Chris Waller

Overseer wrote: Fess up bradjm & PMD. Your on the Waterhouse payroll aren't you.

No I lease a pub on the Fraser Coast hobby breed a few slow horses sell some at ready to run sale lease out the odd one.

I did race one we bred in partnership until just recently but pulled the pin after a blowup with trainer, let's just say he was pig headed about giving the ride to a relative who's record on the horse read 1 3rd of 4 as fav as her best result

Munce one ride one win McMahon 1 ride 1 win by 8l on.a heavy 9 at 3rd start but apparently she's not a wet tracker and only got one start on a soft track.

You want to talk about kissed trainers I've got a few stories

That's my extent of involvement

Waller has a presence in Melb and will be sending horses to Brisbane.

The table above shows Waller's strike rate in Victoria (metro races) which is much higher than his strike rate in Sydney.

In Victoria, he does not have the capacity (at this stage) to have multiple runners in a race. Put simply, multiple runners in one race can only lower your strike rate.

Oh, and by the way, his strike rate and prize money is better in Victoria than all the other trainers listed.

Pardon_My_Dust wrote: Sunline wrote: kav you're on the persian rugs mate. It's you who needs the maths lesson. Let me break it down for you. Yes, you are right, whether he has 6 horses in 6 races and 1 wins, or 6 horses in the 1 race and 1 wins, his strikerate is the same. But, the key but, is if he has 6 horses in 6 races he has the chance to win 6 times. If he has all 6 horses in the one race, before the race has even begun, the best his strikerate can be by the end of the race is 1 in 6. Whereas with 6 in 6 races he can achieve up to 100%. If you can't understand that then we should all give up and stop debating maths and get back to racing. But if he has six horses in the race of a field of 10 he has a six in ten chance of winning it (possibly more). The correct way to judge Waller is by average wins per race, not win aggregate. It's his own problem if he has 6 hoses and one live chance (which is often the case).

Wow, this is proving difficult.

Sunline wrote: Pardon_My_Dust wrote: Sunline wrote: kav you're on the persian rugs mate. It's you who needs the maths lesson. Let me break it down for you. Yes, you are right, whether he has 6 horses in 6 races and 1 wins, or 6 horses in the 1 race and 1 wins, his strikerate is the same. But, the key but, is if he has 6 horses in 6 races he has the chance to win 6 times. If he has all 6 horses in the one race, before the race has even begun, the best his strikerate can be by the end of the race is 1 in 6. Whereas with 6 in 6 races he can achieve up to 100%. If you can't understand that then we should all give up and stop debating maths and get back to racing. But if he has six horses in the race of a field of 10 he has a six in ten chance of winning it (possibly more). The correct way to judge Waller is by average wins per race, not win aggregate. It's his own problem if he has 6 hoses and one live chance (which is often the case). Wow, this is proving difficult.   We're not talking about the hypothetical probability of him winning a given race! No matter how many are in that one race, the best his strikerate can be with 6 runners in it is 1 in 6 if he wins it with one of them. Whereas if he has each of those 6 in different races he can ultimately achieve up to 100% strikerate if they all win.   Can't you understand?  It really is simple. Multiple horses in a race, particularly when you have three four and more, ruin your strikerate. It's mostly the Gai lovers like you that point to his strikerate because it's all you've got. It means nothing though.

The table as posted is this seasons premiership to date - IE 1st August 2013 to today. Needless to say he is having a great year in Melbourne.
He only had 10 winners the previous season. Hope that clarifies it for you.

Sunline wrote: Pardon_My_Dust wrote: Sunline wrote: kav you're on the persian rugs mate. It's you who needs the maths lesson. Let me break it down for you. Yes, you are right, whether he has 6 horses in 6 races and 1 wins, or 6 horses in the 1 race and 1 wins, his strikerate is the same. But, the key but, is if he has 6 horses in 6 races he has the chance to win 6 times. If he has all 6 horses in the one race, before the race has even begun, the best his strikerate can be by the end of the race is 1 in 6. Whereas with 6 in 6 races he can achieve up to 100%. If you can't understand that then we should all give up and stop debating maths and get back to racing. But if he has six horses in the race of a field of 10 he has a six in ten chance of winning it (possibly more). The correct way to judge Waller is by average wins per race, not win aggregate. It's his own problem if he has 6 hoses and one live chance (which is often the case). Wow, this is proving difficult.   We're not talking about the hypothetical probability of him winning a given race! No matter how many are in that one race, the best his strikerate can be with 6 runners in it is 1 in 6 if he wins it with one of them. Whereas if he has each of those 6 in different races he can ultimately achieve up to 100% strikerate if they all win.   Can't you understand?  It really is simple. Multiple horses in a race, particularly when you have three four and more, ruin your strikerate. It's mostly the Gai lovers like you that point to his strikerate because it's all you've got. It means nothing though.

Maths is my forte and how I make my living. The Maths say he is under-performing Sunline. I have no alliance with any stable and don't have any favourites.

Trainers don't train for punters. They train for owners. Waller races his horses and that's what most owners want as it's why they pay ridiculously high bills.

Sunline, You are again missing the point. They are both under-performing when it comes to expected outcomes. They should have higher strike rates than they do considering their starters start at shorter odds.

Phelan Ready must have been a disaster for his owners on that theory.

Sunline, I never said that. I said on a whole if he can't turn a profit overall, then overall most horses would fail to cover there training fees and purchase costs. You pull Phelan Ready as an example but not every horse can win a MM and Slipper. In fact not many win one of them. 

No, I pulled Phelan Ready because he's one of the most unprofitable racehorses in history from a punting perspective but has netted his owners millions. It is one of many examples of a horse that does very well for his owners but not so good for punters if you have a dollar on every start.

I don't think you touched it when it was raised, but can you explain why his strike rate is so much higher in Melbourne, where he rarely has multiple runners ... mathematically ...?

... just as I suspected, superior strike rate where he has less multiple runners - rest my case