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LNP government. |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Well Sportsbet must be stupid as well Rusty. At 7pm ALP were $1.14 to win the Federal Election. At 10pm the price had drifted to $1.18. So maybe my comment wasn’t that stupid after all.................
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I'm expecting some announcements now that the State election is over.
Great to see Mark Latham back in Public Life .. Watch One Nation surge . Energy Prices and making the Country drought proof , would be a good start. Border Security will be hammered. Always good to see the Heavenly State of NSW under reliable Management. Plus the great oneonesit's return , to add support to weeding out these Crazy Green lefties. |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Cheers Macca. I just hope Shorten & his handmaidens stick to the important issues like Climate Change , Gender Fluidity , Gender Equality , Indiginous Reconciliation & improving social welfare benefits to all & sundry. Guaranteed to sure up their inner city seats. Esp with the Greens on stand-by to give them a hand.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Why doesn’t The Shooters Party cop the same sort of flak that One Nation & Palmers United Party get ? The bloke running seems a bit of a goose. They are becoming more of a force out in the country
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Dr E
Champion Joined: 05 Feb 2013 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 28563 |
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A few observations;
Guess Who's Getting New Stadiums!!!??? WOOHOO!!! Labor was up against it - try as they might, they could never completely hide his boofhead, and banishing Bill to WA for a week just wasn't enough ... any further from Sydney of course and he would have been in the Indian Ocean! They should have sent the Lying Anti-Asian Racist Temporary NSW ALP Opposition Leader to WA last week to carry Bills bags!!! The Parrot usually gets the last word against these imposters and did it again; "Michael Daley ... Thank you for your service!" Winx might be retiring after her next run, but we have her replacement ready to carry the Blue Colours with equal class, quality, dignity and dominance into the future - GLADYS IS THE WINX OF NSW POLITiCS!!! None of this will help ScoMo win the Federal Election ... BUT IT WON'T HURT!
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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 19 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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If he ordered some Coal Fired energy Stations , A few Dams to drought proof the inland and a 20% reduction of electricity , he would be well on the way .
Add that to Border protection and most voters might understand what he's talking about . Can we ever forget JOBS & GROWTH . What race was it in. |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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Sportsbet stupid enough to be posting that an expected NSW win was a train wreck federally? I don’t think so. |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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Then why are you continually quoting the odds for the federal election.....
It’s stupid to keep digging when you’re in a hole. And in terms of a train wreck in the state election, how many seats would a rational person expect ALP to have lost in a train wreck? Let’s not forget, Gladys firmed as favourite in the final week. |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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I'm starting to see why the good Doc has so much trouble explaining things to you.
I would have thought a movement in Sportsbets price over 3 hours on election night from $1.14 to $1.18 could only be assessed as a case of the blows. Its nearly a 30% increase on the offer. So unless i am 'Stupid" - it would suggest in Sportsbets eyes that the ALP's hopes of winning the Federal were in fact less because of the NSW outcome. Now i'm happy to hear you give me another reason that made more sense.......
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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It would appear that you could well be stupid.
An easing from 1.14 to 1.18 represents an 87.7% chance reduced to 84.7% chance. You’re obviously still doing year 4 maths with Doc...... |
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11716 |
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Is there any correlation with State and Federal elections? State Labor governments kept getting returned all through the Howard era.didnt follow it, what were the “issues” the two main parties ran on over there?
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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Maths is maths, don’t get angry at me if you don’t understand it.
To put it words that maybe you can understand. If you put $100 on ALP on Saturday morning, you’d stand to win $14. If you risked $100 now, you’d stand to win $18. That’s a difference of $4 for every $100. That’s sweet FA. Even if you did it in 20c pieces....... |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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I'm no mathematical genius - however i'd back myself against you Rusty. A movement from $`1.14 to $1.18 is the equivalent of a $2 pop easing to just under $2.30 (almost a 30% increase in price). You do realise price & probabilities are 2 different languages don't you ?
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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No wonder you struggled with Doc over anything financial.
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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Oh dear........
You are certainly no mathematical genius..... You do realise that prices are based on,or are a reflection/expression of perceived probabilities? To suggest that the price has moved by 30%, is a complete distortion of events. But hey,if that’s what makes 4th graders happy, then you stick with it! |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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How many seats in total did Labor lose and did LNP gain in your ''train'wreck'' fantasy oneone?
Hint don't quote Gladys she lied.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Your not the first person to fall for the 3 card trick of including the stake Rusty. Seen many a dimwit do it. I'm sure Doc will see the lighter side of this exchange - a movement in price from $1.14 to $1.18 is in your words "SFA". An increase return of just under 30% is hardly that.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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OMG, You really can’t count. How much extra do you collect for $100? For you to portray an $14 dividend increasing to $18,as a massive 30% turnaround,speaks volumes for your analytical abilities. |
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Listen Rusty your beyond help. The size of the stake is irrelevant to the % increase return. If i have invested $1 I have made 4 cents more, $100 is $4 more, $1000 is $40 more & so on. The percentage increase is 28.6% in all cases.
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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I had an excellent night thanks oneone. It will be topped off if Mark Latham gets a second quota and the PHON and SFF battle it out for who owns Gladys.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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You know there is a Federal election in 2 months oneone?
Your mob have 4 country seats in doubt or flipped yesterday at state level as the RWNJ civil war rages on. How many seats does SlowMo have up his sleeve that he can throw away? Oh that's right he is is already in minority. You better get Barnyard back in the fold pretty quick methinks. He is an absolute fruitcake but simple country folk like him, if they can put the water thing and the services thing and the infrastructure failings behind them. Only 2 months to get a NatSpill happening.
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oneonesit
Champion Joined: 06 Aug 2012 Status: Offline Points: 36892 |
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Which is why Sportsbet have the ALP as short-priced favourites at $1.18. Just a little bit longer than they were before the NSW Election.
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rusty nails
Champion Joined: 20 Mar 2013 Location: Sydney Status: Offline Points: 11301 |
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You’ve got most of it right. Very good on understanding what 4% equates to. Which is not much,whatever the sums involved. However,it’s a dismal fail in portraying it a massive change in circumstances. The price movement of 4% is insignificant, that’s what’s relevant. By your logic, If the price increased from 1.01 to 1.015 that a massive 50% increase on the old price,which you suggest infers a dramatic shift in circumstances. Where in reality,it’s an almost meaningless change in circumstances. |
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Passing Through
Champion Joined: 09 Jan 2013 Location: At home Status: Offline Points: 79533 |
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So what happened to the LNP yesterday? I didn't watch the coverage.
You had a Premier that a lot of people like and who hasn't offended many leading a govt who hadn't done a whole lot wrong and an opposition desperate to self immolate yet today you are sitting on a bare majority or a hung parliament. |
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