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Australian property crash

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Dec 2018 at 8:08pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

If it’s in pink, I’d recommend a 2nd opinion before investing your hard earned....

Actually, anyone taking property advice of someone with his posting history has no respect for their money...

>>>      Hello RUSTY , I knew You would come back .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Dec 2018 at 6:17pm
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The value of Catholic Church properties listed for sale are predicted to fall through the floor when the embargo of particular Court proceedings is ultimately lifted.

Few properties are understood to have been negatively geared, but rather funded via the incessant tithe expected of parishioners.
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http://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-property-market-sydney-melbourne-price-forecast-capital-economics-2018-12


Sydney and Melbourne house prices are headed for the largest downturn in modern history

  • Capital Economics is bearish on Sydney and Melbourne home prices, predicting they’ll fall 20% and 17% respectively from the prior cyclical peak.
  • It says “this would make the downturn in each city the largest in modern history”.
  • Don’t fret if you live in Australia’s remaining capitals, though. The group expects a far more resilient performance from prices.

We use rental yields to estimate the sustainable house price to earnings (HPE) ratio,” says Thieliant and Udy.

“In Sydney, current rental yields imply that house prices would need to fall a further 25% to be consistent with the estimated sustainable HPE ratio, though this is down from a peak of 29%.

“In Melbourne, the gap remains wider than in any other city, implying a fall in house prices of 27% to return prices to a sustainable level.”

Helping to explain why Capital Economics doesn’t see price falls of the magnitude estimated by rental yields, Thieliant and Udy expect some improvement in rental rates as supply of new housing stock slows.

“A fall in prices isn’t required to bring the HPE ratio to its sustainable level as growth in earnings will help as well,” they say.

“We think that some combination of price declines and growth in earnings will eventually bring the HPE ratio to a more sustainable level in each city.”

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with the bottom falling out i wonder how long the chinese will hang around?LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Dec 2018 at 10:21pm
Originally posted by Isaac soloman Isaac soloman wrote:

with the bottom falling out i wonder how long the chinese will hang around?LOL

Imagine what a property crash would do to the economy . NOT LIKELY.

Half the Country is still enjoying modest price rises. Their turn, in the predictable cycle .
With hundreds of thousands added to our population each year , HOW can demand fall to the levels predicted in the above articles.

   Let them keep talking Real Estate down and go in and get a desperate sale
with a reduced offer and " Bob's Yr Uncle ".   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Dec 2018 at 10:57pm
I'll be looking for the cheap ones sold by the catholic church.LOL


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 2:38pm
Originally posted by Isaac soloman Isaac soloman wrote:

I'll be looking for the cheap ones sold by the catholic church.LOL



    The Pell residence may be vacant for an extended period Isaac.

   You might get that one at a seduced price.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Dec 2018 at 12:00pm

Bill Shorten to use ALP national conference to unveil $6.6-billion plan to build 250,000 homes ClapClap

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2018 at 1:42am
So that will house the boat people, but where is he going to get the other $50 Billion to get them to lock up stage when the Unions hold him to ransom?Ermm
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2018 at 2:20am
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by Afros Afros wrote:

Are losses on paper really losses? The only actual profit/loss on an asset is after you sell, yes I'm aware market value has implications elsewhere but unless people their losses on the property are on paper only.

True! a loss or gain is only "paper" until the asset is actually sold. 

Property values represent a large chunk of the NATIONS wealth, not just individuals, so there are many and far-reaching consequences when those values increase or decrease even notionally.

Some simple examples are, if you own a real estate asset with debt, then any loss in value can put you in a precarious position if you are unable to meet the holding costs, and a sale is forced.

If you want to use that asset as security for any other acquisition, and the value has diminished, that will be problematic too, may restrict the owner from doing anything, even say improving, repairing or maintaining.

So those are two obvious examples.

Your approaching this like increasing value and profits continually should be a guarantee but this isn't how the free market economy the Liberals love works, for every winner there has to be a loser. 

