting Labor voters carried no electoral cost. The most savage cuts were blocked by the Senate, and the Coalition basically gave up after that. It would return the budget to surplus through bracket creep, but even then, it could not close the deficit before its second term was complete.

The measure of Abbott’s miscalculation is the Coalition wound up spending more than Labor, even though Rudd and Gillard had been saddled with the global financial crisis. Government expenditure as share of the economy averaged 24.8 per cent under Labor between 2008-9 and 2012-13 and 25.1 per cent under the Coalition between 2013-14 and 2018-19. Government debt is larger today as a share of the economy than it was at the end of the last recession. It has more than doubled in dollar terms on the Coalition’s watch.

This has left Australia without a buffer to deploy in the next global recession. With interest rates already at historic lows, the only recourse to stimulus would be more government borrowing.

History will not be kind to the Coalition for ducking the challenge of climate change. The failure to manage the budget is in some respects more damning because the paralysis cannot be explained by the civil war between Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull. The budget was supposed to be the issue that united the moderates and the hard right of the Liberal Party. Yet there was a failure of will and imagination that will handicap future governments on both sides.

The past six years of divided Coalition government has coincided with Australia’s weakest economic performance in a generation. The simplest way to see this is by comparing our unemployment rate with the United States. At the 2013 election, Australia’s unemployment rate was 5.7 per cent. 1.5 points below the US figure of 7.2 per cent. Last month, ours was 1.6 point higher – 5.2 per cent versus 3.6 per cent. The US recovery has largely passed us by, leaving Australia in the slow lane of global growth. The lines crossed on Abbott’s watch, and his successors Malcolm Turnbull and Morrison were unable to close to gap.

Labor could be forgiven for not anticipating the GFC a decade ago – the Treasury and the Reserve Bank missed the warning signs before the election. And the Rudd government still deserves credit for the part it played in helping Australia avoid a deep recession once the crisis struck. But the avoidable mistake that Labor made in 2007, and which it has repeated this year, was to load too many promises onto a compromised budget. Back then Labor’s attack lines against the Coalition’s fiscal indolence did not match its actions.

Shorten has been careful to offset his spending promises with savings. But the transactions required in a downturn are epic in scale, and carry huge political risk. Election promises have to be set aside, or dumped to allow the government to focus its attention on the crisis at hand. The Whitlam and Rudd-Gillard governments failed this test of temperament. They insisted on implementing their respective programs, written before the world changed.

If Shorten wants to be the next Hawke, he has to educate his party, and the nation on a new economic model. That model will have to be informed by the failures of the previous Labor and Coalition governments.



An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

Back to Top
maccamax View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Status: Offline
Points: 41473
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 May 2019 at 3:48pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

One nana nap left.

Labor in to $1.10.


YES .. Confusion got me ... I woke this morning, thrilled that Scomp had won the election and I was ecstatic...

    I have to wait another day aye .. PT.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 752753754755756 760>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 12.05
Copyright ©2001-2022 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 1.387 seconds.