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BC3 Thoroughbreds |
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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My choice too, he's proven he can train potential stallions to commence duties off the back of superb track performances i.e.Octagonal, Lohnro & ATH come to mind, it's up to the horse & his management as to whether or not he becomes commercial.
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25066 |
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It will give him the $4 & $5 million dollar colts. Now if both are good are they tested against each other.
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Run For Fun
Champion Joined: 22 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 14575 |
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Good decision imo also. It's understood that the agreement with Team Hawkes involves John oversighting and fine tuning the operation, Michael performing the hands on training, and Wayne doing sfa other than mucking out the colt's box each day (the BC3 team are understood to be fighting over just which of them will take Wayne's raceday spokesperson role).
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It's hard to soar with eagles...
Cheers |
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Skz
Champion Joined: 30 Mar 2013 Status: Offline Points: 700 |
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Anyone suggesting 10 G1 winners from 156 is not a good strike rate has never bred or purchased yearlings, had someone said 10 G1 winners from 300 i would have said that's a good strike rate also, what you lot don't understand is buying yearlings is not a profitable business as Lordy and Noccy said they were impressed with the stats.
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Repent
Champion Joined: 03 Jun 2011 Location: Dural Heights Status: Offline Points: 3161 |
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God has spoken....we need a new thread...
"Ask God"
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Fine
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 4066 |
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Ask God. Perhaps that's what they'll call the colt. And if he wins a Group 1, it will be 'Thank God'.
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Repent
Champion Joined: 03 Jun 2011 Location: Dural Heights Status: Offline Points: 3161 |
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subastral
Champion Joined: 28 Jul 2011 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 34887 |
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If it's 5 or 10, arent we being a little simplistic on the ratio? Wouldnt it be more accurate to work out the total cost of the 156 $1m plus yearlings, and work it out from there. As a guess, lets say $200m. $200m for 5/10 Group 1 winners is a very poor return imo.
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Skz
Champion Joined: 30 Mar 2013 Status: Offline Points: 700 |
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But its not any poorer than buying 20k -200k yearling
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 31 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41243 |
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Please , please, let someone take over his role of speaking ! while they may be great with horses, their public speaking is terrible ! yes, i know that doesnt make winners, but gee whiz they need some lessons in PR ! |
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animals before people.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Online Points: 31290 |
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I can't find where the paper I got the 10 from 156 from but here is another and we've gone up to 11:
"Before this week’s sale, there were 156 yearlings across Australasia who broke the $1m barrier. Of these, 11 won Group 1 races – six bought in Australia (Viking Ruler, Seventh Rock, Sunday Joy, Samantha Miss, Master of Design, All Too Hard) and five bought in New Zealand (Darci Brahma, Don Eduardo, St Reims, Shower of Roses, Rock ‘n’ Pop)." http://www.theroar.com.au/2013/04/10/record-yearling-to-write-own-history/ |
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Munga Rangi
Champion Joined: 18 Jul 2012 Location: Sydney Metro Status: Offline Points: 1954 |
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Good luck to Hawkes and Co, at least the horse has a chance of seeing the end of his 3yr old days without becoming a statistic.
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Caveat emptor
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 31 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41243 |
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yes, so true. they are good with their horses. cant speak for $$hit,,but if I had my druthers,,,,i druther Hawkes than Gai. |
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animals before people.
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Repent
Champion Joined: 03 Jun 2011 Location: Dural Heights Status: Offline Points: 3161 |
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The bar is open
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 31 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41243 |
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Really ?? You shouting , Repent ???
If you are, I will have a triple scotch and soda thanks. |
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animals before people.
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Munga Rangi
Champion Joined: 18 Jul 2012 Location: Sydney Metro Status: Offline Points: 1954 |
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Watch him AA ....He's got that look in his eyes (even though they're looking in different directions)
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Caveat emptor
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Fine
Champion Joined: 20 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 4066 |
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A really good champagne with half a dozen natural oysters to go with it, for me Repent. You know I deserve it.
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Online Points: 51818 |
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Anyone for a bundy 'n' coke, Repent's shouting?