No, not at all - there is no such assumption, and it would be unrealistic - history tells us that markets move in cycles, but they are hardly smooth and predictable, with lots of bumps along the way! You can apply the decelerating future growth as a negative if you wish, it accentuates the losses accordingly. Have a look at the most recent property Bust in the USA - NOBODY benefited out of that, for every Loser there were MORE LOSERS - people were leaving the house keys in the front door and walking away, creating Ghost Towns in the Mortgage Belt - there was nobody taking advantage in that case, other than repo agents and the like - even the banks had to be bailed out by the Federal Reserve, so EVERYONE LOST.

Do you know why we are interested in what industry your in? Because you keep claiming you'll do well out of it but then talk in riddles about exactly how and why and yet you also keep banging on about how bad the policy is, you can't have it both ways, either your lieing that you'll do well out of it or your dislike of it comes from your hatred of the left, don't try pretend you just care how other people will fare out of that, we all know that isn't true.

Afros, what does it matter what the industry is? Take your pick! You said it, for every winner, there has to be a loser! Whale picked out a bunch of industries that would somehow benefit ... but the fact is, everyone would be taking a massive step backward financially to start with, if property values went backwards and we were tipped into a recession. AND I HAVE SAID IT SEVERAL TIMES, THE BENEFIT I WILL GLEAN, AND TRUST ME, I WILL BE BUSY, WILL BE OFFSET BY THE GENERAL PROPERTY VALUE LOSSES, and ECONOMIC LOSSES ... same as everyone in all of those industries and businesses that Whale suggested and dozens of others - in the end NOBODY WILL WIN! 

So I'm not lying, I don't lie, plenty of dick heads have accused me of that, but never put up! ... why would you bother lying in an anonymous online forum? 

I don't hate the left, I don't hate anyone on the left (apart from Malcolm of course!Angry) in fact, I have great friends who are left-wing nutter ideologues - I call them idiots and they reciprocate! I do get frustrated with, and I disagree with a lot of their policies and ideologies - I don't think that is "Breaking News" though! 

The facts are, this policy is;
1. Poorly thought through 
2. Poorly articulated ... why is it so hard to find the facts - the virtue signaling "message" - Rob from the "rich" despised property investors, and give to the "poor" first Home Buyer/victim is clear though!  
3. CERTAIN to cause losses to property owners - THEY ADMIT IT! ... and it must if as they claim, it helps First Home Buyers and housing affordability - that makes sense if nothing else does!!!
4. UNCOSTED ... why won't they offer some numbers as I have? ... is it because the numbers are worse than they had ever imagined? ... remember, this was proposed 3 years ago, at the 11th hour of an election that they didn't think they could win going in ... and it has NOT been reviewed since, and the economy and markets are totally different.
5. Has a "Butterfly Effect" - they have not considered the direct consequences properly - the certainly have not considered the unintended consequences, none of which is "good".

Again, this is simply NOT a policy that can achieve anything beneficial, not even a break even, on the best scenarios ... and the worst outcome - which of course everyone would hope against ... but, which tend to come with the ALP's economic policies ... is a catastrophe.

Our economy is thriving at present Afros - as a society, we have never lived a better lifestyle or been so prosperous - we will be in budget deficit soon, and we can then start addressing debt ... why would we want to change what is not broken?


What do you think - turned over a new leaf - get it green - leaf!Wink





So Afros, I know it 's not in your favourite pastel colour, but I did go to the effort of answering your questions, so what do you think?Confused


In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2018 at 10:04am
Welcome Doc.

      Not many posts of late .    Must be Labor - ites turning to the easy money of THE PUNT.
    lol...       We do deserve what we get , If we can't see the Forest for the trees.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2018 at 10:11am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Welcome Doc.

      Not many posts of late .    Must be Labor - ites turning to the easy money of THE PUNT.
    lol...       We do deserve what we get , If we can't see the Forest for the trees.

Is this a veiled reference to Bigal ? Careful old timer you are on 2 warnings already Smile
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Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Welcome Doc.

      Not many posts of late .    Must be Labor - ites turning to the easy money of THE PUNT.
    lol...       We do deserve what we get , If we can't see the Forest for the trees.

Is this a veiled reference to Bigal ? Careful old timer you are on 2 warnings already Smile

you are smarter that that whale....i think....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2018 at 11:33am
Originally posted by Isaac soloman Isaac soloman wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Welcome Doc.

      Not many posts of late .    Must be Labor - ites turning to the easy money of THE PUNT.
    lol...       We do deserve what we get , If we can't see the Forest for the trees.


