PT finally   ( I hope  )

By business reporter Michael Janda

So, with this latest credit squeeze, and no new money for investment, what happens when we have an influx of 1,000,0000 people in the next 4 years, who want to live in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane ... we all understand the effects of supply and demand, don't we? ... will the property prices crash another 20 or 30%? ... or will they be forced up? ... will rents keep going down? ... only if everyone who wants to live here can somehow afford to buy ... 

New supply in Brisbane falls off a cliff next year ... what then? ... BOOM!

No immigration, and then we DO have a property bubble, and with no more people needing a roof over their head, the property market, just like everything else, bursts! Then we have mass unemployment and a recession ... until China bails us out by buying everything for $1.

If there is no real change to immigration numbers, as expected, the other options are;

ALP/Greens get in ... huge issues caused by reckless "populist" changes to Negative Gearing and CGT rules, along with their attack on self funded retirees - huge tax impost on "Aspirational Mum and Dad" investors, exacerbating a market that is lacking confidence - a huge hit, long term for ALL property owners, not just investors, leading to minimum $500,000,000,000 "wealth black hole" - much of this will need to be filled by future generations, don't forget, the family home is the only "super" for a vast number of Baby Boomers, and it will be required by retirees over the next 20 years, or people will just have to put off retirement for another 10 -20 years. Increased rents are the obvious outcomes, and housing affordability will not change to any great degree. In fact almost ALL new home buyers will be worse off, as the future value of their potential inheritance is smashed. These figures are simply based on the ALP's own policy document that sits in their website, and has been there since it was cobbled together as an opportunistic populist thought bubble before the last election - the outcomes are actually acknowledged by the Grattan Institute (the ALP's preferred number crunching "think tank") they say a "small" immediate drop in property values of around 2% would occur, assuming they are right(?) along with a reduced future capital growth rate - sounds benign, but if you do those figures, it's a cost to wealth of $500 Billion over 10 years for a purported $32 billion tax grab (which will of course be spent on public servants!) ... if those estimates are only slightly wrong, the forward estimate cost to the wealth of citizens who have an interest in property will become TRILLIONS of dollars. These projections are hardly alarmist. Some more recent examinations and estimates by independent sources are far harsher, some saying that the effect would be like a 1-1.5% interest rate increase, and predicting 9% slides in values. 

Of course, the great irony of these policies is that the "Party of Envy" are trying to look like they are punishing the "rich" and giving to the "poor" - in fact, they are creating MORE POOR, as the middle class apirational "Mums and Dads" will just say "what's the point" we wont bother trying to create our own retirement funds, and join up to the welfare plan, whilst the truly rich will just shuffle their wealth and find another way, because they can, because they are, well, RICH.

LNP stay in ... steady as she goes, predictable property market.

If ScoMo can get his narrative sorted, and properly prosecute these issues around this ALP policy of ECONOMIC TERRORISM, with a simple message (like SHORTEN'S ECONOMIC TERRORISM) - and he touched on it yesterday in fact - then it WILL be a massive game changer ... if the electorate is smart enough to "get it".

Malcolm didn't even mention this prior to the last election ... well to be fair, he didn't say anything except "jobs and growth" did he? ... funnily enough, he delivered on both, and still failed.