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Munga Rangi
Champion Joined: 18 Jul 2012 Location: Sydney Metro Status: Offline Points: 1954 |
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As I have to get up early in the morning, may I have a Magners Cider over ice please?....or a bottle of Penfolds Grange Hermitage thanks, if you have a loud alarm clock
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Caveat emptor
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 31 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41243 |
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bar,s open then !! tab,s on repent !
go for it folks ! |
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animals before people.
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International
Champion Joined: 13 May 2012 Location: Dubai Status: Offline Points: 964 |
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I first seriously looked at breeze ups in France 2 years ago, looking for lower risk - but the main Arqana sale of that year went nuts - one group bid for 25% of the horses and the pinhookers had a field day with lots of 300 - 400% profit (net), with trainers shaking their heads saying this was nuts. That day the ground was very firm and a lot of horses did not come out of it well. Lucayan, the French 2000 Guineas winner, was subsequently the best horse bought that sale. Two problems you have to be really aware of are:1) some horses are really poorly prepared - while the French preparers are a lot better than they were (from what I was told they were horrendous 5 years before), some of the breeze ups from them are still comical; and 2) while some of the big Irish pinhookers prepare them to gallop well (and so often get big prices - especially Mocklershill) - it is their Derby and a lot of people remain uncomfortable with the potential over hard prep for the horses. At the breeze ups, the fastest 10 as long as no x-ray problems will get heavily bid for - others can drop right off. Also volatility in these sales in Europe seem higher than yearling sales - bad weather means fewer buyers, and bargains to be had -Newmarket Guineas breeze up sales last year. For Australia, a couple of trainers i have spoken to, do not like the breeze ups as they say they need to go back to scratch too often with crap breaking in. I ended up buying my French horse at the 2011 summer breeze up which is the last of them in Europe - smaller number of horses, and most are nothing special, but the sale is much lower cost as none of the bigger buyers show up. I bought mine for EUR20K. He is a solid mid-level performer, won on debut in what turned out a crap race restricted to newcomers, and returned me 2x purchase price. Only one listed winner, Malossol came out of that - at EUR34k. Obviously training cost are reduced by 6 mths or so which is a big saving. As to the comment on if they were any good, they would keep them - the job of the pinhooker is to keep trading. They have a batch of horses coming through the next year. A certain Shamardal colt that was injured prior to breeze up a couple of years ago, was kept as he was good enough to win something and be sold in horses in training sale. That horse is called Puissance De Lune. A bargain at 90k EUR, and of course frustrating - but the pinhooker has an increased reputation for identifying a good horse. Anyone want to check out a High Chaparral colt being sold at Arqana in May breeze up, let me know. He is a foal pinhook who we bought back as a yearling, and prepared by same person as pinhooked Puissance de Lune. Saw him 2 weeks ago and he is a lovely colt, who has filled out really well.
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Bonjour
Champion Joined: 25 Feb 2010 Status: Offline Points: 8402 |
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With due respect International, your referring to European and UK breeze ups.....it was an old trick, but a goodie here in 'Oceania' to fire up/encourage if you like, certain candidates in trials or glorified jump outs by filling them with every go fast known to man. This of course enhances their performance and the unwary [in most cases Asian buyer] would then think he had his hands on the golden chalice or Pegasus. This was de rigour some years back, now, I'm not sure if it is regulated to the extent it is impossible.
Another 'trick' was to have many of the riders involved [remember I'm talking about jump outs ands trials/breeze ups] where they would pull up behind the tearaway leader and he would go onto win by 10!] the juice helped of course by making a good thing out of a good thing. The unsuspecting buyer would then receive an animal unable to achieve the expectations placed upon it. Prevalent in NZ back some 20 years ago when Asia was flooded with 'morning glories' and Macau and Singapore were racing backwaters. Now I'm not suggesting that this behaviour is ongoing in France, UK etc, however it would be good to learn from a learned source such as yourself if all horses are swabbed/scoped/x-rayed after their respective breeze-ups as a matter of course or only on buyer request and expense?..........there are a number of non-permormers ex UK/Europe here in AUS and I'm wondering if they were bought ex sale ring/privately or following breeze-ups.