Is this a veiled reference to Bigal ? Careful old timer you are on 2 warnings already Smile


you are smarter that that whale....i think....



The mods don't need your help Whale.   I conform until I get chased up .
Which is exactly what your doing now by naming Al.
At least your smart enough to pick a winner occasionally, So one week on the sidelines is a fair assessment of what you should get for being so clever , in stirring further barbs on the subject.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2018 at 11:50am
[

The mods don't need your help Whale.   I conform until I get chased up .
Which is exactly what your doing now by naming Al.
At least your smart enough to pick a winner occasionally, So one week on the sidelines is a fair assessment of what you should get for being so clever , in stirring further barbs on the subject.[/QUOTE]

Complete delusion, Macca thinks he has some influence on TBV Shocked

Tell us again how you have never been suspended LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2018 at 12:08pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Welcome Doc.

      Not many posts of late .    Must be Labor - ites turning to the easy money of THE PUNT.
    lol...       We do deserve what we get , If we can't see the Forest for the trees.


Is this a veiled reference to Bigal ? Careful old timer you are on 2 warnings already Smile



        One more reference to this & you can spell for 2wks Whale.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2018 at 2:57pm


[/QUOTE]
        One more reference to this & you can spell for 2wks Whale.[/QUOTE]

Moderator Macca Shocked
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So to create more division, and drain more money, the Labor/Greens Collusion are going to spend tens of billions of dollars on "affordable" housing - when did the ALP ever build anything that was "affordable", without pissing money up against the wall? 

Why have we been selling off "Government funded" housing for years?

Oh, that's right ... because NEGATIVE GEARING HAS BEEN SO SUCCESSFUL in creating a stable affordable rental pool, and PUBLIC SERVANTS AND BUREAUCRATS ARE gelati AT BEING PRETEND LANDLORDS!!!

On top of that, they are going to spend BILLIONS MORE on a "Re-Rudd" of a program THAT DIDN'T WORK last time! ... they are rebranding the NRAS program - which failed last time, was rorted, and the banks refused to fund.

ALP, just offer more confused, uncosted, back of the coaster policy, or they "Re-Rudd" something that didn't work last time!

Hey, if it resonates as virtue signaling three-word slogan, go for it.

After all the "Useful Idiots" will never do any research! 
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2018 at 4:00pm
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Dec 2018 at 7:13pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

So to create more division, and drain more money, the Labor/Greens Collusion are going to spend tens of billions of dollars on "affordable" housing - when did the ALP ever build anything that was "affordable", without pissing money up against the wall? 

Why have we been selling off "Government funded" housing for years?

Oh, that's right ... because NEGATIVE GEARING HAS BEEN SO SUCCESSFUL in creating a stable affordable rental pool, and PUBLIC SERVANTS AND BUREAUCRATS ARE gelati AT BEING PRETEND LANDLORDS!!!

On top of that, they are going to spend BILLIONS MORE on a "Re-Rudd" of a program THAT DIDN'T WORK last time! ... they are rebranding the NRAS program - which failed last time, was rorted, and the banks refused to fund.

ALP, just offer more confused, uncosted, back of the coaster policy, or they "Re-Rudd" something that didn't work last time!

Hey, if it resonates as virtue signaling three-word slogan, go for it.

After all the "Useful Idiots" will never do any research! 


Oh dearie me.......

If you can’t cut and paste someonel else’s thoughts you just mess it up every time.....

Remember you were squealing about the decimation of the construction industry?
And now there is a plan to invest in this very industry, you’re squealing again....
Not about the plan,but about the concept.
Pick which one you don’t like and stick with it.
Picking both just demonstrates that you don’t understand the subject matter.


Poor old Doc has the attention span of nemo.....
Remember we gave you the lesson about negative gearing.
It’s not designed to provide rental property to the poor, otherwise you wouldn’t get it when you buy a band of brood mares to breed from commercially.
You wouldn’t get it to buy Shares on the stock market.
You wouldn’t get it to buy fine art for 100s of thousands.
Can you please try and remember it this time?
No wonder 4th grade were the best 3 years of you’re life!

And poor old Doc messes it up again with “we’ve been selling off public housing for years”
You clearly dont understand the difference between Federal & State Governments.....

Poor old Doc is out of his depth in a puddle


I might come back and correct the rest of your homework later.
You should really consider doing another stint in the 4th grade.
It can only help.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Dec 2018 at 9:12pm
I prayed for you at Christmas Mass ... but then I pray for all of those less fortunate, every year. 

... I guess it's true, God does work in mysterious ways.
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Dec 2018 at 11:22pm
You are so smart Rusty. Thumbs Up We all enjoy all your posts that go out of their way to make everyone else here look like idiots , and you look like some clever dick. Clap
Why do you lower yourself to come here and bother with us ?Confused
Oh yes.  Thats right. So you can put us all down and make yourself look smart.  LOL
Go join Mensa FF$ and see how you fare.  Thumbs Down
You crack me up  !LOL
animals before people.
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Hey aa, have you noticed that whilst the Mensa wannabe argues with everything I have to say - but never actually argues the points that I make or the maths or comes up with any alternative outcomes or costs of the labor policies - he NEVER disputes ANYTHING that a self-confessed liar like CNNPT has to say on a range of subjects ... it's like he is auditioning to be Whale's very own mini-me! Wink

The problem is, that I think he has actually convinced himself that his irrational babbling means something that is remotely relevant when it is just blithering nonsense ...WackoLOL
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Dec 2018 at 2:26am
Negative gearing is quite clear , being a tax relief on borrowed money , when the returns from the investment don't cover the overheads of the loan.
   That relief usually pays for itself when the investment matures over time and capital gains tax kicks in .
   Stimulating the economy , providing Rental property etc etc.
Aren't I a clever Dick.

   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Dec 2018 at 9:30am
Originally posted by acacia alba acacia alba wrote:

You are so smart Rusty. Thumbs Up We all enjoy all your posts that go out of their way to make everyone else here look like idiots , and you look like some clever dick. Clap
Why do you lower yourself to come here and bother with us ?Confused
Oh yes.  Thats right. So you can put us all down and make yourself look smart.  LOL
Go join Mensa FF$ and see how you fare.  Thumbs Down
You crack me up  !LOL


Well no actually, just Doc who he makes look foolish Embarrassed  Taken over from 3BM who got bored with doing the same, was no challenge for him LOL

And by the way Doc is the one who calls everyone idiots, low Iq and countless other insults, not Rusty.

Take off those rose coloured glasses
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Dec 2018 at 9:33am
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

I prayed for you at Christmas Mass ... but then I pray for all of those less fortunate, every year. 

... I guess it's true, God does work in mysterious ways.


You went to Christmas Mass  , come on nobody believes that. Or if you did it would be to abuse the priest.

Less fortunate ,you really are the PERSONIFICATION of repugnant nastiness, does anyone actually like you ? Confused
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rust what is going to the happen to the high rise apartment living now that one in Sydney is near collapse?

will be able to buy dirt cheap.

problem will be, who will live in it, let alone rent itLOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Dec 2018 at 1:09pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Hey aa, have you noticed that whilst the Mensa wannabe argues with everything I have to say - but never actually argues the points that I make or the maths or comes up with any alternative outcomes or costs of the labor policies - he NEVER disputes ANYTHING that a self-confessed liar like CNNPT has to say on a range of subjects ... it's like he is auditioning to be Whale's very own mini-me! Wink

The problem is, that I think he has actually convinced himself that his irrational babbling means something that is remotely relevant when it is just blithering nonsense ...WackoLOL

Hey big guy, don’t get so down on yourself, I totally agree with your estimate that property values will still double over a 10 year period, under ALP policies.
An increase in values nationwide of $7 TRILLION !!!

Tell you what Doc, as soon as PT starts to quote musings from nobodies like your mate “Bushy” and promotes them as credible, then I’ll hook him to him as well.....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Dec 2018 at 1:56pm
Originally posted by Isaac soloman Isaac soloman wrote:

rust what is going to the happen to the high rise apartment living now that one in Sydney is near collapse?

will be able to buy dirt cheap.

problem will be, who will live in it, let alone rent itLOL



The skilled ( imported ) workers would fit in there somewhere.

     Has been said recent that tradie's would soon join those other thieves
( Lawyers , Doctors etc )   as unaffordable.

     NEVER BUY OFF THE PLAN, AYE
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