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Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Online Points: 31290 |
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"Before this week’s sale, there were 156 yearlings across Australasia who broke the $1m barrier. Of these, 11 won Group 1 races – six bought in Australia (Viking Ruler, Seventh Rock, Sunday Joy, Samantha Miss, Master of Design, All Too Hard) and five bought in New Zealand (Darci Brahma, Don Eduardo, St Reims, Shower of Roses, Rock ‘n’ Pop)." That is, by any measure, disgraceful. Pure chance would do better- probably much better. A drunken lunatic picking numbers by the snot dribbling out of his nose would do better. I wonder how much the combined fees were for the expert assistance on picking those 156? |
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Buckpasser
Champion Joined: 01 Aug 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 1604 |
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How is that disgraceful? 20,000 mares going to stud in Australia and there are about 70 gr1 races a year. Average those out across each crop, allow for multiple winners and you have about 50 individual gr1 winners per crop. Deduct mares who missed/slipped, dead foals etc then add horses imported from New Zealand and overseas destinations plus fly ins for races like Mel cup and your chances of any individual horse born in a given Aus crop winning a gr1 is minuscule. Compare that to a formula where about 8% of horse identified before anyone has even ridden them win a gr1 and that is quite stunning. And that's 8% of horses at purchase, not 8% that make the track, or survive etc.
I would also assume that the cost per gr1 win is lower than the cost across the entire horse population, that's to say that the costs from the starting point of the 20,000 mares to the end of the pro genies racing careers divided by total gr1wins would be tens of millions each. So we can safely assume, without roi being a factor for any level of the industry, that the most likely way to get a gr1winner from the ranks of unbroken horses is to buy a million dollar yearling. Obvious it is up to each individual buyer to do a personal budget and assess their own risk/reward exposure. |
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International
Champion Joined: 13 May 2012 Location: Dubai Status: Offline Points: 964 |
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Bonjour - it is buyer request at Arqana at least - but if there is bad x ray, you should be able to hear about it. One of the 10 fastest at Arqana 2 years back was a really nice First Samurai colt, but he showed up with a cyst on the stifle and everybody backed off (including an otherwise interested Hong Kong Jockey Club) except the group who bid for 25% of the lots. the horse went into training, and was entered to be sold at end of last year as an unraced 3 year old - got withdrawn and not in training. One Ifraaj that sold for good money was on bute - he has proven to be OK but still not returned his cost. Stuff you are referring to does happen to some extent so it still remains buyer beware and try to find someone who can warn you of the dangers. My main point was exactly what you bring out as well - the breeze ups are far from risk free, and you can be more disappointed having seen something that looks the part and does bugger all after.
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Ecair Issoire
Champion Joined: 10 Nov 2011 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16586 |
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hawkes racing purchased lot 55 for $310K a couple of days ago at the gc horses in training sale. a dreamscape 2yr old colt out of jesta sweetie (rory's jester) his breeze up time was an impressive 9.87, in style..+ @ $310k he does look value imo..(compared to buying a well bred, nice walking, reasonably conformed, unknown package) will be interesting to see how good he turns out to be.
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Gee Gee
Champion Joined: 31 Aug 2009 Status: Offline Points: 8300 |
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Has Pippa (RC Helsinge Filly) had a trial yet?
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Bonjour
Champion Joined: 25 Feb 2010 Status: Offline Points: 8402 |
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Will any of them ever race??? see their joints at the sales?????at least steroids are out now, so these youngsters will grow out naturally [?????]......not that they need it cos they were tanks anyway. Makes you wonder, but nothing surprises nowadays.
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Superb
Champion Joined: 25 Oct 2012 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 2302 |
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Used to have a little pony on the farm named pippa
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FrankDrebin
Weanling Joined: 21 Sep 2013 Status: Offline Points: 92 |
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You don't need to win a grp1 to recoup your costs anyway. Buffering has won 2.5mil. I would be interested in seeing how many of these million dollar babies never make it to the races though compared to the overall figure.
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